by Travis Johnson, Stock Gumshoe | July 28, 2008 5:40 am
Apologies for folks who are seeing this comment a second time, but the site had severe server problems yesterday and was down for much of the day — so I’m republishing it to make sure that you have a chance to read this note if you want to.
This is not going to be a fully fleshed out writeup, but I thought I’d take a moment on a lovely Sunday morning to share with you an ad that is being fairly aggressively distributed and that promises outsize returns early this week, based on an upcoming earnings announcement that is expected to offer the proverbial “blowout.”
The ad is from Robert Hsu[1] and his Asia[2] Edge service, and this is the promise:
“Is the Commodities Boom Over? Where to Profit Now…
“Buy before Monday For an almost-instant 15% gain!”
Hsu says that this fertilizer[3] company will release earnings on Monday — tomorrow — and that you the earnings should be a spectacular blowout of expectations, and you’ll get a 15% pop in your shares.
The company, as you might have guessed, is Mosaic (MOS)[4]. To be fair to Mr. Hsu, this is one of the top two or three performing stocks that I’ve ever written about in this space, he has given his subscribers a great return — as well as anyone who bought the stock after seeing him tease it (and your friendly neighborhood Gumshoe write about it) over a year ago.
Does that mean they’re really going to post outsize earnings? I have no idea. Potash Corp, the closest comparison company, did release an upside earnings surprise last week, and the stock did go up — but do keep in mind that the expectations for these stocks are extraordinarily high, fertilizer remains many peoples’ favorite investment thesis, and everyone seems to believe that these stocks can do nothing but go up. I can’t prick that bubble, I just want to caution that even if he’s right, and even if Mosaic does extraordinarily well, it already got a boost from Potash Corp’s earnings release and it will have to be a really nice surprise — and an accomodating market environment that day — to see a big instant move in the stock price. This is, after all, a $50 billion company, a 15% move in a day is possible and has happened, but it takes some doing.
Great company, of course — just don’t know if they’ll go up 15% after the earnings come out. The earnings release will be after the market close on Monday, so it wouldn’t be surprising if there are some swings during the day if people hear rumors or have “feelings” about the earnings one way or thw other.
Mark Skousen[5] is promising an earnings upside surprise on Tuesday, to go along with Hsu’s Monday promise here — I’ll see if I can get to that before the end of the day for you.
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Hsu still seems bullish on ag commodity related stocks. However he did advise his subscribers to sell Mechtel, (Luckily, just before Pooty-Poots comments sent the stock tumbling), Cleveland Cliffs and Peabody. Hsu is a momo kinda guy, but if you think the commodity mkt is just pulling back and not a deflating buble it might a buying op.
New to this site and perhaps I’ve missed some commentary about the “Shadow Stock Trader” solicitation. Is someone willing to enlighten me? As an Oxford member it seems like they are more interested in selling subscriptions to the latest investment secrets/strategies of a particular guru.
New to this site as well and lovin’ it! Eric, I was an Oxford member for a year and every month I received umpteen mailings from them to sign up for whatever newsletter or to become a premier member or inner cirlce member. There was very little good info in anything that they sent me. I stick with Michael Lombardi and his crew. Only their daily newsletter, mind you.
Gumshoe, that’s for all your hard work. I think I’m gonna be an irregular…
Agree Gumshoe this is a brilliant website and I will be donating shortly.
Thanks
I think you’ll find the term, “shadow stocks” refers to ETF’s as they, “shadow the index”. Do a google search on they term and a couple liks pop up with that explanation.
typoes above: CORRECTIONS: I think you’ll find the term, “shadow stocks”, refers to ETFs, as they “shadow the index”. Do a google search on the term and a couple links pop up with that explanation.
IPI – 2 out of 5 positive. Ugly chart here:
http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/SC.pnf?c=ipi,P
Some support at the spread double bottom break at $47, then, if it can not hold, the May lows. Supply is in control.
FYI all…there is still time to get on this if you are just reading it today (Monday). Mosaic is scheduled to release its earnings report after the market close. They will then have a presentation to investors on Tuesday at 11:00 am (ET). I’ve been a holder of this company for some time and am hoping for more good news. Thanks for a great site Gumshoe.
http://www.examiner.com/p-193770~Mosaic_Announces_Fourth_Quarter_and_Fiscal_Year_2008_Earnings_Release_and_Conference_Call.html
Gumshoe
There are two stocks reporting today,,,,MOS and CF.
I suspect that CF is the stock that HSU is referring to,,,,,,,,,
Anyone know for sure?
Advantedge
Definitely MOS for Hsu
mos delivered on their earnings…Hsu’s delivery is delayed at best…it got some action today and is up 8% since the announcement.