by Travis Johnson, Stock Gumshoe | July 31, 2021 2:21 pm
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For those who believe trying to be a successful investor based upon predictions is folly, or might be folly, my book recommendation is: The Black Swan (2nd edition), by Taleb. It is not a fast read – very chewy…Dana
the oxford club is promoting a $30 cryto stock in there prediction profits offer, what is it
Sounds like that’s probably a repeat of the one I covered a couple months ago — it was a pitch for Galaxy Digital (https://www.stockgumshoe.com/reviews/predictive-profits/friday-file-30-1-crypto-stock-pitch-plus-quarters-from-fastly-cloudflare-roku-wesco-and-more/)
Thanks Travis, much appreciated as always.
Great run down of this week’s quarterly reports. Clear, level headed, articulate critical analysis with personality and humour. Thank you!
I totally agree!!
What’s your take on the psychedelic stocks pitched by Teeka Tiwari in his presentation a few weeks ago?
I’ve only looked lightly at the psychedelic stocks this year, none are far enough along for me to be comfortable, but the dream of most investors is that they’ll enjoy a bubble like the pot stocks did a few times, and that’s certainly possible… I keep seeing more teasers for the shroom stocks, so I’m sure I’ll dig in again and check them out afresh at some point.
AGPIF?
Just adding as it dips a little, getting a little more base metals exposure. No big news recently, but their update was solid — steady as she goes in the first half, they expect better numbers in the second half as commodity prices are rising. I’ll share some additional comments next week.
FYI, another competitor to a portion of TDOC’s business got IPO’d recently; LifeStance Health Group, Inc. (LFST). They just deal with mental health.
Regarding what you said about Kambi, “The last close in Stockholm was around $43, so we’re close to that level now (the OTC shares at KMBIF are often meaningfully off of the “fair” price, mostly because they don’t have much trading volume, so don’t trust those KMBIF quotes)”
Why don’t arbitragers close the gaps on these disparities?
They do, for most stocks that have some overlap in trading (and Kambi does, because Stockholm and NY trading hours overlap for an hour or two in the NY morning), but there doesn’t seem to be enough US trading interest to drive a lot of volume on the OTC system in the US, so there isn’t enough to attract arbitrageurs.
In this case it’s not so much that the price you’ll get is wildly off base if you trade carefully, basing a limit bid on the Stockholm price, it’s that the actual quote for KMBIF might be wildly off what is currently fair in Stockholm, because that KMBIF quote might represent a trade that took place a few days ago. Some days the OTC symbol doesn’t trade at all.
The OTC system shows that KMBIF dropped 33.5% today. It’s last trade was $30.00.
Travis, have you looked at MHO? I own DFH but am looking at MHO now as well. Interesting home builder in the smart home business.
I have not ever looked at MHO, but the numbers look very solid at first glance. MHO has’t had the consistently strong ROE that the best homebuilders have over the years, and that’s the number that stands out for me with NVR and DFH, but it has certainly shot up recently.
I read somewhere that LEN-B is a promising-dividend payer- homebuilder that follows NVR model. True?
They’ve been reducing their debt, and they do pay a small dividend. They’re bigger than NVR, and their returns over the past decade have been similar — NVR still comes in much stronger with a consistently high ROE, but other than that I haven’t looked as closely at Lennar. All the homebuilders are doing great right now, the differentiation in this group tends to come in the down turns, thanks that overextend with more debt and land purchases fall hardest.
Travis, any thoughts about YSAC’s newly announced combination with Sky Harbor Group?
Have seen only the press release, seems a reasonable idea that’s in BOMN’s wheelhouse (niche infrastructure), but when I looked this morning there weren’t any numbers from Sky Harbour yet.
@travis, could you add the ‘buy below price’ to the Real Money portfolio?
On Goosehead, have you ever tried to quantify their current run-rate earnings based on the existing book of business and then adjusted it for the renewal economics? What could that number grow to over the next 3 years or so? Thanks.
Not precisely. It’s also a muddle because a huge percentage of their agents were brought on over the past two years and recruitment continues to be very aggressive.
What would Goosehead’s earnings be if you adjusted today’s book of business for the renewal economics?
What do you think of Observability? Its cloud security I believe?? Actually what, if any, companies provide ICloud security that you would recommend buying shares in? Thanks in advance
The only cloud security/cybersecurity stocks I currently own are Cloudflare (NET) and Okta (OKTA), both of which I like but are also well above what I’d consider reasonable buy prices. Observability is a concept in monitoring systems, including data clouds and computer networks, but I don’t know of a company by that name.