Author/Editor
Chris Mayer
Publisher
Agora Financial
Description
Edited by Chris Mayer, a stock picking newsletter that looks for undervalued and “hidden” stocks. Ceased publishing when Mayer left to write a couple new letters for Bonner & Partners.
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Rating: 3.2/5. From 5 votes.
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3.1
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Investment Performance
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Chris Mayer is great at writing copy to suck you into his service but he’s not that great at picking stocks. If you put $5,000 into each of his 13 closed trades for 2008 you would have $62,050 left from $65,000 invested. Better than most hedge funds or mutual funds, but not as good as Adam Lass with his Wavestrength Options Weekly. The stocks that Chris looks at are pretty safe bets, with some returning over 100% and some losing 80%. Nothing earth shattering with this service as most of the companies have been around for years with good earnings… Read More »
Capital & Crisis
Pays no attention to supply and demand and is reluctant to offer sell recos. Return in alphabetical order, Core Portfolio: -17.68, -12.41, -73.15, -1.05, -26.26, -77.63, -27.31, -12.80, -26.50, -34.13, -75.02, -26.44, -47.45, -62.64, -29.22, +39.27 in 2006,
-22.39, +40.75 in 2008, -13.21.
Special Situations Portfolio: -86.04, -76.66, -72.01, -75.45, -51.15, -36.28.
If my performance was this bad I would be fired.
OSG Leases in ships that they operate or sublease, they don’t lease them out to other operators as far as I know, and I don’t think they have a relationship with Seadrill (haven’t checked, but OSG is primarily an operator of oil and product tankers, plus a few LNG and other vessels). Not a bad tanker company, fairly conservative, and I think they’re US-owned and flagged, at least in part, which gives them some Jones Act business. I owned shares a number of years ago but haven’t looked at them lately. Are you sure you’re not thinking of SFL? They… Read More »
I have lost a lot of money on his picks. So I stopped trading his picks.
Capital and Crisis by Chris Mayer is the best investment newsletter I have ever found. I have had it for 2-3 years at $49 per year/auto renew. He is a value investor and provides great historical references to other great value investors. He calculates the value of the company and compares it to the current stock price and gives you buy up to prices and also keeps you informed with weekly updates. I have recommended this to my kids just for the learning experience. I highly recommend his book: Invest like a Dealmaker, Wiley,2008. His other newsletter, Mayer’s Special Situations,… Read More »
I wouldn’t buy anything just because he recommended it, of course, but as a long term investment for the commodity-related portion of my portfolio I like the backstop provided by the cash and liquid assets on the books for both of these companies. They could certainly go down, with or without Ferris behind them.
Chris Mayer is very conservative in his stock recommendations. He likes infrastructure companies, dividend-paying companies, companies who have money in the bank, natural resource companies, and holding-company stocks. The latter term is how I describe a conglomerate whose business is owning various stocks and other assets, and whose chieftain(s) have a record of successful investing. Think about the Tisch family — they run Loews (L). Mayer’s portfolio has been hit pretty hard since mid-98 (but whose portfolio hasn’t been clobbered?). Mayer’s oldest holding goes back to Feb 05. It seems to me that his turnover rate isn’t very high. My… Read More »
One disadv that all newsletter advisories suffer from is making picks every month. I have yet to see someone make only 6 picks for the entire year. So in such cases it is important that the editor look for both buy and sell recos. Chris gives only buys. And so his portfolio got burnt in 2008. His picks are sound for his fundamental analysis which looks diligent. But the timing is off. If he were to use his diligence in making sell recos too I am sure he would come out somewhere near the top.
