Spot Lumber has crashed from a high of $1,686 11 days ago to $1,264 today, a 25% drop. Stocks such as Weyerhaeuser (WY) are sliding down slightly. Several weeks ago I left a note here about the massive re-hiring of lumber mill workers who were laid off due to covid, thus causing lumber prices to start dropping as supply finally catches up with demand. My view is that lumber stocks have peaked and the bubble is over.
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The bubble of short supply and huge demand may be over but it looks like new housing and remodels are still growing, so what’s the best move to make in the market? WY is still about double from it’s March 2020 low (is dropping today) however will they be able to keep revenue strong as their mills get back up to 100%? One area to watch is whether the 9% tariff drops further and if inflation goes higher. One will drop the price and the other raise it so they could cancel each other out.