Marc Lichtenfeld “Bets His Paycheck” — “GMS” Stock revealed

What's being teased as a "guaranteed double" by Lightning Trend Trader?

This article originally appeared on July 22, 2015, and the bulk of it has not been updated or revised since. The meat of the ad is essentially the same, and if Lichtenfeld really “bet his paycheck” on this stock (which was and is Alnylam) on July 22 he’s so far lost about 65% of that paycheck… though he would have had similar results with betting on any biotech stock at that time, since 7/22 was only about a week removed from the all-time peak in the biotech index.

A second version of the ad back in November had a different intro, implying that the company would surge because of an announcement at a “billion-dollar facility” in Orlando in the first week of November — the “billion-dollar facility” is the Orange County Convention Center in Orlando, where the American Heart Association meeting took place from November 7-11. The shares didn’t really move based on anything that happened that week, the data was more or less positive but it wasn’t a key moment for that particular drug (ALN-PCSc). The stock has generally been acting like a 2X leveraged play on the broader IBB biotech index in recent months, since November it’s down about 40% while the broader biotech group is down 20%.

There is a lot of data coming this year, so the story of Alnylam’s attempt to get RNAi drugs approved is likely to continue to evolve — they’ll have data released mid-year for a few of their programs, and the stock is down a bit over the last few days mostly because (as I interpret it) one of their earlier-stage drugs is not proving to be as effective as some investors had hoped and might be a complementary therapy instead of a first-line therapy. They posted an update and summary of the “data rich” year to come with their quarterly update here.

So with that intro, I’ll send you back to our original article about Lichtenfeld’s teaser, which started running almost a year ago… I still have never owned the stock, and don’t personally intend to get involved in this kind of multi-billion-dollar long-term science speculation. Enjoy!

—from 7/22/15—

A lot of readers have chimed in with questions about this latest ad from Marc Lichtenfeld — it’s a pitch for his higher-end newsletter service called Lightning Trend Trader, published by the Oxford Club, and he’s got a nice big promise to get your attention — not only does he “guarantee” that you’ll have (the opportunity to) double your money in his favorite pick soon (“starting August 30”), but he’s also “betting his paycheck” that this double will happen.

None of which really matters, of course, it’s just a way to get attention by demonstrating his conviction that the stock will be a big winner. Nearly every newsletter company of any size offers at least a short-term money-back guarantee, and many of them use these kinds of “I’ll guarantee you a 100% return by X date” promises in their ads, and that feels comforting… but they do not, of course, guarantee to “make good” on that guaranteed double. In this case, Lichtenfeld’s publishers will, if he fails to generate a 100% gain for you in this stock (or give you a few chances at 100% gains in the next year), give you… another year of the newsletter for free.

Which, of course, is no skin off their nose — if you’re calling out of anger and looking for a refund, you’re not going to renew anyway, and adding another free subscriber adds no marginal cost to a newsletter’s business… nothing wrong with making the guarantee, and Lichtenfeld may end up being right, but don’t make the mistake of assuming that these “guarantees” mean it’s a surer bet than any other investment idea — it’s just a marketing tactic, and every stock needs to be understood and evaluated on its own merits before you can think about buying it.

OK, lecture over — what is the stock Lichtenfeld is pitching? It’s in the hot RNAi space but he doesn’t use that term, since it would perhaps make it too easy to identify the stock — he renames this and calls it “Gene Mutation Silencing (GMS)” and says that his favorite GMS stock is “the most profitable stock opportunity I’ve found in my 20 years in the markets.”

Here’s a bit from the ad:

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“It’s a business that just picked up seven different revenue streams that could be worth $329.8 million each… It just received favored legal status that gives it a monopoly for over seven years…

“It’s sitting on a mountain of cash (more than $1 billion) and has ZERO debt.

“I calculate revenues are set to jump as much as 3,733% (or more).

“And beyond all that, the company is in control of what is perhaps the biggest development in medical history.

“Dr. Phillip A. Sharp, Nobel Prize-winning MIT biologist and ‘Senior Statesman’ of biotechnology, called the initial discovery of the technological breakthrough being utilized by this company ‘the most important and exciting breakthrough of the last decade, perhaps multiple decades.’

“This thing is so good…

“I’m going all-in, betting my paycheck that it will give you the chance to – at minimum – double your money starting August 30.”

Sounds exciting, right? He gives lots of examples of biotech stocks that he says he picked for his subscribers, generating 100% plus returns in recent years on big short-term stock moves — presumably most biotech-focused newsletters have had at least a few such winners, given the incredible 400% return the average biotech stock (as represented by the biotech index ETFs) has generated over the past five years.

