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Doc Gumshoe on masks, Alzheimer's Disease, brain cancer and more...

Before I launch into the topics of the day, I am going to share with you an opinion piece about the recent CDC guidelines. I find myself in complete concurrence with this piece, which was posted a few weeks ago on MedPage Today, a medical website that is a very helpful source of information for Doc Gumshoe. The author of this piece, Lawrence O. Gostin, is a University Professor at Georgetown University, where he is a professor of medicine and the founding chair of the O’Neil Institute for National and Global Health Law. He is also a professor of public health at Johns Hopkins, and the director of the WHO Center on National and Global Health Law.  I would have agreed with Professor Gostin’s views even if he had not had such sterling credentials.

What Was CDC Thinking With Its New Mask Guidance?

“This opinion piece will be sharply critical of the new CDC guidance on masking for individuals who have been fully vaccinated against COVID-19, so I want to begin by saying the agency has been, and remains, the envy of the world. There’s good reason why China, Korea, Europe, and Africa all named their public health agencies after the CDC.When CDC speaks, scientists fall behind in lockstep, and the public trusts and follows its advice.

But not this time. Its mask guidance has been greeted by scientists and the public alike as confusing, inconsistent, and frankly, unsupported by scientific evidence. I’ll explain why.

The CDC has lurched from over-caution to abandoning all caution. Just over 2 weeks ago, the CDC recommended universal masking in indoor spaces. The nation’s top health officials pleaded with the public to wear masks or face dire consequences. Now CDC states that the fully vaccinated “can resume activities that you did prior to the pandemic” without wearing a mask or distancing. In other words, CDC gave a bright green light to return to normal — indoor dining, shopping, and resumption of schools, colleges, and workplaces. It seems a bit premature to declare victory.

You might think there were new, important scientific findings justifying such a dramatic shift — there weren’t. Vaccines are almost flawless at preventing serious disease and death, and they do significantly reduce SARS-CoV-2 transmission. But we knew that weeks ago. The U.S. has vaccinated more people in the last several weeks, but we’ve been on track to do that for quite some time. And remember, CDC guidance doesn’t just apply to affluent zip codes with high vaccination rates. It applies equally to  areas that have very low coverage.  And in such a mobile society as ours, there will be lots of travel to all areas of the country.

My supposition is that CDC prematurely recommended “back to normal” because it wanted to give hesitant people an incentive to get vaccinated. But there is no behavioral evidence that giving more freedom to vaccinated people will encourage more to be vaccinated. Why? First of all, most Americans won’t even perceive CDC’s new advice as “vaccine” guidance, but rather as “mask” guidance. We see that in all the headlines, and many states are now dismantling, or considering removing, their mask mandates. But there’s more: Individuals opposed to vaccines are just as likely (maybe even more likely) to just take off their masks as they are to get a jab.

There is a galling disconnect in federal policy on COVID-19. CDC is telling states, the private sector, and the public that it is vital to differentiate between the vaccinated and the unvaccinated. But at the same time, the Biden administration has made that all but impossible. The administration stubbornly refuses to offer any way to demonstrate proof of vaccination. Other places like the European Union and Israel have successfully used digital health passes (so-called “vaccine passports”) as a way to ensure a safe return to normal. Will anyone have confidence being in a restaurant, mall, church, or gym if they’re not sure that all of the maskless people crowding around are fully vaccinated?

So, what will be the outcome of the CDC’s new guidance? It’s highly likely that both vaccinated and unvaccinated individuals will throw away their masks. < This poses a significant risk of a surge of cases and hospitalizations. Over 60% of Americansare still not fully vaccinated.

Many immunocompromised people are vulnerable eve>n if fully vaccinated because they can’t mount a full — or often any — immune response. Children under 12 years old aren’t eligible for vaccination. All these groups remain at risk. If even one unvaccinated person is in an indoor crowded space without a mask, it poses a risk of spread.

And just look at the CDC website. It actually contains joyful images of unmasked people happily living their lives. But the images are deeply troubling. One is a group of unmasked adults and children playing. But wait, the children can’t get a vaccine. Another is a gym class, but these have caused major super-spreader events. Yet another photo shows a person shopping without a mask, but what about the supermarket worker who may not be vaccinated or has undergone cancer therapy?

This is why a public health agency like the CDC has to take a population approach. The impact of their new guidance on the public is predictable. But what I foresee isn’t a surge in hesitant people now eager to get the jab. I see unvaccinated people feeling they have a license to throw away the masks they have always disliked. What behavioral scientists understand is that culture and peers have major influences on how we behave. If everyone around you is wearing a mask and distancing, it is likely you will. But if many, or even most people, are maskless, you will remove your mask as well. People won’t be making “nice” distinctions based on the CDC guidelines.

And speaking of confusing distinctions. Under the new guidance, vaccinated people must wear masks in an airport or bus station, and in a homeless shelter or prison. But they can remove their masks in a crowded restaurant or mall. And they can go to church and sing, or join a gym class with heavy breathing and shouting. How does the epidemiological evidence support all those distinctions?

