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written by reader PAUL MAMPILLY’S 100X – SEASON 3

By Sam, July 2, 2021

Hello Everyone I saw the text from Lazutinku , Hopefully everyone will see this thread and we get goin

This is a discussion topic or guest posting submitted by a Stock Gumshoe reader. The content has not been edited or reviewed by Stock Gumshoe, and any opinions expressed are those of the author alone.

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Fricus55
July 19, 2021 12:55 pm

REFXF (Secret portfolio) is down nearly 35% today

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gbh94102
Irregular
July 19, 2021 1:18 pm

Paul’s Secret Portfolio, Trade alert: Sell RFX for 24% profit. He issued this trade alert in the morning but in a space of a few hours the OTC symbol REFXF is already down 35%. Very illiquid stock

In general received 7 sell alerts in July – GOGL,DSX, ALESK, Cyberdyne, TOBII, BMN, NAVYA and RFX and no buy alerts this month so far. Typically they issue 3-4 trade alerts a month with a couple of buys and a couple of sells, so I suspect they are repositioning, collecting cash and will look to buy a bunch soon

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big tuna
July 19, 2021 3:32 pm

Good Day: I will say to anyone new to this thread that has missed buy alerts and recommendations and try to follow-up at a later time, that can be a big mistake. I only found this thread in JAN and attempted to follow others gains and I’ve been soundly beaten down with 6-70% losses. If the ship has sailed it has sailed.

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aggiemey05
Member
aggiemey05
July 19, 2021 4:43 pm

Anyone find any news on ARDX??? It crashed 70+% after hours. The new FDA date was supposed to be coming up at the end of the month.

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rtrader
rtrader
July 19, 2021 5:04 pm
Reply to  aggiemey05

From Marketwatch:
Shares in Ardelyx Inc. ARDX, +2.67% plummeted more than 70% in after-hours trading Monday, following the biopharmaceutical company’s announcement that the Food and Drug Administration appears unlikely to approve a drug for dialysis patients. Ardelyx revealed that it received a letter from the FDA stating that deficiencies in the information provided had been found that would preclude discussion of approvals Ardelyx has sought. When Ardelyx sought a meeting with the FDA to discuss the deficiencies, the request was denied, though Ardelyx stated that “the FDA noted that a key issue is the size of the treatment effect and its clinical relevance.” “This is an extremely disheartening and disappointing communication from the FDA, particularly following the weeks of label discussions that occurred in early April, the fact that our NDA submission included three pivotal trials across 1,000 patients, all which met their primary and key secondary endpoints, as well as the additional data analyses we submitted in late April in response to the FDA’s requests,” Ardelyx Chief Executive Mike Raab said in a statement. Ardelyx shares, which closed at $7.70 in the regular session for a market capitalization of more than $700 million, saw shares dive to less than $2.50 in the after-hours trading period.

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calculatedrisk
Member
calculatedrisk
July 19, 2021 6:21 pm
Reply to  rtrader

Ouch, yes. I had a pretty sizable position in this (~3%). That doesn’t feel good. Now I feel like we need a good day tomorrow just to break even. I don’t think Paul is going to sell tomorrow, he usually doesn’t in situations like this. Whoever has EF, any updates that he sends tomorrow would be appreciated.

My guess is it’ll settle in the high $1s or low $2s and sit there for many months until they can get some sort of good news (like another window from the FDA). IF they do it’ll pop at that time. Reading into the announcement, “deficiencies in the information provided had been found that would PRECLUDE discussion of approval”. This makes it sounds like it was some sort of information deficiency and they didn’t even discuss approval.

However, “the FDA noted the key issue is the size of the treatment effect and its clinical relevance” makes it seem like it was actual data from the studies. These announcements are always so cryptic.

I guess this is the reason to spread the money out. Of course I had money to buy this one but not MRNA! Such is life! I’ll probably follow Paul’s guidance.

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calculatedrisk
Member
calculatedrisk
July 19, 2021 7:18 pm
Reply to  calculatedrisk

Ok, this might be silly, and I’m not recommending it to anyone else, but I just bought a little more at $1.97 after hours and left some room in case I could get some for less. I plan to trade this if we see mid-to-high $2s tomorrow. (25-50% in one day wouldn’t be bad, right?)

