Navellier’s “Five Times Your Money in a Stock That Stops Cancer”

What's being teased by Navellier's Emerging Growth?

By Travis Johnson, Stock Gumshoe, February 12, 2018

I wrote about Louis Navellier’s “solar monopoly” pitch a little while ago, but there was a also a cancer-fighting stock teased in that ad… and a few folks have been asking about that second stock, so I’ll see what we can do to get the Thinkolator on the case.

Here’s a bit of the ad:

“… an up-and-coming biotech company on the verge of capitalizing on a major cancer breakthrough.

“What sets its drug apart from other treatments is that it stops cancer from spreading by inhibiting the growth of new blood vessels.”

OK, I’m no great source of wisdom on the science behind biotech stocks, to be sure, but even I know that’s a big part of the mechanism for lots of successful cancer drugs — Avastin, for example, was the first angiogenesis inhibitor (angiogenesis is the formation of new blood vessels) to get approval, back in 2004, and has been a wildly successful blockbuster drug for Genentech/Roche, and there have been many other successful drugs that aim to do the same thing in different ways or through different pathways.

So which one is this? More clues:

“Recently, a pivotal phase 3 trial led to one of its specialized treatments for renal cancer to receive a second FDA approval.

“The company is currently exploring this drug’s potential for treating other cancers through a clinical development program that includes 45 planned or ongoing trials.

“Should the company receive approval for its first-line cancer treatment, we expect to see the company’s stock price continue to soar far beyond its two-year gains of 331%.”

And one more tidbit:

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“Seven top analysts agree, not only raising the company’s earnings expectations over the past 30 days but forecasting 196% earnings growth for this year and 137% earnings growth for next year.”

So who is this? Thinkolator sez our best match is Exelixis (EXEL), which is mostly focused on building the market for its Cabometyx in additional cancer treatments. Cabometyx did get approval from the FDA in December for an additional indication in renal cell carcinoma, though we have to step back and not promise to be 100% certain of this one, because it got that approval based on a Phase 2 trial, and that is now a first-line treatment for this particular cancer.

Cabometyx is being studies in a bunch of different cancers, often in combination with major drugs (like Yervoy or Opdivo), and analysts do see substantial growth and have been raising their estimates over the past month or two, as makes sense for a company that’s getting new approvals — the current estimates I see are for 70 cents in earnings this year and $1.27 next year (though GAAP earnings are higher than that), so it’s not currently an exact match for the percentages Navellier claims… but it’s in the neighborhood, and those numbers change frequently. EXEL will report its full year 2017 results two weeks from tomorrow. You can see Navellier’s Portfolio Grader stock report for EXEL here, and you can see a free article he posted about the company a couple months ago here.

Because most of the heavy lifting on clinical trials and marketing is handled by Exelixis’ partners, their profit margins are very high and a lot of the revenue comes in the form of milestone payments and licensing fees or royalties — which means that the stock has the potential to be even more levered to clinical success/failure than your average revenue-producing mid-size biotech stock, particularly because the overwhelming amount of their revenue is from a single compound.

If you think there’s a substantial chance of Cabometyx being approved in multiple cancers as a result of the very active clinical trial slate currently underway, then there’s certainly the potential for dramatically higher revenue a few years out… but I don’t know what the odds of success are for this one, so I’ll let those of you who enjoy researching biotech stocks dig in and see if you find anything exciting in EXEL’s future. I did own this stock for a while a decade or so ago, back when it was stuck in the doldrums, but have not looked into it in great detail since 2009 or so.

So… whaddya think? Excitement for an excelsior Exelixis? Exasperation at the extreme effervescence of the promises from Mr. Navellier? Exhausted by biotech in general? Let us know with a comment below.


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Dave S.
Member
Dave S.
February 12, 2018 1:18 pm

An excellent exegesis of excecrable Navellierian exaggeration. I also owned it way back then, and after losing some money on it and selling in disgust, I note that it has risen ~6-fold. Oh well.

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vivian lewis
February 12, 2018 1:36 pm

Global Investing’s biotech maven tipped this one on our pages and I am a happy camper in EXEL despite it being a US stock.

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Gary Walgenbach
Irregular
Gary Walgenbach
February 12, 2018 1:43 pm

I think you may be right on this one. I bought quite a bit of this back in 2010 and 2011 (at an avg. cost basis of $5.95), and somehow saw just enough potential to hold on to it. Now that it’s had a decent run-up, I’ve been tempted to take some off the table, but again I see just enough future potential to continue holding onto it. Decisions, decisions . . .

Rico
Guest
Rico
February 12, 2018 2:33 pm

I was a subscriber to 2 of Navellier’s news letters and lost my ass to the tune of over $100,000 in losses on his trades. He blew up my portfolio. He’s a con man. I wouldn’t trust this PUMP AND DUMP artist. He’s pumping this crap in his news letter and selling it as you buy in.

STAY AWAY FROM THIS GUY, HE’S BAD NEWS. Here’s one example he has us buy First Solar at $175. Look at it now.

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4lllls
Irregular
4lllls
February 18, 2018 4:17 pm
Reply to  Rico

Consumer affairs would probably be a good place to report this. Disclaimer or not looks like a fraud to me. Hurry and report it to the federal trade commission, your atty general’s office, ripoff report.com and your BBB. Don’t let this slide. Let us know how you make out.

Mel
Guest
Mel
February 28, 2018 2:49 pm
Reply to  Rico

Also subscribed to his newsletter. Disaster. This man is a snake oil salesman. Eschew the fraud.

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yukonjack
Member
yukonjack
February 12, 2018 2:41 pm

How to stop cancer a lot better and cheaper…a combination of calcium, selenium, vitamin D3, IP6 rice bran also take zinc and garlic and no magnesium. This formula has been tested and has proved affective. Cancer stocks are a waste of time. If Big Pharma found a cure for cancer, their drug revenues would fall by over 50% since all their fake cancer drugs would be rendered useless.

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Big D
Guest
Big D
February 14, 2018 6:41 pm
Reply to  yukonjack

Please indicate where the studies, results, andFormula can be found. Thank you

raven
Irregular
February 12, 2018 2:55 pm

The reaction of Dr.Kss is good enough for me !!!

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John Moss
Member
John Moss
February 12, 2018 3:17 pm

owned the stock from 6

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bradyoung
Irregular
bradyoung
February 12, 2018 3:25 pm

TEN years ago?

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Bradley short
Member
Bradley short
February 12, 2018 3:38 pm

Agree with assessment on big pharma and cancer.
There are too many people making too much $$ for a “cure” to be actually realized….

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