“Silent Epidemic Ravages Boomers!”

What's the $7 HCV Testing Stock Being teased by Ernie Tremblay's Biotech Insider Alert?

Golly, most people who might subscribe to investment newsletters are baby boomers.

And most of that generation is just a few years past their midlife crisis… so you can be pretty sure that a “silent epidemic” will get them to read your ad, yes?

Apparently so, if the questions rolling in to Gumshoe HQ over the last day or two are any indication — Ernie Tremblay’s ad about this “silent epidemic” (and how you can get rich from it) has hit both the greed and fear receptors pretty hard.

ijectionThe pitch, of course, is really about making money by subscribing to Tremblay’s Biotech Insider Alert over at Money Map Press ($1,875 after your “instant rebate” — more on that in a moment), and the carrot to get you to sign up right away is that there’s a “tiny $7 company” responding to the crisis, with a stock, naturally, that he thinks will be shooting higher any moment now.

Several of you have already figured this one out, and there’s been a bit of chatter about it on some of Dr. KSS’s biotech discussion threads, but I thought I’d check the clues for you and run through it to confirm what the stock is for all of you who have questions and aren’t members of the Irregulars or participants in those chats. Here’s how Tremblay gets us excited:

“CDC Issues Nationwide Warning:

“Silent Epidemic Ravages Boomers — Kills Every 58 Seconds!

“A tiny $7 company is responding to the crisis, providing a patented, mass-market breakthrough that could save you — and 75 million Americans — from a grisly, premature death.”

Subtle, right? It gets better…

“At this moment, a silent epidemic is sweeping the globe, and has made its way to the United States.

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“It’s not HIV…

“And it’s not Ebola.

“According to the Center for Disease Control (CDC), it’s over 6,500 times more prevalent than Ebola… and 1,000 times more deadly.”

And while most teaser ads from newsletters are satisfied with filling your eyes up with images of piles of gold and yachts and Maseratis, sparking that greed impulse as we look for the next blowout momentum stock that will correct all of our past financial mistakes, this one lays it on heavy with the fear, too …

“The scary thing is, you could already be infected with this virus and not know it.

“In most cases, the virus slipped in years ago, and has quietly been ravaging your body, completely unnoticed.

“Now, some signs may have appeared in the beginning.

“You might have felt a bit sluggish.

“You felt a bit fatigued.

“Maybe you had some trouble sleeping through the night.

“And you might have experienced some joint pain and stiffness in your knees or fingers.

“Problem is, by the time the real warning signs appear, it may be too late.”

Seriously? Is there a baby boomer alive who hasn’t felt a bit sluggish, had trouble sleeping, had some joint pain? Now we’re going to freak out a few million people and make them think they have Hepatitis C because they’re not 25 anymore?

Yes, that’s what this is all about — the Hepatitis C Virus, often abbreviated as HCV. I won’t go through the details of how it works, or what it is — you’ve almost certainly read some about it, and you can go through Tremblay’s ad here if you’re curious. Or visit the CDC’s web page on Hep C for patients — and yes, to be fair, baby boomers are more likely to have HCV (and many of them don’t know it) than are younger or older people, probably at least partly because of the environment in which they grew up (pre-blood screening, IV drug use and shared needles for some, etc.), and yes, the CDC does have a press campaign urging boomers to get tested. And you can have it without knowing it, and the CDC really does want all boomers (and other at-risk groups) to get tested whether or not they have any symptoms. Mostly, I expect, because testing them now can actually do some good, since dramatically better treatments/cures have been released over the past year or so than were available previously.

Tremblay does offer a backhand compliment for the drugs that are curing HCV — implying that investing in Gilead (GILD) and/or AbbVie (ABBV) is still a good idea as they are leading the charge with their incredibly effective cure(s) for Hepatitis C, but he says that the company selling the test for HCV is the one that you should really be looking at. (Though he doesn’t name those two stocks either, so whether he prefers one or the other I don’t know.)

Here’s more from the ad:

“Now that there’s a cure, people can get treatment and return to robust health.

“Simple solution. But remember:

“Most people don’t know they have the virus.

“That’s right. Of the 200 million people infected with HCV worldwide, roughly 150 million of them DO NOT KNOW they have the virus….

“Consequently, the Center for Disease Control (CDC), has launched an UNPRECEDENTED emergency response campaign to put an end to HCV.

“The first essential step?