I’ve worked with the CDC for decades, from the AIDS pandemic through to SARS, influenza, Ebola, and Zika. I know the staff are world class scientists and they work tirelessly for the public good. They are our modern-day heroes. It is therefore agonizing to see the erosion of public trust, first with the truly unconscionable undermining of the agency by the Trump administration. And now, feeling tugged in opposite directions by Congress and the public. We need an independent CDC with a steady hand. CDC must be guided by the science, but it also has to become a talented health communicator that gains public trust and shapes public behavior. The latter has been sadly absent during the COVID-19 pandemic.”
–Lawrence O. Gostin, JD

…and now to the questions and comments…

As I’ve said many times, Doc Gumshoe greatly values those questions or comments that point to topics that have not been explored. Mostly, I have never heard of them, as in the first one below. This came from a reader who reported that her husband is in a clinical trial of a treatment that “is showing promise for us in regards to Alzheimer’s. When he was on the “open label” he got his spark in life back. Now we are in the double blind segment and the spark has gone so I can only assume we are on the placebo. The drug is called Fasudil.”

I replied that I had never heard of Fasudil, but would check on it. How could I not? Anything showing promise in regards to Alzheimer’s is worth a look.

What do we know about Fasudil?

Fasudil has been approved in China and Japan since about 1995, where it has been used for the treatment of spasmodic constriction of cerebral arteries, a severe condition which frequently follows hemorrhage in the subarachnoid region of the brain. It is a potent inhibitor of a kinase called Rho-associated kinase isoform 2 (ROCK2), which is a potent vasoconstrictor. In other words, fasudil inhibits the agent that causes constriction of cerebral arteries. This mechanism may also improve the cognitive decline seen in stroke patients due to reduced arterial blood flow. Fasudil has also been found to be effective in the treatment of pulmonary hypertension. And there is some evidence that the drug improves memory in normal mice.

Fasudil was developed in Japan by Asahi Kasei Pharma and marketed under the name Eril. It was licensed in November 2019 to Woolsey Pharmaceuticals. At this time, fasudil has not been approved either by the FDA or by the European Medicines Association; however, the FDA has given its blessing to the clinical trial mentioned above by our reader.

The purpose of the Phase 2 clinical trial is to assess the effectiveness of oral fasudil in subjects with dementia in reducing wandering behavior and getting lost. Various other effects will be assessed, such as excess movement, cognition, memory, neuropsychiatric symptomatology, and safety and tolerability.

The potential effectiveness of fasudil in improving cognition / reversing cognitive decline is likely, at least in part, attributable to fasudil’s effectiveness in increasing blood flow in the brain by blocking the kinase that causes arterial constriction. Increased blood flow brings with it increased oxygen supply and increased neuronal activity.

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However, fasudil possesses another characteristic which may be particularly valuable in combating some of the mechanisms of Alzheimer’s disease. A recent review in a journal called Frontiers in Cellular Neuroscience points to ROCK2, which has been identified as the kinase that fasudil specifically targets. ROCK2 is an inhibitor of a physiologic activity called autophagy. Autophagy is a natural mechanism that removes unnecessary or dysfunctional components of cells. Autophagy could be a highly valuable function in removing both amyloid beta (Aβ) and tau, both of which are thought to be part of the pathology of Alzheimer’s disease. Thus, fasudil could function as an enabler of an activity that would tend to protect against Alzheimer’s. (Weber J. Front Cell Neurosci 3/15/2021 doi:10.3389/Incel 636019).

The review cited above also suggests that ROCK1 and ROCK2 may be therapeutic targets for a range of diseases and conditions, including cancer, asthma, insulin resistance, kidney failure, osteoporosis, and erectile dysfunction. Thus, acting by means of a combination of mechanisms, fasudil could be a valuable agent in the treatment of a range of diseases and conditions.

Fasudil is not the only ROCK2 inhibitor. Another one, belomusudil, is being investigated as treatment for idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis, graft versus host disease, and psoriasis. It is not entirely clear why the mechanisms of the two ROCK2 inhibitors would differ such that they target different diseases.

Woolsey Pharmaceuticals, the outfit to which fasudil has been licensed, is not a drug development company. Instead, Woolsey seeks to identify existing drugs and repurpose them for diseases for which there is a need. In particular, their focus is on neurodegenerative diseases, including Alzheimer’s, vascular dementia, amyotrophic lateral sclerosis (ALS), Parkinson’s disease, Huntington’s disease, multiple sclerosis, and others.

More about Anavex Life Sciences?

Back in February, in response to a query, Doc Gumshoe took a careful look at Anavex and its lead drug, blarcamesine. Here’s what I said at that point:

“As I am writing this, Anavex Life Sciences has received Fast Track designation from the FDA for Anavex 2-73 / blarcamesine for the treatment of Rett syndrome.   This designation followed the announcement on 15 December 2020 of a Phase 2 randomized double-blind placebo-controlled clinical trial of blarcamesine in adult female patients with Rett syndrome.   The primary endpoint of the trial was safety, and the oral liquid once-daily dose of the drug was well-tolerated.  Adverse events were similar between blarcamesine and placebo (13.3% vs. 10%).”   

