“If I had to pick one stock…. World’s No. 1 Stock When Gold Booms” teased by Dan Ferris

"If I had to pick one stock to put every penny of my life savings into… this would be it."
What's Stansberry's Extreme Value hinting at as the "Best Gold Business on Earth?"

By Travis Johnson, Stock Gumshoe, August 20, 2018


This article was first published in late February, and was lightly updated in April, the last time the ad ran heavily — and now the ad is circulating again in mid-August, so I’ve made some slight updates again. What follows is mostly unchanged from 2/28. The price of the stock is also again close to where it was in February, right around C$3.00.

Dan Ferris is out with a new teaser pick, and I haven’t seen one from him for quite some time… so let’s check it out. The emails introducing this ad are definitely over the top… this is probably what’s really getting the attention of readers:

“If I had to pick one stock to put every penny of my life savings into… this would be it.

“I’d bet my cash… my retirement savings… all of it… all on this single company.

“If that sounds like promotional bluster to you, you clearly don’t know me. And you’ll miss out on this opportunity completely.

“Because the fact is, I’ve been in this business for nearly 20 years… recommending hundreds of stocks… and this is only the second time I’ve ever felt anywhere near this kind of conviction.”

And more recently:

“Today, I’m sharing the #1 stock recommendation of my career.

“A royalty stock.

“Collecting royalties is one of the most lucrative businesses on earth.

“It’s the definition of what Porter Stansberry calls ‘capital efficiency’—where the profits can scale up big time… but the fixed costs are practically zero.”

The question I got from a bunch of readers when this ad first circulated in mid-February was, “is this Altius again?” And that’s understandable, since Altius Minerals (ALS.TO, ATUSF) has been teased off and on by Ferris for years — but this one appears to be something a bit different.

This caught my eye early on in the ad:

“It’s a royalty business that’s much smaller than Royal Gold, Wheaton Precious Metals or any other firm you’ve ever heard of. Yet, based on my research, its potential market is 6 times bigger, because in addition to gold and silver – it collects royalties on dozens of other resources too.

“There are only a handful of companies on Earth that do anything like this, which is one reason why readers who followed my initial recommendation are up over 100%… even during a bear market in precious metals… and have started collecting a nice annual dividend as well.

“But that’s not the opportunity I’m sharing today.

“The fact is, what I’m about to show you is even better…”

OK, so that’s a reference to Altius… and a confirmation that his new recommendation is different and, he thinks, “something better.” Altius Minerals has been one of my larger holdings for a long time now, and remains my biggest single exposure to commodities, and I did first learn about it because of a Dan Ferris teaser pitch way back in 2009… so I’m intrigued enough to research further. What’s this new idea?

Well, he hints at it a bit during the course of the ad for his Extreme Value newsletter (“on sale” for $1,000, no refunds), so we’ll check out the hints he drops and see what the Thinkolator can find. Here’s what really got Gumshoe readers excited:

“World’s No. 1 Stock When Gold Booms

“In short, the No. 1 stock recommendation of my life is a company that makes millions of dollars every single day from gold, silver, and other precious natural resources.

“I call it ‘the Best Gold Business on Earth.’

“As I’ll explain, it’s like getting in on the world’s best royalty companies at the very beginning of their astronomical runs.”

And then we get some clues…

“… it’s not a conventional royalty collector… ”

” it’s not a miner… explorer… producer… or any other type of business you’ve likely heard of, either.”

And hints at some serious safety…

“This is an opportunity where you could triple your money – or more – if nothing goes right.

“You could put on a blindfold before you buy it and then forget you own it for 10 years – never once checking in on the gold market. I’m nearly certain you’d be a lot richer at the end.

“That’s why this is ‘my’ kind of stock… and not some high-risk speculation for gold diehards.”

I love royalties, the notion of collecting cash in perpetuity without doing any more work really appeals to my inner lazy bum… so what kind of royalty is Ferris teasing here?

“This other kind of royalty is different.

“It’s a payout on gold that’s already been mined.

“Tons and tons of gold. And not just once. Or once per year. But permanently… every month… forever….

“If you’ve ever owned some of the most popular gold (or silver) investments in the world… odds are you’ve paid this type of royalty, without even knowing it….

