by Travis Johnson, Stock Gumshoe | March 8, 2013 4:39 pm
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Why have you deleted the Print This Article and now have Email This? Now if I Print directly off the page, I get double images. Please help and thank you.
That was a technical slip-up, sorry — should be back there at the bottom of the article now.
Works great, Thank You.
Oh, guess that I should inform you that I am not “that” Jim Nelson whose teaser you worked on today.
Also, I apparently don’t have my email tied to this and, being an old fart, don’t know how to do it.
Hi Jim, I tried going into the Personal Portfolio Comments and pulled up the article there and it offered the print this article option and it worked fine! But you are correct it doesn’t work very well otherwise from the Friday File (double prints)
Hi Travis, Would you consider Intel as a Core holding in the “Performance Tracking for the Irregulars” folder?
I’ve never specifically featured INTC as a suggested idea of the month pick for the irregulars so its not on they list — but it easily could be and I consider it a core holding for my personal portfolio. It’s not among my top personal holdings by position size, but it might get there before too long.
Re Intel; I am one of the few who do not believe that the desktop/laptop market is dead. I think the tablet market will become saturated and people will soon realize the limitations and be back buying desktops again. How do folks past the age of forty, that don’t wear backpacks, carry these tablets around?
I recently purchased a desktop with the Intel Core i7 chip. It is amazing how fast that chip is. You don’t even have to upgrade your modem/router or internet service to get fantastic response time. I can’t figure out why Intel stock is treated like a commodity. They are at the cutting edge of every new generation of semiconductor chips that come along.
I fully agree about Intel’s and Apple’s valuations (even though I’m a new convert to these 2 companies). They, and companies like Microsoft and Google, are awesome entities that deserve far more credit than they are getting now.
The other day I tried to imagine a world without Microsoft or Intel and I just could not. Every day I’m amazed by what they have accomplished.
Having said that, I don’t think anyone will ever figure out the valuations that Wall Street, or investors in general, put on stocks, products, and ideas. It takes a twisted mind to pay $170 million for a company just to be able to quash it (as Intuit did with Mint and hundreds of others who have done likewise). I’m convinced that much (or rather most) of the investment business is a conglomeration of luck; impulsive behavior; quackery; leads without supporting back-up; self-promoting lies; wishful thinking; buying stocks by picking names (as my wife liked to do – and her selections were often better); writers making deadlines thus putting together something about the next name that pops up; gambling (pure and unadulterated with that total adrenaline rush); guessing; hoping the guru who writes your newsletter was sober when he made the last recommendation; and enlightenment from spiritual beings.
In other words, all those studies and charts and models, will always provide a plausible explanation for the irrational behavior of the markets, but in the end, whether you make or lose money will mostly be a toss of the old coin.
Why? – because wall street cannot make money by promoting and selling good solid stocks like Intel. They make it from the ones that they can pump up or shoot down at will. This is why monkeys throwing darts at the Wall Street Journal will eventually have as much success as your best “analysts” (and given enough time and typewriters, will be able to duplicate the works of Shakespeare).
Call me skeptical, call me irrational, but I know of no one who has ever been able to beat the system on a regular and continuous basis. It can’t be done. Even Buffett, and Bill Gross, and Peter Lynch all had help from lady luck at their side while being in the right place at the right time.
That’s what I’ve heard too Walter, they haven’t been able to beat the market.
Does anyone have an opinion about buying ETF’s like DIA or the leveraged UDOW?
Mr Travis thanks for all you input , I like the divy’s as well as the next person especially on an INTC but what I have fun with is following there options through out the year and using them over and over in covered calls, and even some puts , but they have never let me down. That is not to say that it was perfect option every time but it makes money and even when I have to pull the trigger on buying them sometimes it still seems like a safe no brainer. Just a thought that it is not a bad option that believe it or not grows my portfolio safely so far. I hope that made sense. But APPLE is just a little to big of a hoarse for me to play the same game, I get the China Syndrome with them. I am sure INTC has some China in them but the odds always seem to work better with them. Thanks for the update.
I am very uncomfortable with INTC, as I am with the market as a whole. If the Dow drops more than 5%, I am going 100% cash ( all tax sheltered accounts).
Please consider:
Berkshire Hathaway also sold its entire stake in California-based computer parts supplier Intel
http://www.moneynews.com/MKTNews/billionaires-dump-economist-stock/2012/08/29/id/450265?PROMO_CODE=110D8-1&utm_source=taboola#ixzz2N3ugoucp
Buffet also sold not only his Intel but also his Johnson and Johnson. I personally do not like the guy, but I do pay attentionto his moves. Seems he is moving outof consumer driven stocks which means contrary to his public statements , he thinks consumers will have less to spend and consumer driven stocks will turn south. He bought Wells Fargo which means freely printing money will be needed to hold a financial stock up.
