Author/Editor
Brett Owens
Publisher
Contrarian Outlook
Description
Stock investing newsletter that tries to help show you “how to take advantage of market misperceptions.” Income/yield focused, replaces what had been called Contrarian Advantage.
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Rating: 4.0/5. From 198 votes.
4.0
Rating from 928 votes
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Brett knows his stuff, and has made some great recommendations, and I’ve profitted from them. However, he (or his editors) annoying try to hawk other, extra-cost services with every write-up they do. They either need to cut it out, or bundle those useful services with the basic “contrarianoutlook” service, for a reasonable fee.
I began using Brett’s advice for my Roth IRA in January 2016. My wife and I each contributed $500 per month to our respective IRA’s. I invested hers in 80% stock mutual fund and 20% in fixed income mutual fund (both No load thru Fidelity). I bought Brad’s monthly recommendations or best buys, always at or below his recommended “buy up to” price. My IRA is up 8.97% and my wife’s IRA is up 21.79%. And that doesn’t even subtract the money I paid for 2 years for his subscription. Absolutely not worth the money. I will not be renewing. Buy a good mutual fund and forget the so called experts selling their subscription service.
I have no connection with this newsletter, but I would note that the S&P 500 is up about 40% since January 2016. Your decision to put your IRA money in mostly stock mutual funds was fortuitous.
Not all that surprising as this is not a growth newsletter- the stated goal is 8% income for retirees and ppl living off dividends.
Brett really provides background on his picks. The most recent issues have compiled and ranked the best places to put new money now, as well as buy-up-to prices for each portfolio position and the resultant buy/hold status.
The newsletter got me to look at the closed-end fund segment which is a main component of the recommendations, and some REITs. On closed-end funds, much data and a free screener is available at cefconnect.com.
A sister letter ran buy Brett’s associate Michael Foster, is touted as providing you with a reliable screener to support your choices along with the newsletter I haven’t subscribed to. They have suggested looking at cefconnect.com as well but with the caveat that they say it also contains some inaccurate data.
Overall, since I subscribed to Contrarian Income, I have recommended it to several others. I have made excellent returns on the closed-end funds.
One of the REIT portfolio pics is well supported by his commentary, but over the last few months has demonstrated his big “no-no” that is an increasing dividend accompanied by price movement that significantly outweighs the dividends in that time. That could be due to a widely referenced short-side commentator’s tout, but that points out what may be a deficiency – there is no “sell-under” – you must sell on your own, or wait for one to come in the newsletter. Past sells are also maintained in the separate portfolio “sold” section.
One thing that may be useful to back up a choice is something I found from another site that references ownership. On Fidelity.com, if you type in the symbol, for a closed-end-fund for example, then look for “Ownership”, and check for insider ownership, which is something the newsletters spout out about, but additionally, you can see the change in institutional ownership from the most recent quarterly reporting required by the SEC, as compared with the previous quarter. You must wait 45 days after the end of a quarter before all the data is required to be in, but a significant increase in ownership seems to make for more wins.
Consistently good analysis and advice.
I enjoy the practical and incise recommendations. Also doesn’t promise pie in the sky returns.
Brett Owens is a true “diamond in the rough” – may just be the biggest bang for the buck in the newsletter industry at his $39 12-month trial offer. He thinks along the same lines as Dr. Eifrig (Stansberry Income Intelligence), who is one of the brightest minds in the “income generation sector” of portfolio allocation. Brett understands the science of dividend growth investing and his strategy for each of his selections is extremely well thought out and articulated. Anyone wanting to add some bunch to their dividend generating portfolio would be well served by Brett’s Contrarian Income Report!
Sensible advice, easy to understand and consistently beats the averages. Strongly recommend for growth and income investors.
I’ve recently joined mrtoptick at https://mrtoptick.com/gold-membership/ and I was wondering if anyone else used their newsletter? Thanks
Changed my retirement!
Simple but Terrific…..Viva Contrarian Outlook!!
My results have been terrible
I have lost some serious money on some really dog recommendations
Ex, Clns ,, RA and OHI , BXMT
He just keeps saying be patient , yes you get a good dividend but your
Invested cash goes down
Do your due diligence
I know exactly what your talking about. I’m buried in MIC,CLNS. But have losses as well in the symbols you indicated. Horrible newsletter. My comment hopefully is now posted. Yeah, I’ve lost thousands of dollars and today is Mar 4 2018. I subscribed in Dec 2017. Huge losses in only a few months.
