Million-Dollar Contrarian Portfolio

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Dave
Guest
Dave

I have recently subscribed to the million-dollar portfolio because it offered a 90-day money-back trial. I have noticed a few disturbing things: (1) Responses to the “blog” are moderated, and 2 of my recent comments [mildly critical of the negative returns thus far considering that stops were not specified] were filtered out. (2) The investment returns are not honestly presented: only 10% of the $1M has been invested at an overall loss of about 12-13% last time I calculated it, but because the other 90% has been “invested” in short-term treasuries, that 90% (with minimal or no loss) is included… Read more »

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Dave
Guest
Dave

Update: now down about 15% in current positions (no gains in any of the current investments), and having ignored a 25-30% INcrease in the market, the MCP will need to appreciate substantially just to get back to where we would have been (had we not followed Martin’s advice a month+ ago to exit the market) and to recover current losses. The hype for subscribers is, in part, the intention to stay “flexible”, but flexibility was not in evidence during the current very substantial run-up in the market–not one iota of advice to gain from the run-up (the advice was to… Read more »

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momzilla
Guest
momzilla

Dave, I am sorry to hear about your experience. I was very interested in the million dollar contrarian portfolio because it sounded so good and I wanted to make up for some of what we had lost in our accounts. But after talking it over with my husband I did not do it. After reading the blogs, I was glad I didn’t. It was a too good to be true scenario for me. But my spouse broke it down for me like this. (I am NOT stock market savvy. Just a stay at home mom that saw Martin Weiss’ ad… Read more »

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UnderstandWeiss
Guest
UnderstandWeiss

There are some misunderstandings of this Weiss portfolio. The portfolio has apparently been gingerly dipping its toes in the short side (i.e. negative expectations) which turns out to have restrained the portfolio from larger losses. Weiss and Vogt’s expertise is understanding the big picture, the economy, and looking past the fluff presented by the dominant media. They are not week to week market timers, and they are sure to get that wrong like anyone else. There is no reason to expect them or anyone to have predicted that the last few weeks period would be a sudden melt-up in the… Read more »

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Gravity Switch
Admin

He owns at least a billion (with a B) shares, so selling five million is probably just something his accountant told him to do — or maybe he just wanted to buy a few new suits or another yacht. I wouldn’t assume that it means anything, though I don’t know Oracle well and have never owned the shares (unfortunately).

Bob S
Guest
Bob S

I am a charter subscriber to the Million Dollar portfolio. I have invested in some of the recommendations, but with all of them in the tank, have stopped doing so. I have to echo many of the critical comments above. It is likely I will cancel in the next several weeks. I am looking to unwind from some of these positions. I, too, think I finally understand how inverse ETFs work and now agree that we have no business investing in them for long term plays. Thanks “UnderstandWeiss” for noting this. There was an excellent analysis of the dangers of… Read more »

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stars1234
Guest
stars1234

I signed up only because of the 90 day money-back if I don’t like it. I’m about ready to request the return of my money. Hopefully, I will get it and without any hassle. So far all the rally opportunity has been missed. One of the stocks recommended seems to be doing okay, although that’s only because I bought more after a substantial decline after originally purchasing it on the recommendation–somewhat of timed, dollar-cost average. The same thing is true for a reverse ETF in the S&P 500. The initial buy turned out bad. With my own research, I picked… Read more »

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MikeW
Guest
MikeW

Thanks everyone. I too get Martin’s free email service. His MCP was too dear for me @ $1,500. Some people however, did catch this rally, notably Peter Grandich (his service is free) and Chris Weber. Incidentally, both Grandich and Weber have turned bearish again as of this past Friday (so maybe Martin will make up some lost ground).

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Gravity Switch
Admin

Hi Mohammad — no, sorry I don’t think I’ve ever heard of either. I’ve dipped my toe into a few Chinese ag companies over the last year or two, but don’t know those.

SnoopyJC
Guest

I answered his ad by asking what is their performance to date, and he wrote back that he is “down by 2.05%, but mostly still in cash”, so he must be down a pretty penny on the investments that he DID make!!

He’s excellent in his Macro views, but not in playing them properly in a dynamic portfolio – this is a very challenging market, though, especially with his self-imposed rules of giving his subscribers 2-days notice before he makes the trades!!
–joe

Dave
Guest
Dave

>>So far this should all be obvious — even to the whiners who expect perfection from everybody except themselves. So lets get to the less obvious.<< As a non-stop whiner about Martin and Claus’ failures in the MCP [and BTW I regularly whine about my own lack of investing smarts, nicely exemplified by my much-regretted decision to follow Martin’s advice and divest at the recent market bottom; and actually I do expect both Martin and Claus to be better at this game than I an–otherwise why would I fork over $1400 to get their advice?], I’ll continue the whine by… Read more »

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capcdoc
Guest
capcdoc

Another charter subscriber here. I have also been disappointed in the total miss of the recent 30% run-up in the market. Our short positions are still under water, the stock picks are barely positive (finally), and now they are recommending another short ETF. In the past I jumped on the recos (and paid the price), this time I will wait to get a hint on the the market direction before grabbing this short. If things don’t rapidly improve in next 2 weeks, I will bail.

