by Travis Johnson, Stock Gumshoe | March 26, 2021 5:30 pm
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Source URL: https://www.stockgumshoe.com/2021/03/friday-file-goose-in-the-box/
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Thank you Travis. What would you consider as a reasonable buy-in price for MELI?
Thanks for another excellent Friday File. You wrote about the US keeping cash, and one thing about having the US dollar, is that it is used as the only currency in Ecuador and Panama. Ecuador is an almost totally cash society, where credit cards are only accepted at the big box stores, or some merchants who do accept cards charge a 5% premium. They also have their own dollar coins, which of course are not accepted in the US.
Excellent analysis as usual Travis.
Among GAN, Draftkings and PDYPF, am I right that you think GAN is a better value now?
Sadly I bought GAN yesterday before the earning came out. I have been wanting to add a bit more in this sector. PDYPF seems to be ridiculously overpriced. I have Draftkings but I am not opposed to add more. Or perhaps the ETF BETZ will capture the sector? Appreciate your take on this.
Flutter and Draft Kings are the brand leaders, by a long shot, and sometimes those stocks in fast-growing industries are worth owning even if you have to go a few years out to justify the valuation. But yes, GAN and Kambi are the only stocks I own in that sector right now, and I think GAN’s valuation is appealing.
Thanks Travis. I have quite a few shares of GAN. Will check out the other 2.
Crypto by Eric Wade
Trade Note:
As I mentioned above, I had limit orders in for small additions to my positions in Roku (ROKU) and Goosehead Insurance (GSHD). Those limit orders both triggered.
Roku was small enough that it would not have triggered a Trade Note normally, but the Goosehead trade was slightly larger (that trade was almost 0.25% of the the portfolio, the threshold for a Trade Note is 0.1%), so I do need to provide notice.
Details:
ROKU position increased by about 3% at $299.99
GSHD position increased by about 35% at $108
There was also one new stop loss level hit in the Real Money Portfolio, FYI, Boston Omaha triggered a stop at about $35 — I did not sell, I consider this one to have long-term compounding potential and am not likely to sell unless I disagree with a major strategy or the company changes in a big way, but I do think it’s worth buying at around 2X book (which would be about $28) … they reported yesterday, and I expect the stock reaction is more of a “sell the news” move from traders who had gotten excited about the stock as the Motley Fool and others covered it in the past month or two, but didn’t really know much about the company or its likely slow-growth trajectory (not unlike the spike the shares had in late 2017, when there was first excitement and WSJ coverage about one of the BOMN CEO’s familial relationship with Warren Buffett). If I were inclined to be nimble I’d probably sell some and look to buy it back 20-30% lower, but there’s no guarantee it will fall that far and I’m unlikely to be perfect in my timing on this one, so I’ll let it sit as a long-term compounder while we wait to see what these guys can build. And whether they are able to find a target for Yellowstone Acquisition.
Hi Travis, Could you please tell us what the news today means, that BOMN has filed with the SEC for mixed shelf? I see they’re also publicly offering another 2 million stocks. I suppose that will likely further deflate the stock’s near term value?
BOSTON OMAHA CORP FILES FOR MIXED SHELF ; SIZE NOT DISCLOSED – SEC FILING
Source: (https://bit.ly/3df79bq)
Thank you.
Yep, the hedge funds run by the two CEOs are selling some shares on behalf of (other) shareholders of those funds (about a million) and the company itself is selling about two million shares to raise capital for more investment, probably in more billboards or expansion of the rural broadband projects.
Will go into a little more detail on Friday, but this is roughly 8% dilution and insider selling and dilutive offerings are generally poorly received in the short term. The co-CEOs are not selling a meaningful amount personally, so that’s encouraging for me, and the stock got pretty richly valued in the run up in recent months so perhaps it will get back down to a reasonable buy area now (I’m still looking for about $28, and consider this a long-term hold, but it was at $15 just a few months ago — sentiment can change quickly with a new influx of investors and story chasers, which is what seemed to happen with BOMN thanks to Yellowstone, Dream Finders and some new Motley Fool attention).
Hi Travis, any idea what is happening with INTZ? It just shot up 20% today, and some 16% in last 15 minutes.
My Fidelity feed for INTZ is showing that they signed an agreement with a company that has 46,000 employees to protect that company’s network with its Intrusion Shield. And that could be the reason.
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/intrusion-announces-leading-global-cpg-164500186.html
Yes, that’s a strong reaction to the positive news of a deal with Kimberly-Clark (KMB).
This doesn’t mean the risk is gone, but it’s a good endorsement that they made a deal with a large company, and that company let them use their name as a customer. I would be surprised if the deal was for all KMB customers and at full price, since it’s really their first big named customer (they probably gave them a deal), but IF it were at their retail price ($20/month per seat) that would be $11 million a year in ARR. Easily manageable for KMB, which spends more than $3.5 billion a year on SG&A, but that’s probably a bit much to hope for.
Still, this is a nice public endorsement of the product, and that will make the next sales call a lot easier. I micro-dosed a little more into the shares on the news today, though it remains a small position. (A small buy, less than 0.1% of the portfolio, so that doesn’t generate a formal Trade Note… but since you asked). I still think it’s a rational speculation below $30.