Recent Comments

  • 1) A statement is true to the extent it corresponds to the objective facts. " I don’t think that the SPLC is in any way a “terrorist organization.” is a false statement. You are a typical leftist - get your head out of the sand!. 2) email send, give me a refund -- I don't want my money supporting terrorist organizations (to the extent I can control it). 3) that's a shame, he was the reason...

  • Why Diversification Makes a Precious Metals Portfolio Stronger https://mailchi.mp/visualcapitalist/diversification-precious-metals?e=fbaf4b57b3...

  • Travis Johnson, Stock Gumshoe

    Think of it as distributing the earnings from a future transactional processing business -- instead of the fee being earned by MasterCard and its banks, for example, it is earned by the network... and the network is made up of "miners" who solve complex equations rapidly to earn the right to check and verify transactions and add them to the blockchain. So the new coins are created by the act of ...

  • Gr8Full!

    $SESN wow > Phase 3 Registration Trial for Non-Muscle Invasive Bladder Cancer Achieves 42% Complete Response Rate at Three Months in Carcinoma in Situ Patients Sesen Bio (Formally Eleven Biotherapeutics) Reports Positive, Three-Month Data from VISTA Trial of Vicinium™ in High-Grade NMIBC Data Presented During Plenary Session at American Urological Association Annual Meeting Company to Hos...

  • Travis Johnson, Stock Gumshoe

    I don't know, but one result of the massive explosion in income inequality over the past couple decades has been a tremendous rise in philanthropy -- so lots of great projects are being funded, though I expect the "donor payback" ones and the similar "social investment" cooperatives are likely to remain small-time. You can't scale community involvement, for most small donors that has to be local ...

  • Travis Johnson, Stock Gumshoe

    I have a BA in government from Cornell, and a Masters in Information Science from the University of Maryland. I have been, among other professions, a world champion ice cream scooper, a fundraising copywriter, and a tenure-track academic, and gave it all up to write about money and solve puzzles. I've been married to a wonderful woman for 2o years (in July), and we have three kids and three dogs...

  • It would be the beginning of having our currency backed by "Not a Finite resource." Already the CO2 levels in the atmosphere are considered "beyond the tipping point" and fields can process it into clean air quickly. It would be the end if this change didn't happen....

  • Travis Johnson, Stock Gumshoe

    I don't invest directly on the JSE. Interactive Brokers is the broker I most often use to buy direct on overseas exchanges, but they don't have equity access to South Africa (they do offer contracts for difference in SA). The only South African companies I've ever owned were Sasol and Naspers, the latter of which I still own, and I bought both OTC in the US (or through actual US listings, wh...

  • Travis Johnson, Stock Gumshoe

    Homes are great places to live and spend time, but usually not the best investment. Buying rental property can certainly work if you're in the right area and have the time to put into management, but I tend to think that buying a second home is an indulgence, not an investment. Doesn't mean it's bad, we bought a little condo near the beach a few years back and it has been a life-changing de...

  • Most Excellent Stock Gumshoe I would like to invest in distressed stocks (looking at your past turkey ICON for one). What is the best way to research future earning potential vs. debt obligation? I know that a $.70 stock can become a $0 stock. How do you place a net present value on a stock that has been kicked in the teeth?...

  • Travis Johnson, Stock Gumshoe

    I don't like the wholesale marijuana business or the growers very much, I expect that will be commoditized and that pricing will be weaker than the producers are hoping because of all the capital rushing into the growing business. I'd look for retail brands that are able to attract a loyal following without heavy marketing, and I'd be patient about letting them emerge before investing -- I haven'...

  • All my pot stocks are up. I assume it's because it's nearing June and Cali went legal. I bought them at the end of February in that giant lull of Trumps trade war BS. I am still skeptical of crypto currencies but one backed by pot is a great idea as the oz/gram value remains constant, high, and solid. I think it would be a better bet than bitcoin....

  • Travis Johnson, Stock Gumshoe

    Hi Dean, covered that one here: https://www.stockgumshoe.com/2018/05/friday-file-anheuser-busch-has-their-sights-on-one-specific-microcap-marijuana-company/...

  • Travis Johnson, Stock Gumshoe

    I took a tax loss on Equinox shares late last year, and bought them back a bit later, but have generally been too optimistic on this one in recent years. I still think it's a very compelling story, but admit that it is not all that cheap, partly because dealmaking with much earlier-stage juniors to create Equinox over the past couple years has diluted the near-term impact of gold production fr...

  • Fair enough about perceptions for those who have lost $ here, Wade. I'm more than hanging in there and still foresee a significant price rise as the single most likely outcome. Second most likely outcome is a short-term hiccup that delays sustained profitability and consequent rise in share price. Consider just a few basics: Fracking appears here to stay (and the primary reason the US is now...

  • Travis Johnson, Stock Gumshoe

    I have speculated on bitcoin in the past, though I sold the vast majority of my cryptocurrencies last Fall when I realized I was unable to make any rational assessment of the price. I do still have a trivial amount in a couple wallets (bitcoin and ethereum), but I find the blockchain stories and the long-term potential disruption of some businesses more interesting than the prices of any particul...