“A massive U.S. Government initiative to get people at risk TESTED for HCV…

“That includes every single one of America’s 75 million Boomers…

“And herein lies a once-in-a-generation opportunity…

“You see, a tiny $7 company based in Bethlehem, Pennsylvania has developed the first FDA-approved quick test for HCV.

“The test is fast, easy, and nearly 100% accurate. And it only takes 20 minutes to get results!

“At $95, the test is also affordable.

“And for people at risk – like the 75 million Boomers – the U.S. Government has ordered insurance companies to pay for the test.”

So… who’s the company that’s going to rake in gobs of cash because they’re the first ones with a quick test for HCV? A few more clues:

“Although they are tiny, this company has an elite management team with combined medical industry experience of more than 235 years at places like Johnson & Johnson, Abbott Labs, Bristol Meyers, and Pfizer….

“The company’s CEO… serves on the U.S. Presidential Advisory Committee on HIV/AIDS….

“… they’ve developed a close relationship with the FDA….

“FDA Commissioner Dr. Margaret Hamburg – along with U.S. Congressman Charles Dent – traveled to the company’s headquarters to tour their facilities.”

And we’re told that, so far, this company’s test sales are “a mere $7.3 million” — but Tremblay thinks that will change quickly with this new testing promotion campaign from the CDC as they urge all boomers to get tested.

And, of course, since Tremblay’s publisher is such a good chap, he’s going to offer a $125 voucher so you can pay for your $95 test AND a $30 copay for your doctor’s visit.

Does that voucher ring a bell from earlier? Yep, it so happens that this $125 voucher takes the form of a $125 discount on their $2,000 newsletter price, bringing it down to $1,875… but hey, everyone’s gotta make a living, right?

There’s more reason for optimism, too, because apparently this company has a joint venture deal with one of the HCV cure sellers:

“In an extraordinary move, the drug company that manufactures the curative medicine – a $90 billion mammoth – has formed a joint venture with the tiny $7 test manufacturer.

“As a show of good faith, the drug manufacturer agreed to pay the tiny test producer up to $350 million just for the right to promote the HCV tests.

“Because most people have no clue about their risk for HCV, the test manufacturer has a mere $7.3 million in annual test sales.

“The $350 million they could receive from the drug maker represents a 4,700% sales surge.”

And that, of course, starts to get those dreams of wealth floating in our brains. He gets quite specific, too, with numbers that sound just so darn reasonable that we can’t help but get rich (right?):

“Let’s do the math… and to make this as conservative as possible, let’s only use U.S. sales based on 10% of Boomers getting tested.

“Based on projected U.S. sales of $1 billion, and an industry average price-to-sales ratio of 10.3, we’re looking at a one-year target price – before any splits – of $183 a share.

“Considering you can own the stock today for $7, that’s an astronomical 26-fold jump.”

So who is it? Yes, as others have noted this is OraSure Technologies (OSUR), a little $300 million diagnostics and testing company — in addition to their HCV rapid test they have similar tests for influenza variations, HIV, testing kits for drug screening, those little devices you can use to freeze off warts, and a few other relatively minor products. And they were occasionally mentioned last year for the possibility that they might develop Ebola tests, though that’s less of a “real” story (no mention of Ebola on their website), their real business is in HIV testing and drug testing and, now, in HCV testing.

And since he was kind enough to tell us that the “curative medicine” maker is a $90 billion behemoth, we can confirm that, yes, it’s AbbVie that OraSure has a deal with — that’s roughly ABBV’s market cap (Gilead is almost twice that size).

Will OSUR take off? I have no idea. With this much marketing from Ernie Tremblay’s publisher, and a fairly easy-to-solve teaser puzzle, it’s likely to be jumpy for as long as they’re promoting it heavily — but when it comes to real life, I would assume that adoption of this new testing regimen will be dramatically slower than that “conservative” $7 to $183 projection that gets everybody drooling would indicate.

The company has had some success with the HCV rapid test, which they call OraQuick HCV, they reported sequential growth from the fourth quarter to the first quarter of something like 25% in sales for that product, so that’s positive, and they are talking it up as one of their major growth potential products — but they’re not suggesting that they’re going to go from $100 million in annual revenue to $1 billion on the strength of that test, at least not in the foreseeable future. —
Analysts aren’t suggesting that, either, they’ve got OSUR lined up for roughly 10% earnings growth per year over the next couple years. You can get a pretty good sense for where the company thinks they are, and what their expectations are, by reviewing their last conference call transcript from last week, when their first quarter report disappointed analysts and drove the stock down by 20% or so.

