Today we’ve got a two-fer — two different big publishers are teasing different “liquid biopsy” stocks, and I’m no expert on the technology or the prospects for this diagnostic “trend” that we’ve been hearing more about… so I’ll just sift the clues, identify the companies, and let you chatter about their merits amongst yourselves.
The first pitch that got sent our way is from Shah Gilani for his Capital Wave Forecast ($1,850 “on sale”), whose spiel hints at a stock that can “end the 8 deadliest diseases known to mankind” with a “painless, 5-minute treatment” that is “set to roll out in 246,000 doctors’ offices — and unleash $30 billion in new wealth.”
And the second is from Stephen Petranek for his Breakthrough Technology Alert ($1,000 “on sale”), who teases that this technology is “the key to defeating cancer” and that a “breakthrough California biotech company will soon distribute ‘free shares’ of valuable stock!”
Let’s go through them separately… we’ll start with Gilani’s Capital Wave Forecast pitch… here’s a taste of that ad:
“Right now, a new medical breakthrough is on the cusp of changing mankind forever.
“It’s a new, revolutionary way to attack the 8 deadliest diseases that afflict people over 55.
“I’m talking about devastating killers like colon and pancreatic cancer. Lymphoma and even lung cancer.
“The world’s top scientists are calling it the ‘Holy Grail’… the dawn of an ‘Enlightened Age’… worthy of a ‘ticker-tape parade in New York City.'”
Sounds delightful, right? Not that the promise is any different than pretty much every other “breakthrough” biotech stock idea that gets teased, but it’s nice to dream about the end of cancer. I don’t want to take too personal a stance here, but I also dislike cancer.
So what is this technology? It’s really a diagnostic tool, they refer to it as “liquid biopsy”, and the big goal is the diagnosis of cancer long before it’s showing obvious symptoms — something that would be a particular benefit, it is assumed, for diseases like lung cancer and pancreatic cancer, where patients may not have any symptoms until it’s almost too late to treat them.
“Liquid biopsy” means probably what you think it does — using a simple blood or urine sample to identify cancer (and even, in some cases, to enable “personalized medicine” and identify specific types of cancers or variations that are best fought with specific drugs), instead of a more invasive (and sometimes risky) needle biopsy or other test.
Here’s more from Gilani:
“This little-known breakthrough has reached its tipping point – a huge one – changing its current status as an ‘exclusive procedure’ in just a handful of locations around the world…
To one that some are referring to as a new Universal Treatment.
“Meaning you could soon simply ask for it in any of the 246,000 doctors’ offices and hospitals across the U.S. – making what’s about to unfold perhaps the fastest and biggest medical rollout in history.”
And that’s part of the pitch as well, that this “liquid biopsy” testing could spread to regular doctors’ office quickly and therefore spread diagnostic ability quickly, particularly for the areas of the country where oncologists are in short supply. That’s how Gilani builds up to that $30 billion number when talking about the market for these tests.
That seems like a pretty big stretch to me, but it’s not uncommon for newsletter pitches to turn what I think of as a gradual, maybe someday transition into a “this will all happen next year and make you rich” argument.
So which of the “liquid biopsy” diagnostics companies is Gilani pitching? Let’s check some of his more specific clues:
“… less than 12 weeks ago, it would have cost you upwards of $5,400 per treatment.
“But today, you can access these lifesaving benefits for as little as $299….
“Those who invest in this market early could watch their money multiply faster than rabbits – by 20, 40, even 50 times…
“As annual sales grow from just $100 million today to over $30 billion annually – a colossal jump of 29,900%.”
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And then the letter, which is actually from Alex Williams, one of the publishers at Money Map Press, goes on to tell us all the things he wouldn’t have known were it not for Shah Gilani’s brilliance…
“I wouldn’t have known that this treatment could identify cancer in seemingly healthy people almost three decades before a symptom shows up.
