The first version of this article ran way back on March 30, 2016, so it might look familiar to a lot of you — but a few folks asked about it today, and it looks like the ad is running again, still without much change to the spiel, so I’m re-publishing this teaser solution. I’ve made some mild updates to these introductory paragraphs, and added some comments to the bottom, but a lot of the article (and the ad) is word-for-word the same as it was three years ago.
Three years? Yep, before that March 2016 update, there was also a previous version of this Dr. Kent Moors “New Fuel Will Kill Big Oil” and “Magic Sand Power” pitch, back in the Fall of 2015. The stock he pitched so aggressively starting back then as the “greatest leap of mankind” stock for “free energy” had been crushed… and I kept seeing the same ads for his Energy Advantage, continuing to tease the stock, all the way down. Even as the company was filing for bankruptcy, the ad kept running.
But, apparently eager to keep using a sales pitch that must have been working nicely to bring in subscribers, they carefully swapped out the hints about that failed stock and inserted hints about a new one sometime in early 2016. The ad that started then is still running today with almost no changes (I just received it again, though it’s got an April 2018 date below the signature now), though, of course, it teases a different company.
Which is probably a good thing — that first ad from 2015, which many of you no doubt remember for the pictures of deserts and the implication that his favorite stock had found a new way to generate electricity from grain of sand, was focused primarily on SunEdison (SUNE, which delisted and became SUNEQ before disappearing entirely), which was one of the worst blow-ups in the market shortly after that as they used hedge fund-suggested financial engineering and heavy debt to grow rapidly and finance new solar installations and expansions… then fell on their face when the “cheap financing” provided by that financial engineering proved to be unsustainable and they filed for bankruptcy protection from their creditors.
The newer ad that’s been running since 2016, with some variations, still has those zoomed in photos of sand, the talk about how big corporations like Google and Facebook and Costco are depending on this “new fuel”, and the general pitch for solar power. That’s essentially the same, with minor updates, as the ad that touted SunEdison.
I don’t actually know what Dr. Moors suggested to his subscribers as SUNE fell, or when — maybe he had them out of it at $3 or $2 or something along the way and shifted course, or maybe he remained convinced that their technology and their market presence will give them the chance to dig their way out and he never sold as it dwindled to zero. We’ve left the original comments appended to this article down at the bottom, so you can see what some folks shared about it at the time, including some folks who said they were subscribers to that newsletter.
So Dr. Kent Moors, thankfully, has been teasing someone else in solar. So who is it?
—The balance of this article, other than the updated info at the bottom, is unchanged from March 30, 2016. Assuming that the Thinkolator was correct, the stock being teased is down about 45% from where it was on that day… or if you had waited until this year’s version of the ad started in April, you’d only be down 37%–
Let’s check the clues. This is from the newest version of the ad that I got today:
“And while there will be numerous plays coming down the pike, you will NEVER have another opportunity like you have today – right now!
“You see, at the center of this energy revolution sits one tiny company that’s about to go from virtual obscurity to household name.
“Their revolutionary technology has completely transformed the way this fuel is harvested.
“At the same time, they have over 130 patents protecting their market share.
“To say this company is in the driver’s seat would be an understatement of epic proportions.
“At this moment, every major energy player on the planet is banging on their door looking for cheap energy.
“Their client roster is a ‘who’s who’ of global energy players, and they are poised for a global rollout of unprecedented proportions
“In short, the upside is staggering…
“Remember, Google, Walmart, Facebook, Apple, and the U.S. Department of Defense are making massive investments into solar. And with 130 patents, this company is in the driver’s seat.”
That might sound really, really familiar — and it is almost identical to the ad that was sent around in 2015. Here’s the version that was teasing SunEdison back in November:
“You see, at the center of this energy revolution sits one tiny company that’s about to go from virtual obscurity to household name.
“Their revolutionary technology has completely transformed the way this fuel is harvested.
