Another electric vehicle teaser ad for our consideration today… Extreme Disruptions Trader ($1.495/yr “charter price”, no refunds) from David Fessler at the Oxford Club seems to be a new letter getting launched this month and he says in the ad that it will follow strategies for buying past early disruptors like Roku (ROKU), DocuSign (DOCU), Innovative Industrial Properties (IIPR) or Beyond Meat (BYND), and he says he’ll recommend a new “extreme disruption” every week, targeting small companies and “low-priced shares” and also using options to leverage returns.
He sounds very bullish in general about electric vehicles, and all you have to do is look at Tesla’s (TSLA) chart to know that he’s not alone… here’s a little taste of the ad:
“Even if you’re just discovering EV stocks now, you haven’t missed the boat. Not by a long shot.
“That’s because a $44.5 BILLION government windfall is about to kick this industry into overdrive.
“And my research shows that ONE tiny company could see its business expand as much as 28-FOLD as a result.
“This company’s not on the list I just showed you. In fact, it’s still a private company.”
Ah, so I bet you know where this is going. I’ll give you a hint, it rhymes with “Thwack” … more from the pitch:
“But don’t let that stop you.
“Thanks to what The New York Times calls ‘a back door to Wall Street,’ you can buy shares TODAY.
“That’s right. Through a unique investment vehicle, you can get in on the hottest IPO of the decade BEFORE it goes public.
“Even better, you don’t have to be a venture capitalist or an accredited investor with loads of capital.
“In a moment, I’ll show you how anyone with a basic trading account can buy shares ahead of the big IPO I’m expecting on February 11.”
So what is it that he’s calling his “No. 1 EV Stock for 2021?”
The big driver in this ad is that he says the expected surge in federal infrastructure spending will pour tons of money into this business… and that a lot of it will go to the recharging networks that electric cars needs if they’re going to become a larger part of the national transportation picture:
“… there’s a $44.5 billion infrastructure plan underway in Washington that could make EVs an even hotter market.
“It contains a provision that could solve the BIGGEST problem facing the EV market today: the scarcity of EV charging stations.”
Will it work out? Who knows, I’ve been completely wrong about Tesla (TSLA) for years and Fessler has apparently been right, so I won’t stick my neck out and tell you not to buy the stock, whatever we find it to be — just be aware that as with all of these speculative EV-related stocks, you’re buying the future, not the present, and the future can change quick. A bunch of these companies will fail… I just don’t know which ones.
More from the ad…
“…this plan… calls for the building of 500,000 EV charging stations across America.
“Once that happens, the ratio of charging stations to gas stations will COMPLETELY flip.
“And EV charging stations will outnumber gas stations by nearly 5-to-1.
“This could be HUGE for the stock in my new report, ‘The EV IPO of the Decade.'”Are you getting our free Daily Update
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There are only something like 25-30,000 electric vehicle charging stations at this point (many of them have multiple chargers, so there are close to 100,000 outlets, if that’s what the measure is), and there are something like 115,000 gas stations in the US.
Of course, there are a lot of variables in this 3D chess game… filling your car with gasoline takes about two or three minutes per 300 miles driven, versus at least half an hour to charge an EV for that much range… and a lot of places have one or two chargers, while the typical gas station has anywhere from four to 40 pumps, but it’s also true that most EV chargers and most gas pumps are vacant most of the time… so figuring out the capacity that’s needed to create “enough” for a national electrified vehicle future is enough to give a quantum physicist a headache.
But anyway, which stock is he picking?
Fesller calls this stock “The Charging King” — and I expect some of you are already guessing at the name — but can we confirm that this is the stock you think it is?
Here are our clues:
“In the U.S., it has 39% market share with 6,895 stations.
“Can you imagine what would happen to this company’s business if it built 39% of these proposed 500,000 charging stations?
“You don’t have to imagine; I’ve done the math. Its business would expand 28-fold!”
Not to give away the answer so early here, but that info is actually quite old — it’s from 2017. I don’t know if the market share has shifted meaningfully, but certainly those numbers have changed.
“The Charging King counts a staggering 60% of Fortune 50 companies as customers.￼
“Check in at any Marriott, Sheraton, Ritz-Carlton, Hyatt or Best Western and you’ll likely see one of its chargers in the parking lot.”
And he sees big things coming when the federal government gets into the business of really pushing for more EV charging stations…
“In my opinion, The Charging King is the only candidate with the experience, market share and resources to handle this massive, 500,000-unit order. “
This company also sells at-home chargers, which is also a competitive market since most EV owners want to be able to recharge their car fully overnight, or using their solar panels…
“The Charging King has cornered the consumer market too….
“On Amazon’s list of bestselling home chargers, this company is No. 1!
“As Americans rush into Ford dealerships to lease the all-electric F-150, which home charger do you think most folks will buy?
“My money’s on The Charging King’s No. 1 bestseller.”
And a forecast for that part of the market…
“CleanTechnica – a leading EV research firm – projects that drivers will buy 4 million electric vehicles in 2021.
“If just 1 million of them buy this $649 charger…
“The Charging King will rake in $649 million in sales.”
And, of course, the specifics of this coming “IPO” …
“I expect The Charging King to go public on February 11….
“And anyone can buy backdoor shares ahead of the IPO with a basic investment account. You can learn how to do it as soon as this presentation is over.”
There are three fairly high-profile EV charging companies that have agreed to “go public” in the past few months, all of them by merging with a SPAC (Special Purpose Acquisition Corporation, the “blank check” companies everyone’s been salivating over for the past year or so) — there’s ChargePoint, which is merging with Switchback Energy Acquisition Corp (SBE), EVBox (merging with TPG Pace Beneficial Finance (TPGY)) and EVgo (merging with Climate Change Crisis Real Impact I Acquisition (CLII)), to say nothing of companies that have been public for at least a few minutes longer, like Blink Charging (BLNK) and Beam Global (BEEM)… so which one is David Fessler touting here?
Thinkolator sez it must be ChargePoint, which, yes does boast the #1 best seller on Amazon for Electric Vehicle Charging Stations in the $699 ChargePoint Home Flex Charger, though they’re best known for their larger national charging network.
And yes, ChargePoint is going public (or intends to, at least) through a merger with Switchback Energy Acquisition Corp (SBE), and, as Fessler noted, that deal is expected to close in February, with the key date being the February 11 vote of SBE shareholders. Once the deal is approved (and the share price tells you it’s virtually certain to be approved, unless we find out in the next week that ChargePoint’s CEO eats babies or something… and even that might not slow it down).
I haven’t even looked up the name of ChargePoint’s CEO, to be clear, and I’m sure he or she does not eat babies. Just making a point. Stand down, lawyers.
The challenge for investors today, of course, is that none of this is new — the deal to take ChargePoint public through the merger with the SBE SPAC was announce