“I also wouldn’t have known that a recently IPO’d company in Massachusetts just built a ‘factory’ specifically designed for the continued advancement of this treatment…
“Or that Bill Gates, Yuri Milner and Google have invested millions of dollars in this company because they believe that this is the future of ALL CANCER TREATMENT…
“I wouldn’t have known that the world’s biggest cancer drug maker has already claimed a $1.03 billion stake in this same startup and plans to distribute their treatments to Europe, China, Canada, Australia, India, and Israel – eventually expanding their patient market eight times over the U.S. alone.
“And I would have had no idea that this particular company has the potential to reward investors with gains of up to 724% over the next 12 to 18 months.”
And finally, the little sum-up of enthusiasm about this “one tiny company” that Shah Gilani is apparently recommending:
“One Tiny Company Has Just Built a “Liquid Biopsy Factory” in Preparation for their 2016 Worldwide Rollout
“And this is your opportunity to profit from every single liquid biopsy test that rolls off the assembly line….
“This company’s founding advisors include high-ranking members of the Broad Institute at MIT, the Dana-Farber Cancer Institute, and Harvard Medical School.
“One is Chairman of the Board of Scientific Advisors to The National Cancer Institute and was named Discover magazine’s ‘Health Inventor of the Year.’
“Yet another was a principal leader of The Human Genome Project….
“Google Ventures, the tech company’s venture capital arm… grabbed an 8.7% ownership stake….
“Another hugely positive indicator is the investment from none other than Bill Gates, who backed the company in a $13.5 million round of funding.”
So that ought to be enough for the Thinkolator, right? Right, indeed — Thinkolator says this must be: Foundation Medicine (FMI), which is indeed a fairly recent IPO, and which sold a controlling stake to Roche back in January for about a billion dollars (only a quarter of that went to FMI in cash, the rest was spent to buy out existing shareholders in a tender offer at $50 a share, causing the stock to spike from the low $20s to just under $50 for a few months). Since the Spring, FMI has been much less rewarding for shareholders, it has fallen steadily, with a few substantial stumbles along the way, to where it is now (about $18).
There was a bit of bottom-fishing excitement earlier in the month when it dipped into the $16s, and the shares are up a bit today on fairly high volume, which might be at least partly because of Gilani’s big push… so the one month chart may give a feeling of optimism while the one-year chart illustrates nothing but doom and dismay. Roche’s billion-dollar investment is now worth about $350 million.
Will it come around from here? I have no idea. They do have a “factory” in Massachusetts, they do sell a DNA assay test for cancer called FoundationOne (introduced in 2012), Bill Gates did participate in a $13.5 million funding round with Yuri Milner and others, Google Ventures does currently own about 7% of the company after participating in funding rounds in 2011 and 2012 (it was probably roughly 8.7% before the new shares were created in the Roche deal). Just for further confirmation, Google Ventures currently has stakes in 27 life sciences and health companies — and Foundation Medicine is the only one that’s public.
They do also have a real business with real revenue, trailing revenue is close to that $100 million/year level ($86 million currently) — not nearly enough to make them profitable, as you probably guessed, but enough to take them seriously as a real business. Particularly since they have that $250 million in the bank to support their continued R&D and sales efforts as they develop their genetic cancer tests. Their cost of goods has come in at about 40%, so the gross profit even sounds pretty good at about $50 million/year — but once you add in the SG&A costs and R&D that gross profit disappears pretty quick, those operating costs are totaling about $135 million a year these days… and, in what is another indication of a company that may be a ways from maturing, the costs are starting to climb more quickly than revenue (over the past year, revenue is up 40%, operating costs are up 54% — that relationship was reversed in 2013 and 2014, when revenues were growing more quickly).
Why did the share crash back to earth after the effect of the Roche takeover settled in? I have no idea. Haven’t been following them, though Dr. KSS, who writes about biotech stocks for the Irregulars, didn’t like FMI over a year ago, well before the Roche deal, and has been consistently skeptical of them in subsequent comments this year.
And as far as the cost of the test, I have no idea where Gilani gets his $299 number — perhaps that’s an example from a different company in the “liquid biopsy” space, but Foundation’s tests are genetic assays and they’re expensive — the basic FoundationOne test is $5,800, the blood cancer-focused FoundationOne Heme is $7,200. That’s a long way from the $100 neighborhood where it might possibly become a widely used screening tool — and, of course, we’re also not quite at the point where a blood test can necessarily tell you where the cancer is in the body.
