“I’m going to make a $1.95 million bet.
“You see, over the next few minutes, I’m going to show you a simple pattern I believe will allow you to achieve two incredible feats…
“You could capture a series of 164.68% windfalls, and…
“You will, with 100% certainty, only buy stocks that are going up.
“At its core, all you have to do is just grab regular, ‘boring’ shares of stock when you see this X…
“And sell them when you see it again.”
That’s the lead-in to the pitch for Money Morning’s “X-Pattern” trading idea — Keith Fitz-Gerald says he has found a “simple pattern” that will let you capture a series of windfalls and “with 100% certainty” only buy stocks that are going up. Pretty strong words. And he’s using them to sell a trading service that he calls High Velocity Profits.
And I’m not going to explain the X-pattern in detail for you here — I’m not a chart-trading expert, it looks like he’s using (at least in part) something called the Aroon indicator, which is a trend indicator that you can see described here or here,it basically measures the days since a high (or low) price was hit and gives buy (or sell) indicators when the “days since a high” indicator crosses over (or under) the “days since a low” indicator.
If you see “AROON 25” it means they’re using 25 days as the timeframe — so a stock would be at 100 on that indicator if it just hit a 25-day high (or low) price, or at 0 if it has been below the 25-day high (or above the low) for 25 days. For a lot of stocks, these lines will cross frequently — for some that are consistently rising or falling, they might not cross in a year or more.
Trend-following has certainly led to lots of huge gains over the years, particularly for those who can buy on the way up and sell after it starts to go down and do so consistently over time, and there are hundreds of indicators and strategies that trend-following chartists use, and variations on all of them (what time period you use, what but it’s far from being my strength or area of interest. I don’t know whether the AROON indicator (or oscillator, which visualizes the data differently) will work better than any other charting indicators at measuring the strength or direction of a trend.
So why do I mention it today? Because today I saw an ad from Keith Fitz-Gerald that said he just had a new indicator triggered last week, a new “X-pattern” on a stock that you should buy. So that I can sniff out for you, and we therefore get an actual stock to talk about and, for those who want to test this “X-pattern”, an example to consider.
Here’s how he put it in the email:
“Below is a stock chart for a company based out of Rochester, NY.
“As you can see, over the past few weeks it has fluctuated wildly.
“However, I believe I know exactly where this stock is going next – and that you can make a whole lot of money from it.
“In fact, I’m so confident that I’m putting $1.95 million on the line.
“You may think I’m crazy for doing this.
“But I’m not. You see, my team has spent the last six months investigating a single pattern that has been appearing alongside two to three stocks a month… every month… going all the way back to the bursting of the dot-com bubble, through the recession, all the way up to today.
“And it was spotted with the company in this chart.
“This same pattern has been detected with some of the market’s most exceptional windfalls, like 7,476% on Monster Beverage, 2,941% on Terra Nitrogen, 2,566% on Kingold Jewelry, and 1,478% on Radcom.”
I didn’t copy the chart, but I did check it to confirm — the stock he’s talking about here is Paychex (PAYX). The stock chart is an exact match, and it is a Rochester company. The AROON indicator for PAYX may have crossed on the bullish side over the last couple days, but if so that would mean you’re using a very short-term version of the indicator (like 15 days or so) — and if that’s what you’re using, then the up/down “X” of the crossing indicator would have happened a dozen times or so in the last six months. If you’re using a longer-term AROON indicator, like 25 days (which most of the chart systems default to) or longer, then PAYX has been in a positive trend on AROON for a month or more after doing a bit of back-and-forth crossover in January and early February.
So what does that mean? I have no idea. PAYX is at a 10-year high — so it doesn’t take a wizard to note that the trend is positive, but it might take an expert technical trader to get you in and out of bumps up and down over the next couple years. PAYX is, like its larger rival ADP, quite expensive and priced at a stiff premium to its growth rate. This is an HR outsourcing company, in case the name is new to you — they handle benefits outsourcing, HR, and payroll processing, particularly for small to midsize businesses who might not have big HR/Personnel departments. What will drive PAYX is the same thing that will drive ADP, broadly speaking: Employment and job creation, labor-law complexity, and short-term interest rates.