Rett syndrome is one of those rare diseases that pharmaceutical companies can sometimes employ as a way into regulatory approval.   At present, there is no cure for Rett syndrome, and it can lead to severe impairment in practically everything that we human beings try to do.   Thus, if blarcamesine were determined to be an effective treatment for Rett syndrome and thereby received FDA approval, it would be a big boost in the effort to win approval for other diseases or conditions.”   

Rett syndrome is a very rare genetic disorder, affecting brain development mostly in girls, starting about the age of six months. Infants loose coordination, the capacity for speech, and use of the hands.

Anavex has another drug in the pipeline, this one designated as Anavex 3-71, which they describe as an orally-administered small molecule targeting sigma-1 and M1 muscarinic receptors that is designed to be beneficial for neurodegenerative diseases, including Alzheimer’s, Parkinson’s, and others. The company announced the opening of a Phase 1 clinical trial with Anavex 3-71 back in July 2020 and expects to be releasing pre-clinical data in the first half of 2021, which means in the next month or two. So far, Anavex 3-71 has demonstrated effects which the company describes as “disease-modifying” in transgenic mice, including cognitive deficits and amyloid and tau pathologies.

Doc Gumshoe has just a couple of comments about Anavex. First, that it is really very early days to come to any sort of conclusion about the prospects for either of their agents.And, second, that the targets of their drugs are not very different from those of other drugs, most of which have failed to live up to expectations. Both muscarinic and sigma-1 receptors have been well-studied in relation to dementia and Alzheimer’s disease. I hope that Anavex 3-71 will surprise us!

Pritumumab enters Phase 1 clinical trial for brain cancers

A Gumshoe Irregular sent this to Travis, who then forwarded it to Yours Truly, who, in turn, found it highly interesting and did some sleuthing. Here, in part, is what that Irregular said:

“I believe he [Doc Gumshoe] would be interested in a small biotech company that has a patent on a monoclonal antibody that targets brain cancer. Full disclosure: I have been long this company for about 6 years now. What started out as “friends and family” investors has progressed to a small publicly traded company. Emphasis on small. But because of the small size, I feel very connected to the company and its mission to extend lives of those afflicted with one of the deadliest cancers out there. The five-year survival rate of brain cancer is abysmal. However, the company, Nascent Biotech NBIO, recently started a Phase 1 human trial and has begun injecting patients.

While this may seem premature for me to tell you and Doc Gumshoe about a Phase 1 company, what is generally not known (due to FDA rules) is that this monoclonal antibody made it to Phase 3 testing in Japan about 20 years ago and was very successful. In fact, my understanding is that the test results from 20 years ago are still significantly better than the current standard of treatment available for brain cancer patients today. However, the Japanese company owning the patent suffered the death of one of the founding scientists and shut down the studies. There were also issues about being able to replicate the drug on a large-scale basis, because the technology to do so was not available. But it is now. Nascent Biotech has been revitalized in the U.S. and began injecting patients with Pritumumab in the last week. Non-dilutive funding was recently secured that will get the company through Phase 1 and into Phase 2.”

\Pritumumab is a natural human monoclonal antibody that works by binding to vimentin (sometimes referred to as ectodomain vimentin, or EDV), which is a protein expressed on the surface of epithelial cancers. Vimentin is a key structural protein present in many cell types that protects its nucleus against deformation, rupture and DNA damage. Because this protein is found in many cancers, clinical trials with Pritumumab could have important implications for a number of common cancers, such as breast, colon, and lung cancers. 

The story of how Pritumumab went from Phase 3 trials in Japan to Phase 1 trials in the US merits a few words.

Dr Mark Glassy, who was co-founder of Nascent Biologics, actually invented pritumumab in 1982, while he was a faculty member of the University of California San Diego (UCSD). Shortly after he invented the antibody, a visiting member of the faculty from Japan took it back to his country, had it licensed there and used the antibody to treat a relative with cancer.  Dr Glassy was told by the legal department at UCSD that there was no recourse available to retrieve the antibody since the Japanese party had already secured a license for the antibody from UCSD.

According to Japanese data, about 250 brain cancer patients have been treated with Pritumumab, with a response rate of approximately 30%. This is in contrast with the 5-year survival rate in persons with brain cancer, which is about 3%. In December 2008, Dr Glassy was able to retrieve the license for his own invention, and Nascent finalized the agreement with the Japanese scientist in July 2009.

For US clinical trials, Pritumumab was initially obtained from a B lymphocyte isolated from a regional draining lymph node of a patient with cervical carcinoma through traditional technology. As with many monoclonal antibodies, the drug is modeled on a naturally-occurring original and then duplicated in the laboratory.

On 31 March of this year, Nascent announced that patients have been enrolled and initial dosing has begun in the company’s Phase 1 trial to evaluate Pritumumab as a treatment option for brain cancer, including malignant primary brain tumors and adult brain metastases. Since Pritumumab’s target is a protein expressed on the surface of several other cancers, is can be used as a targeted immunotherapy that, unlike chemotherapy, targets only cancer cells without damaging healthy ones. Because of this dynamic, the current clinical study may have implications for future research on Pritumumab as a treatment option for a broad range of more common cancers, including breast, colon, and lung cancers.