Chris Mayer hadn’t proffered a new buy recommendation for a very very long time, until this newest issue, for April 2009. The performance has been awful. Buy and hold hasn’t worked of course, and he doesn’t recommend cutting losses fast enough or often enough. If you are concerned with limiting your downside, you can’t rely on him for such advice. Anyone who actually buys a Mayer recommendation when he recommends it should diligently hedge and expect to have to do that for years to come. The analysis is interesting, and well articulated. His timing is miserable, but there is a… Read More »
What folks need to understand is this guy is not a trader he’s an investor… You don’t get very many sell recommendations because he wants to hold great companies for as long as he can. He is a true value investor. Unfortunately these guys have to make picks even if they don’t think it’s great time to buy stocks. Now is the perfect time to subscribe to this letter when Chris can find great companies selling for prices we haven’t seen in decades. Don’t buy this letter trying to make a quick buck. This is guy is rising star… Follow… Read More »
CAPITAL & CRISIS is very well written & explains the economic disaster both in historical terms as well as the current culprits.
I think one of these prior reviews hit the key point: the guy is a long-term investor, not a trader. Don’t expect him to swing you in and out of stuff. He is careful with recommendations, sometimes skipping months. In March he doubled up, picking up two gems that have nearly doubles since. He also made some timely swaps, selling one position and buying something else. So, I’d say his timing is not all bad. But the real value in the letter is just the fun and education you get from reading it. His issues are well-written and always interesting.… Read More »
Although it’s clear from the portfolio listing in the newsletter that the vast majority of his picks have lost money from the time he recommended them, I happened to subscribe late last year and eventually have bought most of his portfolio. The average over about 17 stocks is an increase of 25%. However, I do set trailing stops on most, and have been stopped out on a few. I think in some cases, but not all, he did issue sell recommendations.
Chris Meyer recommends deep value stocks and is willing to wait years for the market to agree with him. For the price, the C&C newsletters are worth reading just for the educational value alone. When a pick blows up, he doesn’t sweep it under the rug but devotes space to figure out what the flaw in his thinking was. I don’t buy everything Chris recommends but the letter helps me invest more wisely.
Wow, I wished I knew of Nouriel Roubini then…
Subcribed in July and bought three or four recos so far. TIE, CDE, L, NGD. Can’t complain. But in this market?
Capital and Crisis was marketed under the pretense that Chris Mayer would take his experience and find good companies to recommend specifically during these difficult times. Here are the results for the year 2008 and most of 2009: BIP bought 01-08 for $19.50, sold 04-09 for $13.80…held for 15 months for 24% loss. CVI bought in 02-08, sold 03-09 for $3.95…held for 13 months for a 85% loss. DEL bought in 05-07 for $51.14, sold 03-09 for $28.78…held for 22 months for 43% loss. GGG bought 03-08 for $34.22, sold 03-09 for $15.06…held for 12 months for 54% loss. And… Read More »
Great letter… the above reviews that focus on the losers are just ridiculous. Mayer’s average for 2009 was about 50%… He has six doubles on his back page – out of 10 picks – for 2009 alone.
Besides that, I just love reading it. He often travels and writes about the places he’s been – Australia and New Zealand most recently, but also India, Dubai, etc.
A great deal for $59. Jeez…
The SSA calculators are simple-minded compared to one that is able to evaluate the present value of multiple scenarios of life expectancy, choice of retirement age, and discount rate.
This link does not work either.
My first thought concerning one writer disparaging Chris was simply this: You bought all the losing stocks! No point in getting angry about it. Many of Chris Mayer picks are up and substantially. Only because you picked the wrong ones doesn’t warrant airing your dirty laundry for your lack of intuition and then blaming someone else.
Very interesting and well thought out. However, stocks picks are sometimes very hit and miss. while I usually appreciate the logic of the stock choice, it almost never makes me money so i now rarely buy his stock picks.
SageNot: An up-and-coming company working to replace fossil fuel is Razer Technologies RZ. Google them and take a look.
Thanks Savvy Gran, I read “Seeking Alpha” most days & sure ’nuff one of their analysts puts the wood to RZ over too many years of promises with no profits. I was not aware that it is also a Green Company.
http://seekingalpha.com/article/68402-raser-technologies-all-talk-no-profits
I know next to nothing on this subject however I did observe one credible report from one of these companys that revealed a great deal of frustration in the arena of political favor and their urgent need for what he thought was their fair share of financial support and respect as a viable approach to our energy needs.