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Gravity Switch
Admin

I see that promo is again making the rounds — that’s Groote Resources, I wrote about it here: http://stockgumshoe.com/2010/12/which-tiny-70-company-found-the-supernova-gold-mother-lode.html As far as I know there haven’t been any big developments of late about possible permits since some of the native population voiced objections about seashore surface mining late last year and drove the price down. It seems, like so many of these stocks, to be a pretty binary play — if they eventually get approval to mine in this spot the stock will be worth a lot more, if they don’t get approval it will be worth essentially nothing, and… Read more »

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Sam
Guest
Sam

First off, I would like to say Martin is a genius for calling the crash way before it happened. However, the new MCP that started in March 2009 was misleading and has cost me a lot of money for the following reasons: 1) One of his first war-room/free 1 hour marketing webinars (11 laws to bear market trading) was like screaming fire in a crowded theater when there was no fire. His first war room meetings took place when the Dow and S&P were at the bottom (around beginning of March). This scared me so much, I sold all of… Read more »

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Patrick
Guest
Patrick

I too am a charter member of the M-D C P. Unlike most of the people commenting above I’m not ready to pronounce judgement after only 2 short months. I do believe that Claus makes educated, well thought out recommendations and backs up his selections with great analysis and support. If your idea of a market trend is 1 week, 1 month or 90 days then this service isn’t for you. It was never touted as a trend trading program (whether day or swing) but an investment program based on fundamental research and the macro economy. If you disagree with… Read more »

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Koko LaRue
Guest
Koko LaRue

I subscribed on March 16’th 2009 and am currently still a member but am re-evaluating my subscription as I have 10 more days remaining to qualify for my 100% refund. Martin is very intelligent and perhaps a macro economic genius. He’s excellent at informing the subscriber in layman’s language what’s happening to and with the economy and what the probable economic and market scenarios will be as a result of actions taken by the government and others. That said he peddles his goods (stock market subscription services) in a Chicken Little ‘The sky is falling’ manner. Each new email bringing… Read more »

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Damien
Guest
Damien

Original member still with the program for now. I paid for lobster and got bottom feeding suction eel. Martin’s emails are like reading a horror story in National Enquirer. The only thing missing are the aliens. I can’t afford one of those family size underground nuclear bunkers he almost infers we’ll eventually need when society breaks down and the banks all close down with our money inside. You know, they’re called banking holidays. I don’t think I’ll be with them past Thursday. Not a single pick making money, not a one. 9 picks /9 losers and a 38% market gain.… Read more »

Gravity Switch
Admin

As I’ve noted with DEER recently as well, there’s no analyzing the price action on small cap Chinese stocks anymore — the stocks are extraordinarily jumpy on any news whatsoever, with most of the action coming from bloggers who allege fraud, with widely variable amounts of real analysis, and from company reactions to those allegations. And as with all the other Chinese reverse merger small cap stocks, it’s absurdly cheap if their accounting is legit, but none of these stocks are trading on fundamentals right now and that may be a pretty big “if”. I don’t know what the end… Read more »

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travisandjen@mac.com
Guest
travisandjen@mac.com

Based on the news reports and releases from the company – it appears that someone put out an advisory to short the stock based on totally erroneous information and to cash in on their own short position.

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Capcdoc
Guest
Capcdoc

Finally gave up on this one last week. All the picks are negative now except for the Treasuries! Yikes, how do you miss a 3 MONTH trending up market? The inverse ETFs are of course all down big, took a bath when I dumped them. As mentioned above, no specific price targets or stop loss levels have been provided, so the hits just keep coming. Claus is quite educated & very interesting, but the markets have their own logic and they have been almost 100% opposite of his vision.

Tom
Guest
Tom

This service wins the award for losing the most amount of money in the shortest time in strongest bull market in over 70 years. All this in under three months, thank you Martin and Claus. Edward Scissorhands would have done less damage to my money than the MCP did. If red is your favorite color than this service is right up you alley cause that’s all you’ll see for as far as you can see.

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Gravity Switch
Admin

Growth in these kinds of african infrastructure assets should be strong in general, I think, but I haven’t heard any specific connection to Lonrho — the last thing that I’ve seen in terms of them sniffing out new port business was the Ghana visit above, but I wouldn’t be surprised if they’re talking to lots of folks. I would be surprised if they build out the airline into another new country this year, given the huge headache that buiding out in Angola brought and the need to ramp up service in their existing hubs and invest in airplanes for the… Read more »

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John H.
Guest
John H.