And that’s about all I can tell you on this one — just wanted to get it out there as a “bonus” teaser solution since I know so many folks were asking about it. What’s the current testing regiment for HCV? Is there a problem with it? I don’t really know, but this one is apparently the fastest one, with at least some kind of results available in 20 minutes from a fingerstick in the doctor’s office (it’s not a home saliva test like some of their other products, so you can’t do it yourself — has to be at a doctor’s office or clinic or pharmacy or something).

Whether that’s better or worse than the traditional blood tests that might be used for screening otherwise, I have no idea — nor do I know if the cost is competitive or the results more or less reliable or valuable. It’s not clear to me that there’s any speed urgency in HCV testing, since we’re talking about the folks who don’t even have symptoms, but certainly I can see how accuracy and cost and convenience would matter… and there will be, if the CDC is successful, probably lots more people getting tested — though that’s been a gradual rampup already as effective cures have gotten into the rotation, it’s not as though a switch will be flipped and suddenly 75 million baby boomers will be tested next week, and I have no idea whether this particular test will necessarily be used over other tests.

All I really know is that this is the stock being teased by Tremblay, investors were a bit disappointed with their last quarter (and analysts brought down their earnings forecast for 2016 from 13 cents to 11 cents per share, so it’s trading at about 50X 2016 earnings), and you can go forth and do with that info what you like. Feel free to chime in with a comment below if you’ve got an opinion on OraSure or their prospects.


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Ghebrel
Guest
Ghebrel

Thank you very much Travis. My curiosity and othets is rested in peace now.

MaryS
Guest

I totally agree I was curious

Thnks for a great report

Mary

Linh
Guest
Linh

OSUR’s OraQuick Hepatis C rapid test is the first (not sure if the only?) FDA approved HCV rapidtest. http://www.fda.gov/NewsEvents/Newsroom/PressAnnouncements/ucm217318.htm It is mentioned by name (in reference section) in the CDC 2014-2016 Updated Action Plan for Viral Hepatitis. A CDC publication in 2013 specifically mentioned OraQuick HCV rapid test as the FDA approved HepC quick test. http://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/preview/mmwrhtml/mm6218a5.htm May 19,2015 is National Hepatitis Testing Day. This is the 4th year of CDC’s Hepatitis Awareness Month. Review of OSUR stock price after each May in last 3 years, shows a spike in stock price 30-50 percents within a few months after the May… Read more »

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bill897
Member
👍22
bill897

I went with a chiropractor who beat cocaine, her great achievement. I didn’t know she had Hepatitis B. I happened to have taken a Hepatitis Vaccine a couple years prior. I go to give free blood to the Red Cross thinking I’m doing the right thing. And they tell me I have Hepatitis B in my bloodstream. God, talking about being scared! I immediately went to the doctor and he told me “It’s dead in your bloodstream. It didn’t affect your liver which is the largest organ in your body.” I was relieved. I wondered why this doctor was checking… Read more »

bill897
Member
👍22
bill897

I wrote a letter to OSUR TECH and the CDC to attack this world pandemic, Hepatitis, to give every American a Hepatitis Vaccine to wipe this disease like polio. OSUR TECH would do the screenings at the airports and other points of entry into the USA, so that other people from other countries don’t expose Americans to this disease. We need to wipe this out worldwide.

bill897
Member
👍22
bill897

Can Hepatitis by wiped out, all over the world, just like the Salk Polio Vaccine? Shouldn’t the CDC set up a Testing Shield at all Points of Entry into the United States to protect Americans from being exposed to HIV, HVC, HVB and other Pandemics or do we let everyone in and if 500 die, then the CDC does something? My prognosis is that OSUR could run all these testing centers at all the point of entry in the United States to protect us all! Kimosabey, would that be doable? We should write the CDC and OSUR and get this… Read more »

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Gary R
Guest
Gary R

Thanks for the quick analyses. I got my first tease today. I’m glad you had this so quickly. I did a Google search and came up with The Abbott RealTime HCV Genotype II test is manufactured by Abbott Molecular Inc., in Des Plaines, Ill. But their test that was approved in 2013 is not for screening, but for further testing of confirmed carriers. I couldn’t find OTC or pink sheets on it.