And on 27 February of this year, Nascent heralded the publication of strong in vitro results from a collaboration with Syracuse University. The data from this study show that Pritumumab was able to block about 80% of SARS-CoV-2, the causative virus in COVID-19, from entering cells. Based on these results, Pritumumab will be advanced to animal studies. Once again, the mechanism by means of which Pritumumab is able to prevent the virus from entering cells is through its binding to vimentin, the cell surface protein found on the surface not only of many cancers but of many cells.

What has been learned about Pritumumab thus far points in many promising directions. Binding mechanisms are complex and need to be observed and understood at the molecular level, which may be beyond biology and often calls for a knowledge of physics. But understanding of this kind has led to major breakthroughs in the medical field, such as in the treatment of rheumatoid arthritis. As for Pritumumab itself, its usefulness may only beginning to be understood.

What will the next flu season look like?

Was there even a flu season this past year? Last fall, lots of folks in the health-care community were quite nervous about what would happen when the flu walloped us on top of the COVID-19 pandemic. But it turned out there was no cause to worry. There hardly was a flu season. According to the CDC, in recent years the flu season has averaged just over 200,000 cases. But this past year, from September through April, there were only about 2,000 cases. And that was not from lack of testing. In that same period, more than 1.3 million specimens have been tested for the influenza virus. There was almost no flu at all.

Comparing the death tolls from influenza with those from COVID-19 may cause some people to minimize flu as a danger, but it’s worth pointing out that the CDC estimates that flu killed from 12,000 to 61,000 people annually since 2010.

The health-care and scientific community has not arrived at a consensus regarding the likeliest cause of this totally unprecedented near-disappearance of a common sickness. Was it the fact that, because of the pandemic, people were avoiding crowded indoor spaces such as bars and restaurants? Was the closing down of movie houses and theaters the major factor? What about the cessation of most travel? Could it be that the major factor was mask-wearing? Or frequent hand-washing? Or heeding the warning never to touch your face? What part did scrupulously sanitizing play – wiping down with bleach anything that another person might have touched, including the groceries we bought, the mail, doorknobs and light switches … in fact, just about everything? Nobody questions that the precautions that were commonplace had a great deal – nay, everything! – to do with the squelching of the 2020-2021 flu season. The question that remains is, of those precautions, are there some that we should routinely continue to prevent the return of the flu in the 2021-2022 season?

The experts aren’t saying … or at least, not yet.

However, they are concerned. They point to certain specific threatening factors. One, which I suspect most people would respond to with raised eyebrows, is that the mere fact that the flu was so much less prevalent last season means that many , many fewer people were exposed to the flu virus at all. And merely being exposed to the virus does confer a degree of immunity, so a smaller proportion of the population as a whole has that degree of immunity. And that decreased immunity in turn would likely lead to more people infected, more people with serious cases, and more deaths.

Dr Richard Webby, a virologist at the St Jude’s Children’s Research Hospital in Memphis, was quoted in the N Y Times as follows: “Every year, anywhere between 20% to 30% of the population gets its immunity sort of boosted and stimulated by being exposed to the virus. We’re not going to see that this year.”

However, beyond signaling that they are worried, the experts are being cautious with their predictions.

Dr Sonja Olsen, an epidemiologist at the CDC said, “Decreases in natural immunity are a concern, and lower immunity could lead to more infections and more severe disease. We are always concerned about influenza causing severe disease, particularly in persons at risk of complications. We know that school-age children are important drivers of influenza virus transmission. However, because influenza is difficult to predict, we cannot forecast the severity of next season.”

On the other hand, Dr Rachel Baker, an epidemiologist at Princeton, said, “Right now, because influenza isn’t circulating as much, it’s possible that the virus has not had as much opportunity to evolve, meaning our vaccines could be more effective than normal.”

Another concern is that deciding on this year’s flu vaccine will be much more difficult than in previous years. The experts look at the strains that are causing illness in the current season and use that information to predict which strains are most likely to infect people in the next flu season.

Dr Webby, referring to the WHO panel that assesses the flu vaccine, said, “We met at the end of February to make those recommendations. And it was tricky. The amount of data was orders of magnitude less than it typically is.” That will make it more difficult to choose which strains to include in the vaccine.

Doc Gumshoe trusts that it will not be necessary for him to urge all denizens of Planet Gumshoe, along with all other fellow mortals, to get the flu vaccine when it is available.

And one more note of concern, relatively tiny in comparison, is the emergence of a highly pathogenic H5N8 avian influenza virus, which has caused massive mortality in both wild and farmed birds in Eurasia and Africa. So far, this infection has been limited to birds, except for one event in Russia, where seven poultry farm workers tested positive for the H5N8 virus.

May this event not portend a similar catastrophic chain such as the one that started in Wuhan in late 2019.