Only that the price has moved a bit in the week or few since the ad was written, these ads are almost always a little bit stale (have to run everything through the lawyers, Impresume), and the yield changes as the price fluctuates.
Take a look at VCTPF, it has some very interesting technology. Website is : http://www.valcent.net/s/Home.asp
I’ve subscribed to this letter (and it’s predecessor; the name escapes me)for 10 years or so. I’ve found his advice to be excellent.Good stock picks and the reasoning behind them, entry and exit points, and he admits his mistakes. Incredible articles giving me more insight and reference material then I could ever use. $49 a year is a gift. Just get ready for the deluge of solicitations from his publisher, Agora. They’re relentless.
They don’t “Manage” any money.
They are a stock brokerage only.
I’ve subscribed off and on over 4 years at around $59. I never go for the automatic renewal. I get lots of the Agora stock and advisory e-mails so I see all the teasers. I see the words “revolutionary”, “game changer”, best of the decade, the only one you need to buy, and all the other hyperbole, and then sort though it with skepticism. What I like about Chris is he owns up to his bad calls and explains what went wrong. He keeps a running account of the recommended portfolio, of course with the losing sales no longer appearing.… Read More »
so if one wanted to participate in this stock, how does one buy on the foreign exchanges? forgive my ignorance, new investor
Mayer’s “Capital and Crisis” is one of my favorite newsletters. His style is to include a “story” with his concise analysis of a stock. More of a human touch than other letters. I’ve subscribed for more than 4 years and almost every reco that I’ve bought has been profitable. Many that I didn’t buy have also done very well.
Mayer compares very favorably with other newsletters I receive from Casey Research and Stansberry.
Chris does write very well, and does very thorough research. His view of most of his picks tends to be conservative.
He is lacking in money management skills. I watched him ride APL from $45 to $5 before he finally let go of it. He even identified the biggest problem in the company’s financials as a strength, it wasn’t.
I believe he will find some good companies, but DD can not be stressed strongly enough, and if things go wrong be wary of his poor money management.
have to give you a little of my experience at trading. I started with 12,000 and got in the stocks right at the fall of the market. i lost 7,000 before i made the moves i had to to save some of my money. really did alot of studying and put what i had left back in the market in mostly gold mine stocks, i have been making a considerable amount of my loses back rideing two gold mine stocks that i started with at UXG .78 and drooy 3.50, Anns strategy is great and im sure she would have… Read More »
HI I have his book – the detailed method must be effective – but requires much to much time and ability for me. I have Capital and Crisis for several years – currently is up on all but 2 out of 21 in the listing. But I have only one – it is well up. A year or two ago he paniced on some problem with Atlas pipe and sold and recommended sale, so I sold also – shortly later it went back up a LOT – too bad.He is a buy and hold investor, but lately has sold 4… Read More »
Chris is a nice man, a fine speaker, but his stock picks at times leave much to be desired. When APL was recommended, it was sent out as a conservative play. Later he said it was highly leveraged and a mistake. Stock sold for a ridiculous loss. The problem is that Chris rides stocks into the ground, so if you do happen to play the wrong ones, you are screwed. Another disaster was LMC which was sold for a little over a buck and recommended at 9+. I also have special situations, and if you happen to have joined in… Read More »
I subacribe at 2 years, and so, it is excelent.
I have subscribed to C&C for over 7 years. Chris Meyer follows a consistent method for identifying value in long term core portfolio holdings, with particular empasis on “Skin in the game”. Good for buy and hold stocks. They are not supposed to be exciting. It’s a good paper, interesting to read and fair value. Most of the recommendations have done well. For more adventurous picks Chris published Meyer’s Special Situations, which complement the core holdings quite well.
Overall, a very interesting and informative letter. Chris tells his opinions on certain sectors for each issue, even if he’s not going to recommend a stock in that area. He looks for long term values vs short term gains, so many of his theses take a while to bear out. Or the market may change and the thesis gone. Long term, though, his picks frequently accumulate 50-100% gains. Good for value focused investors with patience.