Everyone was talking up “Quitaly” last week as we headed into the December 4 referendum — and this was one where the “populist” choice was clearly ahead in the polls, and the polls were actually accurate (unlike the surprise wins by the “Brexit” camp and by Donald Trump earlier this year).
That “everyone” includes the Crisis Investing folks over at Casey Research (now owned by Stansberry, though Doug Casey is still participating), and we saw several iterations of an ad from Nick Giambruno about how to profit from the “total destruction of the European Union” that will come as the Italian vote bumps that body further down the road toward dissolution.
So far, the widely expected win for the populists (the “No” vote) is not showing any signs of causing a real panic among investors in either Europe or the US, though it’s very early days — and, to be fair, the ad didn’t promise that today would bring a crash (though there was a strong hint that a 10% drop in the markets was a strong possibility). That should probably come as no surprise — when everyone expects something, markets are also expecting it… it’s only when we’re surprised that the market reacts and, usually, overreacts. The market, after all, is really just another way to measure human sentiment.
But certainly the world is changing, particularly when it comes to global and regional trade agreements and currencies and alliances, and the human mind wants to create patterns that build into stories that create a logical arc in which all of these events fit… so what’s the story that Nick Giambruno is telling, and how does he think we can become rich from it?
Well, here’s a little bit from the ad to give you a taste:
“Whatever you call it, the shockwaves from Italy’s exit from the EU will almost certainly affect your savings account, your stock portfolio, and your cash stash.
“Social Security, 401(k)s, pension funds, and even your gold – it’s ALL in play.
“Please don’t think that you can ignore this just because you live far away from Europe. For unprepared investors and retirees across America, this economic crisis could turn into a disaster of epic proportions.
“It’s why – in the Casey Daily Dispatch and The Casey Report – we’ve shown you how to own gold, to hold cash, where to hide it, and which banks to avoid.
“Today, these defensive measures will serve you well. They will place you in a position of ‘neutrality’ – perfectly equipped to take advantage of the situation I’m about to describe.
“And if you take action right now – strategically positioned in one specific way – this historic crisis could be the profit opportunity of a lifetime.”
The letter leans heavily on Doug Casey’s experience as a “crisis investor” and profiteer — talking about the big gains he made during crises in past decades. And they believe that yesterday’s vote “will set off the big economic crisis of this decade” and maybe “the biggest economic disaster of this century.”
Which would be saying something, since just in US-dominated terms we’ve had the dot-com crash and the real estate crash and 2008 financial meltdown already this century, only 16 years in, and that doesn’t even include the several eurozone crises we’ve seen. Here’s how he describes the possibilities:
“This nearly inevitable event that starts on December 4 could:
* Gut the U.S. stock market in the short term, producing a swing of up to 10% in a single day… and perhaps even an extended slump of up to 50%, similar to the crash of 2008.
* Hundreds of banks with significant international exposure could go belly-up, leading to thousands of businesses going bust across the globe… (I’ll show you which ones to avoid in just a few minutes.)
* The Fed could overreact in its response to this crisis, manipulating interest rates and the value of the dollar, potentially deepening the negative effects on your savings and retirement portfolio…
* Exposed global stock markets could fall right off a cliff – so you have to make sure your risk is minimal to non-existent…
* The vast migrant crisis sweeping acro