Marc Lichtenfeld “Bets His Paycheck” — “GMS” Stock revealed

What's being teased as a "guaranteed double" by Lightning Trend Trader?

This article originally appeared on July 22, 2015, and the bulk of it has not been updated or revised since. The meat of the ad is essentially the same, and if Lichtenfeld really “bet his paycheck” on this stock (which was and is Alnylam) on July 22 he’s so far lost about 65% of that paycheck… though he would have had similar results with betting on any biotech stock at that time, since 7/22 was only about a week removed from the all-time peak in the biotech index.

A second version of the ad back in November had a different intro, implying that the company would surge because of an announcement at a “billion-dollar facility” in Orlando in the first week of November — the “billion-dollar facility” is the Orange County Convention Center in Orlando, where the American Heart Association meeting took place from November 7-11. The shares didn’t really move based on anything that happened that week, the data was more or less positive but it wasn’t a key moment for that particular drug (ALN-PCSc). The stock has generally been acting like a 2X leveraged play on the broader IBB biotech index in recent months, since November it’s down about 40% while the broader biotech group is down 20%.

There is a lot of data coming this year, so the story of Alnylam’s attempt to get RNAi drugs approved is likely to continue to evolve — they’ll have data released mid-year for a few of their programs, and the stock is down a bit over the last few days mostly because (as I interpret it) one of their earlier-stage drugs is not proving to be as effective as some investors had hoped and might be a complementary therapy instead of a first-line therapy. They posted an update and summary of the “data rich” year to come with their quarterly update here.

So with that intro, I’ll send you back to our original article about Lichtenfeld’s teaser, which started running almost a year ago… I still have never owned the stock, and don’t personally intend to get involved in this kind of multi-billion-dollar long-term science speculation. Enjoy!

—from 7/22/15—

A lot of readers have chimed in with questions about this latest ad from Marc Lichtenfeld — it’s a pitch for his higher-end newsletter service called Lightning Trend Trader, published by the Oxford Club, and he’s got a nice big promise to get your attention — not only does he “guarantee” that you’ll have (the opportunity to) double your money in his favorite pick soon (“starting August 30”), but he’s also “betting his paycheck” that this double will happen.

None of which really matters, of course, it’s just a way to get attention by demonstrating his conviction that the stock will be a big winner. Nearly every newsletter company of any size offers at least a short-term money-back guarantee, and many of them use these kinds of “I’ll guarantee you a 100% return by X date” promises in their ads, and that feels comforting… but they do not, of course, guarantee to “make good” on that guaranteed double. In this case, Lichtenfeld’s publishers will, if he fails to generate a 100% gain for you in this stock (or give you a few chances at 100% gains in the next year), give you… another year of the newsletter for free.

Which, of course, is no skin off their nose — if you’re calling out of anger and looking for a refund, you’re not going to renew anyway, and adding another free subscriber adds no marginal cost to a newsletter’s business… nothing wrong with making the guarantee, and Lichtenfeld may end up being right, but don’t make the mistake of assuming that these “guarantees” mean it’s a surer bet than any other investment idea — it’s just a marketing tactic, and every stock needs to be understood and evaluated on its own merits before you can think about buying it.

OK, lecture over — what is the stock Lichtenfeld is pitching? It’s in the hot RNAi space but he doesn’t use that term, since it would perhaps make it too easy to identify the stock — he renames this and calls it “Gene Mutation Silencing (GMS)” and says that his favorite GMS stock is “the most profitable stock opportunity I’ve found in my 20 years in the markets.”

Here’s a bit from the ad:

“It’s a business that just picked up seven different revenue streams that could be worth $329.8 million each… It just received favored legal status that gives it a monopoly for over seven years…

“It’s sitting on a mountain of cash (more than $1 billion) and has ZERO debt.

“I calculate revenues are set to jump as much as 3,733% (or more).

“And beyond all that, the company is in control of what is perhaps the biggest development in medical history.

“Dr. Phillip A. Sharp, Nobel Prize-winning MIT biologist and ‘Senior Statesman’ of biotechnology, called the initial discovery of the technological breakthrough being utilized by this company ‘the most important and exciting breakthrough of the last decade, perhaps multiple decades.’

“This thing is so good…

“I’m going all-in, betting my paycheck that it will give you the chance to – at minimum – double your money starting August 30.”

Sounds exciting, right? He gives lots of examples of biotech stocks that he says he picked for his subscribers, generating 100% plus returns in recent years on big short-term stock moves — presumably most biotech-focused newsletters have had at least a few such winners, given the incredible 400% return the average biotech stock (as represented by the biotech index ETFs) has generated over the past five years.

