We’ve been getting teaser pitches for a “forever battery” for years now, ever since the earliest solid state battery companies began to come public (and even before, actually). One of the most frequently trumpeted ads for a “forever battery” came from Paul Mampilly at Banyan Hill in a very misleading pitch that primarily focused on a private company we can’t invest in (but threw in some recommendations on the side, while we wait for that company, Sila Nanotechnologies, to come public). He typically called that a “12 million mile battery” in those ads, which started about two years ago… but now Mampilly is leaving Banyan Hill, and the eyeball-catching “forever battery” idea remains enticing to investors, so we’re seeing a lot more questions about the “forever battery” spiel for a different Banyan Hill letter, Charles Mizrahi’s Alpha Investor.
This ad actually started running in August of last year, though it didn’t get a ton of traction at the time, and we did cover it about six months ago, though that coverage was buried in an article I wrote that touched on half a dozen different “forever battery” ideas that were circulating.
So let’s check in on that again, see if we can answer the latest round of questions from readers, and confirm that Mizrahi is still pitching the same story. And we can also dig into the second stock he’s pitching, which I haven’t covered in the past… the first “special report” Mizrahi is peddling is, “The Forever Battery: How to Profit as EV Sales Grow 1,500% Over the Next 4 Years”; and the second is “A New Era of Energy Storage: The Hottest Breakthrough of the 21st Century.”
The promise is, as always very compelling — and the copywriters manage to both drive a FOMO feeling and cover their butts by reminding us that betting your future on a single stock is dumb:
“As the Forever Battery triggers the mass adoption of electric vehicles, the stock in Charles’ report could help you find financial freedom.
“Remember, though, nothing in the world of tech innovation is a sure thing.
“So if you decide to invest, you shouldn’t go all-in on this one stock.
“But the upside is so massive … just a small stake of $1,000 could hand you a potential fortune within five years — if you get started today.”
But the tease is still the same as it was a year ago:
“All told, we’re looking at an estimated $5 TRILLION in new wealth being created.
“Even if you get a tiny piece of that, it could move you closer to the financial future you’ve dreamed of … or at the very least, give you enough money to enjoy life more.
“When The New York Times said “it has the potential to mint the next Steve Jobs,” THIS is what they were referring to.
“Simply put, the Forever Battery is more than just a revolution … it’s an unstoppable force…
“And one company is at the heart of it all.
“Renowned scientist Paul Albertus says the company has hit a ‘home run in terms of their solid-state battery performance data.’
“A senior analyst at Investor Place, Luke Lango, calls it ‘a revolutionary company in its own right’ … and says that right now is ‘a golden buying opportunity’ for investors.
“Inside Charles’ report, you’ll learn the details of the world-changing Forever Battery…
“You’ll also learn the ticker symbol … and how much his research indicates the stock could go up.
“As the Forever Battery fuels a 1,500% surge in EV sales, the potential for massive gains skyrockets.”
Well, if it was a “golden buying opportunity” a year ago, I guess it’s still golden at half the price now… that tease points at solid state battery pioneer QuantumScape (QS), which was around $22 at the time this ad was first running. That seemed like a “discount” at the time to a lot of people, since Quantumscape was one of the wildest “mania” stocks of late 2020 and early 2021 after it came public through a SPAC merger, soaring briefly to a valuation of almost $50 billion and a $100+ share price, despite the fact that it was (and is) still really a lab doing R&D work, with several years yet to go before they can hope to have a commercial product.
Today, we’re back to something closer to the valuation that was imagined when they first talked up their SPAC merger in 2020, they have a market cap of under $5 billion, the shares are at about $11, and perhaps we can look at the stock a little more rationally today. They’re still several years away from having a commercial product, analysts think a little bit of revenue will trickle through on their milestone payments and initial test products over the next year or two, but they’re going to be burning cash, probably at a pretty similar rate to today (roughly $300 million a year) until at least 2025. They’ve sold a ton of stock since going public, so they have the money, and they have the industrial partnerships, but what they don’t have is a guarantee. We can’t know if their technological advancements will continue, or if they will hit their goals in terms of commercializing their solid state battery technology — they might, and plenty of people say they are the leading lab in this space, and have the most potential, but the steps forward in technology are not necessarily predictable.