“That’s because the Best Gold Business on Earth collects a fat, steady royalty-type payment not on a mine… or an exploration project… but on a big chunk of the gold market itself.

“They essentially take a cut based on people’s desire to own gold.”

Well that’s intriguing… and it pretty well narrows things down to just a couple of businesses that could match those clues.

And it is, apparently, not terribly complicated… from the ad:

“This has nothing to do with gold futures… price setting… or any kind of reckless financial engineering.

“The Best Gold Business on Earth plays a role that’s not only 100% transparent and ethical… but an important part of a functioning gold market.”

So this is pitched as a “you can’t lose” investment… it doesn’t require gold to go up to make money, but “the upside in this stock pretty much explodes when gold gets going.” That’s pretty irresistible, right? So what is it?

Well, it’s apparently a company that’s growing and did a recent acquisition of some sort:

“The royalty-like core of this business just doubled in size.

“Not gradually, over years, but overnight – in a deal that’s going to make shareholders a ton of money.

“Keep in mind, profit margins on this segment of the business are around 80%.

“Yes, you heard that right. 80%. It’s the kind of money you can only make in ridiculously capital efficient businesses like royalties.”

What else? It pays a dividend…

“I haven’t even mentioned the fact that the Best Gold Business on Earth pays a roughly 4% annual dividend.”

And apparently it has four other businesses aside from this core “royalty” business… per Ferris:

“I haven’t told you that apart from the core, royalty-like business I’ve already told you about… this company also has at least five other resource market businesses – with tremendous upside – that you get thrown in practically for free.

“Every single one of them makes money. And every single one has big upside tied to the potential in gold and silver.”

And those businesses are apparently synergistic….

“when someone becomes a client of one segment of the Best Gold Business on Earth, they’re immediately exposed to all the other, smaller segments, allowing each client more opportunities to growth their wealth with gold and other precious metals… and therefore giving the overall company more opportunities to take a big cut.”

And one more bit of the hyperbole, just so we can look back in a few years and remember how strongly Ferris pitched this one:

“The Best Gold Business on Earth today is the best opportunity I’ve found in my entire career of picking stocks.

“Readers often ask me: ‘Dan, If you had to put everything into one stock, which would it be?’

“Most analysts will never tell you – either because they don’t know… or because they’re not willing to risk their reputation on the chance of being wrong.

“But for me, this is it – the one stock I’d bet everything on….

“The Hands-Down, No. 1 Pick of My Career.”

What other clues pop up in the ad? We’re told that the stock is currently trading close to Dan’s maximum buy price… and that it has a blockchain connection.

And that last bit is, of course, what got a few Gumshoe readers all twitchy when they sent in their questions… we’ve all seen ludicrous blockchain and bitcoin-related stocks go parabolic for no real reason. So what’s the blockchain connection here? More from the ad:

“… this company owns a substantial stake in a blockchain-based gold venture that could create a bigger gain for investors than everything else I’ve talked about today.

It’s a ‘lottery ticket’ that could pay out 100x. And by owning this stock, you get it essentially for free right now.”

OK, so leaving aside the fact that a 100X return for the jackpot winner would be the worst lottery ever, we get the metaphor — this is a “risk a little, maybe get lucky” part of the business.

So what is this crypto stuff? Here are the hints from Extreme Value…

“… the Best Gold Business on Earth has been working on this technology for two years– long before Bitcoin or blockchain became household words in 2017.

“And what they’ve created is the holy grail of cryptocurrencies:

“A fully redeemable, gold-backed crypto token.”

There are a shockingly large number of those in development, so this doesn’t give us our definitive answer, but it’s a good clue.

And he lays it on a bit thick:

“… this company owns a piece of the technology that will make gold into money again… which has been a dream of hard asset investors and critics of fiat currency since Nixon abandoned the gold standard nearly 50 years ago.”

Ferris notes that Bloomberg estimates the total gold trading activity to be $27 billion a day in the over the counter markets (meaning, people buying and selling gold back and forth), and that this company’s crypto initiative could make that far more efficient.

So… what does the Thinkolator tell us? We don’t get many other clues, and the clues we do have are a wee bit squishy… so what might push us over the edge in getting some certainty about an answer?