And, as with all exciting biotech ideas, Lichtenfeld has a couple catalysts in mind for this one that he thinks will spike the price higher…

“The fact is, two key events are quickly approaching that could send this stock doubling in the year ahead.

“The first catalyst will occur as early as August 30, the second in early 2016.

“I’m essentially guaranteeing you’ll make money.

“I’m so confident in this that I’m offering to WORK for FREE if you don’t see the opportunity to make a certain amount.”

OK, so I can see why the biotech investors who’ve found a home here at Stock Gumshoe are excited about the idea of this one — what is it?

I’m not going to force you to sit through my examination of the entire ad, which got awfully long and involved in trying to describe his “Gene Mutation Silencing” science without actually mentioning RNAi, but you can check out the whole “presentation” here if you’re curious. The big push is that he sees them making huge earnings from each of what are mostly orphan drugs treating rare diseases, seven drugs that it has in clinical development now (plus eight more in preclinical development), but then he goes on to pitch this “August 30” catalyst for what he implies might be the “Most Lucrative Drug of All Time” (OK, he used a question mark at the end of that… but still).

“Breaking News Coming August 30…

“The GMS company is expected to make a very important announcement on that day.

“It involves a drug that treats a cholesterol condition that directly affects more than 71 million Americans.

“Now… to give you some idea of how important cholesterol drugs can be… consider that Pfizer company’s Lipitor is the highest-grossing drug of all time.

“It’s made $131 billion for Pfizer.

“So there’s a lot of money to be made in this field… if you can produce a drug that truly works.

“And that’s what has me so excited.

“On August 30, our GMS company is set to release the data on its drug.

“And let me tell you, I’ve already seen the numbers… and they are impressive.

“Levels of low-density lipoprotein cholesterol – or “bad cholesterol – are down as much as 57% for patients taking the drug.

“And tests show ‘no serious adverse effects.’

“On August 30, it’s going to release this positive data….

“… the company might have THE premier drug in a $19 billion-a-year market.”

And just in case that wasn’t enough, he tosses a few more clues on the pile — that it might get get bought out by one of the giant pharma companies, and that Genzyme bought 12% of the company, and the CEO has been buying shares, adding $950,000 worth to his holdings in January.

And the second catalyst, coming in “early 2016” he thinks, is that the stock could be added to the S&P 500. That’s possible, I suppose — I haven’t checked to see whether it meets the basic criteria for public float and liquidity, but it probably does, and it’s definitely big enough with a market cap over $10 billion.

So yes, we do know who this is — Lichtenfeld is teasing Alnylam (ALNY)

I know, again. ALNY is the poster child for RNAi and “fountain of youth” stocks, and has been an irresistible target of teaser campaigns for years, from the Oxford Club and others. We recently re-posted an article from 2013 about the “Magic Keys to Immortality” when the Oxford Club first started touting this company, and Michael Robinson teased the stock for his Nova-X report a couple months ago as well.

That first pitch, from the Oxford Club two years ago, was nicely timed — the stock was around $30 now and it’s now at about $130, so that’s a 300%+ gain during a time when the broad biotech index, as represented by the IBB ETF, was up “only” 125%.

And yes, the clues still match perfectly in the ad, though the short-term impact from their cholesterol drug is likely to be quite muted compared to Lichtenfeld’s excitement over the “August 30” news. They do have a drug that has shown a very powerful ability to reduce cholesterol levels, but that’s in patients who have Hypercholesterolemia, extremely high cholesterol levels that almost guarantees heart problems. This is an area where there’s critical need for treatment, but a small number of sufferers, typical of orphan drugs (I didn’t check to see whether this particular drug, ALN-PCS and the subcutaneouo ALN-PCSsc, has orphan status from the FDA). When Lichtenfeld tosses out the 71 million number and the Lipitor sales numbers, and dreams of blockbuster drugs surge in your head, that’s assuming that this drug moves on from their very small-scale orphan treatment of people with extremely high cholesterol and gets used more broadly at some point in the future — 71 million is the number usually tossed around for the number of people who have “high cholesterol” … the kind of folks who are told to maybe take a statin, exercise, and improve their diet, not the folks with Familial Hypercholesterolemia (there are other varieties as well) who live in fear of having their first heart attack before they become teenagers.