There’s an interesting article on the whole “liquid biopsy” cancer testing movement here, from MIT Technology Review back in 2014, and that might help to give you some more idea of both the promise and limitations of these tests — I am not very well informed about FMI or any of the others, but I do know that there are lots of companies pursuing this kind of “liquid biopsy” and more advanced genetic testing of blood and urine to search for and screen for abnormalities and illnesses… it seems exciting and provides some hope for earlier detection of cancer or other diseases, but presumably costs would have to come way, way down — and perhaps quality would have to improve — for much more widespread use of these tests in the general population.
Still, having Roche back you with a controlling investment stake isn’t a bad thing, and they are in fine shape as far as the balance sheet goes, so you can make your own call about the speed with which they’re likely to grow… and grow into the cost structure that they currently have. I’m pretty sure they won’t go from $85 million to $30 billion in sales next year, as Gilani’s ad implies, and I’d have to have some confidence that they have some kind of plan to triple revenue without tripling operating expenses in order to see this as a scalable business, but that doesn’t mean they can’t be a good investment — just that it’s not a “no brainer” and the odds are long that it will return 700% or whatever made-up number is used in the ads, at least in the next year or two. Analysts are predicting about 30% sales growth next year, which is nowhere near enough to turn it into a sexy dynamo of a stock — they can be wrong, for sure, but I’m positive that they know more about FMI than I do. Beyond that, I’ll leave it to you.
Because I’ve got another liquid biopsy stock to check out for you — this one hasn’t generated quite as much interest among Gumshoe readers as Gilani’s ad, going just by the number of folks who forwarded the email to me (incidentally, please do forward any interesting teaser ads you see to ILoveStockSpam@gmail.com — that’s one way we find out what our readers want to see covered), but it’s certainly got its share of hype and promise.
Here’s how that ad opens:
“Breakthrough California Biotech Company Will Soon Distribute
“FREE Shares” of Valuable Stock!
“Keep Reading to Discover How to Claim Your ‘Free Shares’
“You MUST Act Before 4PM EST on Monday December 21st…”
And they use one of the common tropes of newsletter teaserdom, the “this mysterious building” pitch where they show Google Earth images of the bland-looking headquarters of our secret company, only to conjure up glorious fantasies about the wealth being generated therein. Here’s a bit of that, for those who like that sort of thing:
“This may look like an ordinary office building to the naked eye.
“It’s located on the beautiful tree-lined streets of northern California across from the headquarters of a Super-Bowl-winning professional football team.
“And just a few blocks away you’ll find a regional office of the powerful US Food & Drug Administration.
“Yet while it may look like just another building, few people realize a major medical revolution is taking shape behind these brick walls.
“It could save the lives of millions of folks stricken with cancer.”
That must work well at generating interest from potential subscribers, because copywriters use this trick all the time. I have no idea why it works, but I do appreciate the fact that I can double check the Thinkolator results by looking up the Google Earth images myself.
And who wouldn’t want “free shares?”
“For an extremely LIMITED TIME, you can get in on the ground floor as one company is doing the unthinkable – they’re simply giving their shareholders even more ‘FREE shares’ of valuable stock.”
That happens with some regularity in the stock market, of course — and there’s nothing “Free” about “Free shares.” Most people call them spinoffs or carve-outs, it’s what happens when a company decides that one of their divisions would be more valuable or get more investor attention if it were separate, and they split it off on its own — generally they give the shares of the new company to existing shareholders, though sometimes they also IPO them and sell shares to new shareholders if they need the cash. Calling these “free” shares is a little silly — the value of the subsidiary or division is already reflected in the stock, at least theoretically, and the total value of the two companies should be very similar to the value the combined company had just prior to the split.
