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Friday File: Pandemic Darlings Continue to Fall on Hard Times… which are worth buying?

Updates on Stitch Fix, Chewy, Roku and more... plus a big summary of the $100K Lock Box Portfolio

By Travis Johnson, Stock Gumshoe, December 10, 2021

Let me start with a special welcome to our new Irregulars who came aboard this week, during the still-ongoing Charitable Membership Drive (tell your friends, the campaign goes through December 15!) — thank you for supporting Stock Gumshoe, and I hope you can grow to tolerate, and sometimes even enjoy, my lengthy Friday blatherations.

I thought today’s Friday File would be a short one, actually, since I put out a huge Special Report for my dear Irregulars just a couple days ago and I need to give you some time to chew on that 50+ page “halftime” look at the $100K Lock Box Portfolio… but then I started writing, and it turns out I needed 2,000 words to make up my mind about Stitch Fix (SFIX) after a terrible earnings report. You don’t have to read all those words, (the short version is, “I sold my small SFIX position and bought more ROKU instead”), but they’re at the bottom of today’s missive if you’re interested.

And we’ll start with something a bit cheerier and more optimistic, because who doesn’t enjoy buying more than selling?

Roku (ROKU) and DocuSign (DOCU) have had a nice little bump back up after we “doubled down” by buying more late last week, as investors were panicking, though both still remain below my “buy below” levels.

In DocuSign’s case, I expect it was just the market bouncing a little bit after the wildly negative overreaction to their weak forecast for the coming quarter, highlighted by the CEO buying a meaningful chunk of shares at these lower prices (I mentioned that was coming last Friday, he had already begun talking about buying shares).  Sometimes the sentiment shakeout from these big moves takes a while to normalize — my “buy below” valuation for DOCU is 15X sales, which would be about $158 using this year’s numbers or, if you want to be more aggressive, $199 using next year’s forecasts.

In Roku’s case, it’s just yet another sentiment shift, driven most recently by the resolution of Roku’s carriage dispute with YouTube that will mean YouTube and YouTubeTV remain available on the Roku platform.  ROKU is growing faster than DocuSign (not that the two really have anything else in common), it’s already profitable, and it has massive growth opportunities still ahead — I still consider ROKU one of the likeliest 5X gainers over the next decade.  That’s not guaranteed, ...

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