And, as with all exciting biotech ideas, Lichtenfeld has a couple catalysts in mind for this one that he thinks will spike the price higher…

“The fact is, two key events are quickly approaching that could send this stock doubling in the year ahead.

“The first catalyst will occur as early as August 30, the second in early 2016.

“I’m essentially guaranteeing you’ll make money.

“I’m so confident in this that I’m offering to WORK for FREE if you don’t see the opportunity to make a certain amount.”

OK, so I can see why the biotech investors who’ve found a home here at Stock Gumshoe are excited about the idea of this one — what is it?

I’m not going to force you to sit through my examination of the entire ad, which got awfully long and involved in trying to describe his “Gene Mutation Silencing” science without actually mentioning RNAi, but you can check out the whole “presentation” here if you’re curious. The big push is that he sees them making huge earnings from each of what are mostly orphan drugs treating rare diseases, seven drugs that it has in clinical development now (plus eight more in preclinical development), but then he goes on to pitch this “August 30” catalyst for what he implies might be the “Most Lucrative Drug of All Time” (OK, he used a question mark at the end of that… but still).

“Breaking News Coming August 30…

“The GMS company is expected to make a very important announcement on that day.

“It involves a drug that treats a cholesterol condition that directly affects more than 71 million Americans.

“Now… to give you some idea of how important cholesterol drugs can be… consider that Pfizer company’s Lipitor is the highest-grossing drug of all time.

“It’s made $131 billion for Pfizer.

“So there’s a lot of money to be made in this field… if you can produce a drug that truly works.

“And that’s what has me so excited.

“On August 30, our GMS company is set to release the data on its drug.

“And let me tell you, I’ve already seen the numbers… and they are impressive.

“Levels of low-density lipoprotein cholesterol – or “bad cholesterol – are down as much as 57% for patients taking the drug.

“And tests show ‘no serious adverse effects.’

“On August 30, it’s going to release this positive data….

“… the company might have THE premier drug in a $19 billion-a-year market.”

And just in case that wasn’t enough, he tosses a few more clues on the pile — that it might get get bought out by one of the giant pharma companies, and that Genzyme bought 12% of the company, and the CEO has been buying shares, adding $950,000 worth to his holdings in January.

And the second catalyst, coming in “early 2016” he thinks, is that the stock could be added to the S&P 500. That’s possible, I suppose — I haven’t checked to see whether it meets the basic criteria for public float and liquidity, but it probably does, and it’s definitely big enough with a market cap over $10 billion.

So yes, we do know who this is — Lichtenfeld is teasing Alnylam (ALNY)

I know, again. ALNY is the poster child for RNAi and “fountain of youth” stocks, and has been an irresistible target of teaser campaigns for years, from the Oxford Club and others. We recently re-posted an article from 2013 about the “Magic Keys to Immortality” when the Oxford Club first started touting this company, and Michael Robinson teased the stock for his Nova-X report a couple months ago as well.

That first pitch, from the Oxford Club two years ago, was nicely timed — the stock was around $30 now and it’s now at about $130, so that’s a 300%+ gain during a time when the broad biotech index, as represented by the IBB ETF, was up “only” 125%.

And yes, the clues still match perfectly in the ad, though the short-term impact from their cholesterol drug is likely to be quite muted compared to Lichtenfeld’s excitement over the “August 30” news. They do have a drug that has shown a very powerful ability to reduce cholesterol levels, but that’s in patients who have Hypercholesterolemia, extremely high cholesterol levels that almost guarantees heart problems. This is an area where there’s critical need for treatment, but a small number of sufferers, typical of orphan drugs (I didn’t check to see whether this particular drug, ALN-PCS and the subcutaneouo ALN-PCSsc, has orphan status from the FDA). When Lichtenfeld tosses out the 71 million number and the Lipitor sales numbers, and dreams of blockbuster drugs surge in your head, that’s assuming that this drug moves on from their very small-scale orphan treatment of people with extremely high cholesterol and gets used more broadly at some point in the future — 71 million is the number usually tossed around for the number of people who have “high cholesterol” … the kind of folks who are told to maybe take a statin, exercise, and improve their diet, not the folks with Familial Hypercholesterolemia (there are other varieties as well) who live in fear of having their first heart attack before they become teenagers.