“At the same time, they have over 750 patents protecting their market share.
Are you getting our free Daily Update
"reveal" emails? If not,
just click here...“To say this company is in the driver’s seat would be an understatement of epic proportions.
“At this moment, every major energy player on the planet is banging on their door looking for cheap energy.
“In fact, their client roster is a ‘who’s who’ of global energy players.
“They’ve already locked in enormous long-term deals with the likes of Walmart, Google, the U.S. Department of Defense, and New York City.”
See those little changes to the specifics? No longer are we dealign with a company that has 750 patents and long-term deals with Walmart, Google, etc… now we’re dealing with a company that has 130 patents, and is in the driver’s seat for solar energy, which is also an area were Google, Walmart, etc. are making big investments, but isn’t necessarily specifically working with those mega companies.
The marketing spiel ends up giving the same impression, but the specifics are different. And, one assumes, the company being hinted at is now different — apparently Dr. Moors believes that SunEdison has fallen out of “the driver’s seat” and been replaced by a substitute driver at some point in the last few months.
So who might it be? This is what we get by way of clues:
“I’d like to introduce you to an extraordinary company.
“It is, quite literally, the SPARK that put solar on the fast-track to total domination of the global energy markets.
“If you could only own one solar company for the next 10 years, this would be the one.
“There’s no doubt in my mind…
“Remember, the energy sector is responsible for rare and exceptional trades big enough to turn $1,000 into $1 million in a single transaction.
“And while there are no guarantees, this ‘premier’ solar company could be the biggest win we’ve ever seen.
“Not just in the energy sector, but in financial history.
“Let me give you the facts…
“Own the Next Super-Major Energy Titan for Pennies on the Dollar!”
Huh. No actual clues in there, eh? That is, in fact, word for word, exactly the same thing he said about SunEdison back in the prior version of the ad.
Just a reminder to keep ahold of a healthy handful of skepticism whenever a pundit says “there’s no doubt in my mind” or “if you could only own one [company] for the next 10 years, this is it.”
So do we get anything else that might be a bit more specific about the substitute for SUNE in Moors’ affections?
Here are the hints from the old SUNE pitch:
“It’s a complicated process, and this company has taken it to a whole new level.
“You see, in its raw form, Si is full of impurities…
“These impurities inhibit the conversion process, making for expensive energy, once as high as $76 per KWH.
“That’s what makes this company’s patented technology such a remarkable breakthrough.
“During the process, very small particles of Si called ‘seeds’ are suspended in a cloud of gas.
“Si in the gas attaches to other Si particles, forming larger and larger beads.
“These beads eventually drop out of the gas like rain…
“The beads are then melted and formed into wafer-thin slices of 99.99% pure Si…
“The technology is 1,000% more efficient than the industry standard.
“And the big thing: The cost…
“Again, traditional solar cells delivered energy at a cost of $76 per KWH.
“This company’s technology is so efficient, and creates such pure Si, they are supplying a utility company with solar at 5 cents per KWH.
“That’s right. This company’s technology is so significant that utility companies are throwing in the towel and buying solar power!”
And now, from the updated pitch for the new mysterious solar company:
“It’s a complicated process, and this company has taken it to a whole new level.
“You see, in its raw form, Si is full of impurities…
“These impurities inhibit the conversion process, making for expensive energy, once as high as $76 per KWH.
“That’s what makes this company’s patented technology such a remarkable breakthrough.
“First, raw Si is melted in a mono-crystalline electric furnace.
“During the melting process, a stream of Argon is pumped into the furnace to remove impurities and inhibit oxidation.
“The molten Si is then cast into square blocks and cooled.
“The blocks are then sliced into wafer-thin slices of pure Si…
“The technology is scientific genius and creates highly purified Si, ready to convert sunlight into ready-to-use power.
“In fact, this tiny company’s patented solar cells set a NEW WORLD RECORD for power output.
