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think_theta_positive

Microblogs

Hi everyone, I am a brand new irregular, very much impressed by the rich content of this site, Travis’ contributions and the lively discussions in the community. This is my first post. I consider myself a long-term investor, not a trader, who is using options to build-up stock positions and manage risk. Fifteen years ago, […]

Recent Author Comments

On "The Next Google" Answers: "Eccentric Billionaire Makes a Big Bet on a Tiny AI Company" tease from Green Zone Fortunes

Peculiar stock, this OPRA. 5y sales CAGR of 20%, no debt, buybacks and a 5% div yield, yet trading at a P/E (NTM) of 16. Still under the newsletter radar. A baby GOOGL of the AI era?[...]

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On More Advertising for the Lock Box

Interesting niche player. Historical growth numbers are impressive but I wonder how the ongoing AI revolution will impact their business? How vulnerable is demand for DV’s services when big tech players like GOOGL and META will increasingly use AI to boo[...]

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On Amazon buying a Credit Card company on April 27? What's teased as a "21X Profit Shot" by Takeover Trader?

Strange comment. At expiration, an ITM option contract will be exercised, period. For every seller, there must be a buyer. Who else is on the other side of the trade, you think?[...]

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On Microblog: On synthetic covered calls

Yesterday’s price jump in OPTT triggered my GTC call sell orders (on 2/3 of the position):Sell Jan20’23 strike 2,5 call for 0,4 creditI left quite some money on the table as the same calls sold for 0,65 later in the day, but that is the price t[...]

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On Microblog: On synthetic covered calls

Today I am celebrating the first anniversary of my little microblog, comfortably hidden in one of the dustier corners of StockGumshoe’s polygonal universe. Unknowingly, it looks like I have provided generations far into the future with a tale of what sto[...]

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On Friday File: Inflation Worries, Renewing a Hedge, and Investing in Dividend Growth

Stay far away from leveraged etfs for hedging purposes; please google ‘volatility drag’ or ‘beta slippage’ to understand why.[...]

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On Microblog: Impending crash/correction? What does everyone believe is currently set to play out and how are you responding personally? Advice plse!!

Wise words Tim. I never sell either. Investing is a mind game and you are the worst enemy of your success. Adopting buy and hold as a strategy is a process that has to grow on you. I remember when I started swing trading fifteen years ago that like-minded [...]

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On Microblog: Impending crash/correction? What does everyone believe is currently set to play out and how are you responding personally? Advice plse!!

Wise words. I never sell either. Investing is a mind game and you are the worst enemy of your success. Adopting buy and hold as a strategy is a process that has to grow on you. I remember when I started swing trading fifteen years ago that like-minded trad[...]

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On Microblog: Impending crash/correction? What does everyone believe is currently set to play out and how are you responding personally? Advice plse!!

Wise words. I never sell either. Investing is a mindgame and you are the worst enemy of your success. Adopting buy and hold as a strategy is a process that has to grow on you. I remember when I started swing trading fifteen years ago that like-minded trade[...]

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On Friday File: Pandemic Darlings Continue to Fall on Hard Times... which are worth buying?

Very interesting observation on ROKU's volatility, thanks for pointing your followers to that MF article. High volatility is just a feature of reality for growth stocks: if you are scared of it, you will lose; if you learn to embrace it, you might win.[...]

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On Microblog: On synthetic covered calls

Hi Tim,I do not remember giving any clues before, but I have one for you today as I am living in the city where option contracts were invented and first traded (in the beginning of the 17th century)! How fitting, isn't it?Yes, 'time in' rather than[...]

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On Microblog: On synthetic covered calls

Hi SillyRabbit,You are welcome. I will analyze both positions more extensively in February, when I am exactly one year in both trades. The goal of this microblog has always been to demonstrate how selling options can be used to manage risk within a lon[...]

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On Microblog: On synthetic covered calls

Rolling out the cash secured puts on both $NNDM and $OPTT in order to avoid gamma fear and (early) assignment risk this week. Below the specifics (for whoever might be interested):NNDM: Buy Nov19'21 strike 5 put for 0,05 debit Sell Feb18'22 strike 5 [...]

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On Microblog: On synthetic covered calls

The more LMND shares drop in value by the time the deal closes (Q2, 2022), the cheaper the deal becomes and hence the bigger the holdup on MILE shareholders. What a perverse situation! For sure, I’ll vote against the deal, like many retail investors will[...]

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On Microblog: On synthetic covered calls

What to think of the MILE-LMND 19-1 stock deal? At yesterday’s closing price of $70.5 per LMND share, it apparently values 1 MILE share at $3,71. Seriously? How many months are we after the SPAC deal and the consequent mania running it up to $20? Did the[...]

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On What's this "Plastic Killer Set to go Vertical" Stock? Kofyman teases that "This $2.5 Trillion Battle Could Be the Biggest Opportunity in our Lifetimes"

Wasn't MF 10X darling DNMR supposed to be promising in this space? Good example of spac mania, post-spac nightmare currently though.[...]

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On De-teasing Carr's "Future King of Streaming"

“And the options play I’m recommending with it, although higher risk, also comes with 7X potential in the next five months.”I don’t know how advanced this author is in his option recommendations, but if 7X potential is explicitly promised, the [...]

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On Microblog: On synthetic covered calls

$NNDM: with elevated implied volatility (because earnings report today), strike 5 nearing ATM (yesterday's close 5.39) and an oversold RSI(14) reading (29.21 to be precise), maybe a good time for some action, so:Sold Nov19’21 strike 5 put for 0.8 cre[...]

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On Microblog: On synthetic covered calls

Good to hear from you, Tim, thanks for your message! I'd love to visit Alaska with my family one day, it sounds great. Here in Europe travel between countries is still restricted with regulations changing by the week, so our holiday plans are still uncerta[...]

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On What's the Fool's "Under the Radar" Gaming Stock being teased by IPO Trailblazers?

Indeed. To find the correct strike that yields 900%, you need to solve ((x-360)-11.6)/11.6=9 for x, which is 476. Of course, this result only holds on expiration day, when all time premium in your call option has evaporated.[...]

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