by Travis Johnson, Stock Gumshoe | February 12, 2018 11:45 am
I wrote about solar[1]-monopoly/">Louis Navellier[2]’s “solar monopoly” pitch a little while ago, but there was a also a cancer-fighting stock teased in that ad… and a few folks have been asking about that second stock, so I’ll see what we can do to get the Thinkolator on the case.
Here’s a bit of the ad:
“… an up-and-coming biotech company on the verge of capitalizing on a major cancer breakthrough.
“What sets its drug apart from other treatments is that it stops cancer from spreading by inhibiting the growth of new blood vessels.”
OK, I’m no great source of wisdom on the science behind biotech stocks, to be sure, but even I know that’s a big part of the mechanism for lots of successful cancer drugs — Avastin, for example, was the first angiogenesis inhibitor (angiogenesis is the formation of new blood vessels) to get approval, back in 2004, and has been a wildly successful blockbuster drug for Genentech[3]/Roche, and there have been many other successful drugs that aim to do the same thing in different ways or through different pathways.
So which one is this? More clues:
“Recently, a pivotal phase 3 trial led to one of its specialized treatments for renal cancer to receive a second FDA[4] approval.
“The company is currently exploring this drug’s potential for treating other cancers through a clinical development program that includes 45 planned or ongoing trials.
“Should the company receive approval for its first-line cancer treatment, we expect to see the company’s stock price continue to soar far beyond its two-year gains of 331%.”
And one more tidbit:
“Seven top analysts agree, not only raising the company’s earnings expectations over the past 30 days but forecasting 196% earnings growth for this year and 137% earnings growth for next year.”
So who is this? Thinkolator sez our best match is Exelixis (EXEL)[5], which is mostly focused on building the market for its Cabometyx in additional cancer treatments. Cabometyx did get approval from the FDA in December [6]for an additional indication in renal cell carcinoma, though we have to step back and not promise to be 100% certain of this one, because it got that approval based on a Phase 2 trial, and that is now a first-line treatment for this particular cancer.
Cabometyx is being studies in a bunch of different cancers, often in combination with major drugs (like Yervoy or Opdivo), and analysts do see substantial growth and have been raising their estimates over the past month or two, as makes sense for a company that’s getting new approvals — the current estimates I see are for 70 cents in earnings this year and $1.27 next year (though GAAP earnings are higher than that), so it’s not currently an exact match for the percentages Navellier claims… but it’s in the neighborhood, and those numbers change frequently. EXEL will report its full year 2017 results two weeks from tomorrow. You can see Navellier’s Portfolio Grader stock report for EXEL here[7], and you can see a free article he posted about the company a couple months ago here[8].
Because most of the heavy lifting on clinical trials and marketing is handled by Exelixis’ partners, their profit margins are very high and a lot of the revenue comes in the form of milestone payments and licensing fees or royalties — which means that the stock has the potential to be even more levered to clinical success/failure than your average revenue-producing mid-size biotech stock, particularly because the overwhelming amount of their revenue is from a single compound.
If you think there’s a substantial chance of Cabometyx being approved in multiple cancers as a result of the very active clinical trial slate currently underway, then there’s certainly the potential for dramatically higher revenue a few years out… but I don’t know what the odds of success are for this one, so I’ll let those of you who enjoy researching biotech stocks dig in and see if you find anything exciting in EXEL’s future. I did own this stock for a while a decade or so ago, back when it was stuck in the doldrums, but have not looked into it in great detail since 2009 or so.
So… whaddya think? Excitement for an excelsior Exelixis? Exasperation at the extreme effervescence of the promises from Mr. Navellier? Exhausted by biotech in general? Let us know with a comment below.
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An excellent exegesis of excecrable Navellierian exaggeration. I also owned it way back then, and after losing some money on it and selling in disgust, I note that it has risen ~6-fold. Oh well.
Global Investing’s biotech maven tipped this one on our pages and I am a happy camper in EXEL despite it being a US stock.
I think you may be right on this one. I bought quite a bit of this back in 2010 and 2011 (at an avg. cost basis of $5.95), and somehow saw just enough potential to hold on to it. Now that it’s had a decent run-up, I’ve been tempted to take some off the table, but again I see just enough future potential to continue holding onto it. Decisions, decisions . . .
I was a subscriber to 2 of Navellier’s news letters and lost my ass to the tune of over $100,000 in losses on his trades. He blew up my portfolio. He’s a con man. I wouldn’t trust this PUMP AND DUMP artist. He’s pumping this crap in his news letter and selling it as you buy in.
STAY AWAY FROM THIS GUY, HE’S BAD NEWS. Here’s one example he has us buy First Solar at $175. Look at it now.