…and a short upbeat finale …

A paper in Science Advances, looking at data from Europe, North America, and Asia, concluded that the decline in pollution and nitric oxide levels in the air, resulting from COVID-19-related lockdowns, has resulted in about 32,000 fewer premature mortalities (Chossière GP SciAdv 5/21/2021;7:#21)

* * * * * * *

As you can see from this installment, Doc Gumshoe has excellent reason for welcoming comments and questions. I keep an eye on what’s going on in the realm of medical science and health care, but I need to know what interests Nation Gumshoe. So, as I always say, keep those comments coming. Best to all, Michael Jorrin (aka Doc Gumshoe)

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Casey T
June 7, 2021 1:02 pm

Masking – Vaccinated vs unvaccinated

The CDC’s guidance makes perfect sense for those who are vaccinated (and frankly, those who have already had the virus since recent evidence supports long-term immunity is achieved). This should not be confusing when effectiveness is ~94%, and even the 6% who still get the virus have greatly lessened symptoms (I.E. risk of serious complications strongly decreases).

Your point is that those who have not gotten vaccinated might still throw away their masks as well.

Hmmm, shouldn’t those who are willing to run the risk of getting Covid be allowed to make that choice for themselves? Isn’t the vaccine available for those who want to make sure they don’t get Covid (and greatly lessen any serious complications, even for the 6% who might still contract the virus)?

Every adult in the US now has the option to get the vaccine. Let people choose. No need for over-lording.

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retiree42
retiree42
June 7, 2021 3:51 pm
Reply to  Casey T

The fully vaccinated can still carry and unknowingly spread the virus. I will continue wearing my mask, for the sake of others, until we are sure the virus is truly eradicated.

jhsundin
Member
jhsundin
June 7, 2021 5:52 pm
Reply to  retiree42

Unknown scientific source of “fully vaccinated can still carry & unknowingly spread the China virus” might consider NASA retail website for reconditioned “suits” & then his congressman as to funding a supply for all?

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JJEvans
Guest
JJEvans
June 7, 2021 8:02 pm
Reply to  Casey T

I’m there, too, and I believe in masking. By the end of June, every eligible citizen (with some exceptions like some children) will have had an opportunity to get the vaccine. Unfortunately, those people who will never get a vaccine are also the ones who are least likely to wear a mask – they will perpetuate this virus. That said, I have no problems unmasking if it removes a few of these ignorant people from the population. They don’t care, and as such, at this point, I don’t see why I should, either.

sigmull
sigmull
June 7, 2021 1:24 pm

Anavex merits a second look. I bought in recently. Rett stuff is good but early suggestion of positive Alzhheimer effect and is well tolerated. Importantly Parkinson group has funded their P studies. After more than a year of Rx of A results are interesting. Enough for me to buy in. Look at their presentation.

jazzman777
Member
jazzman777
June 7, 2021 1:31 pm

I have been telling everyone here and elsewhere AVXL for the past 3 years!

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Jeff F
Member
June 7, 2021 4:14 pm
Reply to  jazzman777

Wish I knew you then. I just looked at the chart. That’s enough for me to nibble. Thanks. I’ll give you VGT for spare cash

David Moyer
Member
June 7, 2021 1:54 pm

In response to your piece on Pritumumab, a more effective treatment for brain cancers is antineoplastons. Dr Burzynski has been repeated pilloried by the FDA for one reason only. He has a 20+ year history of curing brain tumors, not all, but more than anyone else. In gratitude, the cancer establishment/ US government cabal tried to steal his patents through the US Patent office and also throw him in jail –they tried and failed twice to convict him of essentially curing patients. His stock has been in the toilet for years, .04 cents, 03 cents, etc. but I keep my thousands of shares. We hear a lot about cures. No one wants a cure. It would be disruptive, but the day is coming when they can’t continue to ignore the evidence. Is it a stock play? Not right now, but some respect from wall street might help his treatments to move into the mainstream. BTW, he doesn’t just use antineoplaston peptides, which activate tumor suppressor cells. He uses an array of substances to active tumor suppressor cells and silence oncogenes. His is the personalized medicine of the future.

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Robert Cassens
June 7, 2021 1:58 pm

Sorry
But if science shows that you have less than 5% chance of getting COVID and shows that you will not die from Covid if vaccinated with Moderna or Pfizer- then those vaccinated with either of these two medications should not be subject to any “THOUGHTS” as to how they should wear or not wear masks.

That is for a free person to decide.

Those that have chosen J&J ( Which Biden reordered while know the it’s efficacy is boarderline and rather than reordering Moderna is very questionable) or those that don’t want to be vaccinated should consider wearing masks for their own protection.

People and businesses should not be penalised.

capt ko
June 7, 2021 2:13 pm

In both SAVA and AVXL. Personal and financial reasons. Getting a lot of added interest today with BIIB approval.

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molitorx
molitorx
June 7, 2021 2:22 pm

Thanks for the Covid “heads-up”.

