The last time we looked at a teaser from Brad Hoppmann for Cash Flow Kings, it was because they had me in a tizzy about the death of the coffee crop — we depend on teasers and fabulous readers to keep Stock Gumshoe going, but in many ways the true fuel of my manic writing schedule is coffee. So I was worried.
That was only a few months ago, and the stock he pitched (though in no ways a pure play on coffee bean protection) has done decently well (the stock was Syngenta, SYT, it’s up a few percent more than the S&P since mid-December).
And today, instead of making me worry about something I genuflect before, the glorious Coffea arabica, he’s trotting out the shopworn notion that the secrets to investing are hidden in the Bible. Here’s the intro:
“Discovered within the first book of the Holy Bible …
“Genesis Investing
“The power to grow and protect your wealth while serving the greater good of mankind….
“Five years ago I found myself driving down a lifeless country road in the middle of the night. What seemed like my normal commute home from work would soon turn into one of the most important nights of my life.
“That evening I witnessed something that not only altered the course I was on personally, but something that has the potential to affect your life in very real ways, too.
“It was a glowing light that changed everything I thought I knew about the universe, about God, and about man’s work here on earth.
“It revealed to me a great gift — a way to grow wealthy while helping our fellow man in the process.”
So yes, it sounds like the start of a tent revival… and he also goes on to appeal to the socially conscious investors among us…
“And most importantly, it showed me that there ARE ways to invest ethically and responsibly … in essence, that it IS possible to do well while doing good.
“In fact, I now believe it is our moral obligation to use our great gifts to enrich the world around us … and to gladly receive back the rewards for doing so. Hopefully, after you hear my story, you’ll agree.”
Geez, who wouldn’t agree to that? Where do I sign up!
Oh, wait, he’s selling something. OK, we’ll go back to being cynical and suspicious. He’s pitching subscriptions to his Cash Flow Kings newsletter, which, like most “entry level” subscriptions, is not terribly expensive (it’s $49 a year, just like membership in the Stock Gumshoe Irregulars). Pretty much every publisher offers some kind of paid letter in this price range, and those subscribers become their very best prospects for “upgrade” offers to different levels of membership or more expensive letters and services (once you’ve paid $49, you’ve gotten past the biggest hurdle publishers face — “I won’t ever pay anything for research” — and you’re FAR more likely to bite on an offer for the $2,000 letter that really drives publisher profits… particularly if you’re basking in the glow of a few good suggestions made by the inexpensive letter).
But back to the point — Hoppmann is actually teasing a stock or two in this ad that he thinks are exciting investments… so let’s get to that part, and see if we can find out what they are for you,
He furthers this religious (or maybe “close encounters-ish”) idea for several paragraphs, describing how he followed a “glow” in rural Florida …
“I drove as close to it as I could until I hit the end of the road. Against my better judgment, I got out of the car and made my way up a steep hill to get a better look. When I reached the top, a large barbed wire fence prevented me from moving any closer.
“With my face pressed against the cold fence, I stood there for over half an hour without moving. I was enraptured by that light, almost in a state of shock….
“… what I stumbled upon that late summer evening changed my life forever and I believe it will change yours too … whether it be finally eliminating decades of debt, putting your children through college, or living the retirement you deserve.
“All you have to do is let me share with you what I saw in that glow.
“Revealed to me was …
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I don’t know if I can keep up with this much longer, recounting Hoppmann’s Moses-like revelation of these investing “secrets” in the glow of a Florida evening… at least, not with a straight face and a full stomach, so let’s just skip ahead a ways.
Here’s some more…
“I am now convinced that men like Rockefeller were divinely inspired. I am also convinced that one of mankind’s greatest leaps forward — another great gift — is getting underway right now.”
That “leap forward,” of course, has something to do with that “glow” … OK, I have to include a bit more of the Bible stuff here:
“In the Bible, God created the universe from nothing, filling His new realm with light, earth, and the ability for exponential growth. That marked the world’s first and greatest moment of innovation.
“But it’s by this same basic principle of innovation that all of mankind’s later advancements have been made … including modern-day leaps that have made thousands of men wealthier than their wildest dreams.
“I call these moments — whether you’re talking about oil or the personal computer — ‘Genesis Investments.'”