Consumer affairs would probably be a good place to report this. Disclaimer or not looks like a fraud to me. Hurry and report it to the federal trade commission, your atty general’s office, ripoff report.com and your BBB. Don’t let this slide. Let us know how you make out.
Also subscribed to his newsletter. Disaster. This man is a snake oil salesman. Eschew the fraud.
How to stop cancer a lot better and cheaper…a combination of calcium, selenium, vitamin D3, IP6 rice bran also take zinc and garlic and no magnesium. This formula has been tested and has proved affective. Cancer stocks are a waste of time. If Big Pharma found a cure for cancer, their drug revenues would fall by over 50% since all their fake cancer drugs would be rendered useless.
https://www.lewrockwell.com/2018/02/bill-sardi/how-to-produce-an-intracellular-calcium-deluge-to-induce-cancer-cell-death/
Please indicate where the studies, results, andFormula can be found. Thank you
The reaction of Dr.Kss is good enough for me !!!
owned the stock from 6
TEN years ago?
Agree with assessment on big pharma and cancer.
There are too many people making too much $$ for a “cure” to be actually realized….
I’ve read sugar feeds cancer, and by eliminating it from your diet, cancer is starved.
You can’t “starve” cancer without also starving all the other cells in your body, it mostly “eats” what other cells eat. The body is not capable of feeding its own cells and preventing cancer cells from feeding off of those same sugars (or whatever else). Eating too much sugar is bad for you, but not primarily because that sugar is helping out cancer cells, and eliminating sugar from your diet does not eliminate sugar from your body (your body still needs glucose, and makes it out of other things).
I thought angiogenesis was old news and has been largely discredited. However EXEL does have a good looking pipeline and is considered a buyout candidate this year. At an $8.6 billion MC, I think it very well could be a target.
Bought this at3.73 closed today at 29
Jeff Brown from Bonner & Partners is also selling information on biotech companies who are about to release trial results on a cancer cure. He claims to know of 3 companies who have patents for the treatment. He calls it the “God Key “
got in at24 from an Oxford ten bagger portfolio..we`ll see
So Travis,
What can you tell us about Hilary Kramer’s clues of the Microsoft of medical marijuana?
Hilary Kramer’s clues of the Microsoft of medical marijuana is GW Pharmaceuticals (GWPH). She has been punting it for some time. I own it personally (not on account of Hilary’s recommendation) and still believe in the potential growth of the industry and that GWPH’s medium term vision has merits, hence the reason for holding on.
Travis did comment on it back in March 2017 – suggest to read it – informative and insightful as always:
https://www.stockgumshoe.com/reviews/gamechangers-2/kramer-if-you-dont-take-a-small-position-in-this-marijuana-stock-youll-regret-it-for-the-rest-of-your-life/
There is only one motive behind all the new inventions for cancer – economics … Interesting that the majority of emerging biotech are involved in developing drugs (or rather poisons) for cancer. The sadness and reality is that there are cures for cancer – Big Pharma is just too mighty and powerful for these cures to be implemented.
Nixon declared war on cancer in 1971 with the promise of a massive budget for R & D to combat it. To this day after 47 years the prognosis of cancer has not improved. Is that possible with all the technological advances? I think not …
Watch the following insightful documentary:
https://vimeo.com/98075164
“Cut, Poison, Burn” known in the medical fraternity as “Surgery, Chemotherapy, Radiotherapy” is the current mainstay for treatment of cancer. It is a multibillion dollar industry and simply cannot be threatened.
In the interim biotech’s developing cancer treatments will continue to evolve …. for the benefit of whom?
I have owned $EXEL for years. It is regularly talked up on another investment site. People with real credentials in science, medicine, and finance are convinced EXEL is the real deal, and that one or more of their irons will get red hot. Ironic that the P&D crowd is discovering the stock, now that it has had a 10X ride. But look around; a lot of smart folks think it has another 2x to 3x in it.
Wondering if anyone has bought into CBIS and are you holding and why.
Does anyone know the name of the company that has just successfully developed a cancer vaccine specifically for breast cancer and cured tumors in mice..and it is thought that it will
cure other tumors and it is a certainty..I think Ronald Levy is involved in the research…..
This could be what you are looking for.
https://med.stanford.edu/news/all-news/2018/01/cancer-vaccine-eliminates-tumors-in-mice.html
Just wanted to add that while researching for the biotech company for the cancer vaccine I learned that Mangosteen juice , though bitter is good for ridding oneself of a migraine headache and even Sloan Kettering believes that it has good anti cancer properties….
Is there anyone out there who is making money on Navellier’s advice ??