  • Travis Johnson, Stock Gumshoe

    The current volatility quotient stop loss from TradeStops would be just under $155, about an 18% stop loss. Makes as much sense as anything else, I suppose, though I do think AAPL shares are higher risk than the market is currently thinking. It would take some pretty bad news about the next iPhone to drive Apple to that level at this point, I would guess, given the strong buying pressure from f...

  • Numerous things on this web page under clean teq are confusing. Under short interest it shows on 4/13 1,161,057 shares and a negative 30% change. Then on 4/30 812,344 shares and plus 52.67% change. Why does the number of shares short go down and percent change positive? Also there's a bid of 10000 shares for .01 and an ask for 3.00? And is this web page a reliable source of information? http...

  • Travis Johnson, Stock Gumshoe

    I use stop loss triggers to trigger decisionmaking and re-analysis, not to automatically sell a stock. I particularly like the TradeStops volatility quotient stop loss triggers, which is what I track for my portfolio -- those essentially set a stop loss based on the trailing volatility for the stock, so if it's a stock that goes up and down pretty wildly in the course of "normal" trading the stop...

  • Travis Johnson, Stock Gumshoe

    China is manipulating their numbers, certainly, and having a command economy with so many state-owned enterprises means they could report pretty much whatever they want much of the time. Large Chinese companies I think are less likely to be lying about their financials in a wholesale way, though there are so many reports about fraud and dissembling that you never know for sure. That's a risk...

  • My wife is a surgeon, and I've heard the war stories through her entire training and years of practice. This gives me some perspective. A depressing fact is that there is relatively little you can positively determine by chatting with or interviewing the doctor or hospital staff. Most staff are trained to inform and to reassure within limits, and you aren't easily going to ask a question that b...

  • cavemann

    Wayne, as a paying member, I get to read Travis' picks and his thinking behind them. Some of them I invest in myself if I agree with his views on the stock or sector in particular - in my case MPW and ATUSF were stocks he bought that I decided I wanted as well once I looked into them. I've even beaten him into a couple. But in the end, it all comes down to your own research, risk tolerance, and...

  • Look at his latest teaser! This time it's a mysterious $ 2,000 p/a service for making money in max. 90 seconds per "trick" !!!??? https://pro.agorafinancial.com/p/RLA_10KChallenge_0518/ERLAU510/Full?a=13&o=71452&s=85271&u=4773387&l=1261685&r=MC2&vid=4rKfHH&g=0&h=true...

  • Did you find your 10? I'm interested. Any more info?...

  • I could be persuaded to be one of the 10. How's it going? Any more info?...

  • Travis Johnson, Stock Gumshoe

    That's a good basic overview. Market makers have changed quite a bit over the decades and don't play as large a role anymore, with so much of trading computerized in matching trades, but they are still important in providing liquidity at exactly the moment that no one else wants to provide liquidity. Whenever you hear someone talking about how the "market makers" are screwing them over, or dr...

  • $MGX lp I just found this piece, and didn't see it anywhere on here: https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-05-03/fmc-is-about-to-find-out-how-much-big-lithium-is-worth-with-ipo Also, don't forget this MGX announcement about their own spin off coming up: https://www.mgxminerals.com/investors/news/2018/354-mgx-minerals-announces-record-date-for-dividend-of-zincnyx-energy-solutions-shar...

  • Travis Johnson, Stock Gumshoe

    If you don't day-trade, and aren't an institutional investor, then the minor amount of friction in the market (bid/ask gap, commissions, fees) is utterly inconsequential. I don't waste my time worrying about it... but then, I'm not trying to sell a trading "master class." The market is dramatically more efficient than it was even 20-30 years ago, and commissions, fees and other friction are al...

  • Anyone know of similar companies in this field? Who is Teledoc competition?...

  • Travis Johnson, Stock Gumshoe

    Seems dumb, right? I don't know for sure, but I suspect they're trying to have it both ways -- have a rational price target, but not have to call it a "sell" and possibly hurt their firm's ability to get investment banking business from the company, or have the folks on CNBC make fun of them if the stock keeps going up....

  • Travis Johnson, Stock Gumshoe

    Yep, as far as I know Musk is the only investor so far in The Boring Company. But that will certainly change if they ramp up much more, that's going to be a hella expensive infrastructure project once (if) they get past a test tunnel....

  • Travis Johnson, Stock Gumshoe

    Not specifically, but I tell them what I'm buying and selling (and thinking about buying or selling), and why, and share my stock portfolio with them, along with a bit more opinion than I typically offer in the free articles....

  • Travis Johnson, Stock Gumshoe

    OK, you win! There's nothing like those whipping winter winds in the plains....