I’m not a subscriber, but I think you should understand that his advice is an income strategy; not a growth strategy. If you put $10,000 in OHI and get your $1,0000 a year, year after year, then it doesn’t matter if your book value goes up or down; you’re getting the income you desire. Any sound advice is going to include holding onto stocks for several years — not a few months.
For an income strategy, you don’t judge it by how the value of your stocks are doing. You judge it by whether or not the stocks continue to pay their dividend without suspending it or decreasing it.
I don’t understand how BXMT is a “dog”. It’s been paying 0.62 per share since 2015. If you bought anywhere at or about $30 in 2017, you’re looking at roughly $8200 in dividends per $100K invested (which is the advertised ” passive $40K income on $500K investment”) PLUS the price is at now $35 which is something like 16.5% return on share price. I’m confused.
The post listed EX, that was a mistake
I was posting examples not EX
The worst newsletter ever in my view. I joined Dec 2017. MIC stocked was highly recommended. It was about $65 around that time. It’s only Mar 18, it’s a $38-39 stock
He liked CLNS about that time too, I bought in about $12., now it’s about $5.50. He issued an alert in his mar 2 2018 letter to sell after the huge downturn. On that advice, I’m probably going to buy more! I did not sell. If you wish to subscribe and take HUGE losses in a 3 month or so span, go ahead. The $100 subscription has cost me thousands of dollars! I asked for a refund and did not get it. Stay away, run away.
I agree, at first I thought he was great. well educated Cornell, and conservative. However I am down over 100,000 because of MIC and CLNS. In fact almost all of his advice is losing money. hidden yields is also losing money. I am going to keep CLNS and MIC and OHI because I cant afford to sell. the dividend’s have been cut in CLNs and he waited to long to cut the looses.
The only one making money is the subscription service. Bought CLNS when it was around $14, but sold it when it was trekking around $10-11. I told myself that something is wrong with this stock based on the price action and I was right.
Those wanting to invest in closed end funds would do best to go to the website cefa.com. There is no fee! You get better insight and do your own due diligence.
Contrian Outlook in there portfolio from Dec 2017 – Feb 2018, recommended both MIC and CLNS
Both losing 40-60% of their value
With losses like that, run fast from there website. I have lost thousand and thousands of dollars. I would not be surprised if some comments here come from those that profit from the newsletter. Of course, I do not know that for sure. If your losing 40-60% of your principal, getting 8% income. Do your own math Cefa.com check the website out
Thanks for telling us about MIC and CLNS. Time to back up the truck and load up on oversold quality funds, if you ask me.
I subscribed for a year and chose not to renew. Smarmy gloss overs don’t equate with in-the depth analysis that can be found on other sites, sometimes for free, such as Seeking Alpha. Owens pushes the same basket of stocks and funds, many of which have done poorly this past year, and rarely if ever adjusts his “Portfolio.” He ignores many other better choices. I would recommend anyone considering Brett Owen’s recommendations to look further before deciding to follow his advice.
Damn shame — wanted to view material promised but couldn’t find instructions to download — cust svc no help — cancelled same day
Just ran across this guy’s website which was completely misleading. “In a moment, I’m going to show you how to earn a passive $40,000 on a half-million… $80,000 on a million… and $100,000+ annually on anything higher. Plus, you won’t even have to tap your initial capital or “draw down” any of your valuable principal. I’ll even give you the specifics on stock names and tickers to buy. But first, a bit about myself.” In a moment…in a moment…in a moment…
Well I finally got the to end of the page and guess what!? He NEVER gave specific stock names/tickers to buy. What a load of B.S.! That’s no way to earn a new member, my friend. Thanks for wasting my time.
Subscriber for 18 months and stuck with it too long. The basket is too big for most investors (19 funds in the portfolio) and some have been horrible, down 50% or more. Even what were supposed to be conservative bond funds are tanking, while rates NOT rising, so the credit quality of the holdings is extremely poor and NAV tanking along with price. Look at charts of recent picks in 2018… EFT, FRA, JPS, MSD… you are trading a large loss in principal for taxable dividends, not a winner
It is ok, some big misses, but winners too. But overall I have lost money with them as st O k price regressive offset dividends
Anyone know about the “Dividend Conversion Machines” Brett Owen is hyping right now?
I am a subscriber – I am not a heavy hitter, just someone with a few hundred thousand hoping to retire early on real estate and stocks as I slowly deposit my money into various assets over time.
The standard stragegy tells people to invest into index funds against a certain ratio of fixed income (i.e. bond) securities, and to withdraw 4% a year (or less, depending on how conservative you are).
