The most-requested teaser to start this fresh new year is probably the Blue Gas/Tesla Killer one from Jimmy Mengel, in an ad for The Crow’s Nest ($99/yr) — and today I’m finally getting to it. If you’re keeping track, we first saw these “Blue Gas” iterations of the ad around December 18 (though different “Tesla Killer” ads for different kinds of batteries or motors have cycled through our stories here several times over the past few years).
The spiel is all about something he calls “Blue Gas”, and it’s a little bit reminiscent of all the natural gas vehicle teaser pitches we saw eight or ten years ago… but the technology is a little different. The ad starts out with Mengel’s visit to California to try out a “blue gas” car in person, in a place where it’s poised to, he implies, take over the trucking industry…
“On the road out here you’ll see more Priuses and Teslas than in any other city in America. But this has nothing to do with either.
“In fact, here at this unknown site, salt-of-the-earth truck drivers are making the carbon-free energy revolution possible.
“You see, this gas station is at the epicenter of a $2.5 trillion revolution in energy.
“One that involves a weird form of fuel known as ‘Blue Gas.'”
So what is this magical blue gas?
“It doesn’t involve lithium or batteries or rare earths.
“It doesn’t involve solar, wind, water, biofuels, or any other form of renewable energy you’ve heard of.
“And of course it doesn’t involve oil, coal, or any other fossil fuel.
“Best of all, it’s 100% emissions free…
“It takes moments to fill up…
“And it’s 300% more powerful than oil.”
So that sounds perfect, right? No long recharge waits like for an electric car, not dirty like oil or gas. Magical!
How, then, does one make money from this technology?
“My research shows that one $3 stock at the epicenter of the ‘Blue Gas’ revolution is set to trade higher than Tesla.
“Delivering earth-shattering gains of 11,666%.
“Not nine years down the road. Or even five years.
“A massive catalyst in the next few months, that I’ll reveal today, is ready to launch its share price vertical.”
Drooling yet? Don’t worry, that’s mostly the marketing — these gains never, of course, show up overnight… and, sadly, such information is never held solely in the hand of one dude who’s selling a newsletter for 99 bucks.
Which doesn’t mean it won’t be a worthwhile investment to consider, of course, just that we should get the daydreams of 11,000% returns in a few months out of our heads first.
How about some more clues to lead us to the prize?
"reveal" emails? If not,
just click here...
“The ports of Long Beach and Los Angeles, two of the nation’s largest shipping points, are now deploying a fleet of “Blue Gas” trucks…”
So at this point it’s pretty clear that Mengel is talking up hydrogen fuel cells… which he does “reveal” later on. Fuel cells are not particularly new technology, but they have made some jumps forward in recent years.
And like all new transportation fuels or strategies, the easiest way to start is with local fleet vehicles — garbage trucks, delivery trucks, and other vehicles where fuel is a major cost and where they travel in a small enough area that they can depend on a very limited refueling infrastructure.
And this is positioned as competition for electric vehicles, and particularly for Tesla….
“The Budweiser company Anheuser-Busch is now planning a complete makeover of its truck fleet. It wants to be completely emission-free in the next few years.
“And it’s using ‘Blue Gas’ to make that transition possible.
“That’s why the beer giant recently bought 800 tractor trailers fueled by ‘Blue Gas.’
“That’s almost the entire company’s shipping fleet.
“Just to round it out, it purchased a mere 40 trucks from Tesla….
“When it comes to heavy-duty trucking power, ‘Blue Gas’ beats Tesla hands down.”
But it’s not just big fleet trucks that are going to switch over…
“Today there are only 11,000 vehicles powered by ‘Blue Gas.’ We’re on the ground floor.
“But according to the big car giants…
“There will be over 10 million ‘Blue Gas’ vehicles on the road in the next few years.”
I wouldn’t say that’s the stance of the “car giants” … but it is the goal of some governments and other bodies that are pushing for fuel cell adoption — the last conference included that 10 million vehicle “pledge” (in ten years).
And apparently there is some progress in building out the infrastructure…
“Just a few years ago, there were virtually no “Blue Gas” stations. Today, there are 300 worldwide.
“But as more gas stations switch from serving oil to “Blue Gas”…
“That number is projected to surge to over 5,000 in a few short years.”
That same International conference included the goal of 10,000 fueling stations to serve those ten million vehicles, with a real push from Japan… not surprising, since Toyota is the major automaker that’s most invested in hydrogen fuel cells.