Dave
Guest
Dave

Travis, your cool-headed assessment has allowed me to relax and breathe normally again after getting all hyperventilated by the teaser. It’s going on a watch list, but I always lean toward IBB rather than toward risking cash on individual biotech stocks. Making big money in any specific one of them is about as likely as getting hit by a falling airplane part.

Dave #2
Guest
Dave #2

Thanks Travis, also from another Dave. It was definitely a shameless teaser. Of course I should have known better with something coming out of moneymap. Like Kieth’s high velocity profits, which are anything but. He finally hit one one… although give another day or 2 and I’ll bet that will change too.

Ronald E. Baker
Guest
Ronald E. Baker

I used to sell HIV tests and it’s a tough market! Blood tests in the Dr. office with 20 minute answers is very interesting; yet that market is also slow to grow. Since symptoms of HCV are seldom apparent until it is nearly too late to save the patient, it is not going to get a big push (unless something bigger from government/public health forces gets into play.) Maybe ABBVie sponsorship can do the trick; not a bad partner to have. The key is: will the USFDA help ABBVie to promote this particular test above any alternatives. Some kind of… Read more »

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baygreen
Member
👍30

Travis as always the cream rises to the top! You and your Team are always on top #1!

alanh
Member
👍4086

Ive found a free test for the symptoms of feeling a bit sluggish, a bit fatigued, some trouble sleeping through the night, joint pain and stiffness in your knees or fingers.
Simply count the candles on your birthday cake.

jking1939
Member
👍1266
jking1939

Benny –

Can I use this? I’m sending a newsletter for a reunion of 1950 to 1959 high school grads. This is really great!

jk

omcdac1
Member
👍468
omcdac1

🙂

Robert D
Guest
Robert D

So much hype , HVC will show up as a high liver enzyme on your yearly blood test if you have a yearly exam once it gets going good … A very simple solution if your worried about your liver and HVC, stop drinking alcohol , kinda like pouring gas on a fire ….. There are 3 main groups of at risk people , Gay males , Iv drug users and anyone who had a blood transfusion prior to 1990… The reason the drug co are so excited is most of the at risk groups are will be on Govt… Read more »

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Gui_
Member
👍778
Gui_

Unbelievable, these are the types of comments advocacy groups have been struggling against for the 5 years I’ve been involved in removing the stigma of telling friends and family one has this hideous disease. This is precisely the attitude that prevents so many from getting tested until it’s too late and then, by the way, driving up prices.
Here I thought this was an enlightened forum and that troglodytes were a dying species… I guess not.
It breaks my heart as well as makes me angry to hear such ignorance afforded a forum.

Rayford
Guest
Rayford

Thanks for a concise – to the point report. Im tired of listening to long winded sales pitches how to make money that lead to a need to first invest in someones newsletter.

Alberto B
Guest

Thank you for a job well done! It seemed compelling to jump in.
I am a baby boomer as well, from those who are already retired and I have come across the “piggyback to the Canadian S.S.” and was I wondering “it’s that for real!”
I certainly could add it to my retirement if it’s as easy as they put it, I would appreciate any comments,

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Rick Henley
Guest
Rick Henley

Thanks Travis!
That was my first inquiry since becoming an “Irregular” last month. Thanks for your report.

gard
Guest

Travis, when one thinks about how much Dr KSS and Doc Gumshoe and other biotech writers write, you can bet you are concise. Thanks again Alan

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caseyj
Member
👍10

Yesterday I got Kent Moors’ sales pitch for this $7 stock. Did some Internet research and came up with OSUR because they have a $95 kit and the stock price was recently at $7. I BOT at $5-something and made a nice little profit in one day (or, I would if I sold it) and now it’s hovering around $6. Will keep it at least till after Dec 19, which is supposed to be a big HCV campaign. BTW, a few weeks ago my doctor wanted me tested, said all boomers are getting tested since there’s now a cure. My… Read more »

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caseyj
Member
👍10

Whoops, I meant the HCV campaign is on MAY 19 (not Dec 19). That’s in a few days.