Enter the contrarian stragey as set forth by Mr. Owens. This strategy involves picking high yield CEFs, REITs, and other funds. It is not supposed to be a “no loss” strategy, it is a “no withdraw” strategy – meaning you never have to sell stocks. It is advertised as a strategy for people who want to not touch principal, and want to live off of dividends. The value of the securities and CEFs he picks will fluctuate, and you’re never supposed to withdraw the principal (unless a stock is about to do really bad). The newsletter began in 2015. Through the end of 2018 he had given buy signals for 27 stocks, and closed eight trades. Four of those closed trades have lost money. Some lost big money, notably GEO, (which lost 33% in a month after he picked it), CLNS (which lost 70% in less than a year when he picked it). He’s still holding on with MIC, which took a big hit after his buy signal.
I’ve decided to backtest some of this stuff from his old newsletters.
SCENARIO 1 – PERIODIC INVESTING
If you would have bought $5000 worth of each security he recommended, and sold as recommended over the last three years (since he started the service on 8/15/15) and did not reinvest the dividends you’d have invested a total of $96,197.16, you’d have a total current portfolio value of $94,816.58, and you would throwing off dividends of $7,520.84. The value would have been more like 98k with dividends reinvested.
If you had instead invested 5k directly into the SP500 each time he made a call (and never sold) you would have invested $135,000, and you would have $156749.37 right now without reinvesting dividends. So from that logic, you would have been wiser to get in to VOO if you’re a periodic investor.
SCENARIO 2 – LUMP SUM INVESTED IN 2016
Let’s say you have a million bucks in your retirement account. Each January he has made “new money” recommendations. In January of 2016 you would have bought 8 assets (I will not publish them here). If you followed all of his recommendations, your share prices would be worth $1,065,279.57, and you would have made around 7-8% dividends over that time period, or about 75k per year. Such a portfolio today would pay $69,183.58 in dividends.
Now take the SP 500.
On 1/1/16 the SP was at 1,904.42, and now it is at 2599. Now let’s assume you drew down at .05% per quarter (and also withdrew dividends) you’d be left with $1268663.23, but you’d only getting about 40k per year. This is what most retirees are told to do.
Assume you need to withdraw 7% from your portfolio (2% dividends, and 1.5% per quarter), you’d end up with similar income to the contraian strategy, but something like $1158549.61 in the end. So in 2016 the SP 500 wins, by nearly a hundred thousand dollars.
SCENARIO 3 – LUMP SUM INVESTED IN 2018
But the marjority of that time was during a bull market. So let’s take his recommendations on January of 2018, when we saw more volitility.
In January of 2018 has you buying 19 assets. This includes the bad CNLS and MIC picks that a lot of people here are talking about, including buying MIC a few months before it cut its dividend and the price fell off a cliff. Whenever he gave a sell signal, if he noted several replacement assets to purchase, I randomly picked one.
Following this strategy, if you had invested a million dollars as he directed in 2018 and followed all of his instructions including selling and replacing the bad picks with a random new money pick, right now your account would be worth $894,897.28. It would be paying out about 70k as well. Compare that with the SP 500, having invested 1 mil on 1/1/18, with similar drawdown (70k), and the fund would be worth $961,468.74.
CONCLUSION
I really wanted to believe in this strategy. I’ve already put 20k into it (which is a lot of money for me). I am a contrarian at heart – I love going against the grain. I would hope that Mr. Owens or someone else can get in here and tell me why I am wrong. But the reality is that I don’t see this strategy beating the market. In my opinion, this newsletter does not do any better than the standard advice of buying a stock index fund, based on age and risk tolerance.
Thanks for the unusually detailed and thoughtful review, much appreciated!
I just vetted it for my own purposes, it would be silly to let it go to waste.
Your backtest would be more relevant if he had said that his strategy was to beat the SP 500. Instead you say his strategy is pitched as a “no withdraw” strategy , so shouldn’t you test for things like a reduced dividend or one that risks being reduced (ie increased coverage ratio)? .
Thank you for your explanation. I forwarded this thread to Mr. Owen’s web address and asked him to comment.
I wrote and asked Contrarian Income Report to address the comments by Billo Jenkins. In his email response Jonathan Buttrill wrote, “Thanks for writing in. We’re not going to dive into the comment section on Stock Gumshoe as that won’t be all that productive to get into online debates with strangers. I also can’t reconcile his numbers, but happy to share ours with you:“ He added a table of data reflecting the portfolio. Jonathan adds this after the table: “So, since inception, the portfolio has produced 7.5% average annualized gains with dividend reinvested and 6.7% average annualized gains with dividends taken as cash.”