Author/Editor
Harry S. Dent and Rodney Johnson
Publisher
Boom and Bust Investor
Description
Uses demographic trends to identify economic booms and busts.
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3.1
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My wife subscribed to Harry’s newsletter. He predicted that in the fall of 2011 that the S&P would reach just above 1200 in October or November and then plunge below 700. Base on this perdition my wife took all her money out of the stock market and put it in cash. Needless to say, she lost over a 100K by missing the big stock market rally. Harry Dent has cost subscribers a lot of money with his wrong predictions.
Have been a recurring subscriber for several years and am a satisfied subscriber…Harry Dent even recently issued an apology for being off on his stock market prediction which actually went against his prediction…am a big believer in demographics moving the markets historically and Harry Dent performs meticulous and well documented research backing his pronouncements…his Boom and Bust portfolio picks and updates have done well for me and my portfolio
I have subscribed to Boom and Bust for justvyhispast year and don’ t plan to renew. I find that in general, these newsletters have some utility in getting different points of view and then making your own analyses by cross referencing and checking with comments on such sites as Alpha , Guru Focus, Valuentum and Cabot Benjamin Graham Value. The information overload is very high and I am now weeding out most of the newsletters.
I’ve been a subscriber to Boom and Busy for several years. Overall, I’m impressed with the quality of analysis and writing. Its *specific* investment advice, presented mainly by Charles Sizemore, is mostly sound and has worked out pretty well. Sizemore has a good track record of his own, independently of Dent Research.
Harry Dent’s reputation and meta-cosmic musings (or ravings, if you don’t like him) are another matter. He has a good record historically. He correctly predicted the boom of the 1990s, the tech crash of 2000-2002, the housing bubble, and the 2008 crisis. He more or less predicted the European debt crisis correctly, as well as Japan’s stagnation, long before most analysts did. Dent’s demographic approach is sound, and one wishes mainstream economists would take more notice.
Like almost everyone else who assumes a stable relationship between the real economy and the financial markets, Dent’s predictions have foundered a bit since 2014. The culprit, of course, is unprecedented monetary ease, for which there are no good historical analogues. It has transformed financial markets into a largely momentum-driven and psychological phenomenon, with almost no connection to economic fundamentals. Technical analysis reigns.
That’s why the specific investment advice from Dent Research has been generally good. It’s based on market internals, with only loose connections to fundamentals. It’s a sound approach: keep the full truth in the back of your mind — financial markets are massively distorted by central banks — even as you play their game in the meantime.
Harry’s right, though: we’re already paying a serious price for a generation of financial insanity, and the ultimate cost will be ugly. In the meanwhile, enjoy the ride and make some money.
(Compare: the Elliott Wave International people have a generally bearish outlook. But that doesn’t stop them from following the current trend and successfully applying their particular rules. They keep the larger picture in the background, and they know the trend will eventually turn in a devastating direction.)
I subscribe to Harry Dent’s newsletters because he is such a gloom and doomer. When everyone says UP!, he says DOWN! So, it is good to learn from both camps. Each of them will be right at some point in time.
Yes Dent is convincing with his demographic cliff argument but touvWOULD have kissed the bull run of the century if tou hadvavidly followed his advice! Whats worse is he is now reconnending BUYS. Arrgh. I have unsubscribed
This guy Harry Dent has been wrong more times than a professor at a for profit college grading papers. Yes, a lot can be explained by demographics, and he certainly stirs the honey pot but the stock picks are fairly useless. Good contrarian indicator. He recently turned bullish on stocks just as valuations are reaching nose bleed levels, consumer spending is getting scanty and the market has way over valued a “Trump Premium” on pro business initiatives like cutting taxes and stimulating the economy with guns and butter via a war with ISIS and Major Infrastructure. The sausage making sycophants in Washington will assure that he gets nothing accomplished. We are getting late in the business and real estate cycle, rates are rising: margin of safety warranted.
I find his use of demographics both compelling and interesting, it is certainly a useful corrective when reading all the talk of a never-ending bull run. I have been a subscriber for over a year so i cannot voucher for his timing but his advice is worth keeping in mind.
I made a lot of money in the 90’s after gaining huge risk tolerance from reading his “great boom ahead”. Have been a subscriber on and off for the last 15 years. I like his demographics but his timing really is bad. Been gloom and doom since 2001. But I keep reading it because I believe his demographics are important. Keeps me cautious when all other are saying “buy”. Of course I have probably been over cautious since 2001 because of reading him. A big negative is that he seems to enjoy more and more raving. Rodney, the new editor is a bit more rational.
