What’s Moe Zulfiqar pitching as “The one tech stock to buy and never sell?” I’ve seen a couple versions of this teaser ad come rolling into Gumshoe HQ over the past week or so, and it’s time for a quick Thinkolator answer for you…
The ad is peddling subscriptions to America’s Redemption, one of the newsletters from Lombardi publishing (Zulfiqar is apparently editor of this letter, now, last time we looked at this, several years back, it was Mitchell Clark — and he was peddling investment “prophesies” from the Bible), and it’s one of those “ramp up” subscription deals — you pay $5 up front, and then if you don’t cancel they charge you another $92.50 for a six month membership, and if you still don’t cancel they start renewing you at $295/year.
So, assuming you don’t want to commit to all that in the service of learning about this “secret” tech stock, let’s get you some answers… then, if you feel like it, you can consider a subscription to America’s Redemption if you feel like it, with no pressure and in the full light of day. OK?
Here’s a taste of the ad, including pretty much all the clues we need:
“… owning stock in this company is like owning Apple stock back in 2004… before it surged from $2 a share to over $150 today. It has the potential to deliver me massive returns, just like it already has for other investors, for these four specific reasons:
“The company possesses several “must-have” technologies car makers need (related to driver-assist technologies) that could make fatal car accidents a thing of the past.
“Gross profits have jumped from $2.8 billion in 2015 to $5.8 billion in 2017.
“The company has $4 billion in cash and equivalents in the bank….
“The stock has more than DOUBLED in value every year for the last three years alone! If I had invested just $500 per month in this tech stock beginning in 2003, I’d be sitting on more than $1.5 million today—and it keeps going up!”
OK, so that “if I had invested $500 per month” is a new one — we usually see pitches about “if you had invested X years ago, you’d be rich as Y,” not “invest every month” teases. And I needn’t tell you that anyone can backtest and identify which companies would have been the best ones to hold for the past 15 years, of course — predicting the past is pretty easy, predicting the future is where it gets hard.
If you’re curious about the math, by the way, that’s a total investment of $90,000 over those 15 years to get to your $1.5 million.
How about the rest? Well, they said that this special report went out about a week ago, so it’s still quite current, and this is obviously a pretty big company — there are only about 50 tech stocks that have gross profit over $5 billion a year. Add in the cash balance and the fact that it has doubled a few times already, and you’re left with only one answer… this is, sez the Thinkolator, our old friend NVIDIA (NVDA).
And yes, I own shares of this one, too. It’s been the true darling of tech stocks over the past several years, and for much of that time it has been the single best performing stock in the S&P 500. So no, you don’t need a newsletter to tell you about this ‘secret’ stock, it’s probably one of the most widely covered stocks outside of the FANG names… though you might need a strong stomach, or some convincing from your friendly neighborhood newsletter writer, to buy shares at current prices.
I added (very) slightly to my NVDA holdings recently, at prices near $225, but it’s a hard valuation at which to commit much capital (my cost basis is about $125, which makes it emotionally easier to ride the ups and downs)… particularly when we’re about a week away from NVDA’s next quarterly earnings release. Shares have bounced around quite a bit this year after a huge multi-year run, so you needn’t decide today — take your time, research, figure out if it’s a good risk/reward balance for you, personally… the stock has bounced up and down between $200-250 so far this year
But man, it is quite a company. NVIDIA has p