And he goes into why hydrogen fuel cells are a better option…
“Unlike batteries… the engine technology behind ‘Blue Gas’ is:
“Safe and non-explosive.
“Takes under five minutes to refill.
“Lasts days or even weeks.
“And it’s incredibly lightweight.
“In the race for clean trucks, trains, and buses, “Blue Gas” is second to none.”
A big part of the reason why he thinks it’s going to be big is that China is pushing fuel cell tech forward…
“China’s ‘Elon Musk.’ recently made a stunning announcement…
“In short, he called for a complete shift in China to ‘Blue Gas.’
“And when this guy speaks, the Chinese government acts.
“After all, he was responsible for the country’s electric car revolution to begin with.
“The Chinese are committing a stunning $66 billion to back ‘Blue Gas.’
“In fact, the world’s largest ‘Blue Gas’ station just opened in Shanghai.”
And what’s the stock? We finally get a few clues…
“… the $3 tech stock that first began this revolution 40 years ago.”
And some hype, for good measure….
“This Is More Lucrative Than Any Pot Stock I’ve Recommended
“Even more than Bitcoin and other cryptos…
“That’s because it’s moving to the epicenter of the trillion-dollar electric vehicle revolution…
“A historic trillion-dollar energy shift that’s already transforming the way that millions power their cars…”
That “40 years ago” bit is relevant, this company is somehow connected to the “father of fuel cells”…
“… except for a few ‘niche’ markets like submarines or spacecraft, fuel cells weren’t used much.
“They simply weren’t inexpensive and small enough for everyday cars and trucks.
“In 1987, everything changed.
“One energy legend, now known as the ‘father of fuel cell technology’, made a historic discovery that put…
“Fuel Cells on the Inevitable Path to Energy Dominance”
And he talks about some fuel cell stocks that surged last year, Plug Power (PLUG), Proton Power Systems (PPS on the AIM in London), and Hydrogenics… and Hydrogenics was bought by Cummins (CMI), which leads Mengel to anticipate a “buyout surge” that will lead to a takeover frenzy for his favorite secret stock…
“A buyout frenzy is underway on small companies that are deploying the technology.
“And I’ve identified the next big takeout target…
“The tiny $3 stock I mentioned today, the one founded by the innovator behind the fuel cell revolution.”
Other clues about this one $3 stock? We get this…
“… after signing $200 million worth of deals with China’s largest engine and auto parts companies…
“It’s the frontrunner for the world’s biggest fuel cell market…
“In Shandong province alone, it’s rolling out 2,000 fuel cell buses.
“And this company is supplying it all.”
So who’s our little target? What’s “the $3 tech stock that first began this revolution 40 years ago?”
This must be little Ballard Power Systems (BLDP)… which is not a $3 stock anymore, and hasn’t been for more than six months (it was right around $7 the first time I saw this teaser ad, about six weeks ago), but it is connected to (the late) Geoffrey Ballard, the father of the fuel cell and founder of the company… and it would not be surprising if they just repurposed the spiel from a recommendation that was made a few months earlier to Jimmy Mengel’s subscribers (that’s just a guess, but it’s pretty common practice for newsletter ad copywriters).
Geoffrey Ballard left active management at Ballard Power almost 20 years ago, and, in fact, formed another company that was subsequently sold to Plug Power, another oft-touted fuel cell company, but he certainly left a legacy at BLDP.
And yes, China is a big market for fuel cells (and everything else, pretty much), and Ballard does have an “in” thanks to the fact that they sold out part of the company to form a Chinese joint venture with Weichai Power.
All of the fuel cell stocks have gone bonkers at one point or another in the past few months, driving this particular one up above $10 for a while (the stock touched $12 last week, though it’s below $10 again now)… so what’s the story?
Well, frankly, the most obvious thing you note upon a quick look at the financials is that Ballard is trading like one of the crazy cloud software stocks — at a valuation of $2 billion, it’s trading at more than 20X sales, is nowhere near profitability, and is expected to grow sales at about 35-40% a year as they sell fuel cell stacks into their buses/trucks joint venture in China as well as for existing markets (backup power, forklifts).
The future is very much lined up with China and their technology transfer to their Weichai joint venture (agreed to in early 2018), which is causing some fears and also some profit lust — which probably explains some of the surge in the past few months, as trade war fears have ebbed a bit and the stock has more than doubled in the past six months.
