Mark Decombre of ‘Market Watch posted an article this weekend, ‘Is the market crashing? No.’ Many such blogs and articles appeared in response to the market falling almost 7% in the last few weeks. The false scenario that some of these bloggers push is that the market will continue to drop, based only on what we see in 2 weeks. Baloney!
Here is a list of the DOW highs and lows since last summer (DJIA):
high 35,625 Aug 16
low 33,844 Sep 30 5% drop
high 36,432 Nov 8 7.6% rise
low 34,022 Dec 1 6.6% drop
high 36,800 Jan 4 8.2% rise
low 34,265 Jan 21 6.88% drop
All highs were higher than the previous high and, all lows were higher than the previous low.
The NYSE shows very similar numbers. Furthermore, this latest low on Friday is 14.3% higher than the lowest low in the last year, 29,983 on Jan 25, 2021.
The next few days will show if this 34,265 that we saw on Friday will continue down or, as it has done roughly every 2 months, started a 7% to 8% rise again. The gumdrop-shaped humps are mediocre and we don’t see the meteoric rise of 16% that we saw from Jan to May last year but, nothing in the shape of the market value shows a trend towards a crash.

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