As long as the world has personal intrests in the dollar staying stable, then they will all work together to see to it the dollar stays on top. A surprise announcement froma country like Chine that they are putting their currency on the gold standard shouldnshake things up though. Not likely, but they HAVE made overatures that they would like to be on the gold standard by 2017. So a surprise acceleration would amount to an economic attack and would cause a shift in world opinions.
I said all that to ask, how would Intel fit into the scheme of less consumer spending? Would it be considered a more consumer driven stock, or more an industrial type action in its stock?
Hi Travis, regarding Sandstorm what is driving the cliff? Is it the drop in Gold prices??
I was reading rumors that gold prices are plumetting due to the potential for the fed to increase rates given the improvement in housing here. Wanted to know your thoughts. Society General claims Gold is about to enter a ‘protracted bear market’ but then again, I try not to react to CNBC pieces. LOL.
I think that mostly it’s been a reaction to falling gold prices, and falling expectations for gold prices, that has taken down the royalty companies over the last six months since gold hit its high above $1,800. SAND has fallen more than the others if you go back a bit more than six months because they had that brief spurt of attention after they got the NY listing and Jim Cramer’s attention, but has done far better than RGLD and FNV if you go back further still. It’s now back to where it was last Summer, and I’d argue that their business is looking much better and more diversified now.
The realization that gold can go down as well as up certainly got the attention of new investors, and with the market booming recently at least some money has flowed from gold-related picks back to reqular equities, with the fears of the end of the world being a bit less severe now. One of the excuses for selling SAND for some folks was their recent deal to get into Mongolia, but given the small and protected nature of that deal I think that’s an excuse, not a reason.
SAND/SSL.TO still has a discounted valuation compared to the big guys, with a forward PE in the 15-20 range according to Canadian analysts (though I don’t know what their gold prices expectations are), and I think they’ll grow into a better valuation and grow faster than FNV and RGLD, but RGLD, at least, will also grow nicely over the next few years. All assuming, of course, that gold doesn’t go back to $1,000 or even lower.
It is really all about gold — if gold enters into that “protracted bear market” and goes down for several years, these stocks will do badly. I think currency depreciation will continue from all major economies, and I think that should support the gold price, but I could certainly be wrong. If gold does well, these stocks will do well. I like royalties and streaming for my gold exposure, but it is gold exposure … for good or ill.
I think it should stay interesting — I’m particularly curious to see how the Serra Pelada project starts out when it gets online this Summer — that’s an oddball because it’s a historic mine and we can’t guess what the reserves are yet, but they have some hugely rich veins and they’ll be producing gold in a few months at about the same time that they release some more details about reserves, so that could become a biggie over time. If things stay on pace and gold doesn’t collapse, we could easily see earnings and gold ounces double over the next three years even if they don’t add any additional streaming deals to the portfolio. If.
Thanks for your (as always) detailed insights.
I probably will sell some of my SNXXF at a slight gain to buy some time and pull them into the SDXXF.
Long term I do feel bullish, but with options one has to be careful. Will hold onto all my SAND though.
Any thoughts on the Sprott Inc. takeover of Sprott Resource Corp.?
Meh. Just posted this: http://stockgumshoe.com/2013/05/friendly-takeover-sell-for-me/
Hi Travis, what is your view of ROSNEFT? I have read the the dividend might go up to 6.9%, that seems to be pretty good for a company taht bought a portion of BP.(some debt ofcourse)
The numbers are obviously appealing, it’s cheap and has huge reserves, but they do have some operational challenges (expense of new fields, etc.) and I find the government ownership off-putting in this case (I don’t always). I am not terribly confident that Rosneft or Gazprom will consistently act in shareholders’ interests, particularly if Russia’s state interest is different.
Is the symbol for ROSNEFT, RNFTF ? Why does it say last close 02/26?
There are a few pink sheets ticker symbols for Rosneft, but they’re all pretty illiquid — most of the volume is in London trading for their stock (ROSN on the London exchange). The OJSCY pink sheets ticker for Rosneft has been slightly more active lately, but also illiquid and hard to trade.
Illiquid stocks like these, indeed for any foreign-listed company with a pink sheets ticker that’s not very widely traded, are usually possible to buy as long as you’re willing to pay a little premium to the “home” listing price … but they’re also hard to sell without accepting a discount, sometimes a substantial one, particularly if the price is declining when you want to sell. So always be comfortable with stocks that you buy on the pink sheets before you buy them (or be willing to accept losses), selling can often be harder than you expect.
Re Sandstorm…….Are warrants the same as company bonds where they’re for set period at set interest with interest deposits being paid at regular intervals?
No, stock warrants are more akin to stock options — a warrant typically gives you the right to purchase a stock at a certain price before a certain date, though stock warrants typically are for several years and the terms can have a variety of conditions, adjustments, or repurchase rights built in, they’re not standardized like listed common stock options are.