Weekly comments from Stock Gumshoe, almost always published on Fridays (plus some occasional extra notes as news warrants)
Here’s what I’m trying to avoid: Predicting the direction of the markets because of my deep understanding of US-China trade dynamics. Every time I read an article that asserts “China trade deal more likely because of Bolton firing” or something like that, I throw up in my mouth a little bit. The market is way […]
Gold had its worst day yesterday since 2016, so that was a little shock to the system — mostly, I think, because the latest leaks and Tweets about the China trade dispute were relatively optimistic, with meetings scheduled for next month. It’s hard to imagine we’re going to have a “real” trade deal before the […]
Things began slowly this week after a weekend of decadence in Las Vegas… what impressions did I have of Sin City? People aren’t gambling as much as the last time I was here a few years ago, the tables and slot machines were not so crowded, but there were still some big crowds of people […]
Today I’ve got a few portfolio moves to share with you that go against the Wall Street mantra (“sell your losers, let your winners run”)… last night I sold my position in Kweichow Moutai in China — this is a fantastic company, mostly because they have insanely high profit margins on their signature Moutai liquor… […]
What’s going on with the market this week? Well, the accepted narrative keeps shifting — first we had trade war panic as Trump announced new tariffs last week, then celebration as those tariffs were delayed to ‘save Christmas’, and the market is overly obsessed with the high-level game of chicken being played by Trump and […]
I covered a “powdered plasma” ad from Michael Robinson just yesterday, but it turns out the he’s also flogging “cryogenic blood” separately, in different ads for his same Nova-X Report newsletter, so I thought I better follow up to get rid of any confusion. The Thinkolator concluded that yesterday’s ad, teasing a Pennsylvania company, was […]
Another week of fussing about macro issues that we can neither control nor predict, what fun! The Federal Reserve did exactly what the market demanded in cutting rates, but the market was still mad because they failed to promise that they would give us each a pony. President Trump seemed angered by the lack of […]
Thanks for your kind wishes (and patience) as I took a couple weeks off with my family — we had a wonderful and relaxing getaway in a few of the jewels of the Rocky Mountains as we toured through some northern national parks, most of them blessedly devoid of cell phone service or wifi, but […]
I’m off to spend a couple weeks walking in the woods with Mrs. Gumshoe and the Little Gumshoes (though they’d probably want me to note that they aren’t so little these days), so we won’t have much in the way of new content at Stock Gumshoe for the next two weeks, and the next Friday […]
Happy Friday, friends! I don’t have any big news on the Real Money Portfolio to dig into at the moment (though the updated portfolio is here, FYI), so I’ll spend my Friday time with you sifting through another teaser pitch and getting you some answers… then we’ll get to a couple quick updates and thoughts […]
Indulge me for a moment, dear reader — I’m going to wander around thinking about valuation and about short selling, then get into talking about a current situation that closely mirrors some of the long/short pairs trades I’ve done in the past year or so. Then we’ll talk some about gold, since that seems to […]
There’s no more cyclical stock than a semiconductor stock, and we’re seeing the whipsaw slash through that market now as trade sentiment weakens and pundits begin to see some weakness in the economy, particularly in the employment numbers, and the Federal Reserve fuels that uncertainty by essentially promising a rate cut in their attempt to […]
I don’t usually make a point of meeting or interviewing executives, mostly because I don’t want to be swayed by personal impressions of people who probably wouldn’t be in their position unless they were personable and appealing… but when you’re really dealing with a “bet the jockey” stock like Boston Omaha (BOMN), it is important […]
The jobs report from ADP was frightening on Wednesday, bringing more fear that the trade war uncertainty and/or some shift in sentiment is cutting business spending, and it seems to be contributing to the rapid “narrative shift” that has happened this year — whereas we were all shocked that the Fed would even consider cutting […]
Sometimes I get so deep in the weeds in struggling through the absurd promises and promotions from investment newsletters that I forget to mention the one key common-sense tool that we all have at our disposal: If it sounds way to good to be true, it’s not true. Sadly, in the world of investing we […]
Here’s your assigned reading for the week: Go check out Stop the financial pornography! from Nick Maggiulli. A good reminder of how manipulated we all can be by attention-getting investment and economic news that doesn’t really have any relevance. Don’t worry, it’s short. So… what’s up this week? Leading the news for me, outside of […]
So… anything happen this week? 🙂 We’ll start with a few headline-grabbers from the Real Money Portfolio in the technology world, slide into a little teaser solution for you, and then share some updates on a couple small buys I made, plus some additions to the watchlist, along with the usual blather… Xilinx (XLNX) had […]
I’ve got a new buy to go into in some detail today, but first let’s go through some meaningful earnings reports that shook up the Real Money Portfolio this week and sent some questions my way… The Trade Desk (TTD) beat the analyst expectations for both revenue and earnings this quarter, but not in a […]
I’m a little sad not to be in Omaha this weekend for the Berkshire meeting, but I’ll be watching some of the Q&A tomorrow to see how Warren and Charlie are looking and try to get some little nuggets of wisdom from them. The biggest news lately from Berkshire Hathaway (BRK-B) is that they’re at […]
Happy weekend, campers! Here’s a good quick read for you to start the weekend from Vitaliy Katsenelson, who is a smarter guy than me. It’s called Want to Be a Better Investor? Stop Staring at Your Portfolio… and it got me thinking a little bit. Here’s a little excerpt: “You spend hundreds of hours on […]