Financial Forecast Short Term Update

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Steven Evans
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Steven Evans
February 1, 2009 4:11 am

This review will cover as one package the Elliot Wave International’s three packages, Short-Term Update, Financial Forecast, and Elliot Wave Theorist. The reason is that just buying the Short Term Update (at $39/month) is like looking up close at a Monet Painting (e.g., London. The Waterloo Bridge). You see every stroke and line but can’t really tell what the big picture is all about, while the Financial Forecast gives you the big picture, but you will miss far too much of what this service has to provide if you are just getting commentary once a month. However if you buy the Short Term Update and just one of the others, you get all three for the same in their bundled price — so you might as well think of it as $59 (bundled price) for one package that comes in three parts. So just what is this package?

The answer to that requires some commentary. The Elliot Wave Theory essentially says that all the commentary you get from all the talking heads on Wall Street is just that — made-up drivel that tells you little. Rather, the market is not a rational reaction to the daily economic news but is driven by an overall social mood (positive to negative), reflected in a subsequent herding behavior, and is essentially fractal (any part is similar to the larger part at any size you select). The market moves in determined and predictable waves, and if you properly identify the direction and status of the wave, you will have a very good picture of the ongoing trend. The Short Term Update gives you this “local” view of the trend, although they do show it in context of the Big Picture, but the other two publications focus on the Big Picture to be sure you understand the overall market direction. Thus this service is offering a compass to ascertain the ongoing direction of the market, both short term and long.

Although the service may seem initially like a kind of technical charting analysis, it differs significantly from this by being grounded on an underlying theory about how human behavior operates and postulates an underlying wave theory that structures all the ongoing market moves. Virtually without exception, there are no individual stock recommendations whatsoever. It is a compass on where the market is in its cycle, and as a result, where it is likely going. It is actually an order of magnitude more subtle and sophisticated than merely technical charting since it operates with what can be called “a normative theory;” that it, it both describes and explains the markets ongoing moves through these built-in wave cycles being reflected, daily, weekly, monthly, yearly, and even over centuries.

With all that being said, so what use is it? I can tell you that it has bailed my fat out of the fire for more than two years now — with its compass reading on where the market is and where it is going. For example, gold was predicted to move up (so I profited both with an ETF and specific gold miners I obtained from other regular stock-recommending sites), and as gold reached about $1000/ounce, the Elliot Wave analysis indicated we were through. I sold around $950 using the Short Term Update, and rode gold back down. Using their Big Picture, I turned bearish at the end of 2007 although they called the actual top within a month of it, and the service has served me in good stead all these many months. If you had embraced the Elliot Wave compass, you could easily have avoided most of the bite of the bear. So I am a very happy camper.

The reason for this long review is that you can see that this service is a bit more cerebral than others, and does not, like most others, itemize a good stock buy this week or a good short. However, now that there are ETF’s, I can in fact short the DOW or S&P or go long on gold, etc. by connecting my purchases of ETF’s with the trends. I should note they have a lot of specialty additional services if you want to focus on commodities, for example, and other areas. Then you could trade specific ones since they track wheat, corn, oil, etc. In my opinion, this service which for my tight budget is somewhat expensive ($59/month) is extremely valuable, gives me what I think is a very good, tight, and remarkable accurate handle on where the overall market is going and where it is likely to go, and then when I couple that with either ETF’s or some individual stock recommendations (for example, Travis’ sleuthing brings us specific stocks that can be good insights), I have been doing utterly embarrassingly well for some time. I will keep with them.

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troppo32
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troppo32
February 7, 2009 6:49 pm

What a joke – “Steve Evans” reviews three of Robert Prechters offerings and uses the same commentary for all three. This smacks of a marketing flack shilling his pubs and is not something I would expect from Stock Gumshoe.

I hope they screen the reviews to keep them honest.

And, yes, I will post this on all three “reviews”.

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kelly russell
Irregular
February 14, 2009 9:49 am

Hello all ! I’m just adding a “ditto” for Steven Evans’ descriptions of the ElliottWave offerings ( well done enough that I’ve nothing to add to give you a better picture of what the services do or what potential value they have).
To “Troppo32” – read Steven’s descriptions again. He’s not “shortcutting” by reviewing all three as a “package” – they offer the broadest perspective as a group, though if you only had an interest in a very specific time frame you might want to pick only one of the bunch.
I’ve been most impressed with the perspective that this body of work offers- I’ll keep subscribing to their “bundle” for the forseeable future.

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jbb
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jbb
March 23, 2009 8:32 am