I’m trying to be patient, but this is where I started yelling at my computer a little bit. Just wanted to give you that experience.
So now we move on to the investment he’s actually teasing as a “Genesis Investment” — after he shows us the past “Genesis Investments” that would have made people wealthy with a small initial investment, the two examples are a close match for the returns you would have gotten by buying Microsoft (MSFT) in 1990 and holding for ten years (almost 10,000% gains) and buying Apple in 2007 and holding through today (roughly 700% gains).
Which means, well, I guess Hoppmann is implying that we’ve got the next Bill Gates or Steve Jobs on our hands here, eh? Let’s see what he’s talking about.
We go back to his “glow in the sky” story, though thankfully he puts the religious imagery to bed for a bit…
“What I saw that night was a massive array of small buildings within a complex. Each one was made entirely of glass with beaming rays of light coming from within.
“There were probably fifty or so of these buildings, all identical. But the light was so bright that I couldn’t even begin to see what was inside.
“So over the next week I began intense research on what lay within these glass buildings … and what could be producing this amount of light.
“After using every resource at my disposal, I finally discovered that what I saw was a government-commissioned indoor farming project.
“They were using a new technology — innovative high-intensity LED diodes whose color patterns can be tailored to the specific needs of the plants being grown.”
Ah… so we’re being teased about a LED stock, are we? Not the first time, let’s see if he’s got a name we haven’t looked at before. More clues…
“After seeing the remarkable success this new LED technology had in government test facilities, scientists are now using this same approach with a wide variety of fruits and vegetables.
“The goal of these indoor farms: To grow food at rates never before achieved and irrespective of location or climate.
“In short, this breakthrough may very well end up solving world hunger.
“Just consider what’s happening in Japan, where one of the first indoor vertical food farms is harnessing this technology.
“Spread over 25,000 square feet, the indoor garden’s 17,500 LED lights cover 18 cultivation racks growing heads of lettuce….
“Using this new LED technology, scientists have discovered the light code needed to produce lettuce at an optimal growth rate. This indoor farm can produce lettuce two and a half times faster than a traditional outdoor farm!…
“This approach also cuts water usage to just 1% of what a comparable outdoor field needs, conserving a massive amount of water and allowing crops to be grown in climates usually too dry for regular farming techniques.”
And apparently the secret to “Genesis Investing” is to take an idea and drive it to a far-future possibility, with LED lights helping to stop world hunger…
“I believe indoor vertical farming is the solution to this grave situation. Using this new technology we can build plant factories all over the world, and create enough supply to feed the entire world’s population.
“It will be nothing short of a new Garden of Eden. A great gift from the heavens that will provide the proverbial manna to deserts around the world. Soon all people of the world will live in lands of milk and honey.”
So… the stocks to buy, per Hoppmann?
“And through hundreds of hours of research my team and I have determined the three companies responsible for this coming indoor farming revolution, three companies that are all Genesis Investments.”
Ah, there we go. Clues, please?
“The first stock, which is far and away my favorite, is none other than the company that makes the glowing lights that I saw that fateful evening in the Florida countryside.
“While this company’s products are already being used around the world, very few investors realize how much GROWTH is on the horizon….
“… sales have already been rising 35% a quarter.
“Not to mention that the firm’s projected sales for LED lights are expected to DOUBLE again.
“And quite frankly, its closest competitors aren’t even in the same league.
“No wonder cash is pouring into the company’s coffers to the tune of $90 million a quarter!
“I also like the fact that this particular company manages its finances very conservatively — with almost zero debt on the books.
“And the firm is actively repurchasing its own shares — with more than half a billion dollars committed to that purpose just for this year alone….
“… just a return to the stock’s previous level would already hand you a quick 221% return on every dollar invested.
“Then, as more and more indoor farms spring up and demand for the company’s products skyrockets, you could easily continue earning another 20% a year on your initial investment … doubling your money every four years!”
Well, a company doing (or planning) a half-billion-dollar buyback means it’s a biiiig company — this isn’t one of the LED upstarts that get bandied about from time to time, nor even an up-and-coming tech firm trying to design a better LED. They don’t have that kind of cash flow. That pretty much narrows it down to mid-caps and large-caps like Cree (CREE) and Philips (PHG), with outside possibilities of other lighting firms like Hubbell (HUB.B) or Acuity (AYI), and a buyback that size would be a stretch for most of them aside from PHG.
