“Warren Buffett’s Up and Coming Retailer” Street Authority

By Travis Johnson, Stock Gumshoe, April 27, 2008

StreetAuthority is calling a recent buy of Warren Buffett’s “The little stock that could make you rich” — it’s apparently a retailer that Buffett “recently” bought, to the tune of 14 million shares (I’m afraid I can’t sing along at that volume, but I do always like to know what Buffett’s buying).

The wise and all-knowing Gumshoe readers know, of course, that most Berkshire picks could simply be sleuthed out by reading the Berkshire annual report … or, for smaller holdings, the quarterly filings they’re required to make about their investments with the SEC.

Perhaps that’s why Paul Tracy at Street Authority is asking for only forty bucks — a $39.95 subscription to their Market Advisor will get you the “special report” about Buffett’s favorite retailer and some other favorites (that $39.95 is for one quarter, not a year, just FYI).

So what clues and tantalizing tidbits do we get for our sleuthing pleasure?

“With just 2% of the U.S. market under its control, this innovative little retailer has an unprecedented growth opportunity ahead of it.

“The company virtually looms over its predominantly “mom and pop” competition, with approximately 90 superstores clustered in and around some 40 metropolitan areas.

“Aside from being way bigger than their smaller rivals, these superstores also bring a completely unique format to their industry. Designed to feel like a big-box style discount retail chain, they’re obviously trying to emulate the blueprint used by mega-retailers Wal-Mart, Home Depot and Target, to name just a few.”

That’s enough to identify these guys, but here’s just a bit more to get your juices flowing:

“And did I mention the basket of financing options this company has available right on the premise of each facility? It not only provides a full-ray of choices through its own internal finance unit, this firm has also partnered with multiple, big-name third-party lenders, enabling customers to choose from a virtual smorgasbord of finance packages, while at the same time reducing its own credit risk.

“Given this type of savvy business acumen it’s easy to see why market share is expected to approach 20% in the coming years.

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“Plus, with locations currently in only about half of all U.S. states, this company can simply grow by opening up new superstores in under-served markets. And that doesn’t even take into account the organic growth that will likely continue by stealing market share from smaller rivals, who can’t even come close to matching the superstore shopping experience.”

OK, so that’s quite enough to feed into the all-knowing Thinkolator, which quickly spits out our answer:

Carmax (KMX)

I haven’t looked at this one for a while, so I took a quick gander this morning: It ain’t cheap, with both forward and trailing PEs in the 20s. I guess this shouldn’t be much of a surprise — Buffett, regardless of his reputation as a “value” investor, doesn’t generally buy really beaten down stocks. He’s more interested in a “great company at a good price” than a “decent company at a rock bottom price.” He appears to care much more about sustainable competitive advantage (the “moat” concept you’ve probably heard of), and a company that’s easy to evaluate that spins off a lot of cash and doesn’t need to borrow money from him.

Recent earnings took a bit of a hit, so they didn’t grow last quarter, and sales growth is in the mid-single digits, so this is one you’ll probably need to dig into to find the value — and I expect that value would be in continued consolidation of a fragmented industry, since there aren’t really any more big used car chains with national ambitions these days (there were a few ten years ago, but Carmax seems to have outlated them).

What really makes this smell like a value pick is its industry — used cars. What on earth could be a simpler and more easily understood business? It might even be recession-resistant to some degree, since maybe folks are more likely to buy a used car than a new one if incomes are down a bit. And who knows, they might pick up a lot of inventory on the cheap if the car financing business sees the same upticks in bad loans and reposessions that we’ve seen in housing. Pundits are predicting that other areas of financing will fall soon — credit cards, auto loans, commercial mortgages, etc., so I don’t know enough to predict whether that would be a good thing or a bad thing for KMX. The company doesn’t really carry any corporate debt, but I don’t know how much of their business is the finance arm, and what kind of exposure they might have there.