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Richard B
Richard B
June 7, 2021 3:03 pm

I think the CDC had to make this move to get ahead of what many states and the people as a whole are doing anyway. It looks to me like the public has made up its mind and no longer trusts the CDC as much as they did earlier in this event. I realized this a few weeks ago when a relative refused to be vaccinated when his agency said he had to in order to travel. Instead of blindly complying he had himself tested for antibodies and T-Cell immunity and both tests showed that he had developed full Covid immunity without ever having any symptoms. This phenomenon known as “sterilizing immunity” has not gotten enough attention. His conclusion based on all available research was that vaccination would be more dangerous than any possible exposure to another infection. My own review of research confirms this. I also believe the population “case” rate implies a much higher “infection” rate. Doing the math, it is reasonable to conclude that most of the population already has immunity, even if the nasal swab test has a very high false positive. As you say, it is possible that immunocompromised people could still get infected so perhaps they could wear N95 masks or avoid crowded inside spaces but why would anyone else want to wear a mask?

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Ronbo123
June 7, 2021 6:10 pm
Reply to  Richard B

Just because you had Covid-19 and recovered doesn’t mean the antibodies will protect you from a variant.

My friend found out the hard way and it almost killed him his blood oxygen lvl was 78% when they got him to the hospital. He said the 1st bout of Covid-19 was a walk in the park. His 2nd bout wasn’t.

The vaccines are the least dangerous solution in my opinion.

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Covid-19 vaccines
amber
Guest
amber
June 8, 2021 10:00 am
Reply to  Richard B

So much in this post to agree with! I also believe that the percentage of the population that has achieved immunity without being ill is not being considered. Our immune systems will adapt and protect us. How could we even keep up with variants using immunization? A day in our life is a long, long time in a virus existence. They just mutate and keep going. A healthy immune system responds in kind.

The way this virus overwhelmed us points to a jump in its gain of function that was above and beyond the ability of many compromised humans to react. How that jump occurred is under investigation -we may never be told the truth.

People need to understand that the nasal swab tests can be unreliable because of the magnification of data needed to qualify as positive. We should be informed of the magnification cycle used on our test. Otherwise, it can be taken to the point that just a fragment of a chain of nucleotides registers, and can be no more than something we happened to breathe in – and not
meaningful.

mike ragsdale
Member
mike ragsdale
June 7, 2021 3:07 pm

this is about you taking a shot a trump because of the who investigating the covid im sure they are a great org and have done great things in their work. but all trump wanted to pull out because he said the who did not do their job in investigating china about covid leak . and tell me if im wrong i might be. in a story released by 60 minutes it said that the w.h.o let china do the investigating of the virus and then w.h.o released their findings. the w.h.o never originally said that they went with chinas findings and still havent. so i believe trump did the right thing. sometimes you have to keep your bias under control and release all info before speaking thx for the platform and i really do like the your work re dr jorrin

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jhsundin
Member
jhsundin
June 7, 2021 4:46 pm
Reply to  mike ragsdale

Doc, you had an interesting swerve from research “chain” you started w/ to basically political intimations & purely speculative hindsight projections of which the “govt/virologists” live by. The call for science is a conundrum in that observed=science is one thing & tho statistics can be helpful, statistics are not observed science only projections of probabilities. Statistics can be skewed as any who have studied “statistical science” can attest & should be held separate from “pure science”. I don’t support ignorance of “statistics”, but “political science” combined w/ “statistical science” has been sadly inconclusive, nay, somewhat-to-mostly rudderless & many aspects of American life despoiled. WHO was 1st, then CDC & most of the bureaucratic so called medical professionals were firing blanks. No matter the “hate” projected by the many TDS afflicted, which I believe, held back concerted progress. Trump still led & triumphed over “regulation” which allowed “true science” private business to overcome past institutional predilections & hence the unprecedented vaccines now saving lives thruout the world via US leadership & cooperation. Many are tired of Trump’s bombastic ways, but history written now, must acknowledge what has never before been accomplished: the China virus miracle.

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calnativ
Member
calnativ
July 20, 2021 2:58 am
Reply to  jhsundin

Not what happened. Pfizer did not accept government money to develop, test or expand manufacturing capacity under Trump’s Operation Warp Speed initiative.
Trump lied for MONTHS, he admitted he KNEW beginning of 2020 people would be dying, but he sold lies, and hundreds of thousands died. And now republicans continue lying to the public, trying to scare them away from vaccines in an effort to throw a monkey wrench into Biden bringing the country back to normal and boosting the economy.

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Jeff F
Member
June 7, 2021 4:10 pm

Of course Travis sir, I thouit was my phone, and it would just go away. Well, I was half right, and for an investor 50% is a score!! everyone

Joan Lumber
Guest
Joan Lumber
June 7, 2021 5:10 pm

All the vulnerable who wanted it took the experimental injections. Therefore it is time to stop all the restrictions and none sense and obviously stop the masks, which are useless. Look at Florida and Texas. Enough is enough.