Philips is in the process of trying to sell its lighting division, probably to private equity firms, so that’s a tough one to pick for LED lighting at the moment (and it’s selling this division because the margins are too low due to Chinese competition… a warning sign for the rest of the sector, perhaps).
So we’ll be forced to guess this time — the half-billion buyback number is larger than CREE or HUB has authorized (though CREE has enough cash to do that if they ever want to) and is a pretty likely number for PHG, they have in place an authorization for 1.5 billion Euros in buybacks over three years that is probably less than half completed… but if you want a stock that would have to gain 221% to reach its old highs, CREE is the only choice of the group because of its dot-com peak at close to 3X today’s price. Philips is at about half of it’s all-time highs, so it could be them if the copywriter is mixing up percentages (as many people do) and thinking that a stock doubling is a “200% return.” And though their lighting divisions, or parts of them, might be growing revenues (sales) at “35% a quarter” in some cases, none of them are really growing revenues even at double-digit rates on a sustained basis when it comes to the whole company (and yes, when you buy a stock you have to buy part of the whole company, you don’t get to pick your favorite part of the business).
Which means we can’t be definitive, not with those squishy clues, but I’d guess we’re being pitched Cree (CREE) even though the description of the business, leadership of the sector, buyback size and agricultural research and prospects is a better match for Philips (PHG) and their soon-to-be-sold lighting business. If you’ve a better match, feel free to throw it on the pile… but whatever you do, don’t buy PHG for long-term exposure to the LED business — it’ll be out of their hands pretty soon.
There are two more from Hoppmann that I’ll get answers to for you shortly if I can, but that’s all we’ve got for now — an unsatisfying “kinda” match, and an opportunity for you to discuss LED lighting, the future of farming, and, perhaps, Philips or Cree or whether either of them is going to create “something out of nothing” in following the innovation roadmap of the Book of Genesis.
Oh, and yes — even LED lighting consumes a lot of energy indoors, along with all the other complications of mass indoor farming… as more than one agronomist will tell you, “You have to replace the sun, which is free. It is a very hard competition.” Let us know what you think with a comment below, and we’ll finish up our look at this “future of farming” and “Genesis Investing” teaser pitch soon…
P.S. LED lighting is a pretty clear “future is now” idea… but that was also true five years ago, when LED lighting was all over CNBC as the next tech revolution, and was being pitched right and left by newsletters and pundits. Since then, the two biggest companies in the space that get much attention, PHG and CREE, are worth less than they were five years ago (the S&P 500 is up about 90% for that same time period). Be careful in how confidently you predict future “obvious” trends in society or technology, and especially in how you extrapolate that into future stock performance.
I have a small farm in west Texas with a saltwater disposal well on it that provides me with
over $100,000 each year to plow back into my small farm. I have been researching, now building steel frame geodesic and quonset buildings covered with elastomeric concrete
to withstand earthquakes, tornadoes, wildfire, and limited wars of man to be able to
raise food for people year around in protected conditions. Square foot gardening, aquaponics, hydroponics….all these farming technologies dovetail in a self sustaining
operation that produces its own electricity, its own water, and its own food.
I’m retired after 45 years in the oil and gas industry and am concerned about the number of old retirees like me who are rapidly running out of money and resources
with their failing health….yet there seems to be no remedy in sight.
Such indoor farms could partially provide a remedy for the plight of older US citizens.
But, whatever is done MUST be done by the private sector….absolutely no government
involvement. I am a Vietnam veteran and I suffer from Lymphatic Filariasis I contracted
in SEA in 1970….It took 40 years for the microscopic worms to take me down, but when I became incapable of walking and went to the VA….they turned me down for medical
benefits. So, after paying into SS for 45 years, they didn’t turn me down. So, I’m retired and worthless on SS at 66 years old.
I wonder how many other seniors are facing retirement with nothing…..and I want to find a way to help them. Nobody cared about us Vietnam vets when we came home….and nobody seems to care about our elderly now.
In short, Genesis Investing to me is this process of building our national base of food production in protected farms AND providing shelter and meaningful activities to our
elderly. We are investing and reinvesting in ourselves, then.
ol’ Lawrence
Seems chillingly like “Soylent Green”.
