The ad we’re looking at today is, of course, a pitch for solar power and for some specific solar technology companies… but we don’t get that info up front. If you look at the transcript of the pitch for Nick Hodge’s Early Advantage newsletter ($799/yr), they don’t “let the cat out of the bag” that it’s actually solar power they’re talking about until page 18. Out of 45 pages.
It’s true, I love you — why else would I sit through all this hyperbole? 45 pages doesn’t make Hodge the worst offender, to be sure, but that’s a lot of building scenarios and spinning tales.
So… shall we find out what these stocks are for you? He teases two, both of them quite small… and this time there’s no overlap with the “Endless Free Power” pitches from Dr. Kent Moors that are still flooding many of your inboxes and driving a lot of questions our way — Moors was pitching SUNE as his favorite and, secondarily, TSLA and WNDW… Hodge’s colleague Jeff Siegel did tout SolarWindow (WNDW) years ago, when it was still called New Energy Technologies, but it’s not in this current ad.
At least one of the stocks is a “rerun”, though — so there’s your hint from me.
Here’s how Hodge gets us interested, after we skip through the first dozen pages of “New Texas Oil” foofaraw:
“… 2016 is The Last Year This Tiny $1 Stock Trades UNDER $10….
“My point is, 2016 is the “tipping point” for the solar market’s energy dominance.
“And that’s exactly when this company’s new technologies will hit the market… dropping the price of solar by 75%.
“Sure, tons of new solar technologies are being mentioned in the news. But few are even close to ready for market. Most have not even left the prototype stage.
“That’s not the case at all with this company’s third-generation solar cell — which is not only ready for production…
“But has proven commercially viable in assembly line tests.”
Sounds impressive, right? Then he goes into the rational-sounding math behind his projections of massive gains:
“How much money are we talking about?
“In the United States alone, the market is $33 billion.
“So let’s be conservative and say this company’s solar technology captures just half of current U.S. sales…
“That’s nearly $16.5 billion in annual revenue.
“Twenty percent of that — this company’s share of royalties — is roughly $3 billion.
“Factoring in the average price-to-sales ratio for similar companies, the share price comes out to $67.
“That’s a 13,400% gain!”
That’s hooey. I’d use stronger language, but Stock Gumshoe is a family operation.
Why? Because this time he’s hinting at a company called Natcore (NXT.V in Canada, NTCXF on the OTCQB in the US)… which, sort of like SolarWindow, has been a solar technology/materials R&D company in search of a viable product for a long time. Nick Hodge also indicated that the stock was on the verge of popping from $1 to $21 back in 2012 when he hinted that this was the “non solar stock to save the solar industry.”
This company was teased by them in a slightly different way just last Fall, too. The company has been public, and tiny, for about 6-1/2 years, and right now it’s about at the lowest price it has traded at since the IPO — at least in US terms, which is what we should pay attention to since it’s not a Canadian business even though their primary listing is in Canada (the only reason for the Canadian listing is that they were too small to list on AMEX back in 2009, and they still are, though they upgraded their US listing to the OTCQB last year and are filing with the SEC… I haven’t seen a quarterly report yet in their US filings).
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Promotional chatter about them from Nick Hodge and from other newsletters and pundits and promoters has helped to bring price spikes in the past, particularly when the company has gotten the attention of national news outlets or been singled out by the government, and announcements about R&D accomplishments and possible commercialization have also had a positive impact on the price, but it has always come back down after the attention waned.
Will that happen again this time (either the spike, or the waning)? I have no idea, but I’d urge you to be skeptical about the timing of commercialization for their technology. I don’t know whether we should consider this a “when” or an “if” issue, since I’m certainly not an expert in materials science or in the solar cell or semiconductor industry, but even if you’re optimistic and consider their commercialization to be a “when” question, that date will almost certainly be long after this year. They’ve been saying “this year” or “next year” for a long, long time.
The technology the company was founded on was liquid phase deposition, which is a cheaper and safer way to create panels (instead of gas/vapor deposition), and the two solar cell improvements they’re currently trying to sell are an “absolute black” coating that cuts reflection and reduces costs, and a laser-etching back-contact HIT technology that can cut costs by skipping a manufacturing step or two and also improves efficiency.