This article was originally published in June of 2022, when the “secret” stock teased was around $3. The shares have fallen to about $1.70 now, but the ad is still in heavy rotation and there continue to be waves of questions from Gumshoe readers about this “$5 Stock That Could Make Apple The Next EV Giant,” so we’re re-posting our solution here. What follows has not been updated or revised since June 21, 2022 (and the ad is also unchanged, for the most part — it’s still dated “April 2022″… it’s only the email intro about “Apple just hired a 20-year veteran executive from Lamborghini” that’s sort of new, though that hiring announcement was also made back in July of 2022).

Luke Lango over at Investorplace has yet another infomercial out for us, pitching his Innovation Investor newsletter with the kind of video we’ve seen over and over before, emphasizing his high-tech connections that give him an edge when it comes to picking the next big thing… and, of course, with the focal point of his video presentation being a briefcase on a pedestal that holds the secret he has brought down from Mount Investorplace in the wilds of Baltimore, Maryland.

Things seem a little desperate in the newsletter world recently, with a big subscriber drop this year coming off of probably the best two years for investment newsletters ever, so they’ve discounted Innovation Investor to $29/year now (“retail price” $199, though I don’t think I’ve ever seen them sell it at that price, it’s usually $49-69 or so), another salvo in the arms race we’ve been seeing of newsletters going lower and lower with their “entry level” letters to try to get people (and credit card numbers) in the door. These “front end” newsletters that are pitched as mass-market advice don’t tend to make much money anyway, they’re primarily there to feed the marketing machine — you use a $30 or $60 newsletter to get people used to the idea of paying for investment wisdom, and then as soon as you figure out who those people are who are willing to pay something, you pound them with relentless ads for $1,000 and $5,000 letters and package deals to get the better wisdom.

Investorplace is part of the MarketWise family of newsletters that Porter Stansberry built up through partnerships and acquisitions over the past dozen years, and which really perfected that marketing funnel, so you can bet that they’re testing different “acquisition” prices at all of their brands (Stansberry, Casey, Palm Beach, etc.).

(A little back story, in case you’re interested: Stansberry was an aggressive young copywriter and analyst who built his business as an offshoot of Bill Bonner’s Agora newsletter empire, starting in the late 1990s and early 2000s — at the time, Agora looked like a loose network of different publishers who focused on investing and politics, and was affiliated with and/or owned a chunk of almost every financial newsletter outfit other than the Motley Fool. Stansberry quickly outgrew and eclipsed its former parent, even became the publisher of Bill Bonner’s stuff eventually, and a few years ago they bought Investorplace, which was mostly known as the home of Louis Navellier (not his mutual funds, which pretty much always stunk, but his newsletters). What became MarketWise (MKTW) grew quickly over the past few years as they added newsletter collections from Jeff Brown, Whitney Tilson, Joel Litman and Marc Chaikin, among others, and then went public through a SPAC merger in 2021, which makes it the only investment newsletter publisher that lets us see behind the curtain a little bit, so that’s why we know the business is not doing so great right now… and meanwhile, Porter and Bill Bonner and many of the other original Baltimore pundits and teaser-meisters have moved on from running the business. Or even writing for it. Both Porter and Bill still feel compelled to share their opinions and investing ideas, it appears, so they have left the empire and gone back to their roots with new, smaller subscription businesses hosted on Substack (Porter’s recently been pitching some natural gas stocks for his new Porter & Co. business, for example), eschewing the massive marketing and fulfillment machine they built… though Porter, at least, is still a large shareholder in MarketWise. Mr. Stansberry seems to have “retired” at just the right time, like so many people during the Great Resignation of the past year — MarketWise reported a 10% drop in paid subscribers last quarter, and a 47% drop in billings, as investors suddenly got afraid of investing again after the frenzied trading fun of 2021… though we needn’t cry for them, they are still profitable).

But anyway, what was I saying? Oh, yes, they’re trying to refill the hopper at the top of the marketing funnel, bringing in more new folks for Luke Lango’s Innovation Investor, and the bait that they dangle is the hope for 40X gains from the “Apple Car.”

And what does that briefcase hold on the dais next to Luke Lango during this video? Apparently it’s a “dossier” about that Apple Car — he calls it “The Project Titan Prospectus: How to Cash In on Apple’s Next Potential Trillion-Dollar Product.”