There’s a good Electrek article about Quantumscape’s progress here — they’ve added a couple new (unnamed) automotive partners, building on their longtime relationship with Volkswagen, so they now have six OEM partners in total. They’ve also continue to iterate their technology, which is a lithium metal solid state battery with a ceramic layer, and report that they have put their first 24-layer cell through initial testing, so they should be able to provide those cells to their automotive partners for Sample A testing. The indication so far is that moving from Sample A to B (larger scale) testing and then to a Sample C product, which would really be a prototype and ready for real-world testing and perhaps commercial-scale development, is probably going to take at least three years (18 months to go from A to B, then another 18 months to get to C). Right now they’re about to start Sample A deliveries, hopefully by the end of the year, so probably the most optimistic scenario is a prototype ready to be tested on the road at the end of 2025, and that assumes no big delays along the way.
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Everything from the company still sounds optimistic and positive about their ability to push EVs forward with their faster-charging, safer solid state batteries, and when it comes to solid state automotive batteries I don’t know of anyone who is meaningfully far ahead of Quantumscape when it comes to a timeline for commercial production… but it’s still a story of going from the lab to the factory, and that’s a complex and time-consuming process. I wouldn’t talk you out of investing in Quantumscape at this point, at $5 billion and with a strong head of steam and good partnerships it may be a reasonable bet on the future of EV batteries… but don’t put your money down if you’re not willing to wait a few years, and perhaps suffer through some delays and disappointment along the way. Science doesn’t often move in a straight line.
And what’s the other stock teased by Mizrahi? It’s also a solid state battery story, to a degree, though it’s pitched as an energy storage company…
Here are the clues:
“Without efficient energy storage, fossil fuels are needed for times when the sun doesn’t shine, or the wind doesn’t blow.
“But now … utilities are building wind and solar farms that, together with new battery storage solutions, are far more cost-effective than building new fossil fuel plants.
“Jigar Shah, the founder of the pioneering solar company SunEdison believes hundreds of billions of dollars’ worth of fossil-fueled power plants might soon be mothballed for good.
“That’s why a Forbes contributor calls energy storage ‘the most important technology in the world right now.'”
And then he gets a little bit specific about the company:
“Some companies have tried to store renewable energy in lithium-ion batteries … with very limited success.
“Simply put, solid-state batteries are expected to be the only viable choice.
“And Charles Mizrahi believes one company holds the key to unlocking this historic energy revolution.
“In fact, it’s the ONLY company to provide 1.2 BILLION people access to renewable energy stored in solid-state batteries.
“And it’s just getting started…
“Its storage solutions provide energy access to off-grid sites through a “mini grid” powered by wind and solar.
“Its parent company is one of the 500 largest companies in the world — run by a man who Barron’s calls a combination of U.S. investors Warren Buffett and Carl Icahn.
“Yet you almost certainly haven’t heard of the company.”
So… hoodat? Thinkolator sez this one is Blue Solutions, which was spun out as a publicly traded company to raise awareness and cash for its solid state battery development, but then was taken private again after the price failed to take off — Vincent Bolloré’s Bolloré Group (BOL in Paris, BOIVF OTC in the US) is again the full owner of Blue Solutions (and yes, Barron’s did call him a cross between Warren Buffett and Carl Icahn… though that was in 2016. Here’s the total return since then of Bolloré (in purple), Berkshire Hathaway (blue) and Icahn Enterprises (green), just FYI — they’ve all trailed the S&P 500, and Bolloré has been the worst of them:
Batteries and EVs are not Bolloré’s main business, but they do highlight that area as one of their three main focal points — their larger businesses are transportation/logistics (including oil logistics), and communications (mostly through large ownership stakes in Vivendi and Universal Music Group). Electricity storage and electrical systems make up about 2% of their revenue right now, and do not get much of the “investor relations” attention, though they are certainly part of the “future” story that Bolloré would like to build.
Bolloré Blue Solutions does have solid state batteries, though they’re not the rapid-charge batteries that we’d all like to see developed, and they are used in both buses and energy storage at the moment. They have made commercial progress, though, like many battery players, they seem to see their current technology as somewhat of a stopgap until they are able to commercialize much better designs over the next five or ten years.
And there are surely challenges, Paris suspended its use of Bolloré “Blue Buses” after a couple of them caught fire, so that indicates we’re not dealing with the pinnacle of solid state achievement, something in those lithium salt layers is still awfully flammable even if it’s not a liquid. Maybe they’ll be able to develop a high-volume solid state battery over the next few years that makes a meaningful difference either in energy storage or in transportation, and they are certainly further along than Quantumscape because they used a different solid state technology and commercialized it much earlier, but they have not yet found the holy grail in that business yet. The good news, I suppose, is that it is a massive and profitable company, thanks to their oil facilities and their global transportation logistics platforms, let alone their large stake in dominant media companies Vivendi and UMG, so they don’t have to make money from batteries for a long time… which means the downside risk at Bolloré is much, much less than the downside risk at Quantumscape.