  • Travis Johnson, Stock Gumshoe

    Most publicly traded companies that are unprofitable are "hope for growth" stocks -- and investors are often willing to pay for growth (sometimes way too much). Often, particularly these days, they have abundant cash from either early investors or from the IPO, and as long as the growth metrics remain exciting they will have no trouble raising more equity by selling more shares. Equity doesn't ...

  • It would depend on whether or not you only invest in the future hopes of small companies, or mix 'em up and also keep established or at least operating ones as well. I lost most of my money chasing the dream, and should have kept a good mix in the portfolio. My mistake. But that is how I see it now, after my unfortunate decisions....

  • Travis Johnson, Stock Gumshoe

    Makes sense. That's not a limit order, it's a trigger order (only gets placed after some other event takes place -- in this case, the stock falling through a particular price point, at which point it becomes a market sell order)....

  • Travis Johnson, Stock Gumshoe

    Probably not anytime soon, companies are rushing to try to dominate the market with hopes of future profitability -- but they don't have any actual cash flow to speak of yet, so to grow and invest they have to sell more shares (or borrow money, or use their stock as a currency to buy other companies). I don't know anything about Arch Therapeutics, other than that it's developing a product and h...

  • Does not meeting Mamphilly mean you have no opinion regarding what he espouses in his newsletter pitches which is reasonable to assume you have seen? I think you dodged the question, am I wrong?...

  • Just guessing, but one of them might be SNP which will have their engineering and construction subsidiary listed on the MSCI China A Share Onshore Index. You can look up the names of all of the companies being added on the MSCI site. Shares in SNP have jumped since Friday....

  • Travis Johnson, Stock Gumshoe

    I think I'll probably keep buying a bit every now and then. And hoping that it doesn't go up too sharply, since that will be an indicator that the rest of my portfolio is probably getting clobbered. The presentations and commentary I've heard about gold is pretty focused on interest rates and the pressure that a strengthening dollar puts on gold in the near term, and about the fact that gold n...

  • Travis Johnson, Stock Gumshoe

    Yes, but mostly the same regulations as any other publishers. When it comes to the SEC, mostly it's about disclosure -- my impression is that the government will let you do terrible things to people as long as you tell them what you're doing, and the fact that you tell them in the fine print often means they don't realize they're being screwed. For the most part, the newsletters are publishi...

  • The answer I have is this. Paul specified TER a ffurtherw years ago. I did buy options on this and made over 75% Did not gt out in time (GREED), so I have lost 1/2 the profits. He also recommended NVDA and MSFT. Both are doing well. I did not subscribe further. Kash...

  • Travis Johnson, Stock Gumshoe

    I don't know how you should structure your portfolio. I'm structuring mine with an above-average allocation to cash because I don't see lots of compelling "back up the truck" opportunities, hedging a little in case we have a catastrophic crash, and buying small bites of long-term investments that look worthwhile from time to time. The most compelling forecast I've seen is from David Rosenber...

  • Travis Johnson, Stock Gumshoe

    I find the logic compelling, that private investors shouldn't have been cut out of the cash flow after Fannie Mae recovered, and that there should be a more robust private backstop to the mortgage market instead of a nationalized entity... but I have no idea whether those angry investors will make any progress in court. Then again, the whole idea was stupid in the first place -- it worked to ...

  • Travis Johnson, Stock Gumshoe

    It's not worth paying to buy a stock recommendation, and slavishly following a newsletter portfolio is not likely to beat the market, but it is worth paying to read an interesting editor who has a point of view and analytical style that you can learn from. Reading widely is easier now than it has ever been, and reading the work of people with strong opinions and rigorous analysis is always helpf...

  • Squirrel...no one has made the connection on vanadium. I shrink to name a number on the stock price. There are big waves coming. Nickel, cobalt. Then water Then scandium Then water gain Then vanadium Then God-knows-what-else I tell you: we will get years of appreciation out of this stock. Just imagine what happens to valuations when they are in production with higher percent...

  • iQIYI’s offline move comes at a time when video streaming and theatrical cinema in China are both expanding rapidly. China now has as many cinemas as North America and its box office last year swelled to $8.6 billion. Yuke theatres will enable consumers to select the content, as well as the time and location for viewing. The small-scale theatre will feature all the technology and facilities of s...

  • Travis Johnson, Stock Gumshoe

    I've never been a sell-side analyst, but often companies don't get analyst coverage until they grow or until they begin to need more capital -- part of the reason an investment bank covers a stock is that they'd like to get business from that company (helping them raise money). I haven't noticed analysts consistently only recommending stocks that have "broken out", but you definitely do notic...

  • Travis Johnson, Stock Gumshoe

    It's got a unicorn as CEO. Just kidding... but not entirely. Those opportunities are rare, and usually come along only when the world is in a panic and sells off the good along with the bad. You usually can't buy a great company at a great price -- you either buy a good company at a great price and hope the company becomes great, or buy a great company at a good price and hope you didn...

  • Yes, with any investment risk and proper money management is paramount. He does recommend usually 25% stops. Not a stop for the faint of heart or dearth of funds....

View More Articles