“Incredible… and the big thing: the cost…
“Again, traditional solar cells delivered energy at a cost of $76 per KWH.
“This company’s technology is so efficient, and creates such pure Si, they are supplying a utility company with solar at 5 cents per KWH.”
Seriously? Those, again, are almost identical. Are there really two “remarkable breakthroughs” from different companies? Or did the copywriter just tinker slightly with the ad so it could apply to someone aside from SUNE?
Well several solar cell manufacturers over the years have set “world records” of various types — including efficiency, cost, output, etc. But if you’re talking about this particular silicon manufacturing process, and a world record for power output, and 130 patents, then what Dr. Moors is teasing this time around is JinkoSolar (JKS).
About which I know almost nothing — but it has not, at least, fallen apart like SunEdison. They are, like SunEdison, vertically integrated — they process their own silicon, including recycling, and create their own wafers and build their panels, but they also do develop solar power projects. Here’s how they describe themselves:
“JinkoSolar (NYSE: JKS) is a global leader in the solar industry. JinkoSolar distributes its solar products and sells its solutions and services to a diversified international utility, commercial and residential customer base in China, the United States, Japan, Germany, the United Kingdom, Chile, South Africa, India, Mexico, Brazil, the United Arab Emirates, Italy, Spain, France, Belgium, and other countries and regions. JinkoSolar has built a vertically integrated solar product value chain, with an integrated annual capacity of 3 GW for silicon ingots and wafers, 2.5 GW for solar cells, and 4.3 GW for solar modules, as of December 31, 2015. JinkoSolar also sells electricity in China, and had connected approximately 1,006.6 MW of solar power projects to the grid, as of December 31, 2015.”
They are not nearly as levered as SunEdison, which isn’t saying much — they have boosted their borrowing over the past couple years, so they have about $2 billion in debt matched by about $800 million in cash at the end of 2015, though they also have a much larger “accounts payable” line than they do “accounts receivable” — so it’s a larger operation than is indicated by the market cap of only $600 million. Their revenue has doubled over the past couple of years, and they have been profitable for a couple years, so presumably they can handle that leverage. On an Enterprise Value/EBITDA basis they’re in a fairly similar valuation neighborhood to both industry giant First Solar (FSLR) and the similarly sized Chinese solar company Canadian Solar (CSIQ) — JKS is at EV/EBITDA of 8.5, FSLR and CSIQ are both around 7.
When it comes to earnings, analysts expect that JKS will earn $5 a share this year and boost that by about 15% to $5.78 in 2017… which means there’s obviously some risk or fear in there that I don’t know about, because that means JKS is trading at only 4X expected earnings for the current year. That doesn’t generally happen unless a lot of investors smell a rat or are panicked about a sector. It could just be that analysts have no idea how to guess at earnings — JKS reported earnings that were dramatically worse than expectations for the first three quarters of last year (as in, 50% lower than expected), but then also reported earnings for that final quarter that were more than 30% higher than expected. So I’d use those analyst forecasts sparingly, don’t count on them too much. For actual trailing earnings, JKS earned about $3.30 a share in 2015 — so even on that metric it’s not terribly expensive at about 7X trailing earnings.
So… why is it so cheap in a sector that is generally seeing top line growth? Is it just that their earnings have fallen by about 25% a year over the last several years? Is it fear of the sector because of price competition? Are people still just afraid of all Chinese solar stocks because of the horror stories of fraud and the worry about being unable to trust numbers from some Chinese companies?
I have no idea, I’m afraid… but I am sure that the Thinkolator is accurate in telling us that Dr. Moors has thrown his weight behind JinkoSolar as the standard-bearer for solar power.
And now that we’re in late 2018, three years after Moors initially tantalized us with tales of SunEdison’s might and then shifted gears to focus on JinkoSolar a few months later, are there any other updates to the spiel above?