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To simplify: If employment rises, they’ll collect more fee income for running payroll for their customers… if it becomes more complicated to deal with payroll laws and regulations (as with health insurance handling and tax law), they’ll get more new customers who want to outsource some of that headache… and if short-term interest rates rise, they’ll earn much more money on the brief window of “float” that they get to hold during the paycheck-generating process. (Like ADP, they collect money from the employer a day or two before it’s actually sent to the account of the employee or printed on a check, and earn some return on that money — or at least they did, when there was any money to be earned on very-short-term interest rates… even with low rates, though, that fund is more valuable than it might seem, because, like Warren Buffett’s famed insurance float, it refills itself every day with new employer money even as it disburses itself to the employees so you can, if you wish, consider it more of a steady asset to earn on than a liability to pay out. Like a dammed pond — it lets water out through the sluice every day and new water comes in every day, but the pond’s depth usually is pretty reliably within an expected range).
So with employment trends certainly improving (more people working), and with short-term interest rates widely expected to rise, there’s quite a bit of optimism baked into PAYX. Maybe that’s as it should be, I can’t claim to have have researched the company thoroughly — the twice-as-big ADP is similarly valued at about 30 times earnings (and is at all-time highs), but PAYX is generally more profitable (it’s a less complex company, they don’t offer as many different services even though both are huge in payroll processing)… and both are expected to grow earnings at a 8-10% annual clip, which is phenomenal for a $20-40 billion company but not that exciting for a company valued at 30 times earnings. They’re also both being bought as “dividend growth” stocks — PAYX has the somewhat higher yield (3% versus 2.25%) and the less-perfect record of dividend growth (PAYX has paused their growth a few times and is a younger company, ADP has raised the dividend every year for 40 years now).
And yes, Paychex (PAYX) and ADP (ADP) have been generally stronger bets for far longer than the “upstart” HR outsourcing/payroll companies that have come public more recently, particularly those who use the word “cloud” in every other paragraph like Paycom (PAYC) and Workday (WDAY). I don’t know if that will continue or not, but so far investors have generally been better-rewarded by the established firms that are actually profitable.
We’ll open the week with that — what do you think? Is PAYX a buy either because it’s in a strong and positive trend or because you like the business? Have any interest in or expertise with the AROON indicator or other charting tools Fitz-Gerald might be using to identify his “X-Pattern” stocks? Let us know with a comment below…
(Our readers had some discussion of this “X-Pattern” a few weeks ago when it was first touted by Money Map, so I’ve appended that discussion they had to the end of this article to get you started. Enjoy!)
This is my first visit to this website. This information that Keith describes in is video is based in the AROON indicator. If you have stocks that you like, you can apply this indicator free of cost on stockcharts.com. Simply enter the stock symbol and select AROON from among the many indicators that they provide and you will be able to obtain the AROON based chart.
Marc
But you also have to know what the “F score” of the stock is, and exactly how to apply or use this AROON indicator. Can you explain that to a person who needs to be told and showed?
I neglected to reply to the second part of your question, (exactly how to apply or use this AROON indicator). I will attempt to do this. Once you have determined that you are interested in a stock, you can bring up the chart on stockcharts.com or on your preferred charting platform. All of Keith’s recommendations are based on the weekly charts, so you have to select the weekly option. You then go to the indicator section of the chart and select the AROON indicator and update the chart. The AROON indicator will appear above the chart and from there you can observe crossing of the red and green graphs for the bullish and bearish indications. On word on stockcharts.com. It is difficult to track a large number of stocks unless you are a subscriber. If you are then you are allowed store and retrieve as many sets of stocks as you may wish to track on a regular basis, as well as indices and indicators. You can also mark- up stored charts with trend lines, comments, etc. As a subscriber you also receive a newsletter and can see videos with the latest analysis from the site. The site contains many tutorials on charting as well as a glossary of terms. The cost is reasonable and depends on the functionality that you may wish to purchase. I am quite satisfied with the site. I believe that I pay around $260 for my yearly subscription. If you decide to use this site, I will be happy to provide additional support, although the site has plenty to support the learning process.
