Friday File: Buffett goes East, Bassy Impresses, and what’s that “Fedcoin” fear about?
by Travis Johnson, Stock Gumshoe | April 14, 2023 5:13 pm
Updates on some large cap positions... plus two buys in the Real Money Portfolio
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Source URL: https://www.stockgumshoe.com/2023/04/friday-file-buffett-goes-east-bassy-impresses-and-whats-that-fedcoin-fear-about/
“Financial privacy” at its core is a code phrase for tax evasion and that equates to a fraud on the millions of honest tax payers that support all of our governmental services. No one enjoys paying taxes , but the reality is that those who want to defund the IRS are more than a major part of the tax inequity problem. They do not want their financial transactions available to the government because they have something they do not want to disclose. Greater transactional transparency means a fairer and more equitable financial system.; more traffic cameras mean fewer bad drivers on the road and more efficient policing.
Strange interpretation.. equitable is the new catch phrase for getting equal for absolutely no effort. And no, traffic cameras do not make better drivers, just ones who learn where to slow down… and then take off after. Privacy is the true definition of freedom. While some abuse it, privacy shouldn’t be stolen from the majority. Privacy is power, what people don’t know.. they can’t screw up… especially the government.. it’s a slippery slope.. and that is not “equitable” for anyone.
The only “slippery slopes” that are meaningfully tangible and visceral are those surfaces covered with the blood, brains and other body parts of children and adults murdered with automatic weapons; AND that is what is “not equitable for anyone.” Most folks can’t describe what privacy means except in the context of power and money, free from government scrutiny; free from accountability; and free from transparency. The true “parade-of-horribles” is the daily drumbeat of mass killings that do not exist in societies where automatic weapons are legally reserved for the military and the police.
This thread has NOTHING to do with “mass killings”.
As usual, discussions about firearms by people such as yourself only serve to show how little you know about fire arms.
If you really wanted to solve mass killings, you would start with the one part of the problem that actually changed over all that time, and that is the Human Component.
Societies lack of properly raising children with the correct tools to deal with rejection, failure, or something as simple as losing a sporting event (everyone gets a trophy), are the reason that the number of mass killings are rising and until we resolve those issues, no amount of new laws will solve the problem.
They will just use a rock.
Your point that there are many intractable reasons for mass killings is extremely valid. It is also valid that such reasons are not effectively addressable over any foreseeable horizon; whereas banning assault weapons has been shown to work in the short-term in other countries.
Putting armed police is schools will just divert schoolkid killings to the points of time when the kids are being unloaded from or loaded into the buses or along the routes where groups congregate for same — and it diverts funds away from educational needs.
Your point that people bent on killing will use anything, including rocks, is also equally valid, but you also know that anything short of weapons of rapid or mass destruction kill fewer people per incident than otherwise.
There is no way to avoid the conclusion that in the short-term “The assault weapon IS the problem.” Responsible gun owners will still be able to use pistols and rifles under the second amendment, but the country will be less scary for all of us with a ban on assault weapons.
The truth about assault weapons is that there is no such specific thing. So-called assault weapons are semi-automatic firearms—the gun’s most commonly used by millions of law-abiding Americans. Banning firearms because of their cosmetic features is misguided. “Assault weapon”, A political term…“ Prior to 1989, the term “assault weapon” did not exist in the lexicon of firearms. It is a political term, developed by anti-gun publicists to expand the category of “assault rifles.” A pencil used to assault someone is, by definition, an assault weapon.
Latest FBI Stats.
In 2020, all types of rifles COMBINED, were used to kill LESS THAN 500 PEOPLE!!!
650 people were killed by their assailant’s HANDS and/or FEET in 2020
KNIVES were used to kill over 1700 people in 2020!!
I have no tolerance for tax cheats, to be sure, but I worry that the dramatically increasing polarity in politics, driven by the attention that is awarded to extreme positions, will lead to much more active attempts to punish those whose purchases the party in power thinks are unwise or immoral. Our society is perfectly set up for demagoguery and rising authoritarianism, I fear, but I hope the tide will gradually shift — it usually does, eventually, but the history of democracy is not so very long so the sample size of persistent past successes is pretty small… people often give up democratic liberalism as soon as they either feel threatened, or feel that their side can “win” permanently.
Finding safety or prosperity or punishing enemies are all priorities that are often ranked ahead of more nebulous things like freedom, privacy or liberty. It’s not about red light cameras or tax cheats, really, it’s about whether the surveillance state and an unprecedented access to computing power can enable “big brother” to really rise, and whether big brother is a “Republican” or a “Democrat” is really just a matter of luck and timing. I don’t think there’s a secret cabal of people trying to make this happen, but I do think it can come naturally when politics loses any semblance of a “center” that most people can agree on.
That’s what I worry about, philosophically… though I’m not crazy enough to let that worry drive my investment decisions.
Agree except I do think there is a cabal of people trying to get total control. Now, they call themselves the World Economic Forum.
Agree 100%
Verily…DAVOS!