Well, there were some minor changes along the way — JinkoSolar now has more patents, 200 patents with another 102 pending, Moors says. And the price of solar energy has continued to fall precipitously, those ads from a couple years ago touted the exciting breakthrough that let them sell solar electricity at five cents per kilowatt hour, and that best price has now been cut in half to 2.4 cents.
And yet, this is what the share price has looked like for JinkoSolar:
The valuation is still cheap for JKS on an absolute basis, they have a trailing PE of about 9 now, and analysts think they’ll end this year with about $1.50 in earnings — that’s a lot for an $11 stock. But they also don’t see any revenue growth over the next few years, so earnings are mostly predicated on them somehow improving their profit margins — they’ve had fairly flat revenues over the past two years, and profits have varied wildly, so maybe they will become more profitable… I dunno. They are obviously and clearly impacted by trade war chatter, and by stricter US import rules for solar panels that came into play before the broader trade war craziness, so it’s probably foolhardy to try to predict the future with any precision.
They are still growing in terms of production and units sold, they had a record shipping quarter last time out (three gigawatts, almost), and that helped to boost their earnings and support the stock, and they have announced some big deals to supply panels for large projects in Vietnam and Nevada in recent months. Debt is still a concern, as interest costs rise, but they have a lot of cash on hand so they’re not in any immediate danger.
Think it will work out? Have other favorites in the space? Here’s a bit of perspective on some of the other solar stocks that jumped to mind, and how those stocks have done since this ad started running — you’ll see JinkoSolar there in blue, not quite the worst performer but beating only ReneSola (SOL), while First Solar (FSLR) is fairly close by and Canadian Solar (CSIQ) and Sunrun (RUN) have bested JKS pretty nicely… but even the solar ETF (Invesco Solar ETF, ticker TAN) has lost value over those 32 months.
JKS Total Return Price data by YCharts
Have a favorite on that list? Prefer some other solar player? Let us know with a comment below.
P.S. If you’re wondering about the other two companies Moors is pitching in this ad, those appear to be unchanged — still Solar Window (WNDW) for their experimental “solar panel” windows for skyscrapers, and Tesla (TSLA) for their Powerwall battery that can provide “nighttime solar.” We covered those two in the follow-up article here, my opinion on them hasn’t changed. Tesla is hot again of late and is up 65% since November of 2015, when I first covered that Energy Advantage teaser… WNDW is up about 18%, thanks largely to some recent strength on the back of a financing deal and an early stage “alliance” with an equipment provider, so if you had put equal amounts into those two stocks you would be up about 41%, a bit better than the S&P 500’s 36% return (if he had started with JKS instead of SUNE back then in a three-stock “solar” portfolio, that would have returned 12%… if investors had stuck with SUNE after that first November 15 teaser pitch, then a portfolio of SUNE, WNDW and TSLA would have resulted in a 6% loss).
I hate to admit that I too was taken in by Moors regarding SUNE. Even though I’ve only been involved in stocks for about 4 months, I’m 74 years old and should have known better. And, adding insult to injury, I also bought JKS at Moors’ recommendation. Hoping to be able to sell it soon if I can almost break even (looks like it’s on the way down also).
I’m not only disgusted with Moors…. Seems the entire lot of Agora’s people are shysters, con-artists, or the like. I’m glad to finally be shut of the entire lot.
WSJ now reporting that SUNE has been in negotiations for bankruptcy financing and planning a Chapter 11 filing soon. Should be no surprise with the stock trading at 40 cents, but this will be a confusing workout thanks to the asset drop-downs to their yiedcos (which are now far stronger than the parent, and own much of the assets).
What about perpetual motion as free energy… My dad always tells me when he’s drunk, ‘Hey David– you wanna headline with thing?”
In reference to his perpetual motion contraption.
I’m interested in finding out if ANY of these newsletter recs panned out. I’m particularly wary of ANYTHING that’s associated with Agora or Porter Stansberry. I’ve been watching them for years and NOTHING has ever panned out. Maybe someone else has a different opinion.