“Soylent Green is PEOPLE!” – Charlton Heston 🙂
Are they in cahoots with Monsantyo. If so I wouldn’t touch it with a 20 ft pole
Best of luck to you Lawrence. You sound like a smart and hard working dude.
Lawrence;people care brother.peace
What in the world is a saltwater disposal well? And how does it pay you $100,000 per year?
Used for disposing of water from oil wells — saltwater disposal wells are the major high-margin assets of one of the stocks we wrote about last week, as coincidence would have it: http://www.stockgumshoe.com/reviews/high-yield-energy-report/the-play-that-will-beat-buffett-plus-some-updates/
Ive seen some great things being done in New York and other places where they raise fish, fish feed the soil, soil feeds the veggies which are then distributed. If West Texas is warm from Nov to March I could pitch a tent and come help.
Have you googled Polyface Farms, The Salatins. That’s farming!
Info on Canadian Company sold: Re genetically altered apple.
US company Intrexon has just bought the Canadian company Okanagan Specialty Fruits (Okanagan Valley where I live) which developed the genetically modified (GM, also called genetically engineered) “non-browning” apple. The acquisition was announced on February 27. Intrexon is a synthetic biology company which says it is “committed to building ‘A Better World Through Better DNA’”. Intrexon bought the company AquaBounty in 2012 such that it also owns the GM salmon developed by that company. Intrexon also owns two European patents (EP 1456346 and EP 1572862) on chimpanzees genetically engineered with DNA from insects, for pharmaceutical research purposes.
On February 13, the US government approved plantings of the genetically modified “non-browning” apple. It is not yet approved in Canada. ( Hopefully will never be or say bye bye to the option of an organically grown apple) The genetically modified (GM) “non-browning” apple does not brown when you slice it, for 15 days or more. The company says the GM apples “have more eye appeal: no yucky browning”.
69% of Canadians don’t want the GM apple approved.
Loved the Polyface folks, they brought some fantastic chickens to our farmers market when we lived in DC. Great permaculture ideas.
Good for the Canadians! Americans won’t have a clue with the boob tube and/or being glued to their cell phones on un-social media. (BTW GMOs were banned by the EU -across Europe – their main concern not enough research as what they will do to the human gut).
In her song Big Yellow Taxi, Joni sings,
Hey farmer farmer
Put away that DDT now
Give me spots on my apples
But leave me the birds and the bees
Please!
Well, the song needs updated to Put away that GMO seeds now! And Monsato’s Roundup has killed off 70% of the honey bees! Those who don’t believe it just ask any bee keeper that produces honey.
Anyway, if the US Gov approves something – pretty much means it’s bad for us the people. Let’s face it, call it Gov-Corp or Corp-Gov they are now one and the same.
Thanks for the info, Paul. Everyone knows Americans are stoopid, and don’t have a clue… all 330 million….even though they continually, for the last 200 + years, are on the cutting edge of all types of experimentation, invention and innovation. And I wasn’t aware that t.v. and cell phones haven’t reached Canada yet. How about meaningful and useful contribution instead of nation knocking, and painting a whole country and people with the same ” clueless ” brush, which is certainly an obvious fallacy ?
Try ivermectin for parasites, it kills all invertebrates is very low in toxicity, cheap, and it always works.
As to indoor farming, the main high valuable crop that comes to mind is marijuana. I have heard of indoor pharming of GMO crops that are processed into various pharmaceuticals, nutraceuticals, etc. that would have the potential to adversely affect the environment, the health of people or profits if accidentally released outside of the protected indoor growing area.
Oh no! Some types of mushrooms whose extracts are used in treating cancerous tumors
sell for $4000/ounce. Ginseng can be growth stimulated and grown to the equivalent size of 15 year old plants in the wild, in a protected garden environment in one year’s time.
And with the rising costs of fresh vegetables to supply restaurants buffet tables and
house salads…..they pay premium prices for greenhouse tomatoes, lettuce, carrots, bell peppers, onions, beets, etc…..and pass it on to those who can afford their haut cuisine
at $100 per plate. Such exclusive east and west coast restaurants will SEND A REFRIGERATED truck to your farm to pick up your farm products grown to their specifications.