Hello – Thank you for your comment. I would like to talk with you directly if possible. I was using Forex trading and was show how to manipulate the chart so it only shows red/green and when the red crossed the green you would buy/sell accordingly. This was done with monetary pairs – but I have a few questions with regards to stock trading. I would be happy to compensate you for your time. Please take this seriously as this is not a scam and I have 20 years of IT experience so I can understand the programs very well (such as MetaTrader for Forex). If you can help me get started I have zero problem paying it forward.. my email is secureitinc at gmail dot- com . Thank you ahead of time !
Great information you supplied, I am curious as to your success and also if you have any other patters that indicate a direction. I am a option type person and follow Mathew at Top Gun Options Service and by that I mean about 2 or 3 times a year I will get his service for a month. M arc I also use Stock Carts .com and a couple other chart services and am always interested in what one thinks benefits them over the different services. Would you mind letting me know why you use Stock Charts verses other?
Thanks
William
no, you only explained how to use the charting technology, but provided ZERO judgement clarification.
As a subscriber, were you told how to adjust aroon’s periods to match uptrends or downtrends? what period is used in weekly charts?
So, what is the F score?
John, what IS the “F score”??? and…where do I find it on the company’s site???…or do I need to go elsewhere to find it???…is it “THAT” difficult to explain???…is there a book or other direction, like a web site, you could recommend???…
Susan I just stumbled upon this X stuff spiel. It feels like its obviously a sales pitch. Trying to make u interested and then break it on you that you have to pay for something. People dont write in this style unless they are trying to sell something.- to the website: Its not nice to be so obfuscatory in your marketing strategy, guys. Tell you what, I can make your marketing more lucrative, and I’m not going to tell you now, but if you give me just a small consulting fee 🙂 then I think that we could make a better money making team than this current sitiation you have yourselves in, just being slimy salesmen and all.
How much will you charge? I am willing to give out advice for free and can assure you it is worth every penny of it.
Susan, I just stumbled in from Keith’s site (Money Map Press) about his “X” pattern, and was checking over here. Anyway about the “F” score. I’ll copy some text (Below) from the site. I guess just Google the guys name below and you can find more on “F” score.
And to all yes Keith is asking “Just” $1995.00 To learn the secrete your self.
I’m still in his 30 day trial period for money map press.com, and so far I have to admit it’s not bad. What I mean is I’ve came over here and back checked a few of his earlier touts, and claims and I’ve found that 4 of the 5 I was able to check all were pretty good gainers. I have actually opened 2 small positions he has recommended. We’ll see. His membership to this is just $ 99 bucks. 30 days to cancel. I doubt I will. Very few of his emails are up sells. But yes they are there. Just in case anyone was wondering what’s happening over there at Money map.
About “F” score
“It was created by an accountant from the University of Chicago and Stanford.
His name is Joseph Piotroski.
And his F-Score is an incredibly precise metric for uncovering public companies whose share prices are susceptible to enormous profit spikes.”
When calibrating the caliber of a stock’s F-Score, Piotroski compares a company’s current financial health to where it was the previous year by assigning one point for each of the following nine financial milestones that have been reached:
A rise in net income.
A rise in operating cash flow.
A rise in return on assets.
A rise in working capital.
A rise in gross margin.
Operating cash flow that is greater than the company’s net income.
Its ratio of long-term debt to assets has fallen.
Its growth rate of sales exceeds that of asset acquisition.
The company has not diluted the value of its stock by issuing more new shares to the public than it bought back.”
yes, it is more frippery for money
Susan, the “F-score” generally refers to the “Piotriski F-Score”, which is an indicator of financial health that’s based on 9 accounting factors. It is from a paper by a professor named Joseph Piotroski. It’s nothing proprietary, and if there aren’t any websites that display it for free (i’m not sure off the top of my head), it can quite painlessly be calculated for a given stock from freely available data. I hope that helps.
I don’t think the f score has any great impact, other than keeping you away from companies that are unsound. The indicator is a standard indicator that is readily available
Are you new to the interweb? The etiquette here insists you provide some linkage or better information than vagaries especially if you have solved a problem in a thread.
I agree … and my apologies for not reading your comment first before posting mine! You said it first….
