“The Next Franco-Nevada: Chaffee Revisited”

By Travis Johnson, Stock Gumshoe, December 2, 2008

[note: this older piece is from 2008, The “Chaffee Royalty” is being teased again in 2013 but it’s pointed at different stocks, you can see our updated take on the new version of the ad here.]

If anyone was in danger of forgetting the “Chaffee Royalties” teaser ad for Chris Mayer’s Special Situations newsletter, the marketers have saved you from that precarious perch — I’ve seen this ad more in the past week than in the last several months combined, so it must be taking hold once more.

Why? Well, the ad is all about mining royalty companies — the firms that invest in mines by putting cash up front, and getting a percentage of the output in return without having to deal with the hassle of operating a mine. And the world is abuzz with panic these days, which makes everyone think of silver and gold, which spurs some interest in mining companies. Or at least, that’s the only logic I can come up with for the sudden resurgence of this ad — and maybe it’s just that it’s a very well-written letter that is persuasive and effective. If you want to see my original writeup from way back in the merry month of May, click here for that and a taste of the hard sell for this teaser company.

I’m sure most of you have seen this ad, and many of you probably remember my previous comments about the ad and the company Chris teases in the ad. He says he’ll send a special report to you entitled Big Mining Money Without the Big Risks: How to Build Resource Royalty Wealth While You Sleep, and he talks about his key discovery/recommendation being the company that he believes is the “next Franco-Nevada.”

So let’s take a little look at where both of those companies are now, and what the potential might be.

Just to recap: Franco-Nevada pioneered the mining royalty business, and built a huge stream of royalty income from hundreds of mines and fields (they invest in gas and oil royalties, too) — they were taken over in 2002 by Newmont, which is why the teaser is accurate in saying that they were out of reach of ordinary investors for a while, but they went public again just about exactly a year ago. During that past year, the shares have actually held up extremely well, especially when compared to many other companies in the mining business — they went public at about $15, and you can buy shares today for $16.50 (both Canadian — the current US price is closer to $13 on the pink sheets).

That stability is probably due to a pretty diversified portfolio of assets, and the good operational performance of several of the mines that they participate in — output volume improved as commodity prices fell, so revenues didn’t collapse as they have for some other commodity producers. The company has no debt and pays a tiny dividend of about 1.5%, and it’s capital requirements are pretty much limited to whatever they choose to buy in the way of more royalty streams (they do have some expenses for a few working interest ownerships, and for taxes on mine output).

It’s not cheap, but the company is very well respected and stable, which clearly attracts some investors. If you annualize their current earnings, you’d get 40 cents a year and a PE ratio of about 30, which is arguably not a good way to think about a royalty company — they like to use EBITDA, which gives them 34 cents per share in the last quarter.

Franco-Nevada effectively gets a bit less than half of its royalty income from precious metals in recent quarters, and the same amount from oil and gas — both have been beaten up, certainly, particularly over the last several months, but they haven’t performed as poorly as some commodities. There are other royalty streams from other commodities, but those two sectors dominate, with the Goldstrike mine that got Franco-Nevada started still playing a major role in their income.

And interestingly for the other stock that was teased in these ads, Franco-Nevada announced in their last quarterly earnings filing that one of their mines had closed production due to low prices.

Why interesting? Because that mine was Falcondo, a nickel mine.

And the “next Franco-Nevada”, which is what Chris Mayer calls International Royalty Corp (ROY) when he’s teasing it as his next great investment idea, is currently very heavily leveraged to a massive nickel mine.

International Royalty Corp has had a much worse year than Franco-Nevada — it was trading for over $6 during the winter, was just a shade lower in the $5 range when I first saw this teaser ad, and is now down to a dollar and change ($1.18 as I type this). A far cry from the steady performance of Franco-Nevada, in part because ROY is a much smaller firm, but largely because ROY’s current performance is tied completely to one mine: the Voisey’s Bay nickel (and copper and cobalt) mine in Newfoundland.

While Franco-Nevada has big royalty participation in a slew of gold and oil projects, International Royalty has only a few royalties that are ac