Not for the first time, I should note. The stock has been teased in the past as fuel cell excitement has heated up, and it has surged a few times before — particularly in 2014 and 2017. So the warning signal for investors is that things didn’t work out very well for those who bought Ballard Power the last couple times it surged quickly higher like this.
As with Plug Power and Fuel Cell and the rest of the industry, presumably a lot of the future for Ballard depends on what governments or larger companies do to push forward with hydrogen fueling stations… either in China or the US, or elsewhere… and whether alternative energy makes it far enough that generating, storing and transporting hydrogen ends up being efficient and feasible on a large scale (the government lays out some of the challenges here, in case you’re curious).
There’s some interesting bigger-picture thinking here from a couple years ago that makes some sense to me, though I’m far from being an expert on the science. Hydrogen is a challenge both because of the energy cost to create it, and because it can be challenging to store and transport safely (though natural gas and gasoline are also a challenge on that front, to be fair, and, yes, lithium batteries pose fire risks).
So the dream is that refueling stations will create their own hydrogen from electrolysis instead of having to set up a transportation infrastructure of pipelines or trucks for liquid hydrogen, and that hydrogen generation would take a lot of electricity — hopefully, for the sake of reducing reliance on fossil fuels, electricity from solar and wind and other relatively clean sources… though there are other ways to generate hydrogen as well, of course, with probably the most likely first wave using natural gas as a feedstock and fuel. Though the real hope for the next few years is not from hydrogen-powered cars, it’s all about those predictable and restricted fleet vehicles like port trucks and delivery trucks and buses — which should ring a bell for those who hoped for great riches from the natural gasification of trucking fleets a decade ago.
As an aside… remember Clean Energy Fuels (CLNE) and Westport (WPRT), the standard bearers of the natural gas transportation revolution that was heavily talked up just after the global financial crisis? They’re still around, and still generally growing revenue, but their share prices are down ~90% from their story-driven highs of early 2012, and I’d be surprised if they regain those highs in my lifetime.
So maybe hydrogen ends up being a better solution for a battery-powered fleet (hydrogen fuel cells are essentially batteries that get their charge from hydrogen, with the real advantage being that fuel cell refueling is faster than recharging, and the fuel cells have longer useful lives)… though the established electricity infrastructure (power lines, etc.) and lack of a hydrogen infrastructure means that hydrogen would also presumably have a pretty short time period in which it could “win” over batteries (assuming, of course, that battery technology continues to improve).
Ballard’s latest quarterly presentation is full of future promise but not terribly inspiring on the financial front. Yes, the promise is real, things could work out well… but right now, they aren’t. There’s an interesting Bloomberg interview with Ballard’s CEO Randy MacEwen here, essentially pointing to 2021 or 2022 as the first time investors begin to envision a future profit for BLDP, and 2025 as the forecasted beginning of the rapid growth trajectory that he envisions.
So, again, this is buying the future — or, more specifically, buying one future in which hydrogen fuel cells build on their early success in forklifts to take a huge market share in heavy trucks and buses, and hoping that Ballard will lead in this future. That’s been promoted many times in Ballard’s history, and past dreams haven’t materialized, but that doesn’t mean it’s impossible this time… just that we should check our assumptions and be skeptical of the promotions. I don’t know whether this hydrogen fuel cell future will come, or if Ballard will remain a leader, but I’d bet on it continuing to be a very volatile ride.
Thoughts, comments, questions? Let ’em loose with a comment below… and thanks for reading!
Most important thing to say is this stock is not $3.00 and hasn’t been for a year. The article above says Jan 2020 even then it was between $9 and $11 but it’s $18 now. So I’m not sure why all the fuss about something that already happened.
Why not just buy a company with the best electrolyser patents?
Which company do you recommend?
You might like this article to start due diligence -https://www.rechargenews.com/transition/nel-to-slash-cost-of-electrolysers-by-75-with-green-hydrogen-at-same-price-as-fossil-h2-by-2025/2-1-949219
Thanks for doing the research to figure out which company this promoter is talking about. It sure saves time .
If the stock is $18, what is predicted?
And it’s so remarkable that I now agree with the experts who say: “this is the Tesla killer.”
Bloomberg projects it to “skyrocket 1,000 times over.” And best of all…
The tiny little-known stock behind the “Tesla Killer” trades for only a few bucks.