It is interesting that they add the “F Score” to their process. Determining the “F Score” on your own requires some effort. One way to do it is to use the Value Line Investment Survey (VLIS), which is generally available in public libraries. It contains data going back many years and with some effort you can determine the F score. However, you would need to know which stocks to investigate. For this one would need a stock selection process. The Value Line investment Survey, does this in a way because of its ranking of stocks relative to their timing and their risk. One could look at the most timely ones, consistent with one’s risk tolerance and extract the data needed for ”F score” determination. It seems to me that the VLIS has done quite a bit of the work by reducing the desirability of purchasing the stock to their timing and risk numbers. I just cannot believe that the only stocks worth purchasing are the stocks in Keith’s Watch List.
This is my take on the situation.
Marc
Marc- I believe I read someplace that the starting point before going through the F Score exercise is the lowest 20% of stocks of price to book value. that seems to make sense, as the object is to find value stocks (mostly among small cap stocks, as the market is going to be a lot more efficient with large caps). Your thoughts?
I would be unable to answer this question with a great deal of authority. I trade mostly based on technical analysis (TA). I do not ignore the fundamentals, but once it is established the the fundamentals are in order, then I trade on the basis of TA. However, I searched for the relative importance of book value and found the following link at the Investopedia website, which expounds on book value and its pros an cons as a tool for determining the value of a stock. You may find it to be of interest.
http://www.investopedia.com/articles/fundamental/03/112603.asp
Marc
Marc are you still reading on this site, if so I have a question. Today is dec 3 2016 let me know if you see this, I will be checking daily thankyou steve
You can see the F score of any company on gurufocus.com. No need to calculate.
Thanks guys for all your help here. Now how do I put the aroon indicator together
with the F score?
Instead of the f score, modify the settings. They have suggested using 100 periods. Start with that. Then tweak it and backrest on several charts.
But remember it is only an indicator
I would love to understand how to find F score. I have visited this site, but do not see where I can find these scores already calculated. Can you help?
go to gurufocus.com, enter the ticker symbol in the search window and look at the financial strength indicators.
Gurufocus is great, very good for quickly finding all fundamentals you will ever need
thank you.
why are you posting as a guest?
Today in repitching the whole hour long X-Factor (my term) video the email seemed to vaguely recommend CHLN Which just had a nice bounce, 2.90 Wed am, 3.69 Thurs am, peaked at 5.69 today now in the 4’s, but he didn’t say if the magical ex had been seen recently for this stock instead leading into the same usual video and picture and I didn’t even look at pricing this time.
I did finally get in on this “join for free for three months pay us $19 for this report” routine and got some postal mail from them. There’s about half a dozen advisers – all of them send you email about once a day, most of them recently trying to get you to buy something that “Shah” recommends. This chln is the closest thing to an actual recommendation of a stock in 3 weeks
I get the same e-mails. So Shah recommends a stock with an average daily trading volume of 11,000 shares and a $2 price to tens of thousands of people and it goes up? What does that sound like to you?
X pattern – which 2 lines. Red is =? Green=?. We cannot know from any chart pattern. Any one kind will those 2 lines that meet please?
Its a standard indicator, called the a room, simply set it up and backtest
Folks !
All I could see discussing about Fees & if successful or not. I feel all the talents are here who are well versed & experienced. Could you not find when the X is formed following which (certainly will be on the net) chart we may get X patterns? When X is formed which 2 signals meet? (Red=? & Green=?). Then may be we may find a result. Please do that research & put your valuable feedback for all’s benefits. Thanks & appreciate!
They actually tell you the formula in the email, its the aroon indicator, simply modify the settings and backtest
we need an abbreviation PAD for pump & dump
is this company legit ?? is it a scam ?? should I invest time & money into this business ??
This SEC filing from CHLN on Nov 2 announces they are having a special meeting in China to vote to delist this stock.
Hello, All. Fascinating Discussion.
This is an indicator I could grow to love.
May I suggest P&D for Pump & Dump?
OK, so I stupidly bit on this guy’s scrod and so far, have not had one winner in his stable of recommendations. He also recommends a 25% stop loss be place on one’s purchases which I think insures a 25% loss. Pump and dump seems possible although I have no idea how you could pump and dump based on any picking based on indicators. I have also been following other picks that I did not buy and they are also all in loser status.
You purchased the Keith Fitzgerald High Velocity Profit ? and it is bs? Please let me know if this is right. I am interested in this program or was I should say. Too good to be true huh? Hope to hear from you. Jeff
I actually got in on the 3 mths for $19 to try it out. His first action to take was to buy in NPTN as long as it was below $10.50. I bought at $9.69 and so far it has been going up. He states that the next X may not be for 16 mths so I put in for a year to start. I am hoping it works out as all I hav read so far is negative comments but not sure this was from people who followed his instructions completely.
