by Travis Johnson, Stock Gumshoe | March 19, 2021 5:15 pm
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Source URL: https://www.stockgumshoe.com/2021/03/friday-file-annual-review-complete-plus-another-buy-for-the-lock-box/
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Thanks Travis. Always look forward to your Friday review!
Re: TIPT, is it still worth entering after the most recent uptick?
Have a great weekend!
I think it’s worth waiting for the pop to come off a bit, $8 makes sense to me still… though it is still at a discount to book, so a lot depends on how the Fortegra IPO is received.
with interest rates close to 0% until 2023 and with next year’s low estimate of revenue being 54% above this year’s (albeit few analysts), i am with you in DFH 🙂
but is DFH now part of the ” lockbox portfolio” going with the same dollar amount?
Do you intend to allocate each position an equal size (5 x 20 = 100k) or instead, that may build up in steps to get some opportunities along the way (with some of its stocks)?
This is something that I didn’t catch clearly from last presentation..
I still own DFH in my regular portfolio and may buy or sell there… this new project is 20 companies, a five year lockup, and $5,000 each. All positions the same size to start. Just two picks in there so far.
I haven’t written much about it yet, but will get into more detail and try to settle on a name soon 🙂
Hello Travis, new to Gumshoe and absolutely love learning from you! Curious, what is your growth target for the new 20/ 5 year program?
Don’t have one. I’ll be picking stocks that have huge potential, but some of them will end up being duds… I’ll be disappointed if they don’t beat the market averages, but I don’t have a target.
Money map press ?? Five stocks entering HYPERDRIVE ? After the speal they wanted like 1700 for the 5 STOCKS pics …picked by Shah Gilani ,, anyone here of this one ? Thanks Travis…maybe this has been posted before ?
So this new project consists of $5K investments into a SCORE of companies for a PENTAD lockup duration totaling a KILO BORDEN investment of $100K. Maybe there is a name in there somewhere?
Yea, the Friday file which takes me a few hours on an off to read, ends with more articles to read…. Seriously though, I appreciate the constant commentary on how to maintain a sense of valuation in these times.
Suggestion for speculative stock portfolio name: pandora’s box or pandora portfolio. You should have a naming ’contest’ 😉
Thanks so much for tons of great content, meticulous research and demystification of those ’magic plays’ running in the financial advisory business! Looking forward to the launch of your alt portfolio!
I agree with you. We should have a naming contest. Someone suggested SG Innovations last week, and your two ideas have merit too. I don’t even mind Travis’ temporary moniker of “lockbox portfolio”. The best I can come up with is the Dream Team Portfolio, which I’ll be the first to admit is probably a dud. Maybe we should all flood Travis’ mailbox with ideas to help him out. A nice portrait of our favorite sleuth hiding under his fedora and bandana would be a fantastic prize for the winning idea.
How about the “Aging Barrel” ….like a fine wine it takes time to reach its full potential….
Excellent! A 20-year whisky often turns out quite nice…
I’m old fashioned enough to think that a name should be descriptive, not just sound dreamy. I was planning to comment that “Lockbox” sounds just fine, (though I’m a bit late now). But mcarey’s “Aging Barrel” sounds pretty good too!
We CERTAINLY don’t want it to sound like one of those silly teaser headlines!
In a soft of divination (out of smoke) here some weird suggestions
The Clockwork cache
Telescopic value
Oculus box
Bravo portfolio
Seeking Theta
Priveé 20
Braveheart
Fusion portfolio
..
Thanks! Maybe I should call I “Divination out of Smoke” 🙂
A little late here but have to stymy anything ‘bravo’ ….. and offer “The Crypt” …… or maybe “the Chastity Belt” …. nah. Lock Box it should be.
Paying homage to that bygone era when people hid their physical securities in coffee cans and buried them in the backyard or hid them in an unfinished portion of the basement, my suggestion for the lockbox name is:
5-Year Coffee Can Brew, or simply Coffee Can Portfolio
a friend of mine has a dad who finally showed him where all the coffee cans are buried .. you could call it the backyard investment portfolio ..
I’m new and looking for fastest way to weed out 5 great companies to invest in for growth ,seeing what area of stock gum shoe is best to read up on ..any answers is appreciated thank you
I’m more of a diversifier than a weeder, a lot of the best growth stocks I own are in a “hold” area for me — the ones that jump out at the moment that are both growth-focused and still merit a “buy” at today’s prices for me are AVLR, AMZN, DFH, EA, FSLY, GAN and INTZ — a wide variety of risk profiles and growth potential in that bunch.
I’ve been stopped out 5 times over the last couple years with GAN, each time lower and then I go back in. This time I have to move on and take my lumps.
Ouch, hope whatever you’re into next works out for you. We each need to have some kind of discipline for our trading, and it’s very personal what that discipline might be. I haven’t been stopped out of GAN, but did add a little today.
Love reading your stuff!! Awesome call on TIPt. My only regret is not buying more.
The enthusiasm is coming off a bit, so we may drift down further, we’ll see — we’re back below my “25% discount to book value” line in the $7s now. No further update from Fortegra on the IPO yet or any SEC response to the S-1, the next move for TIPT probably depends mostly on how that IPO is received by investors, assuming it happens at some point in the next few weeks (sometimes it takes longer than that), and how it trades once public — not at all a sexy or exciting company, so it’s awfully hard to guess how that will go.
