“This Stock is Going Up, Big Time” — Porter Stansberry

By Travis Johnson, Stock Gumshoe, July 30, 2009

“A Market Insider and Lifelong Friend Hands Me the Best Opportunity of 2009

“‘I can’t imagine a better stock to buy.'”

That’s how the newest ad launches for Porter Stansberry’s Inside Strategist, a newsletter that has churned through at least two editors in the last few years, but which is now apparently run by Porter and a newer guy named Braden Copeland. And this time, Porter’s actually signing the ad letter himself and making a pretty bold claim …

“This is the best play I’ve seen in the last 3 years. I told my readers to put 25% of their portfolio in this stock. That’s how sure I am.”

Well, if he’s that certain of this one … shouldn’t we at least figure out who it is?

The ad is all about a stock that he has targeted because an old friend of his is an executive at the company, and he says that his friend told him this:

“I don’t know why our stock is trading for less than $10… it’s crazy. I know what our sales will be. I know how well our products are doing. We’re doing great. I don’t know everything about investing. But, I can’t imagine a better stock to buy than ours.”

Now, if we take off the rose-colored glasses for a moment and think back to every conference call we’ve listened to, and every CEO interview on CNBC, we might note that yes, CEOs are often shocked at the low prices of their shares. But we’ll give him the benefit of the doubt here and see what we can learn …

Porter tells us that he has turned these kinds of tips and comments into profitable trades for his investors for years, and he reiterates the claims that he was an early predictor of the failures of Fannie and Freddie and GM (claims that seem accurate, as far as I can tell).

And he tells us that he’s “confident [his friend’s] stock will be my best play of 2009. I’m talking about a potential 200-300% … in just a few short months.”

All I can say is, thank God it’s not a few of those long months — who’s got that kind of time to wait?

Let me dig through the ad and pull out some clues for us …

“His company commands 50% of the $4 billion worldwide market for heart stents.

“And now, they’re introducing a new, one-of-a-kind stent technology that needs very little drugs to protect the stent, therefore making it safer and far more effective when implanted in patients.

“The final tests are being done on the stent before it’s ready to hit the market.”

OK, so stents are a pretty oligopolistic business — this might not be too difficult.

Other clues? There are some past charts he shares, with these basic claims:

The company purchased “an angioplasty technology where catheters reopen clogged arteries in lieu of surgery. Shares shot up 220% in just over a year.”

OK, and “the last time they released a proprietary stent technology to the market …. Shares soared 411% in three years.”

They “booked $5.6 billion in profits last year.”

John Paulson, the legendary investor who made gazillions from the credit collapse, owns “about $800 million worth” of this company.

So — that’s about it for the clues on this one (though he also talks up a second special report, “A quick double thanks to the ultimate gold insider” which is all about a John Doody gold pick and its mining permits in Greece… I wrote about this for a Doody teaser back in May, so you can read up on it here if you like).

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But back to the point — what is this medical stock?

Boston Scientific (BSX)

John Paulson’s investment firm does own just under $800 million in BSX shares. They are one of the major stent companies.

And be careful about that assessment that they booked $5.6 billion in profit — they did, but it was gross profit, meaning just the revenues minus the cost of goods sold … operating expenses and one-time charges have eaten up all that “profit” and more over the last three year