“…but I do think it can come naturally when politics loses any semblance of a “center” that most people can agree on.” I agree with this 100% Travis. Back in the late 70’s when I was in college as a Poly Sci/Economics major, we used to have spirited political discussions inside and outside of class. But we shared a lot of common ground back then, with maybe 80% agreement on most items. That world, I’m afraid, no longer exists.
If the January 6th riot had been successful, all of our investments would have been affected, Travis; and that is something to worry about. Trying to identify an amorphous center is difficult, but it is not impossible if we look for objective, tangible evidence of “straws in the wind” such as the most recent Presidential election; the retention of the Senate by those leftward of center; the decrease in the majority of those in the House of Representatives who are rightward of center; the election to the Supreme Court of Wisconsin by a leftward leaner; and polls showing substantial majority support for leftward positions on abortion AND assault weapons.
Continuing to shift the the centering viewpoint of thoughtful, sincere, and reflective folks along these lines and away from “demagoguery and rising authoritarianism” requires vigilance and respectful, but outspoken, dialog. Otherwise bullying and verbal and physical threats will continue to intimidate those folks who meekly and fearfully say “why can’t we all just get along.”
It is especially interesting to consider the fact that the drumbeat bullying and extreme verbal and physical threats are almost completely to be found on the right of center. Saying that doesn’t ignore or excuse the violence and looting that sporadically and infrequently arises in response to specific incidences of perceived injustice on the part of those assumed to be left of center.
Anything to say about Audrey Hale? Where does she fit in all of your analysis?
It doesn’t matter what a person’s gender is; whether it, she or he uses an assault weapon (and she had 2 of them and used at least one), the result is the same. THE ASSAULT WEAPON IS THE PROBLEM ! However it was defined previously in our law, we should return to that definition OR an improved version of it. Her privacy wasn’t invaded by the government (or her parents) until she abused it. She wouldn’t have killed so many so quickly with a rock or a knife or poison or whatever. We have nothing of value to lose by returning to ban-status while gaining a bit more comfort for the general populous.
Well then maybe you’ll agree that it doesn’t matter why she did it.
The motive, or lack thereof, of those folks that kill, while of interest from a societal perspective as a basis for understanding causes and facilitating treatments for the underlying conditions that prompt such actions, is not as significant relative to the short-term need-immediacy for short-circuiting the availability of the primary tool of mass killings — THE AK47 IS THE PROBLEM and only the military and the police should have them.
Note that some recent mass murders have been committed by first-time offenders who have no record of prior problems and have been able to acquire such weaponry without anyone being the wiser, including parents in some instances. So much for background checks and purchase-delay requirements.
A related topic that demands more public debate and consideration is whether the sale and usage of violent video games depicting the use of assault weaponry should be banned except for use by the military and police as training tools. It would be much better if our young people were provided with investment tools and instructional “games” so that the could learn how to go-long and sell-short to make and risk money and contribute their thoughts to blogs such as this one.
Yah, that’ll do the trick. More ‘games’.
If you’re serious about gun control, take the time to familiarize yourself with the ‘AK-47′. (I’m goin’ long and down and out)
Guns are not the problem or the root cause… guns have been around for decades, in racks in cars, in houses, unlocked and without the issues we see today. There is something wrong with our current culture, parenting, coping ability, mental fortitude in addition to the elimination of religion from schools and public venues. These are the things that need to be addressed. Thoughts of banning guns or a type of gun will solve the problem is an illusion.
Thank you for reinforcing my “current culture” point with regard to violent video games! Stay centered, my friend.
define “sporadic.”
Great points Travis. The far left and right seem to think the authoritarianism and dictatorships are a product of idealogy and political affiliation. In any instance sure, but they have shown up from all sides of the political spectrum over the long arc of history.
In the US, we have a decent structure with three co-equal branches of Government, separation of church and state and a constution. The problem is opportunists have taken advantage of divisions in society (“wedge issues”) to advance their priorities (“career, money, power etc”) and driven deeper wedges into society. What used to be principled differences between the two parties (with a willingness to strike compromises) has now turned into chaos. The process of sourcing and nominating judges to the Supreme court (and the “self regulation” by which they operate under lifetime positions) is another example.
Think about it, one of the few things boths sides RAPIDLY agreed upon was the corrupt, biggest heist in the history of this Republic “PPP loans”. Trillions of dollars handed to cronies on both sides of the political spectrum. The speed and rapidity in which they agreed upon that was outstanding.
But let the unwashed masses fight over abortion rights, gun rights, trans rights, reparations and donate their money to the powerful classes while the heist continues. Wake me up when Tucker Carlson shares why he continues to interview and fawn over “DEMONIC TRUMP ” (his own words in private) and when AOC explains how disinvestment in oil and gas actually helps the common person.