Don’t wait another moment.
Now you can lock in its shares for a few dollars, instead of over $400 like Tesla.
so how and where do I buy shares in this Opp? Cheers
Here is the mail i received.
mn
I had some of both stocks and will have to check how its going. One thing is korea had 3 or 4 hydrogen fueling stations and 2 blew up. Killed one guy. Need to check Hyundai as they were going to promote the whole country to hydrogen.
Good job finding this stock. I happened to receive a marketing presentation for this $ 3 stock …. on October 24, 2020!
I just got one today in my email…still touting it as a $3.oo stock…
Hydrogen does have its advantages, but lightness isn’t one of them. It is the least energy-dense of all fuels, and the real technical feat is packing it densely enough. One hydrogen story unmentioned by Jimmy Mengel is the Hindenburg story. Few today remember the Hindenburg, the German Zeppelin that was to revolutionize transatlantic air transport in the 1920’s. Its gas bags were filled with hydrogen, and upon landing in New Jersey one rainy day, something sparked and set fire to the hydrogen. It only took about 30 seconds for the entire 1000-foot long Zeppelin to be consumed in flames. Remarkably, most of the crew and passengers survived. But hydrogen remains hard to store and explosively flammable, as the Korean gas station incident illustrates. Unlike gasoline which has weight and a smell, hydrogen is weightless compared to air, and has no smell. It is farther than gasoline from being idiotensicher.
“Hydrogen does have its advantages, but lightness isn’t one of them.” and then “hydrogen is weightless”
As soon as Joe Biden make his first speech , he will talk about green énergie to get going So we have to see
Greetings: To start this is all Greek to me as a figure of speech, so my question would be, how to buy stock in the Blue Gas market? What’s the process? Contacts? Thank you.
blue gas is an idea of the past. it would have saved tons of emissions in the past, however e.v. is where we are going argue all you want about travel distance and refuel time but ultimately e. v. is not only saving emissions but literally thousands of moving parts that wear out and cost down time and maintenance money. your finances will be much better served in e.v.’s than in any type of motor fuel,
Duh! Blue (or green) gas refers to the source of electricity for an EV. Battery power is not the only EV power source. Blue/Green gas is hydrogen to power a fuel cell, a solid state device the catalytically converts hydrogen with atmospheric oxygen to generate electricity without combustion. Therefore a blue/green gas vehicle is an EV, but where the battery is not the primary source of electricity, and shares all the same advantages of reduction of moving parts. Unfortunately, there are still questions of safety in cars/trucks carrying a load of compressed or liquid hydrogen, sometimes referred to as the “Hindenburg effect.” Blue gas is obtained from hydrocarbon sources such as natural gas or petroleum. Green gas is hydrogen produced by renewable energy sources, typically by electrolysis of water using electricity from solar and/or wind sources.
The delivery infrastructure v. free-standing electrolysis (v. “blue” or “green” source) are important distinctions. Canadian company FuelPositive is a microcap (of which I believe Travis has investigated some teasers) I’m keeping an eye on regarding green production of ammonia that could be a boon for the free-standing stations. Overall I’m encouraged by the technological push to get us away from fossil fuels, but it is indeed a volatile investment at this point.
SO WHAT IS THE STOCK SYMBOL?
Its a difficult one a better play is a company that has a foot in both buckets of lithium and electrode material for hydrogen production. I give you Impala Holdings …maybe.
Hydrogen cells infrastructure etc are more expensive, like batteries were in the future if the cost comes down then maybe it would happen, but when the Japanese are pushing something its obviously worth keeping an eye on.
Linde PLC I think it is that are a company that specialize in fueling and storage systems maybe they are worth a look also, but they are a very much established large company.
There are several advisory websites that respond to a search of ” blue gas “.
One mentioned the sources of hydrogen as being from black hydrogen, a coal based origin, and another was grey hydrogen. Both seemed to release a lot of CO2 in the process of making a “clean” fuel.
