Canadian Oil — Hsu’s “Big Surge”?

By Travis Johnson, Stock Gumshoe, August 8, 2008

This is a little weekend refresher, for folks who might have missed the writeup the first time around. Robert Hsu has been touting a Canadian oil sands stock that is a play on China, since China is interested in buying their product or partnering with them.

And the company is a better buy now than a few weeks ago, since the fall in oil has brought a bargain buying opportunity … here’s what Hsu says in this latest email campaign, an ad I received yesterday, about the “urgency” of buying now, with oil dipping:

“Hold on to your hat because oil’s headed back up, and our Canadian tar-sand stock is first in line to profit. This stock shot up 70% in the last few weeks, but now it has pulled back as crude oil prices ease. This gives you a rare second chance to get in on this summer’s most surprising double.

“Don’t Wait For Oil’s Next Big Surge!

“I told my Asia Edge subscribers they’d kick themselves if they didn’t get into this Canadian tar-sands stock at $57. It’s now at $73 and we’re refueling for the next leg up to $150.”

He also sent out his ads touting this when the stock was at about $100 near the end of June, so it’s down about 25% from those levels (it’s at $75 today).

Still the same stock, though, and if you believe in the long term case for oil there’s still some value in their holdings — whether or not it’s worth the current price is up to you to decide, of course. And don’t ask me if oil is going to $140 or $100 next, I have no idea … though I tend to think it will be “expensive” for many years to come.

The shares are down markedly with oil falling, and trade at a current PE of about 14 and a forward PE of 8. I don’t know what oil price assumptions they make in estimating profits for these folks, but most analysts seem still to not model future oil prices much above $100 for their estimates, to be conservative, so there may be some potential there. The forward valuation is pretty similar to other large oil companies, and the dividend a bit smaller.

In case you didn’t remember the name of the stock, it’s Canadian Natural Resources (CNQ), and the full writeup is still available here from about six weeks ago.

Enjoy your weekend … and happy investing!


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