If you held NPTN until the reversing X-cross you would have lost a lot of money.
Jeff, all he has done is modify the settings for the aroon indicator.
The indicator is available in any good charting software.
With all indicators you should play with the settings to find what best lines up with the security highs and lows.
As I said, its an indicator, not a guarantee, a useful tool that may help you.
If you want some good free advice use YouTube, start with Stephen Bigalow, Wendy Kirkland, metastock, by time you go through the info that is freely available you wont want to pay these people.
If your serious spend the money on a good scanning and charting software
What are the comparison criteria for scanning and charting software?
so then why not bet on the opposite of their recommendations if they are always wrong……? if recommendation says stock XYZ is going to go up (and all their recommendations always lose or opposite to what they say) then buy puts instead……if they recommend its going down, buy itm(in the money) or ntm (near the money)calls …further protect yourself and sell a call a few dollars higher than the call you bought (this just limits the profit if it goes up) then again im not always a successful options trader
I only found two stocks that are at a loss. All the others were going up.
At the end of the day, being a newb that I am at this, its a subscription to having someone tell you what stocks to buy ,at what amount, and when to sell. This is using some formula some guy did back in the 90’s.
which guy
How many stocks have u bought from Keith Fitz recommendations? Have u lost in all of them? I just started and want to know if I need to get out before losing. So far my one stock is going up. So I can get out before a loss. But originally Keith had said to plan to stay in for 16 months.
Carol — you have it all correct. The buy or sell patterns have no date certain…
The X-pattern stocks with high F scores have clear trend lines, either up or down. The patterns are based on a significant amount of trends and can cross to “sell” in a few days or a few years. (I just found this Kieth Fitz page and have not listened to his sales video.) You can find the same X – pattern stock analysis today at http://www.oilandenergyinvestor.com with Dr. Kent Moors. (for a faster rendition – start the video; then hit the exit key; then select the “read the transcript” option)
Moors’ X-pattern is based on 100-day high/low cycles (and he charges $1,995 or so) — I think I saw 25-day cycles mentioned here. On the Moors site he says he discovered the X pattern 30-years ago … yada yada … and that it predicted EVERY major market trend and selloff in a timely manner to buy in or get out of the market. Note: the X-sell signal is also someone else’s X-buy signal — you can ride the up and down escalator… The X-pattern is just a statistical ‘go-no go’ modeling tool for any variable event: military, oil exploration, or here “AROON” stock trends. Good luck.
Hi Charles Weiler. I have said in previous posts some months back, that the Fitzgerald “X” crossover is no great discovery and in most cases, can be replicated by using normal 25-50d EMA’s. Any trading model can be designed to look good when you rejig it to deliver the results you want after you have manipulated the data. Hindsight is so precise. But digressing from such academic and basically pointless technical trivia, I went to the website you posted: http://www.oilandenergyinvestor.com/ Did you happen to notice all the associated websites listed at the top of that webpage, i.e., , Money Morning, Strategic Tech Investor, Keith Fitzgerald’s Total Wealth, Dr kent Moors Oil& Energy Investor?. In other words, they are all affiliated and inter-connected and are simply cross-selling their particular “advice” service. It is like a spider spreading it’s web to catch as many flies as it can. I have given all the offers they promote the flick and based on many of the comments made here, I have saved a considerable amount of time, money and financial pain.
yup, there is no real time live demonstration for a reason
not interested in spending money for free tools
I’ve been subscribing to Money Map Press for several years (it was $39/year, but now seems like $79 or 99). The most important thing is to NOT follow any suggestion in the magazine just because of the write-up. These are best taken as ideas that MIGHT be good if you do your own analysis, and then decide when the time is right to enter, and where to exit. You’ll notice that many of the write-ups are about stocks that have ALREADY risen a great deal in price. That smells like pump-and-dump. But if you can confirm the story line with your own research, and if you have your own set of free charting tools (stockcharts.com, finviz.com, stockta.com) or good tools from Fidelity, or truly independent advisories such as Vector Vest and Power Options, then the magazine recommendations can be a profitable starting point .. that’s what I’ve done, and I’ve more than made back my subscription price, net, overall — that’s been my goal.