I’d say the the jury is still out on this. I wouldn’t rush to invest on get rich quick incentives…
Hydrogen is most often produced from fossil fuels, including coal, natural gas and oil. These processes produce considerable by-product CO2; so a poor alternative to get a “clean” green fuel. Hydrogen can also be produced from water by electrolysis, but that seems a poorly efficient use of electricity that can be more easily stored in a battery system and used directly with minimal energy loss. Hydrogen tends to be in short supply from refineries for petroleum, as it is needed in higher octane gasoline and plastics raw material production. This keeps its price relatively high. Liquid hydrogen can be stored in costly double-walled cryogenic containers, to give maximum gas storage at least volume/pressure for any vehicle; however liquefaction is a costly process and that drives up the price for the contained hydrogen. Finally, hydrogen itself is not a very efficient source of energy, since its total heat of combustion or conversion into water vapor yields rather limited BTU of energy per unit of gas, compared to combustion of fossil fuels, like LPG and natural gas; also gasoline. Conclusion: Hydrogen as a fuel is not a very useful alternative to other energy sources for transportation vehicles. The exception would be for local area municipal vehicles, including busses, garbage or delivery trucks, factory fork-lifts and utility vehicles that eliminat4 diesel or fossil fueled, polluting vehicle exhaust. Ballard Power serves this market rather well; yet it is a marginal opportunity market for expansion beyond present boundaries. Hydrogen is no miracle magic fuel!
You would think that this stock’s record would show a rapid and continuing rise, but that is not the case. It closed at $9.56 on May 11th, 2020, and $14.38 on May 10,2021. In between, it managed to reach the 40s on February 8th, 9th, and 10th of 2021, but it has mostly been in the 10s and 20s. Not the record you might have expected after hearing the spiel for it. I was “hot to trot” then, but no longer. Thanks. Stock Gumshoe.
Putting aside the arguments presented here the reality of e-electric vehicles as mass transport is a total delusion as the electrical charging infrastructure is utterly impossible to implement in cities as how are the charging points that E-vehicles demand going to be provided. It takes less than a millisecond to work out that how on earth anyone living in property without off street parking would ever be able to hook up up when just finding a place to park is impossible.
Then as it takes 30 kw to 100 kw to charge such vehicles you only have to work out the accumulative electrical demand of thousands of e-vehicles charging at the same time so supply cabling will burn out. I can’t be bother to go into adding the environmentally destructive issues with lithium
Hydrogen will be the fuel of all energy supply for all the obvious reasons. It addapts immediately to existing infrastructure. Even now the current new domestic gas boilers are hydrogen compatible and it will be Green Hydrogen. Musk is an idiot. Examine his behavior. Just because he made a fortune in one specific area does not make him the new messiah.
Wow, reading all the comments here really opened my eyes to questions I never thought to ask. Off street parking unavailable ? How do you recharge that EV? That and others but I’m mostly interested in the recharging vs refueling infrastructure issue. Came across this Norwegian company – Nel – interesting article below. Stockgumshoe really is the best Thanks Travis! –https://www.rechargenews.com/transition/nel-to-slash-cost-of-electrolysers-by-75-with-green-hydrogen-at-same-price-as-fossil-h2-by-2025/2-1-949219
I just thought I’d point out a couple of things. 95% of hydrogen (globally) is made by steam methane reformation. For every kilogram of hydrogen (equivalent to roughly a gallon of petrol/gas) produced, 7 kilograms of CO2 are made. As far as I know, there is no viable way to “sequester” (hide-away) this CO2, and it’s on such a scale that roughly 800 million tons are produced annually. If fuel cells take off, that can only increase.
While hydrogen is being promoted as a “clean, green” energy source, that is very definitely not now, and it is disingenuous (or lying) of promoters to call it that.
Unfortunately, the laws of physics, chemistry and economics can’t be overcome, and I suspect it will take a prodigious lobbying effort to create a decent infrastructure, considering that a small local electrolyser, which produces “green” hydrogen, sufficient to fuel 20-50 cars a day will cost about $3Million.
If the hydrogen is created by electrolysis, no harmful emissions are created, but then the hydrogen fuel cell vehicle needs roughly 3 times the electricity, overall, to go the same distance as a battery EV – such are the inefficiencies of creating and using hydrogen. (That extra electricity, if green, would be better utilised in displacing fossil fuel generators.)
With the huge funding that is going into the industry, it may well be good from an investment point of view, but please be aware that hydrogen is hardly helping the environment, if at all.
O.K…use solar, wind, and hydro to make NH3 during their otherwise low draw periods.This would utilize capital investment instead of sitting nearly idle during low consumption periods.I realize the sun and wind have down times too, but a lot of time is not utilized. Lets talk to manufacturers of fertilizer for NH3 sources.