by Travis Johnson, Stock Gumshoe | June 11, 2021 4:46 pm
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Source URL: https://www.stockgumshoe.com/2021/06/friday-file-adtech-to-the-lock-box/
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It seems there is a change at Amazon, or at least with Jeff Bezos: Jeff Bezos’ recent divorce this past April. Jeff Bezos stepping down as CEO on July 5. Jeff Bezos taking a Blue Origins flight into space on July 20th.
Is Jeff Bezos selling shares of Amazon? If Jeff Bezos is selling shares, I would appreciate getting thoughts why it is a good idea to “microdose” and buy more shares of Amazon?
Bezos has been selling billions of dollars worth of AMZN shares for years, that’s where the money to start his own Space program came from.
Personally, I would generally put the mega caps in a category where C-suite or founder buying or selling means pretty much nothing at all. Those executives have reached a point where money has no real meaning, the companies are established and have momentum of their own as founders tend to step back or find other priorities, and they generally own so many billions of dollars of shares that it’s hard to apply any real logic to their intentions.
I don’t know whether it’s a good idea for anyone else to buy Amazon, but I can find few large companies as dominant or reasonably valued, and I tend to add a little more every couple months as long as it’s in my buying range.
Chewy
I heard Jim Cramer tonight and he is all in on Chewy, so after reading your article which makes the case for adding Chewy to my portfolio . Thanks for all you do ! Tom
Travis, what are your thoughts on the inflation numbers that came out this week? It looks like the equity markets ignored them.
I’ll ignore them, too, for the most part. Can’t really do anything but be a little bit prepared, in my case with some diversification and exposure to sectors that I expect to hold up in inflationary times (commodities, real estate, strong brands, royalties), and stick to picking good companies who I think can stand the tests the future will bring. It’s never the devil you see coming that kills a bull market — and I’m rarely going to get macro timing correct, that’s mostly luck, so I try to be careful not to bet too much on how worried I feel about the possibility of runaway inflation. The opportunity costs of being off by a year or two on a big market turn are often high enough that the reward for being eventually proven correct ends up being a Pyrrhic victory.
Hi Travis, would you mind to share some thoughts on why you chose PUBM over MGNI? MGNI gets a lot of praise in the ad industry and PUBM on the other end often is accused of making money on spider bots and “just being a cookie cutter SSP”. Of course this should be taken with a grain of salt but it makes me tend to MGNI – especially after their SPOTX acquisition that gives them access to a lot of great talent and new clients.
Dreamfinders seemed more like a crash than a dip to me. Back to where I started in a flash.
Dealing with the emotion caused by price movements is the hardest and most important part of investing — successful investors aren’t usually smarter or better educated than others, they just have a better handle on their emotions and their behavior. They handle the fear/greed swings better than other people and worry less about being part of the crowd or appearing smart to other people. And importantly, they resist the urge to react to every price movement or headline.
Nothing really happened with the company in the last month — there was no more reason for the stock to surge 20% than to give up those gains, all we can really do with long-term investments is try to tune out the noise, wait for our price, and be patient as the company hopefully grows to become better than we imagine.
No emotion. No headlines either. Never like seeing a weekly candle like that on a stick I own.
As evidenced similarly by PUBM up 8% today on no news unless you have become a market driver Travis ;-). I feel like there is a huge difference between volatility and direction. The direction of a stock up or down determines what will happen to the investment as a profit or loss but the volatility of a stock helps the patient, consistent and calm investor magnify winners or lessen the losers.
Competition in the pet food industry is stiff and intensifying. Do you expect any consolidation to happen anytime soon? Could CHWY look for some target? They seem to have > $600M in cash that could find itself idle if CHWY maintains/improves profitability.
I would love to see CHWY buy out TRUP and increase the scope of services they can offer. Feed them, clothe them, insure them.
As always, an excellent analysis Travis
I love Chewy!
Big announcement from Google today delaying deprecation of third party cookies until 2023 driving adtech up (PUBM, TTD..). https://www.cnet.com/news/google-delays-chromes-cookie-blocking-privacy-plan-by-nearly-2-years/
Link above to the Forbes article is wrong, it goes to a Wired article on Fastly.
@Travis Fastly (lockbox pick) just reported earnings and is current down aftermarket about 20%. Can you go over your thoughts of the earnings numbers? Also Lemonade was another one you’ve been keeping an eye on, would love your thoughts on LMND as well. Both are down quite a bit in afterhours. Lastly, I’ve been eyeing ETSY for quite sometime, they just reported as well with revenue coming in beating estimates (but down afterhours). Am really itching to start a position here.
Fastly’s not in the Lock Box portfolio, but it is in my regular portfolio — and they certainly did disappoint this evening. I’ll have some thoughts on that probably tomorrow, have to chew on it a bit more. Haven’t had a chance to look at Lemonade or Etsy lately.
Ah, thanks for replying so quickly. I was reading fast and misunderstood by the placement of the asterisks.
Perfect, will wait for your write up. I was listening in on their earnings call. The CEO was pretty optimistic on their company outlook for the next 3-5 years, he indicated their customers are all asking for more security and a faster network. He also briefly went into their 1B cash position.
nibbled on some shares after listening in on the earnings call.
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