Jimmy Mengel has pitched pot stocks several times before, but now he’s upped the ante and is launching a marijuana-only newsletter service called The Marijuana Manifesto… which is probably as good a sign of a market top as we could hope for, but we’ll see.
In launching this service, which he’s selling for about $2,000 a year, he’s promising great riches starting with the impending legalization of marijuana in Canada… and he’s hinting at three specific stocks that he calls “Green Rush” plays.
So… what’s the deal? Well, he starts with that April 20 assertion:
“On April 20, leading government officials are set to make an explosive announcement.
“A legal move that will singlehandedly…
“Unleash a $150 BILLION untapped market…
“And send three tiny pot stocks surging for historic 1,000% gains or higher, virtually overnight.
“Forbes writes this one event ‘will make investors extremely wealthy.’
“Troy Dayton, CEO of the hedge fund ArcView Group, says ‘new millionaires and potential billionaires are about to be made.’
“And in anticipation of this fast-approaching event…
“Government Insiders Are Moving Their Money Into Cannabis… And Seeing Bigger Profits Than Their Salaries”
And yes, that April 20 date refers to Canada… so this is what’s really enticing folks to subscribe to Mengel’s service:
“On April 20, The Doors to the $200 Billion Pot Market Will Be Blown Off The Hinges…
“On that Thursday, the Canadian Parliament will convene for its first spring session…
“Prime Minister Justin Trudeau will walk to the podium… calmly approach the mic…
“And in one fell swoop he’ll declare the end of marijuana prohibition throughout Canada.
“Sparking a 17,400% sales surge that will mint all-new millionaires.
“Within 24 hours…
“200 marijuana stores will open
“$2 million in taxes will be generated
“And certain well-positioned pot stocks will explode for 1,000% gains or higher virtually overnight.”
All this based on the estimate that the Canadian cannabis market could grow from the current $126 million in sales to $22 billion over the next three or four years. Which, of course, would be a lot of growth.
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And yes, the liberal government in Canada will almost certainly introduce new marijuana legislation fairly early in the legislative session this year — April 20 is, of course, the annual cannabis “holiday” inspired by the “420” codeword popularized by the weed counterculture in California in the 1970s. Canada did announce to the UN that it intended to pursue changing its marijuana laws on April 20 of 2016, but there’s certainly no guarantee that the legislation will be either introduced or voted on on April 20 this year.
It’s certainly big news both in Canada and in the cannabis community — and among marijuana investors, who have the same verve and vigor of rare earth metals and 3D printing investors from a decade ago, and rather more than the stevia investors of three years ago. There’s a relatively sober article here on the likely timeline for changes to the Canadian law (summary: it is likely to change, but it’s not clear whether it will be regulatory or legislative and it will probably include lots of details that could easily take a year or more to go “live”).
So what are the stocks that Mengel thinks can bring huge profits your way? Let’s check the clues…
“Green Rush Play #1: “Canada’s $5.5 Billion Marijuana Monopoly”
“If there’s one play I recommend you own for Canada’s imminent legalization, this is it.
“It’s the undisputed monopoly of their legal pot market, yet I doubt most investors have ever heard of it.
“The Financial Post calls it ‘Canada’s first cannabis unicorn.’ And it has a $1 billion valuation, yet still trades for cheap.
“In fact, I consider it the single best marijuana opportunity in all of North America.”
OK, some of you will already know the name of this one — need a few more clues? Here’s a little bit:
“It’s Canada’s first licensed cannabis distributor and manufacturer
“Its revenue surged 453% in just 12 months, even with the Canada cannabis market still very limited…
“It’s the first marijuana producer to be listed on a major stock exchange
“And it controls one-quarter of the Canada cannabis market, with potential to only get bigger.
“Right now, the company’s revenues are tiny — a mere $12 million.”
The “$5.5 billion giant” part of the spiel comes from doing simple math — they say that Canada’s pot market will grow to $22 billion, and that this company currently has roughly a quarter of the market, so naturally in 2020 it will have a quarter of that market… that’s $5.5 billion.
That’s some very precise logic for an imprecise world — and even on that front the numbers don’t quite match up, since they say the stock has a $12 million revenue number out of the current $126 million Canadian cannabis market, which is about 10%, not 25%.
But, to be fair, that $12 million number stopped being accurate about a year ago — here Mengel is teasing Canopy Growth, which moved up to the main Toronto exchange and now has the ticker WEED (the US OTC ticker is still TWMJF). This is a conglomerate that primarily includes the big Tweed marijuana brand in Canada, as well as several established medical marijuana growing and selling operations.
It’s generally appealing because it has some brand power, and because Canada seems likely to be a regulated environment for cannabis, with some sort of control over the amount that can be produced and sold, and that favors the established players. That doesn’t mean the financials make sense — this is still a growth story that’s based on a regulatory regime and a consumer demand picture and marketplace that we don’t really know much about yet, so there’s lots of guessing to be done.
Currently, most of the guessing is on the optimistic side, which is why this is referred to as the first “unicorn” in Canadian marijuana even though that term doesn’t really apply