It’s also very likely true that Bolloré shares are trading at a discount to the real value of the logistics and communications companies they own (they trade at only about 60% of book value), so that also provides some more confidence to investors considering the stock… though it’s only fair to mention that most of the big European conglomerates trade at pretty meaningful discounts to the “sum of the parts” value of their investments, most of the time.
So there you have it — not a new idea, this teaser started running a year ago, but it’s still being circulated heavily as Banyan Hill tries to figure out how to promote “emerging technology” ideas without tech growth cheerleader Paul Mampilly. We don’t know what Mizrahi thinks about these investments today, since they’re still careful to date the presentation “August 2021” as they sell these special reports, but we should probably be a little cautious — it wouldn’t be unheard of for a newsletter to keep pitching ideas in its ads even after the editor had sold those stocks (heck, they’re still using the name and image of Paul Mampilly to promote some of Paul’s many newsletters on their website, even though he has publicly broken with the publisher and started his own business, and those letters are going to disappear or be taken over by new pundits once Mampilly’s contract officially runs out, which presumably must be August 31 — the number one priority for any publisher remains selling, no surprise). Both of these investments arguably look better than they did a year ago, though that’s little consolation to investors who’ve been waiting for solid state batteries to finally take over the world — patience is hard, particularly when you’ve been promised a daydream.
That’s what I think, anyway, but I’ll remind you that it’s your money we’re dealing with — so what you think is what really matters. Ready to bet on 2025 or 2030 with Quantumscape? Or invest in a little battery company that’s hiding behind Vivendi and a big transportation and logistics company in Bolloré? Let us know with a comment below. Thanks for reading!
Disclosure: Of the companies mentioned above, I own shares of Warren Buffett’s Berkshire Hathaway, and, indirectly, of Universal Music Group through a Pershing Square investment (I mention that only because it’s the largest holding in the Pershing Square fund). I will not trade in any covered company for at least three days after publication, per Stock Gumshoe’s trading rules.
They may be referencing Ilika plc, which does business under the branding of Stereax.
The stock (otc: ILIKF) has hovered under $1 for some time now, which seems about right based on financials.
Ilika (IKA.L, ILIKF) has been teased by Matt McCall for years, with that teaser pitch later adopted by Luke Lango when he took over McCall’s newsletters. Interesting technology potential, also years away and much lower profilem — like Enovix (ENVX), to some degree, they’re talking about EVs but really focusing more on small batteries at the moment (as in “hearing aid” small for Ilika, last I checked, I think Enovix is looking more at cell phones). Ilika is hoping to get their batteries qualified by commercial buyers by the end of this year and begin selling next year — they still talk about their EV batteries, the Goliath business, being ready for “manufacturing readiness” at the end of 2023. If they ever scale up substantially it will take a lot of capital, ideally they’d partner with someone and just earn a royalty on their designs, but from what I can tell nobody has really fully “bit” at that idea just yet.
I think we first covered Ilika way back in January of 2019 for a McCall teaser — it was around 30 cents then, and really rallied with the hype cycle in late 2020 and 2021… now that has faded, it dipped down to 50 cents or so in the doldrums a month or two ago, and it’s still a little $100 million penny stock at this point. They just filed their annual report last week, worth a read.
I have just sold 11000 Ilika shares for a substantial loss. Don’t be hoodwinked by their reports. As Travis says the company operates at both ends of the battery sizes, but it is only their tiny cells for pace-makers and the like that seems to be close to being commercial. The Goliath batteries for cars are still on the drawing board. The original Goliath was a big loser, its is an appropriate name.
Hmmm, I bought and sold this a lot, so much I have no idea how much I’m up (not much only around 100 shares at a time). Now I’m in 450 shares at 23, guess I’m hold and pray. If you count my previous winnings, probably around $15 a share. (yes QS sorry forgot to add that). I’d like to add more at $10 but I feel this is enough for a risky stock. Happy Hunting!
AEVA is another forever battery with Luke Lango I believe
They are developing a LiDAR and are not involved in energy storage, as far as I know
ValerX is correct: AEVA is not a battery storage company.
yes it is
You guys are right, AEVA is LIDAR play, sorry
AEVA is a LiDAR company that is producing 4D imagery from my understanding. Luke Logan pitched AEVA as a potential LiDAR supplier candidate for an Apple vehicle.