With something like this I always advise people to check out the ACTUAL SEC filing rather than just going to the news (or even what is posted on your brokers news feed, because that is also just headline news).

Here is that filing (go check it out!): https://www.sec.gov/ix?doc=/Archives/edgar/data/0001437402/000162828021014021/ardx-20210713.htm

A couple things make me think this could be a very favorable risk-reward.

The first is that as of June 30, 2021 the company had $171.8 million in cash, cash equivalents and short-term investments. This is $1.74 per share folks. That means that each share is worth $1.74 in cash and short term-investments alone. (Doesn’t include equipment and all that other good stuff on the balance sheet). If this is going to take a while to fix, the company will probably have some layoffs and get pretty lean to cut costs. Full disclosure, I do not know the cash burn rate. They have 86 employees according to Owler (not sure how current that is). My point here is it is nice to have $1.74 in cash supporting shares trading for $2. Almost paying nothing for the actual drug they are developing at this point.

Secondly, a couple things on the filing are promising: “as part of its ongoing review of the company’s New Drug Application”, I like the word “ongoing”. Also, “the FDA has identified deficiencies that preclude discussion of labeling and post-marketing requirements/commitments at this time” I like the words…”at this time”. “The FDA stated that this notification does not reflect a final decision on the information under review.” This is clearly good too.

What I am seeing in the news that is not part of the filing is that the FDA denied the request to meet with the company. I don’t know enough about the industry to know how big of a slap in the face that must be for the CEO. Clearly, that is disappointing when wanting a “quick fix”. My guess is enduring through some pain here will be worth it. In my opinion, with that amount of cash on the balance sheet, at the worst this company might now be an interesting takeover target at a price higher than where it is now.

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aggiemey05
Member
aggiemey05
July 19, 2021 10:25 pm
Reply to  calculatedrisk

Interesting idea calculatedrisk. I also started to wonder if I should actually buy more. I too saw some of the word choice as being a little more hopeful. CKD is a disease I am personally invested in though so at worst I may keep some even if PM says to sell. I’m interested in his thoughts as he has probably been through something like this before. I will be keeping a close eye on it for sure. Hope your calculatedrisk turns out well for you 🙂

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Mitel
Guest
Mitel
July 20, 2021 5:11 pm
Reply to  aggiemey05

I’m holding mine. This is one of those “Cash on the side” times, where I don’t need the money for another investment. I bought at 9 and it’s at 2. I could take the loss now, or I can wait and see it rise to 4 or 5 and at least limit my losses. The loss is already lost, as more news comes in, there is possible good news in the margins.

Arvi
Member
Arvi
July 19, 2021 6:48 pm
Reply to  aggiemey05

This is going to add another dent to the already RED portfolio. Please keep the thread posted on what guidance Paul had given on this stock. Thanks !

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VENKATESAN
VENKATESAN
July 19, 2021 9:52 pm

Excel spreadsheet 1 0f 2 – 07/09/2021
Thank you all for the generous contribution!

Paul1 2021-07-19 214442.jpg
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Snawing
Guest
Snawing
July 19, 2021 10:00 pm
Reply to  VENKATESAN

What does the yellow mean?

VENKATESAN
VENKATESAN
July 19, 2021 10:48 pm
Reply to  Snawing

just the change in the ticker symbol

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VENKATESAN
VENKATESAN
July 19, 2021 9:56 pm

Excel spreadsheet 2 0f 2 – 07/09/2021
Thank you all!

Paul2 2021-07-19 214634.jpg
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VENKATESAN
VENKATESAN
July 19, 2021 10:51 pm
Reply to  VENKATESAN

CSTDF highlighted is for selling 50%

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SillyRabbit
July 19, 2021 11:16 pm
Reply to  VENKATESAN

Thank you for all that you do. Curious if we are still getting updates for 100x?

Last edited 2 years ago by SillyRabbit
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calculatedrisk
Member
calculatedrisk
July 20, 2021 11:04 am
Reply to  SillyRabbit

DevilDog had that subscription, unfortunately he seemed to leave the thread some weeks back.