Well, he clarifies that this royalty is not collected from mines, but from investors. So that’s a good little confirmation of one of our suspicions…

“And this business isn’t a crazy speculation on finding gold in the middle of nowhere. It just keeps collecting its royalty on the gold market, from millions of investors all over the world… every month… forever.”

And he hints about one of the key people involved in this company:

“This business is run by from one of the most successful and wealthiest resource investors in American history… and I talk to him regularly.

“I can’t tell you his name, to protect his privacy.

“But even if you know next to nothing about gold… royalties… or the resource markets… there’s a chance you’d recognize him.

“I’ll call him ‘Mr. X.’ He’s run a series of investment partnerships in the private markets – the equivalent of small hedge funds focused exclusively on exploiting resource booms.

“One of those hedge funds would have compounded your wealth at 55% a year, after fees.”

And that will have to be enough… so we feed all that into the Mighty, Mighty Thinkolator, let it chew for a few minutes, and sit patiently. After a few moments, it spits out our answer: this must be the Canadian asset management firm Sprott, Inc. (SII in Toronto, SPOXF OTC in the US), and those “royalty-like” revenue streams are “fees on precious metals investments,” particularly ETFs.

Sprott for a while became a pretty diversified asset management company, offering up lots of mutual funds for Canadian customers, but of late it has been returning to its roots in the natural resources sector, selling off their “diversified” Canadian accounts and assets and refocusing on being both an ‘alternative’ asset manager and an investment banker/merchant bank for natural resources companies. Here’s how they describe themselves:

“Sprott is an alternative asset manager and a global leader in precious metal and real asset investments. Through its subsidiaries in Canada, the US and Asia, the Corporation is dedicated to providing investors with best-in-class investment strategies that include Exchange Listed Products, Alternative Asset Management and Private Resource Investments. The Corporation also operates Merchant Banking and Brokerage businesses in both Canada and the US. Sprott is based in Toronto with offices in New York, Carlsbad and Vancouver.”

And yes, Sprott does indeed run several precious metals ETFs, and they recently enlarged that exchange-traded precious metals portfolio pretty substantially when Sprott acquired the Central Fund of Canada, the longstanding closed-end fund that has been a way for investors to own gold and silver through an exchange-traded vehicle for decades — so that must be the “doubling of the royalty business” that Ferris hints at.

And it does boast the presence of both legendary resource investor Eric Sprott and Rick Rule, and I assume Rule is the “Mr. X” referred to by Ferris (those investment partnerships referred to were his Exploration Capital partnerships started over the years by his Global Resource Investments, which was bought by Sprott, bringing Rule in to run Sprott’s US asset management business, in 2011 — that Global Resource Investments business is why Sprott lists a major location in Carlsbad, CA, Rick Rule’s home base).

And yes, to cross our “t’s” on the clues, Sprott is indirectly involved in bringing blockchain to the gold markets — though they’re in an extremely crowded field with that one. Their investment is in Tradewind Markets, which is a well-funded and well-covered effort to use blockchain to increase liquidity and speed and trust in gold trading. I don’t think they were the first to think about using blockchain for gold trading and authentication, or “backing” a cryptocurrency with gold, and there are certainly a dozen or more relatively high profile cryptocurrencies today that are trying to do just that… but it has been around for close to two years now, and it seems to be taken pretty seriously.

What else matches? They do also pay a roughly 4% dividend, so that’s lovely.

Sprott has been coming out of the doldrums recently, perhaps partly because of this Central Fund of Canada deal. The stock hit new 3-year highs in the spring after a really weak three years, though the faltering gold price has brought it back down.

Will it be the best gold stock ever? I have no idea — they have been getting more focused on the natural resources business, aiming to be the Goldman Sachs of junior miners, so if that sector takes off again they should be quite levered to rising gold prices or rising “animal spirits” in the exploration business… and it’s true that as an investment banker and asset manager they are fee earners as opposed to mining and resources operators, so that cuts down on the downside risk much like royalty companies are lower-risk than mine builders.

What’s the story with the company if we ignore the Ferris prognostications? A quick spin through the financials tells us that Sprott does not have any long-term debt, so that also helps to limit downside risk, and their income statement has shown steady improvement over the past year or so… perhaps partly because of those asset sales as they’ve gotten rid of the diversified parts of the business.