Dave
Dave
June 7, 2021 5:14 pm

There is debate about wearing masks or not. What scientific evidence is there on the effectiveness of surgical masks against COVID-19? Early in the pandemic , CDC told us that surgical masks (which is what most people wear) would not be effective. What evidence changed this view.

edward
Member
edward
June 7, 2021 5:14 pm

The “one size fits all” covid projections and regulations are just flat wrong because they take no account of population density. I live in a small rural town (2700 pop.) and the only people wearing masks or doing social distancing are government employees and employees of government funded agencies. When I went to the grocery store recently, I counted 10 customers in sight from the front door. Only one was wearing a mask. Of the 6 clerks and other store employees in sight, none (zero) were wearing masks. Despite this and an outsized retiree population there were only two confirmed covid related deaths at the nearest hospital. As I survey the impact of covid between this small rural town and the nearest major city, there is a clear relationship with population density, not just how many are packed in a restaurant, bar or sports arena. No lockdowns or mask regulations take this into consideration.

Now the CDC and politicians propose to loosen requirements for people who have been vaccinated. When I went to sign up as a senior citizen for the first round of vaccine, I was rejected due to health considerations related to potential side effects. Is there any relief from being labeled a danger to society?
— edward

Ari
Guest
Ari
June 7, 2021 5:15 pm

Just a point to refute the pro-vaccine “passport” argument here –
Israel NEVER implemented that system. Never. There were never any limitations placed on the unvaccinated in practice.
I can’t speak for Europe, but not being vaccinated had zero impact on one’s ability to integrate. Even in principle, the only things that were barred were hotels and large events and even those restrictions (which were never enforced) have been dropped now.

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calnativ
Member
calnativ
July 20, 2021 3:01 am
Reply to  Ari

At least lately France has, including bars, cafes, etc. It helped push more people to get vaccinated.

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Mike
Member
Mike
June 7, 2021 5:20 pm

Doc – I thank you for your articles but I can’t figure out how you keep lacking for the Anavex AVXL. They are much further ahead than you state. They have over 5 years of safety with all patients continuing on the drug after study is complete. People are playing the piano and painting – getting there lives back with this drug. Not to mention Parkinsons, Rett and now heart. Alot to dig into here. Up 10% today.

Annovis is another looker. ANVS. They have fantastic data that improved MSS score by 4.4 points in AD . IMPROVING 30% over baseline in cognition in 25 days !!!! Also a 22% improvement over the placebo !. excellent Parkingsons data as well – improving motor function in PD and sig reductions in inflammatory biomarkers. Small sample (it was a early look into the trial) – 14 AD and 14 PD patients.

Alot of good work being done now that we have finally buried the tau/plaque theory.

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Marty
Guest
Marty
June 7, 2021 6:21 pm
Reply to  Mike

The Tau Plaque theory demise is a story of modern society and research. Up until recently anyone seeking alternative theories to TP theory risked being castigated by their peers and shut off from research money.

Lisa
Lisa
June 7, 2021 6:20 pm

Oh my! U are absolutely brilliant too! Would Gumshoe II be apropos!? Far be it for silly, little old me to go around handing out new (deserved or otherwise!)monikers?!! I’m so impressed with the quality of the written words that you both so eloquently bubble on to the paper…I mean, monitor! (Showing my age)
But I do have a thing or to to say about the CDC.
First, we must remember what those letters stand for! Centers For Disease Control. The last time I checked, it was the hub of infectious diseases around the world! The name said it ALL…yes past tense. Onto the personal stage of the Greatest Potentate of all time!
Trump! Who personally took it upon himself to “order” the CDC to become the medical DEA! Having been and am on for the rest of my life, an opiate patient. It is due to 7/8 different spinal problems. Without them, I would probably be dead…
This travesty of justice is when the CDC somehow morphed into King Trumps Aderall (Brand name for Speed or Meth)induced, Holier than thou move, without our American rules and protocols involving our great House and Senate , contrary to the very fabric of our Country.
The CDC IS THE GREATEST LIFE SAVING ORGANIZATION on our blue marble!
It is filled with the greatest research minds geared on the most recent and deadly strains, viruses, etc. for the entire Earth! Hail CDC!!! Thank you all!!!

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jhsundance
Member
jhsundance
June 8, 2021 1:35 am
Reply to  Lisa

Lisa, so sorry for your spinal problems, my wife had pain management also which became complicated by many ailments & finally early onset dementia. I have an aversion to pain management, but am sure your doctors are carefully monitoring your course of treatment. Trump had many “swamp” conflicts, but thank God, overcame many of the regulations which typically would have consigned vaccine development to the typical 10yr incubation: vaccines beginning in less than 10 months, alto just after the Presidential election. The CDC used to be thought of as impeccable, but all of these “health” agencies & bureaucracies have been soiled by mixing in politics & other aspects lacking concerted focus on the China virus pandemic & instead regime change. Politics are a contact sport which can & do intrude into all aspects of life & seemingly barging further & further into our individual freedoms.

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Renee Weaver
June 7, 2021 7:06 pm

What do you guys think then about Nascent? It’s only .07 a share. If they are the ones with the pritumumab success, are they a strong enough company that someone could/should invest in it? I don’t actually put a lot of money into these things, so if things don’t go as expected it’s not terrible. But no point in putting any money at all into something that doesn’t look like it has good potential.

