Lockbox strategyScanning over the reasons to buy each stock, the logic seemed justified. However, only about half of these stocks are growing while the others are sinking. I’m getting worried that my own reasons for picking stocks, or anyone’s reasoning for that matter is not supported by the actual market outcome. The winners: Goosehead Ins, Tiptree, Digital Ocean Holdings, Mitek Systems would make up a good portfolio if the growth over the last few years continues. Losers like Shrodinger and Dream Finder Homes seemingly good reasoning behind them too but, haven’t matched the bull market in the last year.
This is a discussion topic or guest posting submitted by a Stock Gumshoe reader. The content has not been edited or reviewed by Stock Gumshoe, and any opinions expressed are those of the author alone.
That is indeed what one can see by looking at the short term, recent past (also known as “momentum”). The reason i will hold these for a long time is the hope that they are well positioned to survive and grow well into the future. THEN they can increase their share price!
Remember the warning we all see way too often: “past results do not guaranty future performance.”
True, some have been popular so far, and some less so. My focus with these is on the growth in the underlying business and the prospects that business has to surprise us with dramatic growth many years into the future. That requires some confidence that even if weโre paying elevated prices in some cases, given high and momentum-driven market valuations, that the business can grown into and beyond that valuation over time.
Iโm hopeful that there will be enough strong winners over the next few years for that portfolio to do very well, but in any given year I think itโs very likely weโll see several of these stocks lose 30-60% of their value. Thatโs hard to take, which is why locking up the shares is a helpful way to encourage patience with this group of stocks.
Iโd be delighted if all of these stocks go up 50% a year forever, but I think itโs more reasonable to hope that a couple will do that well, a couple will match the market averages, and the majority will do worse than the overall market. Thatโs likely to be enough for market beating returns, but even if thatโs how it works out it may not feel very comfortable.
It’s not ONLY uncomfortable – i just greatly improved my basis on SDGR!
Hello Travis….are you not worried about what appears to be the the tail end of 2nd phase of a major correction with 3rd phase right around corner that likely will begin with interest rate hikes to curb inflation because of federal reserve printing over $4.5 trillion this year and printing press continuing to print $ out of thin air and covid related supply chain concerns jacking up prices with new covid strain scares in the news daily.
Luckily I am available to be your new consultant and will consider shares of ROKU as compensation being you just added shares to your lock down portfolio. I will of course offer my personal guarantee that if my advice does not increase your and your subscribers gains and my 3rd phase correction forecast does not prove correct in very near future that you can cancel my consulting services immediately with no further compensation required. :O)
That’s my teaser tho much shorter than the drawn out hour long teasers you dissect with laser persission on a regular basis. I have been reading your articles for years and just joined so I could make a comment and not only warn you and your viewers about the soon to come 3rd phase correction but also warn all of you about a consumer fraud that is endangering the lives of most of you and everyone one you know.
For your family safety sake
see news video about the ion smoke alarms in most homes that Dont wake people up
In smoldering smoke yet go off in kitchen when you lightly burn toast or overcook dinner. Most all your family and friends are unaware of this consumer fraud that has been going on for over 50 years as there is no warning label. The UL rigged smoldering smoke test decades ago because it was cheaper to make ionization alarms costing only $1 vs $2 or so to make a photoelectric alarm which will sound alarm in low temp smoldering smoke conditions while your family is asleep. See new video at
http://www.smokealarmsafety.org
The Fire Chief in the video has been trying to get CPSC to ban and recall these dangerous alarms for decades yet they ignored his letters and did not even require manufactures to place a warning label on front of package despite over 90% of homes having these ion alarms and resulting in about a 3rd of all fire deaths in U.S. alone and many burn injuries to those who survived the smoke inhalation injuries.
Disclaimer… I do not sell smoke alarms on this site and this PSA and info on the website is only to warn the public of this fraud, gross negligence and corporate greed that has been taking place for last 50 years that continues to destroy families on a daily basis. I ask only that this PSA be shared with as many people as you can. TIA
Sure, I worry about everything. I just donโt fool myself into believing I can predict what will happen to the markets over the next few years. If I indulged my worries, I probably would have been in 50% cash for the past five years.
Our smoke alarms are great at going off when they get filled with dust or spiderwebsโฆ
Hello Travis ….looks like ROKU traded under $194.10 the former 52 week low which should be support however it had already broke under the 50 and 200 dma $278 and $340 awhile ago. How bad will do you think today’s news about patent infringement will hurt earnings going forward as it will likely be expensive to pay licence fees to continue sales of the products. I do believe ROKU long term is a great stock but hard times for market and ROKU are still ahead in 2022 with 4 interests rate hikes planned and ROKU last earning call did mention some supply chain issues which likely has institutions taking end of year profits on top of inflation fears and now losing patent case. I hope you are somewhat hedged against what looks to be the market mirroring the tech bubble correction of 2001.
My offer to become your new consultant still stands my friend and when your smoke alarms get dusty vacuum them out and check to see if they are ionization or photoelectric which will be identified on back plate when you twist them off. Most ion alarms will have a radioactive โข๏ธ warning label or I with circle around it or say ionization.
The patent dispute was decided last month amd didnโt seem a big deal to me, the news seems to be unchanged since the case was decided last
Month โ I think investors probably overreacted to that given the recent collapse of all the โgrowthโ names.
Hello, W0ndering if you’re adding to Schrodinger at current price range?
Me? No, my position hasnโt changed.
Mr. Thinker my feelings over many years of trying i know how it feels to believe in a “winner” that suckks much of my profit . carry on. There is hope.
Travis, I am curious that the lockbox has not had some significant adds in the last month. ( positions left and nothing looks attractive to you to lock up? I would have thought for the time frame you are looking at there would be several good possibilities especially borrowing from some of the positions you already have inside your other holdings. Just curious as to the inactivity.
I’ve been thinking and watching, for sure. Will have at least one to share later this week.