In practice, spinoffs are often very good investments — both because it is possible to “create value” by giving a subsidiary it’s own race to run without worrying about the parent or losing focus, and because some people find “pure play” and more understandable companies more valuable (and, perhaps as importantly, because spinoffs are often cheap in the months after they’re spun off because they’re orphans that a lot of the parent company investors don’t want and no one else has heard of them. But that’s a general assertion, it means that buying 500 spinoffs is probably better than buying 500 companies at random… it doesn’t mean this one Petranek is pitching is guaranteed to succeed… or that it will be better to buy it pre-spin (by buying the parent) than to buy it in a few weeks when lots of folks who got the spun-off shares are trying to sell them.
But I’ve gotten off track a bit — what, then, is our company? More clues:
“The company you’re about to see is one of the most creative companies in the world.
“Not only for their breakthrough technologies… but because of the amazing ways they’ve decided to reward their shareholders.
“For example,just last year they did something similar to what I’m showing you today…
“During a 73-day window of opportunity in 2014…
“Exactly 6,537,779 ‘free shares’ were distributed.
“And within 9 months, anyone holding 1,000 shares could have sold them for $14,770.”
That’s a reference to Asterias (AST), which was spun out of Geron and BioTime last year and did peak at $14.77 a share. It was a ridiculously complicated spinoff, with warrants and shareholdings back and forth, and with other capital raises, so I’m not sure exactly what you would have had to buy to have 1,000 shares of Asterias… but if you got Asterias because you were a Geron shareholder, that would mean you’d have had to have 24,000 shares of Geron to get 1,000 shares of spun-off AST (at the time it was ASTY, it traded OTC for a little while) — GERN was around $2.00-2.50 at that time, in mid-2014, so that would have been about $50K. It might well have worked out well, since those GERN shares have about doubled over the past year, but you would have had to be pretty nimble to sell AST at $14.77 — it was a short, sharp spike to get there during those earlier headier days of ebullient biotech stocks (six months ago), and the stock is now in the $4 range.
So is this a pitch for buying Geron (GERN)? Probably not, Geron owned about 20% of Asterias because they helped to create it when they effectively gave up on their human embryonic stem cell research and sold that division to BioTime (BTX). BioTime is the more likely target here — particularly because Breakthrough Technology Alert has been hyper-happy about BioTime for more than seven years (under at least three different editors). Their longtime fondness for the stock is not necessarily a bad thing, folks who bought on the first tease in the Fall of 2008 would have gotten shares at about a dollar, so they’re happy… those who saw a similar pitch from this same newsletter in March 2011 when the stock was at $7.50 or so are probably less pleased, the shares are around $3.50 now.
The hype has been absurd all along the way, of course, no one has gotten “life-changing wealth” from this stock like Petranek’s predecessor Patrick Cox was saying four, five, seven and eight years ago… but absurd hype is par for the course, and the stock has been profitable for some of those shareholders.
What are these “Free shares?” Well, that confirms that we’re being teased about BioTime — they are indeed doing another spinoff, this time of their diagnostics division OncoCyte. The shares will be spun off with a record date of December 21, but according to the press release from BioTime you don’t actually have to own BTX on the record date to get the shares — the OncoCyte shares right will convey with BTX shares until the distribution actually takes place, which they think will be on or by December 31.
It should start trading either that day or shortly thereafter as a separate company, either OTC or on the NYSE — they’ve applied for a listing on the NYSE with the ticker OCX. You’ll get 1 shares of OncoCyte for each 20 shares of BTX you own, and I have no idea how OncoCyte will be priced on that first day of trading — but yes, to buy OncoCyte before it starts trading separately you’d have to buy BTX, and buying 20 shares of BTX to get one share of OncoCyte means it would cost you a fair amount to build up a large OncoCyte position (each $70 or so investment in BTX today will get you a share of OncoCyte). Not free, but how much it really costs will depend on how OncoCyte is priced and what happens to the BTX share price after the spinoff (probably not a lot — OncoCyte is not their most important asset by a long shot, and they’ll go from owning 76% of OncoCyte to owning 58% of it.
And OncoCyte is indeed a “liquid biopsy” company, though they’re nowhere near as far along as Foundation Medicine — they’re not, for example, actually selling anything yet. The latest BioTime investor presentation indicates that their diagnostic tests for cancer have not yet reached the “R&D Validation Study” phase… I don’t know what that means, but it sounds pretty far away from “generating revenue.”
