Hedgeye

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Dan
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Dan
March 7, 2019 8:55 pm

I subscribed to Hedgeye’s “Macro Show” in late December 2018. Between then and now(early March 2019) the stock market has rallied almost non-stop. And this WHOLE time Hedgeye has advised me to NOT invest in the S&P 500 rally, and SHORT many indexes including industrials, which are up over 15% YTD! Not good advice.

Subscribers would write in to the Macro Show asking Keith about the massive rally. “I understand you’re saying that the S&P 500 is in a bearish trend, but should I buy SPY?” Keith would say something like, “FINE. Just… go ahead BUY it at the highs!” Then, of course, it kept going higher.

Risk Ranges(RR) are in the Macro Show. The Risk Ranges are the buy price and sell price for gold, the REIT index, copper, bonds etc. You are told to buy low and sell high. I invested using the RR for various securities. Here’s what happened. When you buy the low end of the range, many times, the low end of the range continues to go LOWER. I use stop loss orders, of course. But the losses add up! Hedgeye Risk Ranges are unreliable.

I made a little money and lost a little money using the Hedgeye Risk Ranges. They were really small bets because they were so sector specific. Keith McCullough was advising gold ETFs, the REIT Index, Utilities and Treasuries. That’s it. So, you’re waiting for WEEKS for these few indexes to drop to the low end of the Hedgeye Risk Range. I bought at the low end of the RR every time. Half the time it worked and the other half it didn’t. It was a waste of time and a huge loss of opportunity compared to buying something diversified like SPY.

Keith McCullough, the owner of Hedgeye, often says, “Who else you gonna’ listen to, huh?” If I had NEVER listened to the guy at all I’d be ahead of where I am now!

“Most people can’t time the market, but I CAN!” is something Keith McCullough says sometimes. However, MANY of his predictions have been wrong.

Keith McCullough has been EXTREMELY limited in recommending stock sectors. For example, for all of Jan. and Feb. 2019 he’s been advising to buy gold ETFs, REITS, and utilities. No other stock sectors! He’s been against EVERY other stock sector even though the WHOLE stock market has rallied. That’s very impractical.

BONDS: Wed. the top of the Hedgeye RR for the 10 yr. yield was 2.71%. The 10 yr. yield got up to 2.695% that day, and Keith was telling subscribers to buy bonds. Thurs. top end of the RR was still 2.71%, and the yield shot past it to 2.724%. Keith was saying that day was “REALLY” the time to buy bonds! I bought right there, above the top of the RR for the 10 year yield. Friday the yield spiked to 2.764% and all my positions stopped out at a loss!!! Not only that, but ALL of those bond ETFs continued to lose money AFTER they stopped out. So, no, I shouldn’t have “just been a little more patient”.

The Hedgeye Risk Ranges are unreliable!!

Q&A: A subscriber wrote in to the Macro Show before the bond market TANKED and asked, “Keith, the yield’s gone up to 2.71%. MY GOODNESS, should I SELL all my bonds?” And Keith said something like, “This is when you BUY bonds. You can’t invest with your emotions. If you’re going to sell your bonds now then just cancel your subscription!” Telling the subscriber to sell his bonds and cancel his subscription was unintentionally the best advice Keith McCullough gave during the WHOLE show.

GOLD: The low end of the Hedgeye RR for gold was $1320. The price of gold dropped right through that to $1294, and then down to $1283. I bought gold at the low end of the Hedgeye RR, but it lost money. It didn’t work. It stopped out at a loss.

Hedgeye Risk Ranges are unreliable, and their investment advice has been way off the mark for the last 10 weeks.

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