JJEvans
Guest
JJEvans
June 7, 2021 8:16 pm
Reply to  Renee Weaver

Put $1k in it and wait 5 and then 10 years. Most people with money to invest should be able to afford to lose $1k. After 5 years, if it’s still viable (I have my doubts, just the way the cookie typically crumbles), reevaluate and either sell or hold for another 5 years. If it hasn’t generated a profit in 5 to 10 years, it likely never will: dump it, because technological progress will bulldoze them.

Travis Johnson, Stock Gumshoe
June 7, 2021 9:42 pm
Reply to  Renee Weaver

I hadn’t ever heard of it, and generally I avoid getting involved with teensy stocks unless I feel like I know them as well as a board member would.

Bloomberg lists the market cap as $6 million, and my knee-jerk reaction to that is “way too small to justify being public.” Which also means it’s a clear temptation for penny stock speculators, because companies that size usually have nothing going on at all… and we’ve learned here that it at least has an interesting story.

You probably have several restaurants or car dealerships in your town that are worth $6 million… what would you want to know before you bought them? And if you are not a biotech or pharmacy expert in the case of this particular stock, how would your bid for the restaurant or dealership change if you had never seen food or cars before, and the menu hadn’t been set or the cars invented yet?

Fascinating story, and I have not read anything about it beyond Michael’s comments above and don’t know what other skeletons might lurk in their closets, but for me it would be the type of thing that I would bet a tiny bit on if really interested (I have not done so, to be clear), with the full expectation that any sub-$100 million biotech has something like a 95% probability of ending in a 100% loss. Like a speculative call option.

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Michael Jones
Guest
Michael Jones
June 7, 2021 10:01 pm

Posting about the CDC has no place on your site. You do an amazing job otherwise but have been totally taken in by the corrupt CDC and the US government. The deceit and corruption is starting to float to the surface. There are so many doctor who have tried to warn the public but our admin has allowed and encouraged censorship. this is an extremely broad topic that goes so deep beyond the scope of a financial research advisory firm. I have never seen one real study showing masks do anything. Even Fauci let it slip that these cheap masks are worthless. You have not done the type of research that you are known for on this topic.

Mike
Member
Mike
June 11, 2021 9:03 am
Reply to  Michael Jones

Another point about the CDC is there record on Lyme disease. I live in the Northeast where Lyme disease is rampant. Because of the rules on scoring 3 out of 5 lines on the western blot test twice (or some such nonsense) This is the CDC Rule to be diagnosed with lyme – doctors are unable to give a diagnosis for Lyme and therefore people go untreated and the bacteria gets into the muscle and brain(called lyme brain or other neurological issues_. I have friends that have spent thousands of dollars getting it treated out of pocket because the doctors can’t put anything thru insurance that isn’t diagnosed by that stupid test and rule from the CDC. So lets see if you only have 2 lines on the test. Same as being a little bit pregnant ? I know of teenagers that have committed suicide because of the pain/issues and doctors even telling you that it is in your head !!

This is as big of an issue as COVID-19 IMHO. And yes Californian – Lyme ticks were discovered on your beaches – so maybe Nancy will take some notice now !

In my opinion they need a new and more accurate test that includes other bacteria (call co-bacteria) that I think actually is the reason it is so hard to treat. It isn’t just Lyme bacteria. People need to be treated – we need new treatments for the co-infections and we need insurance to pay for it. It is like the black market – people say I know someone that will treat you but you have to pay cash……crazy !

FYI – the reason we have all these Lyme bearing ticks is because of of the elimination of DDT(except for emergency insect control 2004) . DDT was making large bird eggs such as eagles and falcons too soft reproduce as readily. So I love birds as much as the next person but honestly I would rather be able to watch my grandchildren play in the grass without worrying about a total body scan every time ! I also find myself not as likely to go off the beaten path and venture into all the beautiful woods we have in the Northeast.

Best solution is to leave DDT alone and make better screening and treatements for Lyme. Would love a deep dive Doc !

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Att Chester
Guest
June 12, 2021 11:12 am
Reply to  Michael Jones

A year ago, a study showed that surgical mask filtering significantly weakened Covid infections in hamsters (https://artchester.net/2020/09/herd-immunity/#Animal). Hamsters, you say? How does that relate? It’s considered unethical to run certain experiments on humans, so scientists reluctantly use animals to model response to diseases. A careful study showed that putting mask material between infected animals and uninfected ones reduced the number of infections and, especially, weakened the few infections that did occur. I have not seen any research that refutes this result.

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Last edited 2 years ago by Att Chester
Robert Brink
Member
June 8, 2021 12:53 am

In Florida, Gov. Ron DeSantis forbids even cruise ships from requiring vaccination passports of passengers, though 80% of the people want the requirement. The highly educated DeSantis is doing this purely for political reasons: He wants to appeal to the Trump-supporting troglodytes as he gears up for his re-election campaign next year. In all likelihood, he will win. Then he will run for president, and I’ll wager he has a good chance to win again.

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calnativ
Member
calnativ
July 29, 2021 9:46 pm
Reply to  Robert Brink

His state is surging due to his banal attitude. It would be scary to live there.

Last edited 2 years ago by calnativ
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