Dr H
Guest
Dr H

Actually 95% is not bad at all. That’s why we follow up any +HCV test with a 2nd test to measure the amount of Hep C virus in your body to determine if the viral load (or amt of viral products) is high enough to warrant treatment. As long as the amount of virus is small ( your liver tests will be normal) usually you will be followed without having to go through a expensive and fatiguing treatment protocol. Hope this helps.
Dr H

TimothyJ999
Guest
TimothyJ999

“Accurate” in the context of a screening test is a loaded word. Most screening tests are set up to be very sensitive (to ensure catching all cases, even if it’s at the cost of some false positives), because a positive can then be followed up by a more sensitive (and expensive) test to rule out any false positives. That’s the nature of lab tests–they can either be very sensitive, or very specific, but not both: as you raise sensitivity you decrease specificity and vice versa. What you DON’T want for a mass screening test is high specificity and low sensitivity,… Read more »

denningsnorcal
Member
👍5

Hello all. I’ve been impressed by what I’ve read on this site so I decided to sign up for a full year subscription. This is my 1st post. I also received the teaser e-mail yesterday as I subscribe to the Private Briefing research service directed by William Patalon III from Money Morning. I really like the Private Briefing service as I find the information and especially the research very detailed, and the cost was reasonable at $99/yr. A lot of the stuff I see hawked by the rest of their investment gurus though is B.S. After viewing the painfully long… Read more »

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modernrock
Irregular
👍236

exit out of the video and you will be given a choice for the script that you can read.

Ken
Guest
Ken

I figured that out on my own, but I am glad someone actually said it. Real time-saver.

FRANKLIN
Guest

WOW TRAVIS, WHAT A JOB YOU DO TO HELP US. THANKS I WILL JOIN YOUR PREMIUM MEMBERSHIP TODAY.

tom pontbriand
Guest
tom pontbriand

I hoped not to hear “advocacy” or “stigma” on this forum. At least there was no mention of “systemic” or “at the end of the day”. I do wonder, however, who’s ox is being gored?

Rusty Brown in Canada
Guest
Rusty Brown in Canada

You have to laugh at the hype: “…more prevalent than Ebola… and 1,000 times more deadly.”
If Ebola kills ½ of the people it infects, how can anything be 1,000 times more deadly?

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Gui_
Member
👍778
Gui_

Jolly entertaining, what?

caseyj
Member
👍10

I was wondering the same thing. If Ebola has a 50% fatality rate (I thought it was closer to 90%) then 1,000 times that rate would kill you 500 times.

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sooku
Member
👍62

I think he means it kills you 1,000 times faster 🙂

Victor LaCerva
Guest

good info as I have come to expect from gumshoe. thank you.
This is the quick test I’m keeping my eyes on…whoever snaps this technology up will indeed be poised for rapid money making while helping save lives at the same time…inspiring!
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jack_Andraka

Patricia Vasquez
Guest

Hi; I had found the answer. Thanks for verifying it. Not quite as deadly as he left on. Huh? Anything for a come-on.

John Broughton
Guest
John Broughton

A home test kit is available from Walgreen’s for $49.99. Why pay $95 at a doctor’s office for a similar test?
http://www.walgreens.com/store/c/home-access-hepatitis-c-check/ID=prod1842780-product

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modernrock
Irregular
👍236

because insurance will cover it?

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gail
Guest
gail

No comparison. The Walgreen’s test must be mailed in a prepaid envelope and you call in 10 days for the result. Orasure’s result occurs immediately

modernrock
Irregular
👍236

Make sure you peeps check out the “discussion” tab above when a new tease comes out. Often times we figure it out very early. OSUR was 5.25 or under for about an hour after the post and only closed at 5.50 before the gap and run to 6.40. Most likely has similar action both Monday and Tuesday and the four day pattern finishes. Here was the original thread on discussions board.
http://www.stockgumshoe.com/2015/05/microblog-moneymap-press-new-promo-cdc-targets-silent-killer-nationwide-alert/

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modernrock
Irregular
👍236

and 7.50’s today……just a 50% move, amazing

ELISSA JUNG
Guest
ELISSA JUNG

AN OTHER “SKY IS FALLING”! SCARE’EM AND THEY’LL BUY IT. DID YOU KNOW THE AIR WE BREATH IS CONTAMINATED? I HAVE FOUND A TINY CO. THAT HAS THE CURE. IT IS A DOUBLE PLUG YOU PUT UP YOUR NOSE. IT IS ON A FAST TRACK FOR APPROVAL. FOR THE SMALL SUM OF $ 5,000 I WILL SHARE THE NAME. THERE ARE ONLY TWO SIDE EFFECTS. YOU LOOSE $ 5,000 AND YOU DIE. AM I JADED OR WHAT?

David Denning
Guest
David Denning