I am now reading a book about the transference of energy and where we’re headed. One fact that I hadn’t known before is that the sun produces 10,000 times more energy per day than the earth currently uses. The future of harnessing and storing power is definitely a reality. So in the long run this looks interesting, this is why I am invested in Solar Window, a company with a bright future I think. Thank-you for this info Travis, great work!
It’s way more than 10,000. Did you know that 78.53 % of all statistics are wrong?
nice quote from Dilbert!
Correct… and a good portion of that solar energy is stored and available for re-use, aka, fossil fuels.
Solid state is one improvement, chemical flow storage is another and now gravity is finally being used. My prediction, long term, will be the development and use of an “organic” battery, much like we mammals. Capable of millions of cycles, very little heat generation and conformable into a million different configurations. Suppose the paint and roof of every home acted as a cathode / anode?
Then again, full disclosure, I do not believe that CO2 is a pollutant or dangerous, no more than water; both are vital to life and too much or too little can be a problem for planet earth. CO2 is needed for plants to survive and produce food and O2. Would it not be ironic if vegans become the largest advocates for more CO2 in the atmosphere? Mother Nature does have a sense of humor; just look at little toes!
It’s a shame so many share that belief since it came from the same lobbying group that spread the rumors, for decades, that tobacco is not addictive. Yes plants use CO2 and the oceans of the Earth can at times absorb CO2 but at other times they can belch it out. Facts though are and stay, they never come from alternatives. Tid bits of information that contradicts what your eyes and ears, should, have been telling you is happening these last few years I find most fascinating! Maybe consider possible outcomes. First maybe all the climate scientist’s are just greedy little bastards, they certainly don’t get very wealthy no matter how much cheaper solar or wind energy becomes compared to fossil fuels, that have never added up their true costs, but they are just wrong and of course greedy outcome cheaper renewables, cool, cleaner air for all to breathe, who could complain. Now consider if they are right, fact it’s getting warmer to dryer to wetter. Boy that last one is really hitting hard, how many died in Kentucky?, I don’t remember fatalities at Yellowstone but it’s going to take years to recover. To think one billion people this last spring endured 120+*, people that give thanks for shade, finally getting some relief as the monsoon’s arrived, alas over a thousand of them don’t ever have to worry about the heat! CO2 not a pollutant to you, in your mind anyway for all of the rest of life on this planet it will become quite deadly. That will come to you soon enough when you start to realize that many positive feedback loops have been triggered which is why it’s called “irreversible sudden onset climate change. Like the Earth has seen in its geologic past once CO2 goes past 400ppm things go from bad to much worse exponentially. Eventually even you will understand, just like chevrons scientists figured out back in the 1970’s burning fossil fuels will bring on global warming, and now puts more carbon in the atmosphere in one day as the Earth did in a very bad year!
Spoken like a true disciple of the ignorant, but entertaining nevertheless. There have been times when the Earth was hotter, colder and the same as it is now. The worst times were when it was colder, leading to widespread famine. Civilizations have been killed off, not by man-made carbon dioxide, but by nature itself. You cannot believe that last Ice Age was ended by human intervention, yet the temperatures have increased significantly. The Climate Alarmists are just WRONG, blaming everything on us. Sunspots, volcanoes and other natural phenomena have a MUCH larger effect on climate than humans, though I admit we do have some effect, as well. Trying to change everything overnight is a disastrous move. Let technology take care of it. Humanity has always adapted, now we have technology to help us. We’ll be fine. (Remember, the East Coast was supposed to be under water by 2017, according to your EcoGod, Al Gore, who has made many $millions by pushing his lies.
Solar Window is a scam…. Don’t get burned…..again….
It’s a long way from the chalk board to the lab, and a long way from the lab to the factory floor. If NDB can do it though, all other power sources will be obsolete. But I’ve seen many battery “revolutions” fail to make it out of the lab.
https://ndb.technology/
With the euro so much down against the usd.
Bolore has become a realy interesting investment option in my opinion.
Together with exor aker and gbl my position in european conglomerates.
Good to know Paul is starting his own business. Ian King is taking over his Profits Unlimited at Banyan Hill. Wait and see what he does with Amber and her dog.
I bought ilikf and it has only gone down 4x. And with the 50.00 fee to buy and sell it’s more of a loss to sell them. So I must keep it in my portfolio. But it’s a learning curve and a reminder to me never to buy these lousy penny stocks
Remember that you haven’t lost on a stock unless you sell it at a loss. Hopefully this one will still make you some money in the years to come
One might ad that the exact opposite of your statement is also true.