As far as the X-indicator, as everyone else has said, it’s just the weekly Aroon indicator, free on stockcharts.com. It’s not a perfect indicator, but certainly one worth considering. If it’s red over green, beware of initiating a position. And the timing lag from the cross over to the move is uncertain, as well as the extent of the move. But “most” of the time, the X-indicator is indicative of the overall subsequent stock movement.
The most dangerous thing about the magazine and the recommendations is the ‘sure thing’ way in which they’re written. The unstoppable trends story is a good idea. But the individual selections within those trends are very subjective. One approach is to find an ETF that mirrors the unstoppable trend, and then use your technical tools (including the X indicator), to trade those ETF’s. Agree with others that a 25% trailing stop is rather crude. Consider instead a 50 day moving average stop, but more important, once you’ve achieved a 10% gain, plan on never giving back more than 50% of your gain. And trailing put options paid for by slightly out of the money call options once you’ve got serious gains. Good luck!
Did following him ever chnge? Lots of hype,,
gonna need more than your ranting summaries for credibility
If what you conclude is really true, then you’ve discovered how to become wealthy using this service: just short or buy puts on all his recommendations and cover at the 25% stop loss.
(certainly will be on the net) chart we may get X patterns? When X is formed which 2 signals meet? (Red=? & Green=?).
Never heard of aroon, and I’ve been playing around with it on SharpCharts with assorted equities. And on it’s own it is showing some good possibilities. Try PG as an example, and your own choices, it’s very interesting w/o the X.
As for myself, I am (extreme) closing out all trades, and shorting the mkt by years in….15 days. I’m following Ichan and his multi-billion short position.
Oh, I forgot to mention, I was about to purchase Keith’s offer but I’m so glad I came here first. I’ve learned alot in the past half hour. Grateful to everyone. Not going forward w/purchase.
ATVI is the only winner in his current X recommendation portfolio.
Recommended by High Velocity Windfalls on 8/13/15
Hmmm. I do not know when SYKE was recommended, but it was 28.66 when I looked at it and is now 31.18 which is an 8 percent gain.
My comment…..if He Keith Fitz Gerald…knows how to really make money with his methods using x patterns, why does he need to “sell” his idea…….for money? Doesn’t make sense!!!
This method does sound too good to be true……:(
Well, if you see the crossover and buy it and then tell others about it who go out and buy it, that drives the price up after which time you can sell yours at a profit.
Its an indicator readily available in any good charting software.
I’m recently subscribed to this email, but trying to sell me a standard indicator sets alarm bells ringing. I’m unsubscribing.
As with all indicators you need to backrest and establish the settings that best track the security you are trading. There is no silver bullet for all markets
Having some familiarity with a handful of different indicators is helpful, but once you start using them you realise there are only really a couple of variations and the rest are simply adaptations of the primary indicators.
shhhh, stop thinking rationally… feel the power of the scam side!
I almost ordered it , but reading this reviews is not making it easy to do so.
Will hold back for now
Thanks for the infos
I received an email from Money Morning’s email list and saw this program as I guess they were endorsing it. I looked up “X” pattern in Google and found this post so thanks for that Gumshoe!!
So I tested the “X” pattern Aroon Indicator in my Think or Swim practice account with Futures and it worked great. I ran it against stocks as well and it works the same way. There are a few things to keep in mind though. These would be, (time frame, profit target, and risk tolerance). I tried all lengths for the indicator which you can see in Think or Swim if you add an indicator and choose to edit it, and noticed that a length of 2 works best. I set my “X” pattern length to 2, and tested using a 15, 30, 1 hr, and 1 day time frame. So far the 1hr time frame seems to work the best. Shorter time frames could have you jumping in and out too early or too late from a trade, which happened to me a number of times. If I buy once the “X” or crossover occurs I then set a (sell stop limit) order 1 or 2 ticks below the previous hours close, and if I sell then I set a (buy stop limit) order 1 or 2 ticks above the previous hours high. You do this to allow the trend to run, but this is where risk comes into play. If I bought /YM the Mini DJIA futures at 17500 and the previous low was at 17450 then I’m risking 50pts @ $5/pt so $250. As it runs up I move the sell stop limit up to the next hrs low. So if it runs up to 17600, but the low of that hour that I bought was 17550 then I’ll move the stop up from 17450 to 17550. This pretty much locks in a 50pt profit or $250. I say pretty much because I’ve seen movements drop a couple of hundred points in a matter of a minute. If that happens the stop will probably get passed up. So for every hour you repeat the process until the trend reverses and your stop is hit. You can get the most out of a gain this way, but you will be risking profit at the same time.