Petranek says this about OncoCyte:
“Telomeres are biological ‘caps’ found at the end of chromosomes.
“They protect the DNA in chromosomes much like the caps on the ends of shoelaces protect the shoestring and prevent it from fraying.
“As we age, our telomeres get shorter and shorter as the cells repeatedly split and divide until the point where the DNA can be damaged more easily and cause disease.
“It’s similar to the way the cap of a shoelace wears out over time. As the caps age and wear out the shoestring frays and unravels resulting in permanent damage.
“Scientists at Harvard and Northwestern have recently discovered a distinct pattern in the changing length of telomeres that can identify and possibly even predict cancer.
“What’s IMPORTANT to understand is this…
“The small private company I’ve been telling you about has developed cancer diagnostics that look at telomerase genes as the biomarker to identify cancer.
“Even better, as I just told you, these cancer biomarkers can be identified through simple blood and urine tests.
“Wouldn’t it be great to avoid the pain and discomfort from current cancer diagnostic tests…
“And still be able to identify and possibly even predict cancer earlier and more accurately with a simple blood or urine test you could take at an annual physical?
“I expect these breakthrough cancer tests to be widely used by every doctor’s office in America. And it could happen in as little as just 12 months from today.”
And he says that this cancer diagnostics market is worth $100 billion and expected to climb to $168 billion by 2020… and that this “small private company” he’s teasing us about can take a meaningful chunk of that market…
“The small private company I’ve been telling you about today projects it can generate:
– $500 MILLION annually from its bladder cancer test
– $525 MILLION from its lung cancer test
– And a whopping $2.5 BILLION from its breast cancer test.
“That’s a total of $3.5 billion in annual revenues protected by a strong portfolio of patents.”
Will it? Beats me. But I don’t see any indication that this is coming anytime soon — or that these tests have a strong chance of being introduced to the market and used by doctors within the next 12 months. I could be missing something, or I might be more skeptical than you are, but I assume it will be a while.
Oh, and in case you want a picture of that “ordinary office building,” I did in fact go to Google and double check that street view image — here’s your unbiased peek at the headquarters of BioTime (and OncoCyte), courtesy of Google:
So yes, Petranek is clearly teasing BioTime… and frankly, I’ve given up on trying to understand that company — they’ve been around forever, they have some valuable subsidiaries (their Asterias shares are probably worth $100 million if they haven’t sold any this year), they have a visionary leader who is a giant in regenerative medicine and stem cells, they keep forming new subsidiaries and spinning them off and partnering things with various other companies, and they continue to sell stem-cell related materials and license stem cell lines and generate some revenue… but they’ve been public since 1992, and it’s only been in a couple of those years recently that they’ve had sales that cover even a tenth of their operating expenses… and they’ve been teased as the smart bet for regenerative medicine for so long that it’s all a fog of hype for me.
Which means that I’ll now pass it back to you, dear readers — I’m sure some of you remember past BioTime teases, or may even be shareholders who follow the company more closely… what excites or repels you when it comes to BioTime (or Foundation Medicine, for that matter… or OncoCyte)? Let us know with a comment below.
We introduced the circulating tumor cell concept to all Irregulars in 2014 with our in depth article on BioCept. Which STILL has the best method for “liquid biopsy.” But it has done nothing as an investment and for now neither will anything else in this space. At least 3 dozen companies have CTC detection methods, and predicting leaders and winners is impossible.
Thanks Dr.
Yes BTX is it. This is one of those stocks that Petranek holds onto until he has a really bad year. Then he can say sell and the 300% gain will juice his annual #’s.
Is CERU one of the Stocks you talk about? It is a steal at $3
Never heard of that one.
A diagnostic assay is in no way a cure for anything so I don’t know why it is being touted as such. Until the cost of these tests is in the low 100s nobody will buy them and I seriously doubt that they will pick up circulating tumor cells 20 years before any symptoms become evident. Even if they do- who’s going to buy them when they appear perfectly healthy? I wouldn’t touch these until the field matures.
