Louis Navellier’s “Glitch”

By Travis Johnson, Stock Gumshoe, September 4, 2008

Just a quick note for those of you who might be getting inundated with Louis Navellier’s latest email barrage — this time, he’s telling us that we have just a few more hours to take advantage of the special sale he’s offering on Blue Chip Growth, one of his newsletters.

What’s the special hook? Apparently there was a special mailing that went out to alert folks to this sale, but due to a “glitch” with his IT folks over the Labor Day holiday Louis is afraid some of his readers didn’t get it.

The cynics among us will quickly guess what the glitch was: Not enough people signed up for the newsletter, a horrible glitch indeed. Secondarily, the terrible glitch was that people were on vacation, so they didn’t read their email from him. Awful.

I can verify that the same glitch has impacted StockGumshoe.com … so if you want to sign up for the free email subscription, or just register for the site and share your delightful comments, I’ll let you do so at the special, low low price of free free free until midnight tonight!

OK, so you can sign up tomorrow, too. Or the next day, if you want. Heck, wait until next week if you prefer. Or don’t register at all, and just come wandering back to read when you feel like it.

By the way, I looked back through my email archives: Louis (among others) has tried this exact same fishing strategy several times before, I just finished re-reading virtually identical emails from both President’s Day and the Fourth of July … so if he’s got a technical glitch and has bought the only servers that take vacations, well, I really do feel sorry for the guy. But doubt creeps in.

Hope you’re all doing well, and that the switchover to my new Daily Update email system has not caused you to become overwhelmed with Gumshoe goodness while the kinks are worked out (or worse, cut off — the horror!). Seems to all be working now, so hopefully you’ll all be successfully getting your emails once a day from now on, each one bursting at the seams with wit, wisdom, and investment ideas.


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Tony Powers
Tony Powers
September 5, 2008 8:13 pm

RE: Navellier and Quantum Growth newsletter
Navellier recommended Solarfun Power to double quickly, based on the quarterly sales results to be issued the next day. I bought a lot at 19, the announced sales results were much better than anticipated. However, over the next few days the stock dropped steadily. I exited at about 14. Quantum Growth came out but omitted mention of Solarfun Power. It was later added to the buy list, with a stop loss of 7. No subsequent mention of the fast double.

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WaveRider
WaveRider
September 6, 2008 10:15 pm

Hello Gumshoe followers
I am still learning how it all works but here’s my thoughts so far –
Gumshoe, Farley5 & Ladywithaportfolio please feel free to re-educate me here:
The spruikers merely give you the name of a company you hadn’t heard of, or thought to look for, either to boost the price on shares they already bought, with a view to selling, or because there may actually be something coming out of left field that will boost the price for everyone.
You could find it yourself, if you had the time they do, and knew where to look.

Gumshoe’s list of their previous choices give a good database for companies to type into your own search details.
Having found a company I would deal in Options,the Call gets you the profit and the Put guarantees the limit of your Loss (or vice versa in the current Bear market)- unlike a Stop where it seems the Markets can open lower after the weekend, below your Stop & incurring a bigger loss than was allowed for.
Maybe more labour intensive than Buy & Hold, but bigger profits and defined losses if it turns to custard.
The next thing is to sign up for the Elliott Wave stuff (on the right here) – Learn about Wave counts & Fibonacci Retracements – that will tell you straight off whether you are buying into a Top with subsequent fall,(and how far it may go), or not.
Get Bollinger Bands, RSI, MACD & Stochastics and the Williams% thing – Buy or Sell when they are all at one extreme or the other, after counting the Waves to see if the next move is up or down in the direction you want to go.

Use Gumshoes old records to see the stocks that were once considered great – see how they are doing now – as above – if the price is right go for it again.

