Friday File: Annual Review Complete, plus another buy for the Lock Box

by Travis Johnson, Stock Gumshoe | March 19, 2021 5:15 pm

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Source URL: https://www.stockgumshoe.com/2021/03/friday-file-annual-review-complete-plus-another-buy-for-the-lock-box/


47 responses to “Friday File: Annual Review Complete, plus another buy for the Lock Box”

  1. abhinavsukumar says:

    Thanks Travis. Always look forward to your Friday review!
    Re: TIPT, is it still worth entering after the most recent uptick?

    Have a great weekend!

  2. rederijkers says:

    with interest rates close to 0% until 2023 and with next year’s low estimate of revenue being 54% above this year’s (albeit few analysts), i am with you in DFH 🙂

  3. lottifab says:

    but is DFH now part of the ” lockbox portfolio” going with the same dollar amount?
    Do you intend to allocate each position an equal size (5 x 20 = 100k) or instead, that may build up in steps to get some opportunities along the way (with some of its stocks)?
    This is something that I didn’t catch clearly from last presentation..

  4. beachwind says:

    Yea, the Friday file which takes me a few hours on an off to read, ends with more articles to read…. Seriously though, I appreciate the constant commentary on how to maintain a sense of valuation in these times.

  5. ode9234 says:

    Suggestion for speculative stock portfolio name: pandora’s box or pandora portfolio. You should have a naming ’contest’ 😉
    Thanks so much for tons of great content, meticulous research and demystification of those ’magic plays’ running in the financial advisory business! Looking forward to the launch of your alt portfolio!

  6. bunion132 says:

    Paying homage to that bygone era when people hid their physical securities in coffee cans and buried them in the backyard or hid them in an unfinished portion of the basement, my suggestion for the lockbox name is:

    5-Year Coffee Can Brew, or simply Coffee Can Portfolio

  7. freedom11 says:

    I’m new and looking for fastest way to weed out 5 great companies to invest in for growth ,seeing what area of stock gum shoe is best to read up on ..any answers is appreciated thank you

  8. nanj0001 says:

    Love reading your stuff!! Awesome call on TIPt. My only regret is not buying more.

  9. viktor69 says:

    For who is interested, there is this Global X Video Games & Esports ETF that holds gaming stocks or with related exposure and, unlike others in the sector, e.g. GAMR, is not exposed to GameStop (GME) speculatation – GMR holds 10% of GME currently, up from 1% few months ago!

  10. dauminait says:

    What is the difference in multi market listed companies, like AOI.TO/AOIFF/AOI.SS.

  11. Travis Johnson, Stock Gumshoe says:

    Trade Note: Another one for the Lock Box

    I’ll share some more detailed thoughts on this one tomorrow in the Friday File, but since a limit order did get triggered and a new position was added to my “lock box” portfolio today, I do need to let you know… the third position in that lock box portfolio is now Goosehead Insurance (GSHD).

    How does it meet the criteria? It’s below $10 billion in market cap, has a huge market to grow into as they go national and recruit new franchisee brokers and agencies, and they have an extremely scalable model for incentivizing franchisees with high commissions on initial sales but a much lower commission on renewals. Goosehead takes over the maintenance of customers, including customer service and renewals, and lets agents and brokers be entrepreneurial and build their business with new customer acquisition… which means that margins improve dramatically as new franchisees “age” into the system. It’s expensive still, even after this drop, but I love the revenue flywheel — this goes in right around my “buy up to” price of $108, at $108.70, and I actually have a small order in for my regular Real Money Portfolio holdings in Goosehead as well, so it’s possible I’ll add a little more if that triggers.

  12. rcwinton says:

    I am merely a stock dabbler. Comparing your GSHD buy with Fidelity’s Equity Score rating of 0.9 out of 10, why such a big difference?

  13. rcwinton says:

    Thanks for your reply. I am not questioning your opinion; primarily trying to determine what the Equity Summary Score is worth as an investment tool since it is available to me as a feature of my 401K plan administrator. I realize I may appear to be presenting myself as a naive simpleton, but I’m sure your comments could help others in my situation. By the way I am 75 and have been retired for 7 years.

    According to the Fidelity Website the Equity Summary Score is provided by “Starmine from Refinitiv.” Its brief description is:
    The Equity Summary Score is an accuracy-weighted sentiment derived from the ratings of independent research providers on Fidelity.com. It uses the past relative accuracy of the providers in determining the emphasis placed on any individual opinion.

    A much more detailed description of the methodology used is on the Fidelity website.

    Here are the individual ratings for GSHD from the independent firms along with the firms relative Accuracy score

    Ford Equity Research 98% accuracy Neutral opinion

    ISS-EVA 97% accuracy Sell

    McLean Capital Management 88% accuracy Neutral

    Zacks Investment Research, Inc 79% accuracy Underperform

    Refinitiv/Verus 62% accuracy Buy

  14. daj321 says:

    Would be great to get your take on the big dip GAN is taking after 2020 earnings report. Seems to me that 2021 revenue projections look quite good and not seeing any other red flags to margin. Buying opportunity or am I missing something?

  15. rajk78 says:

    Hi Travis,
    Can you let me know the buy / entry price for SDGR

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