I have more faith in the Eveready Bunny!
Hmmm…going down 1x should mean the price has gone to 0 (zero). So down 4X means it’s at -3x what you bought it for? Hard to make sense of that.
There will not be a genuine solution for grid power storage until 1890s Lead-Acid batteries are included in the plans, I predict.
My reasoning is simple: Battery weight is only critical for vehicles. A grid power storage system can weigh millions of tons, because it never moves.
The substantial amounts of lead used in starter batteries for gasoline cars, are a toxics hazard. We cannot randomly discard them everywhere, so we must reuse these materials. Under EU environmental law, a complicating factor is that replacement technologies for lead batteries will be taxed to pay for lead reuse, unless the companies promoting new batteries devise solutions to the lead challenge.
Hi Travis, Do you know anything about ilika ? Another solid state battery maker, this time in the UK?
Hi Linda; see comments above from ‘turbolemon’ and Travis reply on this stock.
What about GWS (ESS. inc)
They have an iron salt water battery that is perfect for stationary storage . It is cheap and non toxic
Symbol for ESS Tech inc. is GWH. Company from Oregon, been around since 2011. Seem to have a pretty good story…
GWH is a very interesting start-up.
I like the fact that their story is so damn pragmatic and un-sexy.
Has anyone explored the announcement of a hydrogen battery being developed. Know there have been previous tries, but nothing significant has come out on the possibilities?
I have been looking at a company called Solid Power. It seems they are slightly ahead of others in the solid battery development. Anybody have other information?
I don’t know which design is likely to be more appealing to EV makers in the end, but from what I can tell they are on a similar timeline to Quantumscape — Solid Power (SLDP) says they plan to “formally enter the automotive qualification process” this year, which is roughly the same as the “Sample A” phase Quantumscape is planning to enter this year. Solid Power’s planned pathway has them reaching commercialization in 2025 with a silicon EV cell and 2026 or 2027 with lithium metal, according to their investor presentations.
I do like Solid Power’s focus on a solid electrolyte material, and their tentative plans to try to license that material and their technology to battery makers instead of having to build all their own battery plants — but most of these battery companies are not dummies, they’d all like to make deals like that if they can, though they clearly have to build their test lines and their prototypes and prove up their technology first.
What I like about Solid Power is that they have warrants available, so the money at risk is only abolur 10 cents on the dollar.
An investment in SLDP carries significant risk, but I believe they have a reasonable shot at having a marketable product within 5-8 years.
I have serious doubts that QS will ever accomplish that.
Energy Storage may be achieved by Elon Musk. I read that he already started a Utilities type business as a result of his company Tesla. If anyone is giving serious thought to energy storage, he is the main characted I would look up to and invest in. Go Tesla!
Yes, Tesla has a storage business, both residential and with some utility-scale work, and a solar panel business.
Yes Telsa has done some storage utility-scale work in South Australia with excellent results for their system.
Travis, sorry I am a bit late with my comments. I sure would like you to do research and write your findings on Nikola (NKLA). They are producing and selling EV trucks from their Ulm Germany plant.
Also, nearly finished with their new plant at Coolidge AZ, and will make EV pickup trucks using ROMEO batteries from Calif. In addition, making EV Semi-trucks using Hydrogen to charge batteries as best as I can understand. Only you and Thinkolator can produce a qualified article on such a possible great investment story.
Travis, how about an article on Nikola Company (NKLA). They are making EV trucks at their Ulm Germany factory. Also the nearly finished factory in Coolidge, AZ they will make pickup trucks using ROMEO batteries from Calif. In addition, making EV semi trucks that will use Hydrogen. They had a 2 billion dollar agreement with GM until some financial dirt was discovered.
Only you and the Thinkolator can handle this great story.
The minerals which are in the battery is where the profits will be. whether the battery is a success the ingredients are used. coys like SQM and in AUS PLS AKE are making huge profits now, not some years down the track
All very interesting…thanyou everyone.
Ev BATTERY investment to watch AVANTI BATTERY COMPANY. If anyone figures how to invest in it let us all know
Two recent articles on QuantumScape which is Charles Mizrahi’s stock
https://www.sangritoday.com/new-batteries-to-be-6-times-as-powerful-by-2025-ev-cars-will-run-1000-km-on-15-minutes-of-charge
https://asia.nikkei.com/Business/Technology/Honda-chases-next-big-thing-in-EVs-solid-state-batteries