There are other drugs that are far ahead of ALN-PCS in treating Hypercholesterolemia, particularly the monoclonal antibody PCSK9 inhibitors that seem to be on the doorstep of getting approved by the FDA (Sanofi/Regeneron’s Praluent, which will probably be approved this week, and Amgen’s Repatha, which was approved in Europe yesterday and is looking for an FDA response in a month or so). I don’t know if they’ll turn out to be better or not, but they’ll probably be in use several years before ALN-PCSsc since that drug is still in Phase 1 trials. It’s true that they expect to have some results available from that trial by “mid year” as of their last announcements, so perhaps that’s what the August 30 date points to, but that’s not going to generate real revenue immediately. That particular drug is partnered with The Medicines Company (MDCO), and it did indeed achieve excellent results in the first Phase 1 trial of ALN-PCS back in 2013 (that’s where the 57% reduction in LDL cholesterol number comes from)… presumably Lichtenfeld (or his copywriter) is implying that he already knows the results of this current trial because the prior trial was successful — I can’t imagine he actually has any inside information on the trial results of the ongoing trial, since that would be illegal. Even implying that he knows how the trial is going in the ad is pushing it a bit, frankly.

Not that ALN-PCS is the most important drug for Alnylam — I don’t want to imply that this $10 billion company is trading just based on one Phase 1 trial. They’ve been pioneers in RNAi and have partnerships with several big pharma companies — their lead drugs, including one in Phase III trials, are aimed at TTR-Mediated Amyloidosis and you can see the full pipeline here.

Beyond that, you’re on your own — folks here have looked at ALNY many times over the past couple years, our biotech columnist Dr. KSS commented on their progress and valuation back in May and the stock comes up in his discussions about RNAi from time to time. I’ve learned to avoid getting too detailed with biotech companies because the valuations have little to do with financials or business prospects and everything to do with science and sentiment — and I am not going to become an expert on the science, so the more I write about these stocks the more I make mistakes. I’ll leave it to you to discuss. Enjoy!

P.S. So… are the folks who subscribe to Lightning Trend Trader for $1,495 because they’re excited to learn about this stock going to be mad when they learn that it was previously a special report stock heavily touted by the $149 Oxford Club Communique for most of the past two years? Seems a bit odd that they’re using the same stock to push these two different letters, and that the $149 Communique promo has still been circulating as recently as last month.


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macaries
Member
macaries
February 26, 2017 7:32 am

Marc is pushing subscription with a cure for alzheimer’s now something about lab trials that made genius mice

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takeprofits
Irregular
February 27, 2017 1:41 pm
Reply to  macaries

This is just another “lifestyle disease” that wouldn’t even exist without a lousy diet, which the pharmaceutical industry hopes to cash in on, but safe, natural cures have already been identified and restored people to full mental health.

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David B.
David B.
February 27, 2017 2:22 pm
Reply to  takeprofits

Myron are you seriously calling Alzheimer’s Disease a “lifestyle disease” caused by a lousy diet?? You claim that folk can be cured by “natural cures??” Perhaps you need to watch the recent 60 Minutes report on how early onset Alzheimers is passed down through generations of families.
My grandmother suffered from Alzheimers and I’m quite offended by your non-scientific claims.

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takeprofits
Irregular
February 28, 2017 12:06 pm
Reply to  David B.

I am sorry if I offended you Dave, I never knew your grandmother, so I was not casting aspersions on her lifestyle, but in turn you have made me very SAD, in the sense that your mind is apparently made up and you don’t want to be confused with FACTS contrary to your beliefs.

You state that my claim (admittedly broad and non specific) is non scientific, but are you sure YOU have looked at all the available scientific evidence objectively yourself? Could it be that you have heard only one side of the story and jumped to conclusions based on a prejudiced source? I have a question for you to consider, would you go to a GM dealer to get an objective opinion on the merits of a Ford, or vica versa?

In case you have never heard this one before, your mind is like a parachute, it only works when it is OPEN!

You need to get BOTH sides of a story and carefully weigh the evidence of each parties claims. It is TRUE that certain health problems may run in families for generations, not just Alzheimers, but there is an element of that not usually discussed by those citing the evidence. In the Bible it says that; “I will visit the sins of the fathers unto the 3rd and fourth generation” and that is corroborated by objective researchers who have discovered that since every EFFECT has a CAUSE, whether that be contaminated water, polluted air, similar dietary habits, exposure to chemicals in work places and so on, in other words a similar environment is the common denominator in certain diseases existing for generations.

