Friday File: Best of 2023

9 responses to “Friday File: Best of 2023”

1. voodooeconomics says:

   December 22, 2023 at 10:15 am

   Thanks and have a great Holiday Travis.

   Reply
   • Travis Johnson, Stock Gumshoe says:

     December 22, 2023 at 10:17 am

     Same to you, thanks!

     Reply
2. timcoahran says:

   December 23, 2023 at 12:07 pm

   Hey there’s an HTML typo in here:
   ‘Cbattery-storage-check-in-plus-a-new-hard-to-buy-stock-and-some-reit-updates/”>hapters Group’

   Pls delete this comment after checking.
   Tim

   Reply
3. iltrus says:

   December 24, 2023 at 9:15 am

   To Travis and the entire gumshoe family, a very Merry Christmas and a wonderful New Year filled with health, happiness, love and success <3

   Reply
4. gatbushing says:

   December 24, 2023 at 6:56 pm

   what does “nit King” mean above?

   Reply
5. kalarun says:

   December 29, 2023 at 12:18 am

   A very happy 2024 to you and your team members at Stock Gumshoe, Travis. Much appreciate and grateful for your valued advice over the past 10 years. Wishing you the very best for years ahead!

   Reply
6. growthguy says:

   January 5, 2024 at 10:51 am

   Hi Travis. Looks like the worst case scenario is developing for MPW.
   Would be interested in your thoughts. Thanks.

   Reply
   • Travis Johnson, Stock Gumshoe says:

     January 5, 2024 at 12:54 pm

     I saw the news last night but haven’t looked very closely at it — looks very much like MPW is again being forced to send good money after bad with Steward, continuing to write down assets and forgive loans and give Steward more money in hopes that it will mean Steward doesn’t go bankrupt, and can keep paying at least the partial rent they’ve been paying.

     For those who haven’t followed the story, it looks very much like more of the same — here’s what I noted when someone asked about the stock back in September:

     Management tried to tell us, for years, that they were acting like private equity guys, maxing out their compensation and spending on themselves and levering up too much during good times and throwing investors’ money after bad and overly levered tenants like Steward and Prospect, who themselves were managing hospitals that were constantly criticized by regulators and local residents, and in constant need of refinancing their own debt, all so everyone could keep the rent checks coming and keep up appearances, with heavy reliance on adjustments to make the cash flow look steady and improving (“normalized” and “adjusted” FFO). Most companies do a little bit of that, and sometimes we fall into the trap of getting used to the creep of bad management, but they pushed the envelope, and eventually I began to believe what they were trying to tell us about their priorities and their ethics, and I finally sold at about $16 when we got a further signal of how tough it would be to fix things (that was when one of their deals fell through, to sell a bunch of Steward hospitals in Utah). It has only gotten worse since then, as far as I can tell.

     I’ll see if I can dig into the story a little more, but I’m certainly not tempted to buy. They’ve gotten some relief as interest rats have moderated a little over the past six months, but it looks like the tenants still stink and the leverage is getting more expensive, and every dip down on bad news makes the balance sheet worse, which makes a death spiral look more likely.

     Reply
7. ponchopete says:

   January 19, 2024 at 10:51 pm

   Best sentence of the article! “And more importantly, all of that options speculation gives me a gambling outlet, letting off that steam so those tendencies don’t creep too far into the “real” part of my portfolio.”

   Reply

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