I don’t yet understand how selling off the more valuable subsidiary, Fortegra, is going to increase Tiptree’s value – other than to generate some temporary excitement. Who’s going to own Fortegra? It seems like that would be the NEW ipo buyers. Does Tipt plan to retain some of the new shares? Otherwise, it seems Tipt would be left with the LESS valuable part (plus some cash).
Obviously, I should go read the S-1 if I was going to do anything. But I usually just hold through the whole thing…
They’re not selling their shares, they’re issuing new shares — so they will be diluted somewhat, but Fortegra will also end up with $100 million in growth capital and the hope is that Tiptree’s controlling ownership will be worth more. We’ll see.
Ok, so Tiptree DOES plan to retain a controlling interest. Now i got it – Thanks!
For who is interested, there is this Global X Video Games & Esports ETF that holds gaming stocks or with related exposure and, unlike others in the sector, e.g. GAMR, is not exposed to GameStop (GME) speculatation – GMR holds 10% of GME currently, up from 1% few months ago!
What is the difference in multi market listed companies, like AOI.TO/AOIFF/AOI.SS.
In general, there’s usually no difference — same share, same company, usually different currency. The biggest difference in buying or selling is that the home listing (AOI.TO in this case) is usually easier to trade and more likely to be at a fair price because that’s where most of the trading volume is.
Liquidity doesn’t always matter that much when buying, if you’re a patient and small investor… but it can often make a big difference when selling, especially if you want to sell in a hurry.
Thank you for the response. Keep up the great work.
Trade Note: Another one for the Lock Box
I’ll share some more detailed thoughts on this one tomorrow in the Friday File, but since a limit order did get triggered and a new position was added to my “lock box” portfolio today, I do need to let you know… the third position in that lock box portfolio is now Goosehead Insurance (GSHD).
How does it meet the criteria? It’s below $10 billion in market cap, has a huge market to grow into as they go national and recruit new franchisee brokers and agencies, and they have an extremely scalable model for incentivizing franchisees with high commissions on initial sales but a much lower commission on renewals. Goosehead takes over the maintenance of customers, including customer service and renewals, and lets agents and brokers be entrepreneurial and build their business with new customer acquisition… which means that margins improve dramatically as new franchisees “age” into the system. It’s expensive still, even after this drop, but I love the revenue flywheel — this goes in right around my “buy up to” price of $108, at $108.70, and I actually have a small order in for my regular Real Money Portfolio holdings in Goosehead as well, so it’s possible I’ll add a little more if that triggers.
Is it possible to share the Lockbox entries separately in Friday File? I see this note that its #3 in that list and I’m trying to figure out what the other two are? I really love this idea of lockbox and thinking of doing it as well but opening an account in a different brokerage and not checking until multiple years later
They’re in the Real Money Portfolio, just have to scroll down a bit. I’ll try to come up with a clearer way to describe and separate them.
The other two currently in the LockBox are SDGR & DFH.
Hi Travis, What is the best way to create a Limit order for such buys. If I would have created a GTC Limit order for GSHD at $108 based on your suggested price, it may not have triggered today if the lowest was $108.7. Do you keep some ‘buffer’ in your limit orders? if yes, how much?
This one was actually a limit order at 108.75, if I remember correctly, just to get the math to work at $5,000 precisely. Dumb luck, frankly, though it’s a volatile stock and it may fall below that level again. I hope so.
I am merely a stock dabbler. Comparing your GSHD buy with Fidelity’s Equity Score rating of 0.9 out of 10, why such a big difference?
No idea what Fidelity’s Equity Score is derived from, sorry. GSHD is certainly not attractively valued on current financials (35X trailing revenue, 200X trailing earnings), so that could easily be a disconnect. This is one I’m buying for what it could be in five years, not what it is today.
Thanks for your reply. I am not questioning your opinion; primarily trying to determine what the Equity Summary Score is worth as an investment tool since it is available to me as a feature of my 401K plan administrator. I realize I may appear to be presenting myself as a naive simpleton, but I’m sure your comments could help others in my situation. By the way I am 75 and have been retired for 7 years.
According to the Fidelity Website the Equity Summary Score is provided by “Starmine from Refinitiv.” Its brief description is:
The Equity Summary Score is an accuracy-weighted sentiment derived from the ratings of independent research providers on Fidelity.com. It uses the past relative accuracy of the providers in determining the emphasis placed on any individual opinion.
A much more detailed description of the methodology used is on the Fidelity website.
Here are the individual ratings for GSHD from the independent firms along with the firms relative Accuracy score
Ford Equity Research 98% accuracy Neutral opinion
ISS-EVA 97% accuracy Sell
McLean Capital Management 88% accuracy Neutral
Zacks Investment Research, Inc 79% accuracy Underperform
Refinitiv/Verus 62% accuracy Buy
Would be great to get your take on the big dip GAN is taking after 2020 earnings report. Seems to me that 2021 revenue projections look quite good and not seeing any other red flags to margin. Buying opportunity or am I missing something?
Just posted my thoughts in this week’s Friday File. Short answer, I think this is about as good as the valuation has looked since I first bought, and I added a little bit.
Hi Travis,
Can you let me know the buy / entry price for SDGR
$69.82 is what I paid.