This is not the first time we’ve been teased with the idea of the Apple Car, of course — that project has long existed in the back halls at One Infinite Loop in Cupertino, though it has gone through some ups and downs internally. Apple is always super-secretive, but their electric car project, which has indeed long been called Project Titan, was rumored to be in discussions and development back in 2015 and 2016, then it faced the knife in 2019 when they fired 200 employees from the project and lost some of their leaders to Ford and other companies, now it’s widely reported that the project has been reorganized and is back in development, with the latest rumors at 9to5Mac hinting at a push to develop a product by 2025.

Here’s how Lango pitches that on his order form:

“Apple is getting ready to unveil a product that could completely transform the way we think of Apple as a company forever.

“A device that may be the last technological marvel from the mind of Steve Jobs…

“One that my research suggests could be 10X bigger than the iPhone… MacBook… and iPad… COMBINED.

“Of course, I’m talking about a fully autonomous Apple Car…

“And it lies at the center of a transportation revolution Bloomberg predicts will grow a whopping 19,254% over the coming years!”

And in a further “blast from the past” for us here at Stock Gumshoe, Luke Lango is pitching the big winner as one of Apple’s possible suppliers… not Apple itself. For many years, the rumors about iPhone release updates were all about which semiconductors and parts would be built in to that secretive device’s latest version, making or breaking companies like Qorvo (QRVO) or Skyworks Solutions (SWKS) or other little providers whose order books would balloon from a big iPhone deal. And Lango sees that same thing happening with the Apple Car.

I guess the logic makes some sense, there are hundreds of parts in an iPhone, which is sold in massive volume, more than 200 million units per year. About 20-30 of those parts are identifiable microchips or sensors of meaningful importance that get called out in “teardown” reports once the new phones are released, and sometimes those companies are small enough that their presence in the iPhone is a big deal. A Tesla Model S, which is presumably similar in basic ways to the potential Apple Car, includes about 2,000 parts from outside suppliers… and many of them will be largely commoditized, since tires and seats and vinyl panels and mirrors can be made to spec by a dozen or so major auto parts suppliers, and Tesla can bid those out to various suppliers to reduce costs, but perhaps a few of them are unique enough to give that parts supplier a bit of a leg-up from Tesla’s ~700,000 cars produced in a given year.

Apple’s not going to build anywhere near that many cars per year, one assumes, if they build an Apple Car at all, particularly since they’re brand new to this business, so it would have to be a pretty unique and special part for there to be a real economic impact to the supplier, since anyone who would be a supplier to the Apple car is also trying to be a supplier to the other 80 million cars that are built in a year around the world… but one never knows, it’s also possible that an Apple connection could also give a startup a little bit of a halo of attention, attracting other carmakers and/or investors, even if the order flow from what would presumably be a small Apple Car startup project would not be large enough to make a big financial splash on that supplier’s income statement.

This is how Lango puts it:

“No doubt it’d be a smart decision to buy Apple stock today… Warren Buffet recently just bought $600 million worth!

“But remember, there’s a bigger opportunity lying under Wall Street’s radar…

“One that I believe could give early investors the opportunity to cash in on far larger gains than by simply holding Apple alone.

“With how big Apple is… even growing just 2X seems like an unachievable feat.

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“But for the smaller suppliers who end up partnering with Apple… 10X gains or more aren’t out of the question.”

Yes, Warren Buffett did report that he had added to Berkshire Hathaway’s investment in Apple in the first quarter, buying about $600 million worth of shares when the stock dipped into the low $150s in late March, but at that time he also said that he had stopped buying pretty quick, because the shares popped back up. Apple’s shaer price has since fallen another 10%+ below that level, so who knows, maybe he’s been doing more “buy the dip” since — Berkshire owns less than 10% of Apple (about 5.6%, as of March 31), so they don’t have to report every single trade, which means we won’t know more until Buffett says something, or until the June quarter’s 13F deadline hits in mid-August. As of the last update, Berkshire owns about $123 billion worth of Apple shares. Which means, to put that buy in context, that Buffett’s $600 million buy in March was about the same level of commitment as a person with a $25,000 stake in Apple buying one more share for ~$130.