Guess you don’t have to worry about Tucker Carlson anymore. I just knew after he exposed the so called Jan 6 insurrection that he would be. Our current government wants nothing less than total control. They are slowly acheiving that goal. I have to agree on outlawing assault rifles but I worry that it will lead to more restrictions. This government doesn’t give a damn about us and focuses entirely on their insane ideologies
I agree except for the “Assault Rifles” reference. That would be a fully automatic military weapon and outlawed many moons ago.
They all said Orwell’s 1984″ could never happen here.
Privacy, Individual liberty, and Freedom is what The Republic is all about. The Constitution may not directly mention the right to privacy, but the implications are enough to allow for personal privacy and protection laws.
I subscribe for financial information, your research and insight, not to read someones political views. Why is this permitted?
We try not to encourage political sniping, since in this space it mostly just makes people mad, but when I write about something that has a political connection I tend to let the floodgates open a little. And, of course, whenever there’s even an oblique reference to hot-topic things like gun violence or vaccination, lots of people have strong feelings they want to share.
If you mean, why did I write about something that has a political connection in “FedCoin”, well, just because a lot of people asked about it.
Many newsletter promotions are inherently political and attempt to be extremist or divisive to get attention and/or establish that the writer is part of the same “tribe” as you, and therefore can be trusted with your $$, so political stuff does tend to come up from time to time.
It may help to keep in mind that Bitcoin etc are global assets and not intended for US only. In fact given the way regulators are playing it will basically be very difficult for a US resident to participate in crypto at all.
As for ‘taxation’ many countries have defined rules and started collecting. Three are conceptual issues with stuff like staking and NFT and at some states the country specific courts will decide .
But
Privacy is a fairly BIG and important factor for many parts of the world.
AND
Many countries like Singapore, India and some others have a Real Time Payment (RTP) or Instant Payment System (IPS) which let you transfer in a minute for close to zero fees . The past US banking payments was almost ‘Third World’ really ( sorry to provoke ) .
Let’s see the future but Facebook Libra set the cat among the central bankers and over a dozen are in pilots on Tokenized Deposits ( retail CBDC) . JPM actually is a big participant in these pilots .
The cost of Bank Runs are paid by taxpayers anyway and there are emerging approaches avoiding fractional banking and reserves that may vastly reduce cost to taxpayers for periodic too-small-to-fail banks (-;
Knowing your preference for royalty stocks I was wondering what your take is on the royalty pitch being made by Marc Under the oxford club newsletter. Permian basin stock selling around $25 dollars a share. Sounds very interesting?
Covered that one a couple weeks ago… I do love royalties, but at least in the near term I really disagree with Lichtenfeld about this one: https://www.stockgumshoe.com/reviews/oxford-income-letter-the/oxfords-my-1-oil-and-gas-royalty-for-2023/
I wish I had your optimism! After witnessing what our Government was able to do with the past virus scare, another false flag and they could demand one turn in their cash until it is not accepted as currency. Look at what China does with it’s merit system. Why waste time eliminating the penny when all of cash may soon be eliminated? We’ve slowly been made accustomed to using credit cards and debit cards. It’s not a stretch to see how and why our Government can demand total control just as they did with the vaccine passport! Scary!
Politics, the business side of public service, allows for both the best and worst in humanity. It’s not enough that Politics evolves into an ugly business in a country; prior to expiry, it must also become a dirty business before the process completes. That’s the stage in which we now find ourselves wherein Governance has become Farce.
Every thinking person, whether scientist or artist, is aware of the dynamic. The cleanest example I think of representing the condition is Al Capp drawing Moonbeam McSwine into his stories.
Heavy Reading
Regarding AMZN. It is widely documented that the companies that lead the last bull market won’t lead the next one. Cisco and Intel were monsters in the 90s with both compounding at up to 100% annually for years. Both are essentially the same size as they were in 2000. Who will be the CISCO for the net bull run? I, like everyone else, don’t know. But of the big names today (AAPL, MSFT, META, GOOG) I think AMZN is the weakest or most likely candidate. They have a AWS, but also a huge CapEx investment in their delivery business. AWS is facing more competition as ORCL has quickly become a notable cloud player. MSFT and GOOG seem to leading the AI race. AAPL is AAPL, and although their growth rate is steadily declining, everyone believes they will somehow find the next iPod, IPhone, or whatever best in class consume device that is needed. META is simply repulsive to me (yea, its personal). Buffett once said he simply can’t do business with someone he can’t trust. We’ll I can’t trust a guy who built a business on a platform initially meant to shame his fellow students, then used it to incite teenage users through hate speech, and now wants to get inside our heads. Possibly a good investment. But there are plenty of others. I’ll pass. Full disclosure. I own AMZN, but do wonder if they are the new Cisco.
Completely agree. These are the old guard. The fact that AI breakthrough came from a tiny “non profit hybrid” called Open AI and not these giants that invested billions in it only reinforces the case. BARD uses Chat GPT in the back end for a lot of the loads, LOL.
The last leaders have likely seen lifetime if not multi-decade tops. Intel, CSCO, GE, SONY come to mind. I dont see the chance for significant capital appreciation.