ThanksTravis and the Doc’s.
Sounds so awesome. Then sounds like making mountains out of ant hills.
Thanks to your gumshoing at least the right building.
What kinda crap is going on these days? I’ve been
Lookin’ all nite for this garbage, and then I had to check in to my trusted site, stockgumshoe.
Man, I wish I would’ve started here. I gotta believe there’s something here, I mean, how could a guy put a sell and that crap, and feel good about himself? Maybe we are gonna be nuked soon. Everyone wants your dough! That guy ain’t gonna be wearing a suit anymore, what’s his name, Armani? Bozo.
As Dr KSS pointed out, the field is crowed and it’s impossible to predict winners (as is true for all early stage biotechs).
The fact that a major company like Roche invested does not change this assessment. It does mean that the company is not a fraud. But first, Roche and such have often been wrong. Second, their success in investing does not necessarily translate in yours. They may have invested to get access to a patent for their own developments. Or they may eventually leave the company as an empty shell, having secured all rights in exchange for further funding.
Dr. Boris’ statement that cost would need to come down to the low 100s may need a qualification: There are subgroups where a much higher cost test could make sense. Take patients after primary colon cancer surgery. Depending on the cancer stage they have a risk of developing metastasis in the order of 40% within 5 years. A higher cost test to assess whether there are circulating tumor cells two years after surgery could be useful. Such a test could then be followed up by an even more expensive positron emission tomography (PET) to locate micro-metastasis for secondary surgery. And yes, liquid biopsy doesn’t cure anything by itself.
Thanks Paul — that’s similar to what I’ve been reading on this of late, the sentiment that this is most likely to be useful in targeted groups monitoring cancer levels after treatment. Which does not lend itself to the $100 billion market claims anytime soon, even if it does end up being a useful technology as it continues to improve, and even to grow in importance over many years.
Newsletters very typically make this same leap in their ads — they posit a huge advance in technology or a great new product idea, then jump right past any notion of other companies who are working on it or who have similar technologies and assert that “this one small company” will not just survive and create a viable product or get approval or whatever, but actually claim a meaningful slice of the market with strong pricing power (or, in most cases, dominate the market). Great marketing, not necessarily compelling logic when you’re dealing with competitive businesses and the uncertainty of predicting the future.
The last paragraph beautifully sums up the hypological hopium that is so misleading and downright deceptive peddled by so much of the financial fluff that tries to pass for investment advice. Thanks for busting the baloney baloons before they break the banks of naive investors like me.
If you have not already, I would love to read what investments and screening protocols you believe will be beneficial to those trying to increase their net worth rather than decrease it.
Since this whole discussion is about profiting from prediction of future biotech winners a few years at best down the road (pretty much like picking the Kentucky Derby winner three years from now as soon as the colt is born and has a name – but has not yet run, much less raced), what company do I buy that has PET scans that detect MICRO metastases? Probably no big rush however. It would probably take 5 or 10 years to figure out the significance OF micro metastases.
I’m with Doc G above. Actually, this whole process is not going to be that simple. Circulating tumor cells may be shed cells from a tumor, which could tell you which cell type of origin, and therefore provide some guidance for where to look when he’s a big boy, but the early shed cells may or may not actually be the STEM cells of the tumor, and it’s the genetic and epigenetic characteristics of the STEM cells of the tumor that really govern your prognosis. Highly active STEM cells from the tumor are the ones that ultimately actually form future micrometastases, because they are the cells that have the potential to really create a new tumor when planted in the right spots. Right now, our ability to predict whether any particular circulating tumor cell is simply a shed soldier or a potential future revolutionary is pretty poor – highly variable from one type of cancer to another, and will become absolutely necessary to really exploit the information to the decisive advantage of the patient. Merely being able to snag tumor cells out of the circulation and extract some genotypic information is just barely getting your foot in the door, and we have a lot more to learn before these early capabilities will translate into real medical/biologic advantages. There’s no hurry to invest – the basic science still has probably another 5 years, and possibly a requirement for quantum computing at a practical level, before a clear winner could even start to develop. Right now, about the most that any of the current capabilities has to offer is a bit of sharpening of our ability to predict who needs a more intensive frequency and depth of surveillance/monitoring.