They trade at about 2X book value, which is perhaps on the high side for an investment banking/asset management group, but not crazy high, particularly for a small company that you think might have growth potential (Sprott’s market cap is only about $600 million). It would take more time and not present a terribly clear picture to compare them to much larger companies like Blackrock (BLK) or Brookfield Asset Management (BAM) or to other “boutique” asset managers like Affiliated Managers Group (AMG) or the various small investment firms in the natural resources space.

And, well, that’s about all I can tell you on this sunny Monday morning — Ferris is very likely teasing Sprott, and my first pass through on their information indicates that it’s an interesting asset management company that is in the midst of some significant change. I wouldn’t put much hope in the blockchain-related investment or in the chance of making 20X returns on the stock anytime soon, but it’s at least a decent company that is becoming more focused on what it’s good at — and that is probably a good thing. If we get another natural resources bull market, or particularly some huge surges in gold and silver prices, then the stock could do extremely well in pretty short order like it did in 2010 and 2011 — if not, then Sprott’s stock chart will likely look a bit more muted.

In the most recent quarter their performance dropped a bit, mostly because of lower assets under management in the exchange traded products (which make up roughly 80% of the business) — particularly the Physical Trusts (their funds that are backed directly by gold or silver). That’s the primary driver of fees — if there’s more interest from investors in buying more shares of exchange-traded gold, then those funds get larger and the fees grow… if there’s less interest, the funds shrink and the fees are smaller.

They do other things, too, like lending to resource companies and running other investment funds and limited partnerships, but the exchange-traded fees are likely to be the big driver, and the steadiest part of the business, if you’re looking for future growth. The dividend is still roughly 4%, but as of the last quarter the dividend wasn’t covered by earnings — they do still have plenty of cash to cover that dividend if they wish to, but it would be more comfortable if they could pay the dividend out of after-tax earnings and still have a little cushion… which, like most of the rest of the business, probably depends more on gold and silver prices than anything else. And gold, as you’ve probably noticed, is having a bad summer — the price is down another 5% just since the end of the second quarter (silver, as is typical, is moving more sharply — down about 9% since the end of June).

So with that, dear friends, I’ll leave you to your own research and cogitation — do you see a rosy picture for Sprott as it collects fees on gold and silver ETFs and funds natural resources companies? Think it will surge higher, or remain in the doldrums for longer? Excited about that 4% dividend or their recent restructuring and increased focus on the ETF business? Let us know with a comment below.

Disclosure: I own shares of Altius Minerals. I am not invested in any of the other companies mentioned above, and will not trade in any covered stock for at least three days per Stock Gumshoe’s trading rules.

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158 Comments on "“If I had to pick one stock…. World’s No. 1 Stock When Gold Booms” teased by Dan Ferris"

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hedy1234
Guest
0

$Sprott Inc.

For all the folks bashing Ferris/Stansberry note that Sprott hit 52 week high this week!!

No predictions but off to a good start.

thesongfactory
Irregular
4

~4 months past the last few comments, and I just got the Ferris teaser. How ’bout now?

hedy1234
Irregular
1459

Up 25% since January despite gold price much lower. Not bad.

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Jerry Filardi
Guest
0

You must be too young not to realize that Stansberry is a trickster. He probably made his “20 bagger” by buying at $.01 and selling at $.20 after touting the stock and selling to speculators. Oh, the power of the pen!

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brascan
Guest
0
If one leaves all the get-rich-quick statements on the promo email and focus on the fundamentals (and believes that Ferris is a patient guy with a long-term investing horizon), then the current price ($2.98) should be even more enticing and is a rewind to Jan 2018. I do not think I am going to jump right now, as I am afraid of trying to catch a falling knife (metals have been going consistently down for several weeks, right?), but FWIW I think I will put this and a few other tickers mentioned in this discussion on the watchlist to jump… Read more »
bludolphint
Irregular
149
I subscribed to Dan Ferris’ cheaper newsletter for $50/year. Unfortunately I have heard that comment about the best stock pick of his career, and that he would put everything he has into this 1 stock. Does he actually believe this stuff? That was quite a few years ago so I guess he figures that his readers don’t remember what he said before. It sounded exactly like what Travis reported and I am sure I heard it a couple of times over the years as he bounced back and forth in different newsletters. Well enough of that rant. I really like… Read more »
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Horation Hears a Who
Guest
0

The ticker symbol for this company is SPOXF, and the name is Sprott, Inc. My brother can’t stand that name so he calls it Spacely Sprockets.