There are other drugs that are far ahead of ALN-PCS in treating Hypercholesterolemia, particularly the monoclonal antibody PCSK9 inhibitors that seem to be on the doorstep of getting approved by the FDA (Sanofi/Regeneron’s Praluent, which will probably be approved this week, and Amgen’s Repatha, which was approved in Europe yesterday and is looking for an FDA response in a month or so). I don’t know if they’ll turn out to be better or not, but they’ll probably be in use several years before ALN-PCSsc since that drug is still in Phase 1 trials. It’s true that they expect to have some results available from that trial by “mid year” as of their last announcements, so perhaps that’s what the August 30 date points to, but that’s not going to generate real revenue immediately. That particular drug is partnered with The Medicines Company (MDCO), and it did indeed achieve excellent results in the first Phase 1 trial of ALN-PCS back in 2013 (that’s where the 57% reduction in LDL cholesterol number comes from)… presumably Lichtenfeld (or his copywriter) is implying that he already knows the results of this current trial because the prior trial was successful — I can’t imagine he actually has any inside information on the trial results of the ongoing trial, since that would be illegal. Even implying that he knows how the trial is going in the ad is pushing it a bit, frankly.

Not that ALN-PCS is the most important drug for Alnylam — I don’t want to imply that this $10 billion company is trading just based on one Phase 1 trial. They’ve been pioneers in RNAi and have partnerships with several big pharma companies — their lead drugs, including one in Phase III trials, are aimed at TTR-Mediated Amyloidosis and you can see the full pipeline here.

Beyond that, you’re on your own — folks here have looked at ALNY many times over the past couple years, our biotech columnist Dr. KSS commented on their progress and valuation back in May and the stock comes up in his discussions about RNAi from time to time. I’ve learned to avoid getting too detailed with biotech companies because the valuations have little to do with financials or business prospects and everything to do with science and sentiment — and I am not going to become an expert on the science, so the more I write about these stocks the more I make mistakes. I’ll leave it to you to discuss. Enjoy!

P.S. So… are the folks who subscribe to Lightning Trend Trader for $1,495 because they’re excited to learn about this stock going to be mad when they learn that it was previously a special report stock heavily touted by the $149 Oxford Club Communique for most of the past two years? Seems a bit odd that they’re using the same stock to push these two different letters, and that the $149 Communique promo has still been circulating as recently as last month.


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51 Comments on "Marc Lichtenfeld “Bets His Paycheck” — “GMS” Stock revealed"

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TheJacksonFive
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0

Gummy,
I’m not dummy. How many shares at $130 per share do you think that I can buy?

TJ

Yuan anon
Guest
0

Thanks Travis, I suspected you confirmed. Too cheap for lightning trader. Oxford recommends a tight stop.

gratitude1
Member
4

Excellent writeup, a bit lengthy, & helpful.

Gary
Guest
0

We have indeed seen quite a few pro ALNY pieces over the past year or so. I did my own followup reading and concluded that there is something here. The only problem is the valuation and that it is already a momo stock, so volatility reins. If you’ve got the stomach for it, I think it’s worth a small position until something more concrete occurs.

takeprofits
Guest
0
I found it interesting that Lipitor gets mentioned as one of the most profitable drugs ever generating $131, Billion. Interesting because I have done considerable research on statins and came to the conclusion that cholesterol is not as big a problem as the medical profession makes it out to be, except for those whose diets are really terrible and their high levels could be controlled by changes in lifestyle. The clincher for me was when ads began appearing on Canadian television for a class action lawsuit against Pfizer because women taking Lipitor were becoming diabetic, a disease I was diagnosed… Read more »
wiredawg2014
Irregular
43
I have high cholesterol, 320 level if I don’t take any meds was diagnosed back in the mid 90’s. Me and statins don’t get along. My current doctor has been trying to see if something will work to get me below 200. Been at it for the last five years. I’ve been through pretty much every statin on the market. My problem is;it does nothing or it lowers my cholesterol level but raises my liver ALTs/ASTs or something of the sort. I just know it’s not a good trade-off. Currently, I’m on Crestor been a 2 months go back to… Read more »
bruce carey
Guest
0

wheat is very bad for you. i have family members that were diabetic and stopped all wheat . within 2 months they were tested and removed from all medication . There cholesterol has fallen steadily as well and now there weight. Wheat is in white floor and many products watch out.