There’s no reason why small family run indoor farms can’t support an entire family
with income to make their style of living next to no one else.
THAT’S Growth Investing to me.
ol’ Lawrence
What can the mighty Gumshoe tell us about Kent Moors new tiny $1.00 energy stock?
Yeah, and while you’re at it, check out OOIL’s produced saltwater treatment technology….
currently selling for 9 cents/share.
it’s lithium
Lawrence you need a good lawyer. No Vet should be denied benefits with your affliction. Congratulations on your fortitude and your hydroponic farming.
I’m sure you’ve discovered Tek Supply in Massachusetts. They have capitalized on the agribusiness. Not only do they provide inexpensive buildings or varying size and style they provide the items for interior farming as well as some of the expertise.
Lawrence your in my prayers—you need a fairer treatment for your dedicated and appreciated military service.
Why….thank you, Bigfoot! The abandoned farms all around me here in west Texas have been bought up by Mennonites who are turning them into profitable enterprises again….BUT, they are raising cotton, alfalfa, sudan hay with center pivot sprinkler irrigation
and expensive new irrigation wells that are pulling 2000 gallons per minute from the drinking water aquifer.
Their operations are not sustainable after an EMP strike or other collapse of the electric grid and there is NO FOOD crop for humans being raised within 500 miles of here….yet there are lots of us old retirees out here. I’d like to provide a big family home (a steel framed geodesic dome 60 feet in diameter) on 10 acres with its own water well,
its own 16000 watt solar panel farm, and enough concrete covered, buried and bermed around protected gardening area for an entire family to live there year around, care for their elderly members, and PASS THE FARM DOWN generation to generation, for a total cost of $100-$150,000. THAT’s what I call Genesis Investing. A family farm that’s self sustaining and PAID FOR!
ol’ Lawrence
Yeah, Bigfoot, I routinely order supplies from FarmTek catalog and have one of their
FodderPro System II set ups. My own designs are outgrowths of that FodderPro System
I bought from them and the aquaponics system I built is based on a design from a professor at ENMU in Santa Fe. I keep innovating, trying to make sure that when I die, my wife (who is 20 years younger than me) will have multiple streams of income and a self sustaining farm home. The Good Lord knows me, that it’s not in the possessing of these things that I revel, but in the BUILDING of the systems……I’m a construction guy.
That’s what I have always loved….building.
ol’ Lawrence
LED lights are not great for indoor agriculture. In Washington state, legal marijuana grows who use LED lights do not get the same quality of crop as those growers using HPS (high pressure sodium).
The up and coming lighting technology is Induction lighting all the benefits of LED low heat, ability to customize light frequency, long life span ( up to double LED ) and light intensity able to compete with HPS , invented by the genius Tesla …
There appears to be a problem with both High Pressure Sodium and Induction Lighting which is the same problem afflicting Fluorescent Lighting, the use of Mercury within the bulb. I’m relying on Wikipedia for my hurried research, thankfully I’m no longer a student I get to do that and I’m cool with being refuted by anyone with enough interest in the subject to have other information. In the case of Induction Lighting Wikipedia states “the mercury is in a solid form and can be easily recovered if the lamp is broken or for recycling at the end of life. {citation needed}”. In other words the preceding is a mere assertion on Wikipedia’s part. Maybe we’ll have to live with a lower quality high or continue to rely on illegal sources to meet part of the demand (bummer, Man).
Lawrence: first of all, Thank you for your service!!! I strongly suggest that you either contact your local VA and have this checked out again, or if you’ve exhausted this avenue, then contact a good attorney that deals with the VA. see the (appeals 101 briefing) located on the VA.Gov site. you certainly deserve more than you have received thus far. in searching the VA site, I found Lymphatic disorders listed code 6305 in section 4.88b
I hope this helps!
The biotech index, $NBI gapped up today, and my biotech portfolio bounced up by a bit over $12K today — no complaints — except for the brutal snowstorm, around 6 inches, so far (but hopefully almost over).
Yesterday I disdained investing in the Summit Therapy ADS, and happily so.