Paul
Guest
0

I want to buy shares in Spacely Sprokets, Cogswell Cogs, Yoyodyne, and TPC (The Phone Company). But my broker laughs too hard to even answer me.

laura
Guest
0

Get rid of your broker he is costing you a lot of money in investments

Clfrun51
Guest
0

When it comes to conservative investments, never bet against Dan Ferris…that has been my experience to date.

yukonjack
Guest
0
“When gold blooms”…perhaps in a few years. Why do I need to spend money on subscriptions when I can buy CVSI 10 months ago below .20 cents and it went over $9 today, about a 4500% gain? None of theses overpriced gurus had a clue. You can find good ideas with your own research, but most people are lazy and want profits handed to them on a silver platter. This is why these mostly useless subscriptions and mostly empty promises sell like hotcakes. Let me know when PHYS or PSLV make 4500% gains in less than a year and then… Read more »
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jeremiahberndt
Irregular
62

Congrats

JayBee
Guest
0

Dear Yukon Cornelius,

Do you remember those old TV commercials, where a woman dressed as Mother Nature says, “It’s not good to fool Mother Nature.”? Well, it’s also not good to gloat about your stock picking exploits. According to this press release, CVSI could be a possible Pump and Dump. I hope that you kept your investment small. https://www.marketwatch.com/press-release/securities-class-action-filed-against-cv-sciences-inc-cvsi-by-block-leviton-llp-investors-are-encouraged-to-contact-the-firm-2018-08-24

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Yoda
Guest
0

The highest CVSI has been this year is 6.6!

KRIS SCHADE
Guest
0

I own SRHID, bought as a”Sprott trophy asset” in 09. They company has “reorganized” twice now after introducing their first dividend. Got me a it gun shy, still trying to figure out how this turns out what I already got myself into.

catherine
Irregular
109

$ SRHIF Sprott Resource Holdings “Endured” a 20:1 reverse split earlier this month, and TDAmeritrade isn’t keeping up with the current price, but it’s going down. Wondering if this is basically the same as your SRHID?

hedy1234
Irregular
1459

Catherine these are not same as Sprott Inc. which is a royalty company.

Sprott inc. is not a mining co. owns no mines, no capital investment in equipment, etc.

It simply buys future income streams from the mines.

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Sargam
Guest
0

Very poor liquidity and very volatile. Am having a hard time understanding Dan Ferris’s recommendation as he has a reputation for integrity. Looks like the boss put the screws to him on this one. Stansberry is very close to Sprott, they promote each other. Maybe that’s why Ferris says “one time offer,” its his best compromise.

hedy1234
Guest
0

Sargam

1. Liquidity is fine. 800,000 shares traded on US exchange. Even more on Toronto exchange.

2. Of course a $2.00 stock is volatile. That is not surprising is it?

3. If you want to find a potential 20 bagger, you won’t find it when its $50. per share. Right?

You are making a lot of assumptions and attacking someones integrity. Do you have any facts or is this just your opinion? Just because you have strong opinions doesn’t mean it is true.

Ferris is a deep value investor. It is very challenging to find deep values after a ten year bull market.

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catherine
Irregular
109

Re: Sprott investments
Thanks, hedy1234, for the clarification. I do own SPOXF, and am long on other Ferris recommendations, but less enthusiastic about this one for some reason.

Bill
Guest
0

I own some as well and think if the precious metals has a good run, so will SPOXF. Does anyone know where the 20 times starts?

element47
Guest
0

If it is such a super stock, why aren’t any of the insiders buying?

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Joephlay
Guest
0

That is why they are called “insiders”

frank camarda
Guest
0

I would like to know about andy wyatt pushing marijuana does anybody have any info that we could use thank you guys.

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steveflick
Irregular
312

suggest use Search field here at Stock Gumshoe, and today’s Aug 22 article by Stock Gumshoe.

