I know quite a few folks got to chatting about Bellicum (BLCM) following Ernie Tremblay’s overly heated pitch for the stock last week, covered in the Friday File a week ago… and, well, things so far are going as they often do: Overhype the ad, overpromise some dramatic results from a presentation that’s really much more mundane but is well-timed to connect with your newsletter promo, and, whaddya know, when the actual news comes out the stock often falls even if the news isn’t necessarily bad.
Here’s what I noted last night:
Just took a look at Bellicum, this is getting quite ridiculous a week after the ad got rolling. Money Map promos are so aggressively pushed that I’m afraid lots of folks who saw those teasers must really believe that there’s huge news coming over the next couple days at that conference.
From what I can tell, Ernie Tremblay (or his ad copywriter) is the only person who thinks there’s a good chance of fantastic big surprise news right away…. my temptation would be to bet against Bellicum next week, since the kind of short term hype buildup like we’ve seen from Tremblay so often leads to disappointment — the folks who bid the stock up 30% over the past week are not likely to be dedicated long-term holders, they’re in many cases people who believed the hype and think BLCM is going to announce a groundbreaking cancer vaccine tomorrow, and a lot of them are likely to sell the news whether it’s good, bad, or, as I expect is most likely, non-news.
Didn’t trade this one personally, but I wouldn’t be surprised to see it back at $11 or $12 in the weeks to come — these heavy pressure over-promising ads often disappear as quickly as they appeared, taking their investors along with them.
So far it’s falling already today, they did release data, as teased, but it wasn’t the crazy great data Tremblay’s hype had led investors to expect — since, after all, they were hoping for a cure for cancer and got just more support for Bellicum’s efficacy in helping transplant patients.
Doesn’t mean they can’t end up being a fine investment, or that the stock is guaranteed to fall… I have no idea on that front — and it’s certainly not impossible that some big pharma company could throw money at them. ...