The conservative route would be to sell at a specified target price. Once the “X” pattern occurs, I would still set the stop in case the trend never occurs, but once it’s moving then maybe you take 10pts for $50 or whatever your tolerance allows.
If you have Think or Swim here is a link so you can see how CL – Crude Oil has reacted today Dec 17th using the 15, 30, 1hr and 1 day charts. http://tos.mx/3ehpgN
If not, I can share a screenshot with the owners of the site if they want to share it out that way.
Good Luck and Good Trading
Thank you all for sharing your insight. While the concept presented by High Velocity Windfalls is intriguing, I will try to learn more about the Aroon Indicator. I am a recent convert to technical trading and am fascinated with the informatiion provided through technicals. Am trying to learn more and more about it. Does anyone recommend a good resource for basic on technical trading?
Again thanks much.
Hi Sharon,
I can only tell you what I’ve used and am not endorsing him, although I think his info is great. Chris Dunn has a ton of free videos on youtube, and you’ll learn alot from his easy teaching method. Investopedia.com will also be able to provide you with an unlimited amount of information for all types of investing. For practice I use Think or Swim which is from TD Ameritrade. You’ll have to create a TD account, and then download the program on your PC or tablet.
Sharon, you may be interested in following: http://ac-investor.blogspot.com/ Have an awesome holiday season and beyond all! Best2U-Ben
Thank you for that blog site….very interesting information!
I back-tested his supposed previous massive ‘winner’ examples and I think what he’s done is dig up a bunch of stocks that had HUGE gains in the past and THEN monkeyed around with the AROON indicator, using various settings until he could massage them to show a positive BUY triggers but not any false SELL triggers on the way up, then zoom in on just the right part, cut and paste and call that an ‘example’. The reason I suspect this is that if you take one of his examples, stock ticker ANDE, his example shows it from July 2012 to late April 2014. To duplicate his AROON setting on ANDE in Stockcharts.com, if you set the AROON to 100, then it will match his example exactly, which goes positive (Nov 2012) and then negative about April 2014.
But here’s the thing. If you started the chart at Jan 2011 instead of Nov 2012, you would have gotten 2 false BUY triggers, the first in Feb 2011 and the next in Dec 2011 and I highly doubt that the ‘fair value’ indicator thingy would have been much different if at all at those false BUY triggers. AFTER those false BUY’s, you would have had to endure a pretty big draw-down and a waste of tied up capital, Feb 2011 BUY at $29.00 which then fell straight down to an AROON SELL at $25.00, June 2011 so about a 12% loss over a 5 month period. The the next Buy on Dec 2011 turned into a sell 7 months later but at least with no capital loss, but still lost time.
Basically I think he’s just found a way to scan for AROON crosses, then checks the F-Value (or maybe doesn’t even bother) and then sends out an ‘alert’ to his paid suckers and tells them to BUY it and then as one guy above mentioned who subscribed to his alerts, tells them to set a 25% stop loss.
It kind of sounds like a racket to me but who knows, maybe one of his tips could pay off. DAMN, and I really thought I’d found a get-rich-quick scheme! But hey, it sure looks like he has! He said he was ‘only’ going to let 5,000 people in on his ‘secret’ and he’s charging over $100? That’s pretty good money if he can hook enough people.
Guess I’m one of those schmucks. LOL
But I bought it for that very same reason. It’s an unproven formula (because its too early), and i thought, “well instead of me trying to figure out some new methodology of throwing darts at a stock-chart, why not try this gbased on some 90’s formula”.
Now what really makes a difference, is when mass amount of people buy and sell at the same time. This is what I’m kinda hoping for…. as for the formula its a gamble if it works out or not since there’s not enough data as it was made only a couple decades ago.
Getting into stocks, I thought there’d be tons of these “formula” theories floating around? But seems to be rare.