Jan
Guest
0

I began taking Red Yeast Rice (400-600 mg/day) when Lipitor began giving me problems. My bad Cholesterol went down, and the good went up. Red Yeast Rice, available over-the-counter (I get mine at a mail order vitamin site) does contain a natural statin-like substance, so you should take CoQ10 with it, just like you should with statins. It was recommended by my doctor, who stopped his Lipitor and began the Red Yeast Rice. Don’t know if it could help you, but it sure helped me.

backoffice
Irregular
210

My wife is the same way, her diet is that of a rabbit yet her Cholesterol is over 300. I made her stop taking statins and changed her diet, now her cholesterol is 170.
extet@aol.com

John
Guest
0
You sound like a proactive person and your heart and motivation are definitely in the right place but you’ve been misled by a corrupt medical system and a doctor who may simply not know any better. You’re cholesterol at 223 is actually quite acceptable. One of the greatest myths foisted on the American people in the last 4 decades is the myth (and big pharma $$ generator) that cholesterol levels below 200 are healthy. Simply not true! Stroke and heart attack occur with increasing frequency as cholesterol levels drop below 200. The further below 200, the higher the frequency becomes.… Read more »
takeprofits
Irregular
383
Unfortunately TRUE, the pharmaceutical industry is focused on PROFIT, not health and since medical doctors are steeped in traditional so called medical science they are not for the most part open to safer, cheaper natural cures. As an earlier poster admitted, the profession really thrives on ignorance and lack of discipline of people who have never studied nutrition and its primary role in promoting good health, they simply offer “quick fixes” that are often worse than the disease itself. As my own doctor admitted to me, (didn’t even have one until I was in my 70,s) “ALL drugs have undesirable… Read more »
MachineGhost
Guest
0
Do you have familial hypercholesterolemia? It’s typically in the 300+ range. I don’t want to repeat what the other replies said, but the crux of the matter is not the cholesterol per se, it is the oxidization of LDL. Statins are a very brute force approach to reducing LDL particle count. Until PCKS9 (or ALN-PCS which I know nothing about) comes out, I don’t believe there is any targeted approach available for reducing LDL particles. However, if you focus on preventing the oxidation of LDL then the whole LDL count issue may become moot because OxLDL and Nitrous Oxide have… Read more »
MachineGhost
Guest
0

Very funny! I meant NITRIC oxide. 🙂

MachineGhost
Guest
0

And I forgot to add that all cause mortality is lowest with total cholesterol around 220. So total cholesterol below 200 is a misguided and indirect attempt to lower LDL particles.

yankyoakum
Irregular
0

I was same, it is genetic, also had hypertriglyceridemia, 800 or more. Poisoned by statins, CPK level went through the roof, like 5K or more.
Ended up having bariatric surgery 3 years ago, Duodenal switch. Now at 63 I take nothing except a vitamin daily and have for the first time in my life cholesterol and triglyceride levels at 120/130. Would never have found out about this but was at a party and a guy had this done. His bloodwork had been exactly like mine. Don’t understand why more people don’t look at this.
Amazing

barksducks
Irregular
14
Cholesterol and its role in human health is still badly misunderstood. There is respectable medical research that puts lie to the idea that dietary cholesterol plays any role at all in cardiac health. (Look for yourself by googling “cholesterol myth”. You will be a convert before you reach the bottom of the first page.) The companies creating drugs to treat “high” cholesterol are no different than the snake-oil salesmen of old, but behemoth drugs like Lipitor are already ingrained into consciousness. And it certainly does lower your cholesterol! But it didn’t need lowering in the first place. If and when… Read more »
crossroads49
Irregular
35

I just found out that I was guaranteed to(have the opportunity) to win the Publishers Clearing House Sweepstakes.

backoffice
Irregular
210

Since Ed McMahon passed away I lost the excitement of checking the envelope, so it goes file 13.

Alastair Macdonald
Guest
0

Jan,
With your PCH winnings and my share of the Nigerian prince’s money he’s giving me just to use my checking account, we are going to be REALLY RICH !!!!

Sally
Guest
0
Statin drugs, one of the biggest money makers for Big Pharma ever! Just remember, It is all about the money, and not about what is best for you. If I go to my doctor and complain about an illness, you can just see him going through a list of drugs in his head to dispense. A few drugs will help, such as knocking out an infection. But overall, drugs do more harm than good, and cause you to need more drugs to counteract the negative effect of the first drugs taken. It is better to not let yourself get in… Read more »
dcohn
Irregular
177
Most Doctors are wonderful people and very caring. We clearly have several here but unluckily just like everything else the brainwashing kicks in pretty heavy. I assume most doctors on this board recall their days as residents and the no sleep routine they were put through. Similar to military training. This had to have an effect in your unconscious mind. We do not know when the media is training us to think a certain way if we are always watching. Nuff said I already sound like a looney to most I assume. I stopped watching commercial TV 5 years ago… Read more »
salita44
Member
3

I have just now joined your service and am excited to see all of these interesting comments. I was just about to fall for Marc’s Lightening service, when I began to dig a little on google and found you! You’ve all saved me! Looking forward to your service and future light and knowledge. : )

timw
Irregular
1

Invest in Altria, but don’t smoke. Double your returns, good health and money on the backs of the stupid. Politely, it’s ironic, less politely, it’s criminal.