The other thing I forgot to mention in the prior comment is the fact that current best estimates are that only about 1 in 100 cancers that all of us form is actually capable of consistently escaping immune destruction. Only that “privileged” 1% is worth detecting early in the game – why would you want to detect any of the other 99 that are already destined to be handily dispatched by your own immune system? The thing is, we still aren’t very good at predicting whether we’ve trapped a “one-percenter” capable of evolving into a bona fide problem, or just another “commoner” destined to be tossed onto the offal heap, in need of no help from the medical profession.
Very well put, but then that only makes the case for lifestyle changes that will help strengthen our natural immune system. Trust mother nature by doing your part and put less faith in pharmaceutical companies chemical interventions.
Hello Staff; You might want to tell your Boss that CYCA should be looked at as this company has a very good program that connects Doctors to their general customers that they are severing. CYCA is very low right now, but in a few months when some of the big bluetooth equipment makers need to connect through the cloud they will deal with CYCA. Just a quiet word to your investigators. R…..
FMI 16.50 to 22.68 so far, happy holidays!!
16.50 to 20.90… unless you sold at today’s high, in which case you have impeccable timing.
maybe FMI will hit its 200SMA. Good luck.
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=FMI&p=D&b=5&g=0&id=p57120846244
Merry Christmas.
I have no doubt that tests will emerge in time that can fairly quickly identify cells shed from tumors in the circulation. But I have huge doubts whether these tests will be highly useful with regard to identifying patients that will benefit from early treatment. They might be compared to the full body scans that some people have had done – in a few cases, something might be discovered that required treatment, but in most cases even if abnormal findings emerged, it was not clear whether any intervention would be beneficial.
Disclosure, long Geron (GERN), which I believe is a good speculative investment and has an excellent chance of getting its drug (Imetelstat) to market for multiple indications, thanks to its collaboration with JNJ (Johnson & Johnson).
Imetelstat is a telomerase inhibitor to treat myeloid malignancies. A Phase II trial in previously treated myelofibrotic patients has been underway for several months. Upon successful completion of this trial, JNJ anticipates filing for FDA approval sometime in 2017.
Previous trials were successful, in my opinion. The remissions in the Mayo Pilot study are unprecedented in Myelofibrosis and according to Geron’s CEO, Dr. John Scarlett, are the reason JNJ was intent on partnering with Geron and why JNJ has proceeded at full speed not only with the now underway MF trial, IMbark, but with the just commencing MDS trial, IMerge, which is a Phase 2/3 trial. Also per Dr. Scarlett, the early planning stages for the AML trial, which is certain to be a combo therapy trial, are about to begin.
The news so far is good. As presented at the recent ASH conference, 3 of 8 patients became transfusion independent for a substantial period of time and a 4th patient got significant benefit. Other benefits have been noted. Side effects are manageable by physicians. Also, 7 out of 9 MDS RARS patients demonstrated clinical benefit.
While the MDS data was just 9 patients, seven improved, some dramatically, which is significant. In both the MF and new MDS trials, these patients are very sick and have NO OPTIONS; there are NO drugs that are approved or improve the current, dire situation (other than a small subset in MDS). Imetelstat is working on 60-80% of these patients in both MF and MDS and having a significant positive impact on 20-40%. Much of the mutation/chromosome data is an effort to figure out which patients fit into which category- personalized medicine. The data, while previously mentioned in the abstract, is very strong.
While many drugs target specific mutations, imetelstat targets telomerase, which is in 85-90% of cancers, and therefore imetelstat is working on multiple cancers and multiple mutations. JNJ and Scarlett’s team are just trying to figure out the correlations and will carry those correlations into other indications.
There are just nominal side-effects, again great news. The drug is very well tolerated.
Piper Jaffray analyst Charles Duncan raised his price target on Overweight-rated Geron Corporation (NASDAQ: GERN) to $10.00 (from $5.00) (Dec. 7, 2015).
