by Travis Johnson, Stock Gumshoe | March 11, 2022 6:00 am
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Source URL: https://www.stockgumshoe.com/2022/03/friday-file-nickel-potash-and-oil-oh-my/
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Hey Travis – Any thoughts on Uranium plays given the shift away from fossil fuels likely being amplified in Europe following the Russia/Ukraine conflict?
Specifically looking at miners outside of Kazakhstan given their relationship to Russia.
UEC
ur-energy inc (urg)
There are at least three consequences of US sanctions and they have let to play themselves out. The turmoil in the commodity market that the Gumshoe discusses. Also, working through the financial system are the ramifications of cutting Russia out of SWIFT. And finally, these sanctions have to accelerate the demise of the US Dollar as the reserve currency of the world. I have bought a few commodity plays (SYAAF) but mainly am shorting any market rally.
Any plays regarding fertilizer other than the potash ones mentioned?
Yes, there is a Pre-IPO gold opportunity similar to the Brazilian Potash Pre-IPO deal = https://www.madretierragold.com/
Not that I’ve looked at closely. Most of the fertilizer stocks are either giants like Nutrien and Mosaic that have many products, or are focused on nitrogen and end up being closely tied to natural gas. SQM is also big in fertilizer, though it trades primarily as a lithium story.
Hi Travis, What are your thoughts now after DocuSign reported earnings? From your discussion above “DocuSign (DOCU) Uncertain here following last night’s earnings, but for now I’m holding my “max buy” at $84”. Looks like a possible buy and hold especially at this price. Your thoughts?
I nibbled some DOCU here. Hope i was right!
Travis, appreciate your thoughts on Stephen Leeb’s “Reset” story and the small stock he promotes within that–I looked at your readers’ assessments of “the Complete investor” and I think I will save my$39, but would be interested to hear your thoughts.
Awesome timing for the Okta sell off Travis!
Thanks, though selling before the latest rumors/troubles was just luck — better timing, of course, would have been to sell before the disappointing earnings report a few weeks ago, or anywhere near the crazy highs last year… but before I saw the weakening margins and continuing projections for more of the same in their last report, I didn’t want to sell 🙂
Hello Travis – I did not realize a lot of UW team came from James River. This fact pattern would be a red flag for me given JRG’s recent results and reserve adverse deterioration on long-tail lines. I have not looked in any detail yet into either company but am interested in reviewing lines written and overlap, will revert back if I ever get to doing this.
Note – I do not own either Kinsale or James River Stock.
Alert for Brazil Potash. I’ve been contemplating for months now whether to invest in Brazil Potash’s pre-IPO deal or not. I get updates from them on their RegA+ status and the latest email update on 3/29/22 states they have signed up to use the ESG strategy. ESG is a terrible ‘woke’ strategy! I definitely won’t be investing in them now. Really sad. Here’s a snippet of the article they sent me referencing ESG. “In conjunction with the commencement of these consultations, Brazil Potash has engaged Ernest & Young LLP (EY) Canada to help us structure and package the Environment, Social and Governance (ESG) strategy for the company so we can more clearly articulate the benefits of our sustainability-related efforts. EY was selected due to their substantial experience supporting companies with similar operations and robust understanding of several ESG disclosures and rating frameworks that will play an important part in accessing large-scale development capital.” I can forward the whole email to any one who’s interested.
Any mining company that doesn’t develop an ESG plan is very unlikely to ever go public, raise meaningful money, or build a mine. You might not agree with the sentiment behind ESG investing, but as an investor you probably need to read the room — big money is very focused on environmental, social and governance issues right now.
A lot of them will be half-hearted ESG efforts, and I’m sure a lot of them are more “lip service” and less of a focus of the company, but the general trend is for more focus on ESG. I don’t see any sign of that changing, though who knows.