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Julie Ash
Guest
Julie Ash
July 20, 2021 4:07 pm
Reply to  calculatedrisk

Does anyone else share the 100X picks here? Also New Era Fortunes – looking for new top 3 new era windfall opportunity. Thanks!

olly123
July 20, 2021 5:08 pm
Reply to  VENKATESAN

Thanks Venkatesan – appreciate you and all members that help with updates. Thanks again

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CraneC
CraneC
July 20, 2021 12:27 am

Anyone receive a crypto update yet since the call on AAVE? I believe someone mentioned he expected these to be short term trades.

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gun341
July 20, 2021 2:08 am

Thank you Venkatesan.

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marissa
marissa
July 20, 2021 10:12 am

Mampilly’ s trade alert: sell ARDX

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calculatedrisk
Member
calculatedrisk
July 20, 2021 10:53 am
Reply to  Sam

Dang, must be something he really didn’t like about that. I mean it is obviously bad news, but it is telling that he is willing to take $1.90 for it. Did he give any explanation or just reiterate what was in the news release? I sold most of mine, held onto a really small amount as a learning so I follow it for a while.

Also, in True Momentum, SELL NEO.

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olly123
July 20, 2021 1:30 pm
Reply to  Sam

I have learned that the market does not care what one pays for a stock and one does not know how long if at all it will take to bounce . Sometimes its better to take your lumps & sell. Reinvest in one with an upward trajectory . Just my opinion.

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marissa
marissa
July 20, 2021 2:34 pm
Reply to  calculatedrisk

He said “based on my past experience , these kinds of situations take a long time to play out. And even though we’ll be taking a loss on ARdX, I believe selling is a better option than waiting in a stock with no near- term upside that will just occupy a highly-coveted spot in your equal weighted portfolio.”

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calculatedrisk
Member
calculatedrisk
July 20, 2021 3:22 pm
Reply to  marissa

Thank you!

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aggiemey05
Member
aggiemey05
July 20, 2021 3:52 pm
Reply to  marissa

I agree on this one. Sadly I fully sold this morning. Last year I held a CRBP (not a PM stock) that also dropped nearly 80% around the same prices and I held onto half. It took 6 months for it just go up a dollar. Was not worth it especially last year when I could have thrown it at just about anything. Also a quick Google this morning had top results of a couple law firms gathering stockholders for lawsuit. Likely just a money grab but didn’t set well with me.

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project4play
project4play
July 20, 2021 11:30 am
Reply to  Sam

yes, bad news for them.

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garagedoor
July 20, 2021 1:29 pm

Better news today for all of us small cap owners. The IWM is coming off its low. Open interest and money flow have picked up today. RSI 2 raised from a low 1.41 yesterday to a healthy RSI 2 67.06 as of this writing. Although selling pressure is still up a bit, buying pressure is closing the gap. This maybe the turn around for small cap stocks unless of course the news of the day takes a downward turn.

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Mitel
Guest
Mitel
July 20, 2021 5:05 pm

Listen to todays Profits unlimited podcast. It’s long, but covers important stuff relating to all the PM portfolio stocks. Both relating to the current environment (@15 mins in) and keeping his portfolios limited in #’s of stocks (20 mins). Then at 30 min talks about platforms (zoom, tdoc).
Probably the best one in a while.

Mitel
Guest
Mitel
July 20, 2021 5:27 pm
Reply to  Mitel

And at the 50 minute mark he proves he is human and not a shill for Banyan. Keeping it real to a person who is 52, on a fixed income, and signed up for the crypto service. Talked about risk/short term gains…..

SIGCZR
Member
SIGCZR
July 22, 2021 12:36 am
Reply to  Mitel

Expecting to profit enough to pay for 2 weddings! Blew my mind.

bigdawgryan
Member
bigdawgryan
July 20, 2021 5:30 pm
Reply to  Mitel

Paul also recommended the Robinhood pre-IPO available through the Robinhood app. Paul said that Robinhood would be a recommendation in next month’s PU newsletter.

prakad
July 20, 2021 9:56 pm

Another bad news: In its quest to build one of the largest lithium mines in the United States, Piedmont Lithium Inc(PLL) has overlooked one crucial constituency: its North Carolina neighbors.

I would like to know what others say about it.