As reported by a medical clinician at the recent ASH conference, imetelstat patients became transfusion independent, an important endpoint for the drug because transfusions are both signs of anemia, I believe, and in and of themselves the cause of other serious medical complications, sometimes life threatening. These were the longest responses then [9,28,37 weeks]; however, the duration of responses ends when a transfusion takes place and a new window starts fresh after that. These patients REMAIN ON STUDY AND MAY YET OBTAIN LONGER RESPONSES BY THE TIME THE STUDY ENDS.” Sounds to me like the ongoing data from the past 7 months is just as good with little to no drop in response, maybe improved response? “May yet obtain longer responses” Impressive and overlooked here.
Duration of response and TI are critical data points for patients and the FDA, and perhaps this means some might now not be needing new transfusions and have reset new time windows for TI. Moreover, it is great that a patient can go a number of weeks without transfusions, but if the drug stopped working and the patient went back to a poor state of health and relapsed after that window closed, that wouldn’t be as impressive. Here, patients seem to be getting remarkable and extended benefit, even if they have only one or two transfusions, and they get back on the healthy track again after extended hiatus from the drug. The fact that these patients remain on study after 2 years is also significant.
This news along with the fact that other patients in the study also benefited (two patients had their transfusion rate cut substantially) and the spleen response was 1 for 1, Neutrophil and platelet count resolution for two patients; it all is very significant that 7 of 9 patients responded in a disease that has no options and no approved drugs for these patients. Obvious unmet need being addressed.
I recommend anyone interested in exploring Geron first go to Geron.com and listen to the three very recent webcasts that are available. I’d listen first to the Piper Jaffrey presentation, which is very conversational and will serve as an excellent introduction and overview. Then I’d listen to the recent Oppenheimer presentation, saving the ASH presentation for last because it has several speakers and what they say will be easier to assimilate if you already have the basis the Piper Jaffrey and Oppenheimer presentations will lend you. Of course, when analyzing any company, Management is crucial, and these presentations will give you the chance to evaluate Dr. Scarlett as well.
If after listening to the investor presentations from the last few weeks, you are interested in investigating further, Geron has had many articles written about it on Seeking Alpha.
In any event, thanks to Travis the big foot Gumshoe for this any numerous other stunning explications!!
Interesting, dialysis for cancer cells.
http://qz.com/578473/biochip-that-filters-cancer-from-blood-could-be-used-to-cleanse-away-the-disease/?utm_source=dlvr.it&utm_medium=twitter
The same tease is out there today saying whatever this stock is, it had big news yesterday morning (12/21/15) at 6:30am.
“At 6:30 a.m., the tiny “Universal Treatment” stock I’ve been telling you about announced a huge deal with America’s biggest healthcare firm. The stock popped on nearly triple volume and indications of heavy hedge fund interest.
This thing just picked up momentum like I’ve never seen, and it’s just the beginning”
The link refers to the same “End of 8 Deadliest Diseases” tease.
But I don’t see any news on either FMI or BXT.
That’s a reference to this press release: http://investors.foundationmedicine.com/releasedetail.cfm?ReleaseID=947721
FMI got coverage approval from UnitedHealth for their product to be used by some patients. I don’t know if “huge deal” is accurate, but getting insurance coverage for genomic analysis of cancers will obviously be important to expanding use of FoundationOne and other products. The stock did trade on higher volume yesterday, and did pop up a bit in the morning — whether it’s because of that news or not, I don’t know.
As a patient who has suffered total colotomy in 2007 and a liver section in 2011, and who has gone through all the agony and pain (very physical and psychological) of such trauma, I cannot for the life of me understand how anyone could possibly seek to profit from presenting false or misleading information well intended as may be on such matters. Truly it seems that money is the root of all evil.
liquid biopsy = SQNM
BIOC is very close to profitability on many liquid biopsy test AND has Blue Cross Blue Shield coverage in many areas now. One to watch.
Liquid Biopsy could also be Trovogene (TROV) which has been a good investment for me.
Liquid Biopsy done by Dattar Genetics India has done good in therapy management and recurrence monitoring of patients.
http://datarpgx.com/liquidbiopsy/