Looking at Solarfun & GTE they both appeared to be entering the last phase of 5-waves up at the time Mr Navellier was spruiking them, which means they were due for a fall of 3 steps down –
GTE ($4.45) is still completing theirs – I think they are either part way thru Wave 2 retracement (up > $5.00)
Confirmation please,Farley5 ??
before the start of the 3rd wave down, or already into the 3rd wave down (> $2.50) – I’m only using the MSN.Money website here – not too much detail.
Solarfun is a bit more confused in the wave count but I think you may be able to pick it up for under $10, or even $8 pretty soon, maybe less – if it gets back to $25 would be a nice earner – Green is in, Coal is bad, cars are worse and there will be no jobs in Industry, Finance or Building.
The Bear Market
America’s troubles in the Housing & Finance markets will be the lead to explain the overall crash of all markets/shares (Expected by Elliott Wave) – so I wouldn’t start to Buy & Hold until the DJIA has hit 5500 (or even 4500) & climbed back – because all shares will lose a % of their current price regardless.
Pick a share, any share & buy a Put !!
Investor confidence is getting rattled, and as the only way to realise your existing paper profit or reduce your loss, is to sell, then as more & more decide to sell up & wait it out, the prices will go through the floor across all sectors.
No doubt there will be mini rallies, (in a Bear Market these will be 3 waves up (Up>Down>Up) instead of 5 like a Bull Market)and these may go for weeks (or maybe months – I haven’t been able to work out the timeframes yet) but the overall trend is down, down, down.
Look at a 30 year chart for the DJIA index :
From say 1900 to July 82 it got to 815
From July 82 – July 87 = 2668 (+ 1853) 5yrs
From July 87 – July 96 = 5506 (+ 2838) 9yrs
From July 96 – July 06 = 11330 (+ 5824) 10yrs
From July 06 – July 07 = 14017 (+ 2687 In 1 Year!)
The Market likes order – go too high too fast during the day and guaranteed its back to where it started from in a day or 2 – so in terms of DJIA’s life so far, the July 07 Top needs to go back at least to July 87 for a more ordered rise back up.
Balance at July 08 – 11134 – so July 06 is taken care of, no doubt there will be stops & recoveries like at 9500/10000, before continuing on to 7500, which I see as a major hold line, but below which next stop is 5500, 3500, 2500.
Each recovery get smaller on the way down :
DJIA dropped 14217 > 11423 = -2794
Rebounded 11423 > 13165 = +1742
Dropped again 13165 > 10833 = -2332
Rebounded 10833 > 11852 = +1019
and its dropping again…..
How to know when the final bottom is in ?
The DJIA will be 2.5 times the price of Gold – per the last 2 Depressions (according to some website)
At 7500 for DJIA Gold = $3000
At 5500 Gold = $2200 – more realistic since it went to $1100 off the first SubPrime news and DJIA was at 14000.
However Gold has its own problems and needs to get back down to $ 650 odd to meet its Wave future – Falling commodity prices seem to help this and a strong USD – both of which are present at the moment – will drive Gold down.
When the $2.5 Trillion bailout of Freddy & Fanny occurs next year, and the gazillion dollars held in foreign hands is returned, and the world is in global recession – then the Dollar bubble bursts and Gold goes into the stratosphere – just in time to meet Jesus on the way down for the Second Coming, to coincide with the Mayan End of World in 2012.
It will be a fun trip.

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Rexas_Texas
Guest
Rexas_Texas
September 7, 2008 12:26 am

WaveRider,

Whew, what are you smokin’ man.
This could be made into a ‘Destiny Calendar’ and widely marketed.Keep it lit man, I’ll be looking for you here.

John
Guest
John
November 2, 2008 8:38 am

Louis is not honest if not a liar.

His performance like beating S&P 4:1, 10:1 & 30:1 in his newsletters only mean his sucessful trades. He did not count his loss trades. Overall this year, index beat his portfolilio at least 2:1.

Edward M. Fischer
Guest
November 3, 2008 12:09 am

John, WHICH of Louis’s portfolios are you dishing? Blue Chip Growth, Emerging Markets, Global Growth, or anon. What support do you offer,that the index beats his portfolio 2:1 AND that he excludes the losses from his ratio to the S&P that the ratio only includes his successful trades? Just go to his web sites published Track Record to see the truth. Do you really believe someone would consistently subscribe to his services if they weren’t making money following his picks. Managing a multi $billion investment firm for many years lends support to his integrity and honesty and the only lies I hear are those from people who don’t have a clue, life’s losers. Put up the numbers to Prove he’s a liar, as I did with my Aug – Oct $14k+ profit for a 12.6% gain. How much profit did YOU make during the past Qtr from your Index investing?

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fred
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fred
January 10, 2009 5:11 pm

The January issue of Navellier’s Blue Chip Growth shows 25 of his recommendations out of the total portfolio of 30 picks are in negative territory ranging from -3.27% loss to -70.65% loss. Only 5 are positive ranging from 6.56% to 128.03% (Monsanto recommended in Feb.05). His writings sell hope, alas, for me not profit.

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John
Guest
John
March 7, 2009 8:38 pm
Simon
Guest
January 28, 2010 4:27 pm

Louis Navellier has his best luck (like a good number of so called ‘Gurus’) in a bull market… and i think he assumes he always is in a bull market. From what I can tell, he’s typically an earnings guy and bases alot of his recomendations on potential run up’s from a company reporting better than average earnings.
Unfortunately no one told him that were in a recession, and in these volitile times… that strategy doesn’t always work. I think where Louis fails his subscribers more than anywhere else, he leaves them to twist in the wind when one of his pics goes wrong… rather than teaching them about stop losses and money management. Any professional trader knows that understanding those things are more important than picking the right stock. With the skill of using stop losses, proper position sizing, and proper money management, you can be wrong a large percentage of the time and still make money over the long haul! Maybe Louis needs to learn about those things too… i don’t know.

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G. Shannon
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G. Shannon
August 22, 2010 1:26 pm

If I had the great knowledge these people claim to have I would just invest for myself and make a fortune and then retire young. Guess it really doesn't work that way because these people are really not that sure of themselves.