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Mitel
Guest
Mitel
July 21, 2021 10:48 am
Reply to  prakad

Even with the 20% drop today, the company has still returned 31% since coming into the portfolio. (EF). That’s almost 2.5x the S&P return for the same time period. I think it’s an overreaction to the news, but might take profits on it and walk away. On the other hand, when it becomes the first Lithium producer in the US, that stock is going to look really cheap! Just my opinion, but I’ll probably hold. That’s part of the rules of the game, not going all in on one stock. The EF portfolio is on pace with the market today and some of the new energy stocks are starting to move.

gbh94102
Irregular
July 21, 2021 10:09 am

Crypto Flash Trade Alert: Buy into MATIC. Buyzone: 0.78-0.85-0.92. Cheapest-Mid-Very Expensive

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JayP80
Guest
JayP80
July 21, 2021 10:18 am
Reply to  gbh94102

Thank you!

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CraneC
Guest
CraneC
July 21, 2021 11:23 am
Reply to  gbh94102

Thanks. Bought into this at $0.70 yesterday. From a technical perspective, it was oversold on the daily chart. Fundamentally, it has a great use case with a strong active user/developer community with support for its assets now on multiple platforms like AAVE, Curve, and Binance. It’s one of the few platforms I actually use due to the low fees associated with transferring and staking assets.

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bigdawgryan
Member
bigdawgryan
July 21, 2021 11:39 am
Reply to  gbh94102

Thanks much!

calculatedrisk
Member
calculatedrisk
July 21, 2021 11:48 am
Reply to  gbh94102

Thank you, really appreciate it too!

When I bought AAVE I also bought MATIC at $0.96 (aside from BTC and ETH these are the only ones I have), so this is really COINcidental. Unfortunately, missed the nose dive down to $0.62 last night or I might have added. Mark Cuban is a big fan of MATIC (also sometimes referred to as Polygon) and I find that Mark Cuban makes a lot of very good investing decisions. I remember about 7-8 years ago when Netflix tanked 20% after an earnings call showed bad subscriber growth and he threw many millions at it. A year later he had more than doubled his money.

I am not an expert on Crypto, but so far it seems like Paul and team are picking the highest quality ones. (Another that I have heard good things about but do not own is Cardano, will be interesting if that ends up being his third trade, haha)

Thanks again for the trade gbh!

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biggainshunter
Member
biggainshunter
July 21, 2021 12:34 pm
Reply to  calculatedrisk

Thanks calculatedrisk I was thinking that I was not able to purchase MATIC on Coinbase until you stated this is also known as Polygon. Coinbase does show this as Polygon with the ticker as MATIC. Decision time with this being at the daily peak as I write – up 25%.

I do have Cardano which is also going up along with most of the COINS today, fingers crossed that it is a future recommendation. I also brought 1INCH which aims to give the best rates across decentralised exchanges. Again everything crossed for this one as its currently around $1.

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gbh94102
Irregular
July 21, 2021 1:02 pm
Reply to  calculatedrisk

Yeah I own a bunch of different crypto and using his recommendations now to dollar average and do some short term trading. I’ve noticed that most cryptos (at least the Defi/eth based) go up together and fall together – some more so than others. Also tend to be a leading indicator of a bullish/bearish sentiment in the stock market. Most are up by at least 10% today with MATIC leading the charge. I expect the next trade recommendation to be timed on a pullback.

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seaturtle
Member
seaturtle
July 21, 2021 10:25 am

Rebound trader. Buy calls on MARA
MARCH 2022 exp date.
Strike price 23.
Limit $12

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garagedoor
July 21, 2021 12:32 pm
Reply to  seaturtle

Thank You. For all of us visual learners, I used my charts so you can see just why MARA is an option play. Price on a given time frame is in an uptrend if it is making higher highs (HH) and higher lows (HL). On July 20th MARA closed with a (HL). RSI 2 on July 19 was 0 .02 – extremely low. Open interest and money flow has increased the past few days. Finally, buying pressure slightly took over selling pressure. As always, be careful with the days news. Crypto has been on a wild journey lately. Hope this helps.

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777777
Member
777777
July 22, 2021 7:42 am

WISA blowing up this morning. The chart looks very good.

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777777
Member
777777
July 22, 2021 8:09 am

WISA broke 1 year highs. There is literally no resistance levels now. I’m excited to see where this goes. Holding large here.

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Time to Roll
Time to Roll
July 22, 2021 10:08 am
Reply to  777777

Holding a big chunk of WISA as well from the 100x recommendation. It’s looking good!

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