This pretty well sums up the pitch from Dave Forest in recent ads for Casey’s International Speculator ($1,995/yr, no refunds):
“I believe these three rare earth stocks are a “lock” to go up 60x over the next few months… turning $500 into $30,000… and $5,000 into $300,000.
“Demand is soaring…
“Supply is shrinking…
“President Trump needs this victory…
“The Pentagon is opening their checkbook…
“Not to mention, according to a study by Yale University, these elements are basically ‘irreplaceable.’
“Meaning, the odds are stacked in our favor to see massive profits.”
So yes, we’re seeing rare earths pitched again — though this time, the argument is not as much that they’ll be a pawn in the US-China trade war (though that’s always possible, of course, the trade war is still alive and well despite the fact that the governments might soon sign “Phase 1” of an agreement, which is really more of a “time out, let’s have a truce for a bit” deal), but that rare earths will be critical to 5G and will therefore be in high demand, driving up prices.
And, of course, there’s always the strategic imperative — ever since China effectively took over global rare earths processing 20 years ago by cutting prices and driving US and other producers out of the market, partially using those supplies as leverage to get high-tech manufacturers to move more of their higher-end work to China, US leaders have been worried about our reliance on an outside provider for these critical supermagnets and metals. Largely, at least on the surface, because of the fact that the high-tech US arsenal is really build on technologies that depend on rare earths.
So that’s always the backdrop for rare earth metals pitches: China dominates the market, partly because they buy up all the suppliers they can and partly because processing rare earths is dirty and not all that profitable (especially if you have to compete with Chinese producers), so other companies and countries don’t really have a financial incentive to get into the business (which, naturally, is why all rare earth companies try to pitch themselves as “strategically important” and not so much as “high grade” or “low cost” like you’ll see in other mined commodity projects).
What, then is Dave Forest touting? Assuming you don’t want to pony up two grand to find out, without the hope of a refund (they’ll offer you a credit for some other Casey product if you don’t like International Speculator, but, like many publishers, they almost never let you get your money back for the higher-cost services), I thought we should figure out those names for you so you’re not throwing that kind of money after a daydream. If you feel like committing $1,995 after we tell you what the “secret” stocks are, well, I sure won’t stop you — it’s your money — just don’t ever spend that kind of nonrefundable money just to get into a “secret,” you’re likely to either be horribly disappointed or to overcompensate and bet big on those risky investments just to justify your expense (the brain does not like to admit it’s been fooled, and some of our biggest mistakes come when we fail to recognize we’ve made a small mistake, and throw more foolishness on the fire).
The ad starts with a theatrical “smash open this crate” moment as Forest reveals the “seeds of technology” elements, those 17 rare earth elements (like neodymium for super-magnets, europium for color displays, and lanthanum for optics)… and he emphasizes how valuable these commodities are:
“… there’s a reason they’re called RARE earth metals.
“Because they’re extremely difficult to extract from the earth.
“You have to shift through tons and tons of ore to produce a tiny amount.
“It’s a very expensive process.
“For instance, neodymium costs around $108,000 for a metric ton.
“While europium fetches $622,000 for a metric ton.
“Compare that to copper…
“Which costs around $5,700.
“Meaning europium is worth over 10,800% more.”Are you getting our free Daily Update
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There are not many companies mining or processing these metals, and, yes, most of them are still inside China… but, of course, Forest sees a “super cycle” coming that will benefit some specific firm