I keep wandering off track here, what was the point?

Oh, yes, that Lango is pitching a supplier who he thinks will make us rich from the Apple Car.

Which supplier, you patiently enquire? Well, for that we’ll have to head to the clues… what hints does Lango drop about this little company?

More from the ad:

“I’m talking about a potential backdoor play for a shot at massive 40X gains that won’t come from simply owning Apple stock.

“Instead…

“These explosive gains could come from investing directly into the company I believe could become one of Apple’s primary partners in this new global gold rush.”

And he is careful to say that he’s basing this partly on rumors…

“My contacts in Silicon Valley are currently buzzing with excitement about the key technology this company could supply Apple with…

“And if they do end up working with Apple, they could turn the global auto industry on its head.

“Let me make one thing clear though: none of this is officially announced yet…

“And I have no information that isn’t publicly available.”

So whatever could it be? Is Apple going to somehow become a breakthrough battery innovator?

Nope, the Apple Car would indeed be electric, but presumably they’ll use pretty much the same battery technology as everyone else… this is mostly about the other hot trend in vehicles, autonomous driving… more from the ad:

“… when Tim Cook finally takes the stage and goes public with Project Titan…

“He’s going to unveil a product that’ll be at the intersection of two massive megatrends taking over the world today.

“The first megatrend, as I’ve said earlier, is electric vehicles…

“And the second?

“Artificial intelligence.”

So if you’re playing “teaser bingo” we’ve got the “backdoor play,” the “secret supplier,” and now we can throw in “electric vehicles” and AI.

Which means that I bet you’ve probably already jumped to the conclusion that Luke Lango is pitching one of the things that makes autonomous cars possible: sensors. And especially LiDAR sensors, which use lasers the same way radar uses sound waves, to map out the world around a moving car and give the AI “brain” of the car the opportunity to learn from and react to its surroundings. Like, by not running into stuff.

And you’re right, of course… here’s where Lango starts teasing one of those LiDAR suppliers…

“I predict the biggest gains will come from investing in the one tiny $5 tech company that could help make the Apple Car a reality!

“I believe this company could provide a key piece of tech the Apple Car needs to become a truly autonomous vehicle…

“Because it’s going to be what allows the autonomous Apple Car to SEE….

“Surprisingly, this tech is already being used in our iPhones…

“And two former Apple engineers…

“Actually left to build this company and start applying it to AVs!

“That’s why I believe the Silicon Valley tech firm they started is a shoe-in to become a vital Apple Car supplier.”

What other hints do we get about this company that will be making “eyes” for the potential Apple Car? Here you go…

“… they have over 25 Apple alumni working for them.

“Just last year, they added a former Apple senior executive to their advisory board.

“Right now, they have no official affiliation with Apple…

“But I don’t think it’d be surprising for Apple to have a bias towards partnering with a company…

“Filled and run by Apple alumni who’ve already proven that they’re able to work on the level of quality that Apple is known for.”

OK, maybe. I’d hesitate to get too sentimental about Apple’s relationships with its suppliers, they tend to apply a lot of pressure on their partners and be pretty cutthroat about making sure they aren’t ever dependent on one supplier (they even started designing their own radio chips when they got angry about the royalties Qualcomm was charging), but perhaps having an “in” will help.

What else does Lango say about this company, which we presume is a LiDAR sensor supplier? Here are a few more tidbits:

“The AV tech that this company provides is top of the line….

“TuSimple, an autonomous trucking company…

“Has already used this company’s tech to build, on average, 35,000-pound semi-trucks that can drive down 65 mph highways without a single human driver behind the wheel….

