“This $4 Gold Stock … Will at Least Triple” John Doody

By Travis Johnson, Stock Gumshoe, February 2, 2009

The folks at Stansberry & Associates have apparently made a deal with John Doody, who has for many years written a well-respected stock advisory service on gold miners. They’ve apparently gotten him to agree to a trial period for new subscribers and reduce his price a little bit — I imagine that he’s probably going to get a lot of new subscribes out of this marketing push, which apparently comes with a deadline of 4pm today for the Stansberry deal. Who knows, maybe this will be the beginning of a beautiful Stansberry/Doody friendship and we’ll start seeing Gold Stock Analyst teaser ads everywhere we turn.

I’m never one to tell you not to to take a free trial of something, and I’ve found John Doody’s stuff interesting (if sometimes overwhelmingly complex) when I’ve had a chance to take a quick look at it (I don’t subscribe, of course, but he makes occasional sample issues available, and talks to the press with some frequency).

But I know lots of you don’t want to subscribe to newsletters or couldn’t justify $495 to find out about some more gold mining stocks — and the letter from S&A tells us that Doody is recommending one top buy right now … so can the mighty Gumshoe figure out what that might be?

Let’s see …

To give you a little context, John Doody’s newsletter (Gold Stock Analyst) publishes analysis, sometimes very technical analysis, of gold (and sometimes silver) mining companies, and, as the ad letter describes, it publishes a “top ten” list of mining stocks each month that essentially gets tracked like any newsletter portfolio or mutual fund.

The Stansberry ad tells us that the Top Ten list from Doody has returned 390% since the beginning of the decade (2000, I assume). That’s obviously pretty good, and broadly in line with the fact that people generally tell us that gold mining stocks tend to go up at two or three time the rate of gold prices (ie, if gold goes up 1%, mining stocks go up 2-3% — the same happens on the downside, not surprisingly). Gold since 2000 has gone up something like 200% or so from about $300 an ounce. And after a quick glance at the records of most of the precious metals mutual funds, that reported return from Doody certainly outpaces most of them, though of course it’s also a significantly more concentrated portfolio than most.

Doody’s methodology currently tells us that gold miners are currently trading as if gold was priced at about $715 an ounce, so with the current $900 or so per ounce price perhaps there’s some cushion in the prices, too … we’ll see.

But the tease, of course, is that there’s a $4 gold stock that is at the top of his list right now. So what is it?

Well, to get to that we first have to go through a bit of teasing about something called a “43-101 Feasibility Document.” This time around they didn’t make up a number, at least, this is real — National Instrument 43-101 is a Canadian guideline for the disclosure of technical information about mining projects, so you’ll often see comments about reserves, or official resource reports or updated economic production models, note that they are “NI 43-101 compliant” or some such language. I don’t know much about this, but the rules were put into place to make sure that companies didn’t flat-out lie about their geological results and their reserves (after a big scandal involving Bre-X back in the mid-1990s).

If you’d like to get an idea of what 43-101s look like, the term is just used as shorthand for technical report filings that Canadian mining companies make with Sedar (their version of Edgar, a public filings database for publicly traded companies). You can search for any company name and restrict your search to just their 43-101 technical documents if you like. They are not magic, of course, and the fact that a filing is a 43-101 does not mean it’s a good or promising filing, just that it’s an official and verified mineral resource or similar report. Sedar.com is where you start if you want to search for company filings.

So when you talk about a company’s 43-101 “feasibility documents” you’re probably talking about a company’s announcements of a discovery, or follow-up announcements about mine exploration and reserves calculations. There may well be a particular kind of 43-101 filing that matters to him, but if so it’s beyond my ken.

How does that play into this investment thesis? Apparently, Doody has identified a pattern whereby companies that discover gold see a huge boost in their share price, but then the shares tail off for a long period of time (many years, usually) as those early investors lose interest. After all, after discovering a gold deposit it can take years and years and years before they actually fully evaluate the reserves, and even longer before they’re ready to begin even the first stages of mining. So at some point in there Doody has identified a trigger where he believes the stock should shoot up.

As the ad puts it:

“In other words, to successfully pick the r