For example, suppose a family has been in the coal mining business for generations and they all end up with lung cancer, do you blame faulty genes or breathing coal dust?
Here I can provide some anecdotal personal experience to make my point. My wife and I BOTH had a mouthful of rotten teeth by the time we were teenagers so logically if that were due to bad genes our children should also have had bad teeth. Well guess what, cause and effect manifested itself. All 5 of our children had perfect teeth with no cavities into their 20,s. WHY, because we didn’t allow them to drink pop loaded with sugar or feed them the usual junk foods and candy etc. If that makes no sense to you then you need to study the lifetime work of Dr. Weston Price who studied generations of different cultures all over the world and their dietary practices. In other words, change the environment and you change the outcome! A person MAY be predisposed to certain health risks, but a change in lifestyle can change the outcome.

With the risk of offending you further I will cite another cliche; “you can lead a horse to water, but you can’t make him DRINK! So in spite of your skepticism I WILL provide you with some evidence of my assertions that cites hundreds of scientific papers on the subject from famous doctors at prestigious universities, whether you choose to read them with an open mind is up to you. Brad Lemely is a published author and health researcher who has devoted his life to research and education on health through natural means, and while I have not made it my life’s work, I am also an objective researcher who strives to gain the FACTS without prejudice and am well informed, but not infallible.

Maybe Brad’s article will change your mind, but even though my lifestyle changes cured my diabetes BEFORE discovering Drad’s work, it rings a bell of TRUTH I can not deny based on my extensive studies in nutrition over a lifetime of personal experience and experimentation. Hope this URL works for you but if not try googling “natural cures for alzheimers”

https://pro.naturalhealthresponse.com/p/NHS_miraclemolecule_1216/ENHST279/?email=utakeprofits%40gmail.com&a=13&o=44999&s=51059&u=131049&l=469822&r=MC2&vid=xVPZgv&g=0&h=true

Just so there is no doubt as to where I am coming from, let me state categorically that I do not believe that the orthodox medical establishment is the “GOLD STANDARD” of health care as they portray themselves, they are NOT experts on health, they should more objectively be labeled as “DISEASE managers” they excel in emergencies and certainly save lives in many situations, but they completely fail in their mandate to; “first of all do no harm” when the 1st thing they do is reach for the prescription pad as they have been TRAINED. Their primary role is dispensing dangerous and harmful drugs which at best should be a last resort. Even my own doctor has admitted that ALL drugs have side effects.

A true health professional is one who seeks to work with nature to identify causes and nutritional deficiencies and seeks to educate people on what lifestyle changes are needed to alleviate a particular bodily malfunction.

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David B.
David B.
February 28, 2017 6:06 pm
Reply to  Myron Martin

Genetics has a lot more to do with Alzheimer’s than “nutritional deficiencies” but have at it Myron. I’m sure it’s my “closed mind” that is getting in the way. I just hope that you don’t have a loved one who has to struggle with this terrible disease.

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takeprofits
Irregular
March 1, 2017 5:55 pm
Reply to  David B.

Dave, with respect, you accuse me of being un-scientific and then come back with a statement that” genetics have a lot more to do with Alxheimers than ‘nutritional deficiencies” with no evidence to back it up. You are certainly entitled to your opinion, but it is just that, based on what evidence? Genetics is simply the accumulated deficiencies of generations of less than optimal nutrition, it had to start somewhere for some reason.
The brain has certain nutritional needs just like any other organ of the body and our modern diets of processed and fractionated foods with added preservatives grown on depleted soils to begin with and sprayed and fertilized with artificial chemicals simply do not build or support healthy cells and tissues.
Apparently you do don’t get the FACT that every effect has a CAUSE.

YES Alzheimiers is a terrible disease but at least I am open minded enough to know what to do should I ever encounter the disease in someone I know because I have studied the scientific papers and seen the evidence and testimonies of people who had severe cases of the disease and to-day are completely normal without taking any drugs. So you apparently believe that Alzheimers has no cause and some people are just unlucky enough to develop the disease because they are genetically so disposed and you are just waiting for the pharmaceutical profession to cook up the right mix of chemicals to CURE the disease, which makes about as much sense as saying a headache is caused by a lack of aspirin when it may be as simple as constipation or lack of drinking enough water. You didn’t even have the courtesy to tell me whether you were able to access the information on the Internet and whether the evidence offered was convincing, so yes, I have every reason to believe you are closed minded and probably didn’t even attempt to check it out.

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lexx
lexx
March 1, 2017 2:01 am
Reply to  Myron Martin

Hi Myron. The to shortly shy away from the topic, What ever happened to the utakeprofits@gmail (Beta Test). I sent youu 2 emails and no response. Is that still you your future endeavors??
Lexx

takeprofits
Irregular
March 1, 2017 5:58 pm
Reply to  lexx

Patience, I am running behind on my E-mail reading, sorry I must have missed yours, but yes the program is still a go.

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