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lesdoyle
Irregular
2

I agree with “Clfrun51”.

jazzman777
Guest
0

Stansberry… NO WAY!

cyoungjr
Irregular
0

Travis:. Any idea what company the Oxford Club is touting in reference to the $3.00 stock you can retire on? This is in reference to the real estate specialist that appears in the International Retire Overseas newsletter.

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Walter Caldwell
Guest
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In January 2014 I bought Altius at $13.53 which Ferris was touting then as the 1 stock he would buy(sound familiar?)Today it was trading at $9.70

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Jamie Marcum
Guest
0

I have never subscribed to Stansberry but do listen to his podcasts. It seems to me that he, and likely his company, is betting on the 2020 presidential election going way to the left with Kamala Harris or someone of her ilk. If that comes true, we could see a spike in companies like Sprott if our governement slides to the socialist side.

Clark
Guest
0

I like how the stock has broken a downtrend line. I bought a small portion.

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Joe Esty
Guest
0

The copy never said 100X was for the jackpot winner. The copy says “It’s a ‘lottery ticket’ that could pay out 100x.” You interjected “jackpot winner.” You interjected a strawman.

BTW, the vast majority of lottery-winners pay 2X-to-5X purchase price. If the investment produces a 100X return, that’s a good return for an investment and a lottery ticket.

As for Ferris’ investment recommendation returning 100X for any individual investor (as opposed to an ex-post calculation), I’ll take the opposite bet.

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Ron D.
Guest
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For what it’s worth, Jim Rickards was recommending sprott months ago and I saw it somewhere else but don’t remember who exactly. Price is Right for a small speculative play I think, but not ready to treat it like the best EVER.

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4lllls
Guest
0

Personally I think Rickards is a jerk. Most of his spiel is about all his contacts and how great he is. If hes in bed with the govt then i surely dont trust him. Why would a corrupt govt go to him for advice? Stay away.

catherine
Irregular
109

$SPOXF I don’t recall when Rickards was recommending Sprott, but within the last month he suggested selling half, and “taking our profits”. There was also the caution not to sell below $2.24, or you’d just be giving it away…. Once Ferris recommended it, there was a small bump.

hedy1234
Irregular
1459

Catherine-Ferris made his recommendation in January….

JayBee
Guest
0

In one of the ads that I have seen running lately, Ferris says something like, “It has fallen almost back down to my buy up to price.” I still don’t understand that line of reasoning. He’s saying how it could double or triple any day now, and over time could become a 20-bagger, yet he still doesn’t want you to buy it for more than $2.50 (USD) per share. Why?

hedy1234
Irregular
1459

JB

The short answer is that above a certain price, it would no longer be an extreme value. Ferris is not a growth stock or momentum stock picker and in his view, the best potential is to buy up to a specific price.

The later you buy in, the higher the likelihood it will drop back and cause you a loss.

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Graham Coleman
Guest
0

Aussie G
Uncle Porter Stansberry was telling his followers some years back that “The End of America” was nigh and charging $$ for the info. He also put forward Sandstorm Gold -another Royalty mob around the same time as I cancelled the subscription https://markets.businessinsider.com/stocks/sand-stock with no dividends to date!
Together with the Godfather Bill Bonner and Jim Rickards and your $$ the “Three Amigos” seem to be having a great time spruiking “The Yellow Brick Road”.

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ih8aloss
Member
2
If I had to pick one stock…it would be QTMM or Quantum Materials Corp. with their QD uses being so ubiquitous, unlike gold. For starters it is paving the way for the next generation of display and lighting applications. Time to really consider if you want to be involved at 4 CENTS A SHARE, YES – $.04 or on the side lines watching. The other option is to wait, however you have to consider the percentage return you will have the longer you wait, If you “See The Light” you have your answer! It’s only the beginning now! “The timeline… Read more »
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John
Guest
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This is what a pump scammer looks like.

bcantlie
Irregular
1

Sprott has a high management fee.
BC

hedy1234
Irregular
1459

bcantlie-when you own a piece of the company through stock ownership, fees are part of your income. This is a good thing.

The stockholders pay NO fees. The fees are paid by folks who buy their products.

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edgardias1
Irregular
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Hi Travis, this SPOXF analysis Is identical to the one from 2/2/2018 – word for word. Is there a way to filter articles that are reruns of previously published articles?. Thanks

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