Lot of excellent analysis from Porter Stansberry’s associates but I would put Porter Stansberry himself in the same category as Moor. Stay away from Porter and Moor. They should have known that people who brag about how good they are do not realise how annoying it actually is – just check the way these two people wrote their recommendations. Especially, we can easily check how lousy their track records are. Everytime Porter start with big words and something like “Allocate your money more than you usually do on my today’s recommendation………” you gonna win pretty big if you do the OPPOSITE. I do not understand how good and decent people like Eifrig, Ferris or Sjuggerud – who have given lot of excellent recommendations for their subscribers – are all under the umbrella of Porter Stansberry’s.
They overall do quite well. There copyrighted advertisements are just a fraction of their selections.
Scare tactics. Oxford Club now disclosing research that Saudi Arabia is going to destroy our economy. They naturally have the ways & means to save yourself.
Something about Saudi Arabia and Kuwait oil field increase of production of another 300k barrels per day. This is coming from the new King. He don’t care about previous OPEC agreements. Pitching 7 stocks that will get demolished, and 1 that will be a solid winner. But you have to subscribe to Sean Brodrick’s information to find out. Sounds frightening. Interest rates will have to be raised dramatically due to this new scheme. Bonds, stocks, retirement plans all will be affected, destroyed, etc.,etc….
Might want to look into this one may be worse than the Moore’s EA that has caught attention of many readers.
The very best way to profit on the neverending supply of newsletters and their investment suggestions looks too obvious. Take a short position whenever possible. Best timing is after the run up that usually occurs following their information blitz. Maybe gumshoe could start a division that is dedicated to actively following a basket of newletters that have the questionable history and track the suggested plays. ( believe there is not shortage of supply) This would be an information site or newsletter most worthy of a subscription fee charge.
This is already done on individual teases every single day here at Gumshoe.
Laws of Finance – Yieldcos , MLPs, BDCs- http://www.smallcapnetwork.com/An-Important-Post-Mortem-on-SunEdison/s/article/view/p/mid/7/id/2046/
“Dr.” Kent Moors kind of reminds me of Michael O’Donoghue from the old SNL “Mr. Mike’s Least Loved Bedtime Tales”.
Sometimes it is the little lies, trivial detail, that expose the whole picture.
I was taken in by Moors a few years ago, but he often referred to secret meetings of a high powered Energy forum at Windsor Castle, the Queen’s home in UK. About one meeting he commented ‘live from Windsor’ on the extreme weather. Well, I can see Windsor Castle from my house and his comments were completely wrong, in fact late by a week, so he obviously cribbed the report and invented the whole meeting.
Ever since then his disastrous record suggests that he makes everything up whilst sitting in his kitchen.
he said to buy one dollar puts on XCO. Instead I bought XCO at 60 some cents and it’s up to 83 now/ it’s like do the opposite of what he says.
0.94! Nice play.
PT Barnum said it best: “There’s a sucker born every minute”. I, too, was
scammed by the Money Map phonies – all of them, over time. I quit receiving their
scams newsletters, and weekly pitches on the net. They are now history with me. Thanks,
Stock Gumshoe for your professional vision and insight into these scam artists.
Tom C
Maryland
So glad most agree Moore is terrible.!Have thought the same for along time.cant stand him!!!
Moors recommended Linc Energy 3 times in both his newsletters over the past 3 years and to hold it w/out a stop. Well they are in bankruptcy proceedings as I write. Linc (now BRE) had rights to 250 billions bbls of oil in Australia. Moors obviously knew nothing of the cowboy founder who drove the company into massive debt and was finally kicked out late 2015. Also, Moors has a habit of recommending a stock sans minimal fundamental financial analysis. Instead, you have to read in every newsletter that he is in a hurry while writing and must soon board an airplane on the way to some high level meeting somewhere in the world (Windsor Castle or Saudi) where oil ministers and dictators are waiting w/baited breathe to hear his latest bits of wisdom on world oil markets. Stay away from this guy. I lost a ton on his recommendations.
