ChangeWave Investing

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Sparky
Sparky
February 28, 2009 11:24 am

Tobin Smith is of course one of the better known touts/analysts/pundits, (regular appearances on Fox) and is genial though bombastic in his videos which are available on the site or through a free email letter. Change Wave Investing is a mid priced newsletter that expands on the content of the above mentioned free service. I subscribed orginally in the Spring of 2007 and did not renew as his picks were so bad as to pretty much fall in the category of “buy puts on these and you will become very rich.” This was not true for every pick–he had a few winners but these were generally the most obvious picks that everyone had, like Apple.

His mistakes were far more numerous, and often characterized by an attempt to captitalize on global macro economic trends that haven’t panned out, at least not yet, though in fairness they may eventually. So I bought Puda Coal (clean coal in China!) at something like $1.89, currently .19, Lighting Science Group (Green Energy, LED’s!)bought at 8.60, current value something like .65, Basin Water (water is the new oil! or some such hype, this company turned out to have fraudulent management, bought at 12.70 current price about .70, and the list goes on. One of his huge miscalculations was recommending some “high yield” commercial real estate plays in the fall of 2007 that he thought would be insulated from the sub-prime contagion (he thought it would only apply to companies with residential exposure). Municipal Mortgage and Equity which I bought at $19.50 on his recommendation, current price 22 cents. On this one he kept recommending hold to see what would happen (they also had legal issues, failing to submit 10-k’s I think, and were delisted to the pink sheets) up until I didn’t renew his service. So you see he has a knack for picking absolute disasters.

Yes, stocks are down across the board, but many of his picks, especially the ones I bought, I guess, have a habit of losing over 90% of their value. And other prognosticators, such as Nouriel Roubini and Harry S. Dent (who of course aren’t stock analysts) accurately predicted the disaster we’re now in the middle of–if only I had listened to them! I believe Toby did recommend s short fund in the spring of 2008, but then decided the market was coming back over the summer and recommended getting back on the long side–wrong again.

And as I remember, he frequently made the common mistake of recommending stocks after their initial run ups, often at what turned out to be the top. So all in all, his service was a huge disappointment for me–he does earn 4 stars for consistency, consistently wrong. And to close on the plus side the Change Wave survey can be a valuable tool.

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elliotl
elliotl
March 24, 2009 11:04 am

A news letter that conceptually sounds great but in practice produces losses of magnificent proportions. It might be a bible for short sellers – The most amazing thing was the documented recommended buy price and current price which illustrated the magnitude and frequency of loss.

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JPA
Guest
JPA
July 15, 2009 1:13 pm

Change Wave Investing is a lot of talk but very little results. They often speak of their Alliance members, supposed gurus who have all the answers in every field..bull. I dropped it, then tried it again and dropped it for the last time a while ago. Not worth the money and overly expensive to begin with.

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honolululou
Guest
honolululou
July 15, 2009 7:00 pm

got killed by investing in his picks of neom.ob and mobl.ob. they did actually go up which made you buy more and the premise sounded good for both but when Tobin put the word out to sell the stocks crashed so fast you couldnt dump them in time so I think a lot of us got stuck! seems to happen to a lot of his other speculations as well. they seem to go up strictly based on the volume of his subscribers which I guess is ok as long as you have an exit strategy. staying away now! aloha!

Donald Crocket
Member
July 20, 2009 12:27 pm

Tobin Smith Isthe absolute worst in the industry from one who foolisly followed him for several years

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John
Guest
John
November 30, 2009 8:44 pm

An absolute buffoon and blowhard from Fox Business (Bulls and Bears). The newsletter is useless unless you use it to make contrarian picks. It is hard to believe someone can be this bad. Just stay away.

David O'Shea
Guest
David O'Shea
May 3, 2010 3:55 pm

I didn’t get much out of it. I like Tobin because he is really funny and quick when it comes to his wrap. I love him on TV and would like to have a drink with him.

But for making money in the market I would suggest TycoonU.com because they guide you AND educate you. I only say that because I tried Tobin and Tycoon U at the same time.

Still Cleaning Up The Mess
Guest
Still Cleaning Up The Mess
October 30, 2010 12:18 pm

Wish I would have known about this web site before subscibing to ChangeWave Investing! Sure changed my ‘wave’ alright! I’m down about $80,000 + off of Tobin’s picks! STAY AWAY!

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phoebeandattila
Guest
phoebeandattila
September 12, 2011 7:22 am

I began reading Changewave when it first came out at the end of the last millennium/beginning of this one and enjoyed the way Smith explained and justified his picks. He was a big drum beater for the internet paradigm shift and just kept tossing out recommendations for widget makers, network operators and online retailers.
I saved some of his earliest newsletters, they make hilarious reading. Many of his recommendations went bankrupt, and most of them lost heaps of money for investors. In fact, I can’t remember any winners at all.
I’m glad I chose to pay off my mortgage (in Northern Italy) rather than invest in his picks. They were hopeless.

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Wade
Guest
Wade
October 18, 2011 7:32 am

Every stock Toby had given me in a rush to get into was at the top and only went down. He was already in and just waited for the right exit point. I will never take him as anything more than a peddler of broken stocks on Bull’s and Bear’s if he still has a job there. I’m not attacking FOX because they played no part in this. It was me and Changewave

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flyfisher
Irregular
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