Lawrence,
Sorry to hear about your issues with the VA. I agree with Gerald and if it has been a long time since you first applied for benefits it might be worth your time to try again. I retired on 1 July 14 and just went through the process with the VA. I attached a link below where you can set up an account if you haven’t already. I used an advocate (Veterans of Foreign Wars) to forward my packet which I was assisted in putting together by “Still Serving Veterans”. Anyway you probably could also get assistance from the Texas Branch of Veterans Affairs. Hang in there brother.
https://www.ebenefits.va.gov/ebenefits/homepage
http://www.stillserving
http://www.vfw.org/
V/R
Tom
Lawrence try the Disabled American Veterans organization a free service for veterans that will help you get your claim. They are very knowable and a helpful organization for veterans.
Have nothing much to add here except, it is really nice coming to an on-line forum where people even with differing opinions are civil, and kind to one another.
It’s also reassuring there are some nice people who just, really care.
Thanks for a nice place with nice people.
Yes but what will this stock do for whirled peas?
Lawrence—
So sorry about your situation with the VA.
Since you are a Vietman Vet perhaps the best resourse would be the VVA
Vietnam Veterans of America
Try this web site— It lists all the Texas VVA chapters ( copy and Paste)
http://www.vvaft.org/TSC_TXChapters.html
Travis, it seems you didn’t want to write this article but considering all the heart warming and informative comments aren’t you glad you did?
I saw a very cool gesture the other day on a different GS thread where a fellow Gumshoe Irregular simply gave a yearly subscription to an unknown person based on a great posting. I would like to do the same thing and give Ol’ Lawrence a year subscription.
As a Vet from 2 wars, I was lucky enough to have the country rally behind us (troops) from the onset of Desert Storm through today’s Global War on Terrorism. Vietnam Vets had it tougher on many fronts.
Ol’ Lawrence: Don’t worry, this is not charity as I am sure you are doing well. This is a mere but sincere thank you for your service. Do seriously consider returning to the VA though.
Travis: Could you please make this happen.
Sogiam / Ben: Thanks for the ideal!
I’ve been doing alright, thanks to the Lord Jesus the Christ and His answering my prayer for my wife….to provide a way to take care of her even if I died of Lymphatic Filariasis. That’s how that saltwater disposal well came to be on our property with the 5% of gross revenues monthly income…..the Lord answered me for my wife.
I’ve never asked Him for anything for me, but He has provided for me and my wife abundantly…..more than I could ever have imagined.
I would like to build steel frame geodesic dome home kits, find cheap land in the area
($300/acre) and build housing for poor veterans and their families to live decently.
There are 480 Vietnam era veterans here in Reeves county, Texas and most of them are below the poverty line. But, I would do this with the Lord’s help for ANYONE. A young friend of mine who has a wife and 5 children under the age of 11 got burned out 1/2/14…..lost everything they owned. I promised his youngest daughter that her Dad and I would build her a new house……and we are, as quickly as we can put together the materials and get the construction done.
I’m looking for start up companies like OOIL with technology that can make the environment better while growing and supplying investment income.
Bless you all, and may your penny stock investments all turn to gold for you.
ol’ Lawrence
Lawrence please accept Frenchy’s offer and visit us on the current biotechnology thread. There are totally amazing, timely events taking place in the near term that may catapult your portfolio significantly. I too am a veteran and know how unappreciated the Vietnam Vets were treated in the past. We can not change the past but can dang sure give it our all to change the present and the future for the better. Thank you and Frenchy for your service to this great nation, Be eternally blessed-Benjamin
What is your technology thread?
These type of constantly brightly lit buildings are causing the death and eradication of bats and moths in enormous numbers! This will result in terrible problems for ‘regular” farmers! Do they not have to do any sort of environmental impact study?
Let’s get it straight. Genesis Investing is about ANY small idea that has HUGE potential, get in early hold for years and make big money. On the other hand indoor farming is usually highly novel but NOT scalable and many other problems so it easily goes BUST even after initial success! Many a genius inventor has been humbled by attempts to fully mechanize farming. The expensive failures go back many years. Government makes everything it does look successful because a profit is not required, in fact only spending is required, don’ Let them fool you!
CREE use of 5G LED now used w/ electric vehicles, Radio Frequency, military, space exploration etc. https://realmoney.thestreet.com/investing/technology/cree-s-ceo-on-firms-big-5g-and-electric-car-opportunities-15184166