Interestingly enough, car retailing might have gotten a little boost by Barron’s over the weekend — they spoke glowingly of Asbury Automotive because of its high dividend and reasonable valuation, and did a quick once-over for many of the others in this space (AutoNation, etc.). These are all primarily new car dealers, but it’s interesting to note that they’re all significantly cheaper than Carmax if you use most of the more common valuation metrics (PE ratio and the like). The article’s here if you’re interested (subscribers only).

So … maybe one that’s worth some research, if you’re a fan of simple, expanding businesses or of retailers building into national exposure, or even if you’re just a fan of Warren Buffett. There are some other compelling institutional investors on board, too, including the Dodge and Cox funds and Davis Advisors, though Berkshire Hathaway is at the top of the list with nearly a 10% stake. As best I can tell, this one hasn’t reached a level of importance that it’s even individually mentioned in Berkshire’s annual reports — at least not recently — but I imagine our friend Mr. Buffett must be a Gumshoe reader (right?), so perhaps he can add his detailed rationale below.


OK, well then, anyone else interested in or disgusted by Carmax? Feel free to opine away. And toss in an answer to the poll below, if you don’t mind.


full disclosure: I own my own tiny piece of Berkshire Hathaway, and have money in two Dodge and Cox mutual funds.



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April 27, 2008 3:21 pm

Tired of hearing about how good buffet it. He could buy anything and just because he buys it, it goes up right away. Buffet is a has been

February 4, 2014 5:44 pm
Reply to  Lonny

It is not worth the money for the amount of info your getting. Theirs not always a connection between quality and price. It is the case when the quality of financial information brings positive returns than theirs a reason for paying extra for advice. Warren buffett is a great value investor. But he is from the past when their were many undervalued stocks around unlike today. With big private equity firms always on the lookout for a great company thats a excellent value its really hard to find great value stocks nowadays. Its more likely that the value stock that you buy will be taken away from you before the stock has a chance to make big gains by private equity by the management of the company or the controling family of the company going private is something that takes away the chance for investors in the stock to have a decent chance at large gains.

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farley 5
farley 5
April 28, 2008 8:46 am

KMX 5 out of 5 positive technical indicators, should hit $27.50. A peek at supply and demand shows a nice downtrend reversal at the breakout near $20. Fundamentals look good with RJ&A rating it outperform with a $27 target. CSFB only likes it long term. Must hold $18.50.

April 28, 2008 10:48 am

I heard this morning WB was buying Wrigley.

April 28, 2008 11:14 am

he’s old, but not a has been. and yes he bought wrigley with mars inc.

April 29, 2008 11:46 pm

Ralph, I heard Mars was buying Wrigley? Todays Philly area paper, ?

Gravity Switch
April 30, 2008 9:17 am

Yep, Mars is buying Wrigley — Berkshire gets a little piece of equity, but is mostly just helping to finance the deal. Buffett was brought in to help finance, probably because credit is otherwise so tight and he can make a decision in an hour, sign on the dotted line, and deliver a truck full of cash wherever you want it the next day — it’s not really “his” deal. But this is another example of why people love to own Berkshire Hathaway at times like these — if you’ve got cash right now, everyone comes to you first.

👍 7
who noze
November 30, 2008 9:44 am

i dont think buffett is a has been he buys in heavy quantity that he makes deals w// the corporations that givwe him an edge i think you can say shrewed is a more reliable term

james moylan
March 12, 2011 12:59 pm

I have a web site where I research stocks under five dollars. I have many years of experience with these type of stocks. I would like to recommend a chinese stock that I think is attractive here the company Sutor Technology Group symbol [SUTR] Limited engages in the manufacture and sale of steel products primarily in the Peoples Republic of China. It offers hot-dip galvanized steel, prepainted galvanized steel, acid pickled steel, and cold-rolled steel products. The company sells its products to customers who operate primarily in the solar energy, appliances, automobile, construction, infrastructure, medical equipment, and water resource industries. It also exports its products to Europe, the Middle East, South America, the United States, southeast Asia, and Hong Kong. The company is based in Changshu City, China. the stock trades around 1.90 cents a share. I think the stock could get to 10.00 dollars a share over the next five years.

Read more: http://www.beaconequity.com/hot-chinese-stock-bai

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