“NASA is using their tech to support the next generation of lunar and planetary exploration…”

OK, so that’s more than enough for the Thinkolator — Lango is pitching Aeva (AEVA), which is one of the flood of LiDAR companies who came public via SPAC mergers over the past couple years. It was indeed founded by a couple Apple engineers, and has recruited more Apple veterans since, and they are also working with NASA on a LiDAR sensor that can help map the lunar surface, and with TuSimple on sensors for their planned autonomous Semi trucks (though like most of the automakers, TuSimple is not committed to one LiDAR supplier, they’re testing others as well — including Aeye (LIDR)).

and yes, whaddya know, AEVA is down below $5 a share. Just like pretty much all the LiDAR companies, none of whom have done well in the wake of the collapse of growth stocks last Fall. Here’s a chart of all of the LiDAR hopefuls I can think of who went public before last September (two others, Cepton (CEPT) and Quanergy (QNGY), have gone public more recently). All of them, with the exception of Microvision (MVIS), came public through a SPAC merger, with a valuation built on their relationships with auto manufacturers and their predictions of scaling to profitability around 2025 or 2026. (MicroVision was a mini-projector company, sometimes teased as a penny stock over the years, which shifted to the sexier LiDAR business when that started heating up). That’s AEVA in purple, more or less in the middle of the pack and down about 70% over the past year, but nobody in this business is particularly beloved at the moment.

The good news? Aeva still has a pretty good chunk of cash, they had more than $500 million in cash coming out of their SPAC deal in early 2021, and they’ve only spent about 20% of it, so as of March they still have $415 million in cash. That’s why they look kind of bargain-ish if you just look at the price/book ratio, they’re only valued at $700 million today, despite that cash hoard… though we should recall, of course, that they are planning to spend that money, not give it to us. Analysts expect them to burn through $100 million a year, roughly speaking, and to go from about $9 million n revenue this year to $33 million next year.

That’s about a year delayed from what they envisioned in their SPAC presentation in November of 2020 — at that time, they thought they’d have $35 million in revenue in 2022 and $75 million in 2023, with profitability coming in 2024 as larger commercial orders come in and they hit $286 million in revenue, but with the big boom coming in 2025 when they hit $880 million in revenue and $347 million in Adjusted EBITDA (on their way to $3 billion in EBITDA in 2030). We shouldn’t be surprised by the push-back in revenue growth, it now appears that all of the LiDAR suppliers (and most SPAC merger deals in general) were being pathologically optimistic in their projections — as should have been expected, given that all the incentives were lined up to make a deal, not to make a good deal.

AEVA’s claim is that their LiDAR system measures velocity better than existing systems, giving them “4D” perception (3D plus speed), with higher resolution than competitors. They’ve released their first commercial product, the Aeries II, which is supposed to be starting deliveries about now, and they’re trying to expand into industrial automation as well, with a Nikon partnership (one of the co-founders worked at Nikon before Apple), and they think they can reach “scale” manufacturing at the end of 2022.

So… will one of AEVA’s secret potential customers end up being Apple over the coming years? Maybe. Will they win out over the competing LiDAR sensors at the seven or eight pure-play LiDAR companies, and over the dozen or so other LiDAR products from other auto suppliers? I have no idea. They are reasonably well set with cash to get them through the next couple years, but it’s mostly going to be a waiting game to see if they get any meaningful orders… or if automakers decide that it’s important to have the “4D” silicon photonics LiDAR sensor from AEVA, or if they’re happy to opt for other LiDAR sensors that have a longer track record of use or different features. I’m not particularly interested in trying to bet on one winner in this group, the one that has held up the best so far, Luminar (LAZR), probably still has the best industry connections and reputation, but they’ve gotten clobbered over the past year as well, and are also at least several years away from reaching the scale that could justify their current valuation.

In general, when there are a dozen suppliers that I can name, and when they each claim superiority in one way or another, in an industry that is still at least a few years from generating high-volume sales, my guess would be that the suppliers are going to get pitted against each other, and prices for LiDAR sensors are going to continue to collapse. That’s not likely to be a great environment for these startups like Aeva (AEVA)… but, well, sometimes disruption does happen, sometimes small suppliers do become innovative leaders, with products that are genuinely better than the competition even if I am not expert enough to discern that… and sometimes little companies can ride a big contract to industry leadership and massive rewards. I wouldn’t look for the Apple Car to be at a dealership near you in the next couple years, or to have much impact on Aeva’s income statement, but, well hope springs eternal in the human breast.

Feeling more hopeful than yours truly? Love a LiDAR story, whether it’s Aeva or someone else? Excited about buying an Apple Car someday? Let us know with a comment below… thanks for reading!

Disclosure: Among the companies mentioned above, I own shares of Berkshire Hathawawy. I will not trade in any covered stock for at least three days after publication, per Stock Gumshoe’s trading rules.