The last “ask” for High Velocity Profits is $1,950 for the “lucky” first 1,000! If he really gets 1000 paid members, that $1.95 million. I guess that’s where his windfall is! LOL
Thanks for the extensive explanations and clarifications Rudolph. I almost got hooked and subscribe to High Velocity Profits. It also dawned in to me: Why would someone need additional meager income if his system makes him huge profits in the 1000s percent figure?
Hello all.
I ran across the same ad from Keith Fitz-Gerald, and proceeded to do some of my own homework. Incredibly, you can utilize this strategy without paying any of the costs at all, and there are plenty of tools along the way.
For starters, it took me only two and a half hours to build a calculator out of Microsoft Excel that computes and graphs the AROON of the stock I’m inputting–all I do is input the stock value on a daily basis, then input 1’s or 0’s for the AROON variable(s) (I can even chart past years with incredible accuracy). So far, it’s worked like a charm–I’ve tested it with several stocks now. It’s worth noting that at this point, there’s really no purpose for this tool without understanding how to utilize Joseph Piotroski’s F-Score method, and I easily discovered that there are two approaches for utilizing this method; you can read his report for yourself at https://www.chicagobooth.edu/~/media/FE874EE65F624AAEBD0166B1974FD74D.pdf or you can utilize tools such as the “screener” option at http://www.tradepilot.com, which lists publicly traded firms based on their F-Score (among other options).
The reason for this lies in what time frame you use for your AROON variable(s), as this can drastically affect times at which you should buy and sell (as was noted above). By utilizing the F-Score, the idea is that you’ll only be investing in businesses that, based on current and historical finances, indicate that they have financial habits indicative of growth over time. In other words, the F-Score will teach you how to evaluate how a company handles its finances, in a sense, so that you invest in businesses that are better at generating capital (cashflow and otherwise) while minimizing obligations (debt), rather than companies which increase capital through means of borrowing which increases obligations (and decreases the financial integrity of their stock portfolio performance).
By investing in these companies, the idea is to profit from steadier gains that are largely generated from the fact that the company will be increasing its value (largely through its ability to increase overall capital while decreasing debts/costs).
Contrarily, not all firms rated with high F-Scores are necessarily great at handling their own finances, so it’s worth taking the time to understand the firm’s financial history up to date by doing your own research.
Overall, it was rather interesting to discover that regardless of what time frame I used for my calculator, it was fairly accurate at ‘generally’ predicting buy and sell times for investors. That being said, these tools in the right hands might actually generate profit for investors, as they seem to help investors minimize losses.
With the calculator and a basic understanding of F-Score implementation, all I need to do now is sit back and monitor the stock market and plug numbers in daily; If his method works, I’ll know it.
I also think it’s worth noting that in order to really find firms worthy of investment when utilizing this strategy, you’ll find very soon that a large portion of time gets spent on studying the current and historical finances of a firm you’re considering investing in. With a staff of employees (such as Keith’s), you’re much more able to comb through more data in less time and can therefor increase the profitability of this technique. Employing that kind of staff, however, can get very expensive very quick. It seems to make sense to me that if he’s providing information pertaining to such work, he (and his team) should be properly compensated for it.
Thanks to everyone, I have learned a lot of useful information.
You say: For starters, it took me only two and a half hours to build a calculator out of Microsoft Excel that computes and graphs the AROON of the stock I’m inputting–all I do is input the stock value on a daily basis, then input 1’s or 0’s for the AROON variable(s) (I can even chart past years with incredible accuracy).So would you share this calculator and how to use it. I’m not that good in Excel to come up with that.
Thanks
AS this guy is on Fox Bus. News, you can figure that he will have to return the money if asked. And he did . .I try such things [they offer the window] to see if it works.. .this was a $1,950 charge they handed off their 4 stocks one of which I did check the F Score on and it was a 4 not the claimed 8 .. I also watched the wild card he received 50,000 shares for the promo on ESKO (?) which soon tanked with all sorts of bad press. All I got from the experience was the AROON which I learned to use .. OK OK Fine ! In tracking all the stocks in the first 4 none of them were profitable in the first 90 days … One more ruse …
Could you clarify your reply. It would help me see if you had some problems with this program or not. Did you buy this product “High Velocity Profits” and was it effective or not?