I’m a subscriber. I think this letter is serious, priced fairly ($ 79) and so far their recos have been good. Dent has a certain opinion on where things will go but that’s the general frame. The recos stick well with the current action in the markets.
Harry’s grasp of demographics and cycles is interesting, but I’m not sure it is complete, as he seldom mentions the millennials. Moreover, it seems unlikely that he is the only author who factors demographics into his predictions. And he keeps postponing the cycle downturn he says is imminent.
I noticed exactly what you said, he is focused on the Baby Boomers, and rarely, if ever, mentions the Millennials, which in fact are a Larger Group.
I don’t do much of his investment ideas, but he is a most interesting read because of his total doom philosophy which seems to constantly slip away. Totally consumed with upgrade offers for the big buck letters to which I took a trial to 2 and lost with them both.
I signed up for a ‘sister publication’ on the Dent Research page, “John Del Vecchio’s Hidden Profits”. There was a 90 day unconditional money back gaurantee, similar to the 60 day on Boom and Bust. It took me less than an hour of analysis and reviewing prior months newsletters (and the model portfolio) to see that he’s underperformed the market by about 3 fold. I called to cancel my $49/1 year subscription, and was told I would receive a $44 refund. There is a “10% Restocking fee”. Even when I pointed out the advert said clearly that I could cancel within 90 days and get “Every Penny Back”. I know $5 isn’t a big deal, but speaks loudly of the business model of promise the world, then break the promise. Don’t cry for me, Amex will reverse the charge, but also think twice before signing up for any of the “Dent Research” publications. Stock tips and analysis is pretty much free on the web, if I’m going to pay for a stock newsletter, I expect great results that at least beat the market a little. Steer clear of Dent Research.
Subscribed late 2016. Harry Dent has consistently predicted that the sky is falling and of course consistently wrong. I guess his models don’t allow for reserve bank madness.
However, Harry does not run the Boom & Bust portfolio, that is done by Charles Sizemore. His 2017 picks have been OK, probably beating the SP500, depending on how much you allocated to their biggest winner ALB and biggest loser NCR. And he has clear Stop Loss values, which is a plus.
Yes, Harry missed the big prediction by forecasting a major move down in the markets in 2016. He apologized for that but says it is still coming. For individual recommended stocks, however, I’ve done very well following this newsletter. Two big misses recently, but overall I’m pleased with their recommendations. Most are winners. And they recommend specific stops to get you out if a stock heads south.
Ordered service in error and within minutes tried to cancel all services with no success. Next day called twice to cancel again, yet they are still sending unwanted emails. What is the problem with this company?
What I have to say is very important. I’ve known Harry Dent from his first book. In that book and based on his assumptions he made 2 Predictions!
1-Dow 10,000 by Year end 2,000 and more importantly
2-The Dow would hit 40,000 then reverse because of all the retirees taking money out of the market instead of putting in.
I followed him and he’s changed his mind several times depending on who was paying him.
He mafe one mistale, he assumed back then that more people would retire than still work. As you know after 2 major corrections people couldn’t afford to retite and the bulk are still working today!
This is why we habe a chance to add another 14,000 points on the Dow. Money is being invested because it’s the only chance for pe6to make significant money.
Do I believe that while we will have corrections along the way, this is an event 90 years in the making!
G-d Bless and lets keep it going.
We just sey a record! 50 months without a 5% correction!
Thank you President Trump.
Dent has made two other predictions, and solicited money based on these predictions:
He predicted $700 gold in 2016. He was wrong.
Then he predicted $700 gold in 2017. He was wrong again.
A broken clock is correct twice a day, 365 days a year. So a broken clock has been correct
1460 time in the last two years, whereas Mr. Harvard economist has been correct zero times on his gold predictions.
Tad too soon with the “Thank you”. Like other Presidents, Trump does not make the market go up or down for more than a couple of days at a time; but he tries to take credit for all your profits but none of your losses, just like Dent.
That’s correct, one error I believe he made is not realizing the millennial generation is just as big as the baby boom in it’s day. He’s also been calling for a complete collapse of all world stock markets for the last 8 years or so, and now, February 2019 is calling for a massive increase in all markets.
I purchased the newsletter in 2016 and never got around to really using it. I sent a note to cancel it last year and thought it was taken care of. It was not. I’ve sent 20 emails to their customer service team recently asking for my subscription to be cancelled and me fee returned to no avail.
I live people who know that Gold is about to fall even more & the dollar will rally, don’t you Travis?
I truly believe that Harry is onto something with his wave pattern theory but the fact we have ever more powerful and desperate Central Banks. prepared to do just about anything to keep the music playing renders many of his predictions about the future worthless.