These comments by gumshoe subscribers on Stansberry associates comes at a time when I am down $4000. Yes following their instructions. There should be an Artificial Intelligence based machine that impartially analyzes the results of those recommendations. There are literally thousands of these so called experts that are farming the internet to get money for their analysis. Come to think about, does anyone reading my comments have any ideas on how to police those shysters? To me, the analysis needs to be based on simple physics. Any comments? The shysters are similar to the Nigerian emails telling us the we have won $10,000,000, just send me 1,000 or 2 thousand bucks and I tell you where you can get it.
It should be noted that Dr. Moors is NOT with Stansberry. I have made plenty of money with Stansberry, especially with Tradestops.
I was a subscriber to the good Dr. Moors’ newsletter for a few years and let us just sweetly say that I would have made a bunch of money with his recommendations had I simply shorted his list of buy recommendations for stocks. He is a perfect “wrong way Corrigan”. I didn’t buy much and thus he didn’t hurt me badly but it was worth the subscription to see a perfect charlatan in action. Listening to his self promo list of accomplishments, if he worked for a special government agency as claimed, they would have offed him in short fashion.
You have been warned!
I too was with Mr. Moore for a short time. I did not go by his recommendations, but observed them Fall and Stumble, then he’d come up with a reason to “Back Up the Truck” and buy more!! …Maybe he should have clarified he meant a DUMP TRUCK!! I remember his call when Oil dipped to $95 that it was headed to $120+, then to $150–Sound Familiar??? 6 months later it was in the mid 60’s –He’s an institutional “Insider” Maybe so!! But it must be at a Mental Institution!! I Bailed after a short time & got my 2 year money Back!! …NEVER Again!! ….Doing the Opposite would be the Only thing to do with most of his recommendations!! You’d have a 70% + Win rate–Not Bad, right there!!
I Must Clarify, it was over 3 years ago!! He has gotten even Worse since those days!!…and Yes, many times he couldn’t leave a full recommendation because he was in a hurry to catch a flight to meet in Germany, Saudi Arabia, Russia….or Perhaps meeting Alice….in Wonderland!! Come to think of it, he dose sort of resemble ths Mad Hatter!! LOL
there is a race to see who is the lousyist stok picker etween dapper moore vs agora think its a tie agora rcommended xsnx even though citron had it on their list for quite a while it trades in mills less than a penny
I like 8point3 energy CAFD. Young company with their portfolio in several commercial projects and balanced with residential. Earlier this year you could have acquired at a price delivering 7% dividend. I recommend buying when it dips under 14.50
I must confess that all this discussion of Dr. Moors arroused my curiosity to the point that I actually started to watch his email today, until I saw that it went on for an hour and five minutes. However, the following excerpt is all one needs to know:
“My name is Dr. Kent Moors…
If my name sounds familiar, maybe it’s because you’ve seen my analysis in Money Morning.
Or perhaps you’ve seen me breaking down energy policy on CNN, BBC, CNBC, ABC, Bloomberg TV, Fox Business Network, or other major media outlets. I’m a regular guest and have appeared over 1,400 times as a featured commentator.
I’m also an advisor to 27 world governments…
In fact, the U.S., Russia, China, Iraq, Australia, and Kazakhstan are just a few of the nations that turn to me for advice on global energy dynamics.
In addition, I’ve advised every major agency of the federal government on energy matters… not to mention numerous U.S. states and governors.
Plus just about every major energy company on the planet.
In fact, I’m a consultant to 6 of the world’s top 10 oil producers, and I’m currently helping seven global oil companies restructure their businesses.” It sounds like a skit from Saturday Night Live.
Dr. Moors has a BIG mouth, tiny brain, and stinking asshole.