David B.
Member
850

Certainly not criminal to invest in Altria or my 95.5 year old mother would have been in jail long, long ago.

Gr8Full!
Irregular
10833

$MO #WTF? http://www.stockgumshoe.com/2016/07/microblog-w-t-f/ David B, Your mother and mine were born within a month of each other. 🙂 http://investor.altria.com/phoenix.zhtml?src=topnav&c=80855&p=irol-irhome #RuleOf72 #Income
#8thWonderOfWorld ~@H0U3

David B.
Member
850

Just saw this Ben as I don’t follow the Gummune as closely as you. My Mom born 12/24/1920 and smoked from age 18 to 83. She is still alive and in good shape. I need a good retirement plan : )

soul
Irregular
0
Lichtenfeld has raised his head again with this same pitch for Lightning Trend Trader. He has taken a different approach this time by tucking the link to his promo in an e-mail from Investment U (an arm of Oxford Club) with the headline “What Happened With This Biotech Could Happen Again in 2016.” Includes a word for word repeat of “Dr. Phillip A. Sharp, Nobel Prize-winning MIT biologist and ‘Senior Statesman’ of biotechnology, called the initial discovery of the technological breakthrough being utilized by this company ‘the most important and exciting breakthrough of the last decade, perhaps multiple decades.’ “This… Read more »
evoh
Member
0

Just speed read the comments. Take a look at the 2016 insider trading. It seems to be perculating in 2016.

Harvey
Guest
0

I just check ALNY and it is at $58, did it split?

Kurt B.
Guest
0

I got “The Pich” in the mail yesterday. Rather than plunking down $1.475 Kilodollars, I hit Google, and did find ALNY as the most likely target, before I found this site. Interestingly, as of today, 25 May 16, ALNY is up sharply, $4.79 to $62, and it makes me think… the Pitch went out in a mass mailing in the last 2 days or so. I wonder how many people did in fact sign up, pay big $$, and pushed the stock higher, with no other news whatsoever on it.

Vance
Guest
0

I think that after Thursday’s key reversal “bear” bar….it looks like an appealing short term put option play to me.

rlockr
Member
0

Now they are charging $1750/yr – glad I checked with stockgumshoe first!

grobb1934
Irregular
17

I wonder how Mark feels this week after to stock dropped 50% ?

macaries
Member
9

Marc is pushing subscription with a cure for alzheimer’s now something about lab trials that made genius mice

takeprofits
Irregular
383

This is just another “lifestyle disease” that wouldn’t even exist without a lousy diet, which the pharmaceutical industry hopes to cash in on, but safe, natural cures have already been identified and restored people to full mental health.

David B.
Member
850

Myron are you seriously calling Alzheimer’s Disease a “lifestyle disease” caused by a lousy diet?? You claim that folk can be cured by “natural cures??” Perhaps you need to watch the recent 60 Minutes report on how early onset Alzheimers is passed down through generations of families.
My grandmother suffered from Alzheimers and I’m quite offended by your non-scientific claims.

takeprofits
Guest
0
I am sorry if I offended you Dave, I never knew your grandmother, so I was not casting aspersions on her lifestyle, but in turn you have made me very SAD, in the sense that your mind is apparently made up and you don’t want to be confused with FACTS contrary to your beliefs. You state that my claim (admittedly broad and non specific) is non scientific, but are you sure YOU have looked at all the available scientific evidence objectively yourself? Could it be that you have heard only one side of the story and jumped to conclusions based… Read more »
David B.
Member
850

Genetics has a lot more to do with Alzheimer’s than “nutritional deficiencies” but have at it Myron. I’m sure it’s my “closed mind” that is getting in the way. I just hope that you don’t have a loved one who has to struggle with this terrible disease.

takeprofits
Irregular
383
Dave, with respect, you accuse me of being un-scientific and then come back with a statement that” genetics have a lot more to do with Alxheimers than ‘nutritional deficiencies” with no evidence to back it up. You are certainly entitled to your opinion, but it is just that, based on what evidence? Genetics is simply the accumulated deficiencies of generations of less than optimal nutrition, it had to start somewhere for some reason. The brain has certain nutritional needs just like any other organ of the body and our modern diets of processed and fractionated foods with added preservatives grown… Read more »
lexx
Member
0

Hi Myron. The to shortly shy away from the topic, What ever happened to the utakeprofits@gmail (Beta Test). I sent youu 2 emails and no response. Is that still you your future endeavors??
Lexx

takeprofits
Irregular
383

Patience, I am running behind on my E-mail reading, sorry I must have missed yours, but yes the program is still a go.