I am an MDCP subscriber and like the others that have posted here have incurred losses. After initially investing in the first 5 recos, I have not invested in the last 3. While I can accept that no one can get everything right almost all have gone south at least at this point in time. Because of the long term strategy MDCP failed to take advantage of bear rally which if done would have helped mitigate the other losses and probably would have not caused such a reaction by many. Note I am not stating that he is wrong in… Read more »

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Kevin
Guest
Kevin

Don’t know what to say as others above have nailed it with their reviews. How do you miss the biggest rally in 70 years!!!! Martin scares the heck out of you in the webinar and war rooms about the sky is falling at Dow 7,000 and to SELL SELL SELL!!!! Claus tells you how the world is coming to an end and that he is not concerned about short term blips (bear market bounces) in the market and to trust his approach and strategy. So far, all of my inverse funds are in the red big time. What is the… Read more »

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Diane
Guest
Diane

Just look at my satisfaction reviews for this service and you’ll know exacly what my experience and feelings have been and are. Even from Germany almost everybody, except for Claus, realized that we had a serious bull market upswing in a bear market. Not after one month, not after two months, not even after three months did we participate in the upswing. I’d like to see Claus’s own personal portfolio compared to this Nightmare From Hell portfolio I currently own thanks to the MD-CP.

Gravity Switch
Admin

Not that I’m aware of — this is still effectively a startup company with no real revenue yet, and with the chance of hitting any kind of profitability probably coming next year. Both Sandstorm Gold and Sandstorm Metals and Energy adopted “shareholder rights” plans that are effectively poison pills against hostile takeover attempts, so that removes one potential catalyst (they could certainly still be taken over, but the company could fight it if they wished). I like the basic structure of the Terrex Energy deal, and it doesn’t change my opinion that these shares are reasonably priced, but since they’re… Read more »

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Barry
Guest
Barry

Well from what I hear from other members and see for myself the censorship of the MCP has started again. This sort of thing is NEVER good for either side. Has Kim Jung IL taken over from Claus?

Gravity Switch
Admin

Sandstorm Gold common stock is at SNDXF on the pink sheets and they trade in the neighborhood of a dollar or so right now. SNXXF should be the first tranche of warrants (60 cent strike, 2014 expiration) and trades lately in the 50-60 cent range, and SDXXF is the second tranche of warrants ($1 strike, 2015 exp) and trades lately in the 30-40 cent range. The strike prices are in US dollars for some reason, I think, and I still own both Sandstorm Gold and Sandstorm Metals, and the 60 cent warrants on Sandstorm Gold.

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j.t.
Guest
j.t.

I was eager to get into MDCP so as to preserve capital, trade the trend DOWN (Claus and Martin were mistaken here as trend headed UP the week before service began)and buy “down-trodden companies for pennies on the dollar” at the bottom. That was the strategy at the outset and I was all for it. But Claus and Martin, keeping their eyes straight ahead on the collapse to come, hugging their charts and statistics that supported the collapse theory, ignored the reality of the rally. I believe in the collapse theory too but all Claus’ choices, especially the inverse ETFs,… Read more »

Barry
Guest
Barry

Yet another day where the 8 positions, not counting cash, are down again. 8 for 8 down. However Claus has mental stops! I must have been mental for subscribing to this service. I’ll be calling them on Monday to request my refund. We now have 3 positions down double digits, one that was only recommended less than 10 days ago. The market is up 40% and rising and the portfolio’s performance is worsening. Even the long selections are losing money. This outfit wouldn’t last more than one week at Goldman Sacks or even AIG for that matter.

Lou
Guest
Lou

What a complete waste of money to be down on every single pick. Just had a war room and said he would buy the same exact portfolio today. Later he says that if the S&P holds above 961, he would have us sell some of our inverse ETFs. How does that work, we can’t do both. He just got done watching the market go up 40% and now he is think about selling our inverse funds? Great call there Claus, your timing is horrible. Also the only thing contrarian about this portfolio is they bet against the government and all… Read more »

dan
Guest
dan

The members above describe it best, this is not worth the money. Also Safe Money is another subscription which I am in the hole with all of its inverse ETF’s as well. They may be right from a macro prespective but they don’t know how and when to execute trades and make money. You don’t need to pay $1,500 to lose money, I can do that on my own. Actually, I would have won huge by not joining.

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j.t.
Guest
j.t.

Martin sent an email yesterday saying the 100% full refund period is extended an additional 30 days … a smart business move on his part as this will halt the stampede for the exit that was staring him in the face. They sure are confident the sky will fall so I’m staying to watch them prove it. Buy any more of their hot recommendations? Not me. Anyway, I don’t need my $1500 this very minute and I’m pretty sure Weiss Inc. is not going bankrupt before the refund period is up. Forgot to rate the service on previous post. Don’t… Read more »

Koko LaRue
Guest
Koko LaRue

As for the 30 day additional 100% money back guarantee I’ll say if it’s anything like the first 90 days performance I don’t know if I can afford to sustain another thirty days of losses on top of the current portfolio losses PLUS the loss of the MDCP’s $2500 2-year subscription fee PLUS the massive losses I realized on the stocks I sold at Martin’s behest in mid March of this year. Those stocks he had me sell are all higher than when I initially purchased them.

Gravity Switch
Admin

I did notice that, and the price went wacky for a little while too — I’m not aware of anything happening, pretty sure there wasn’t any big company news from any of their gold streamers or from them, but that kind of thing often happens when there’s a spike of news activity or a newsletter recommendation from someone who has a pretty big subscriber list. I haven’t done anything different with Sandstorm of late, and haven’t changed my opinion that it’s at least very fairly valued, it’s still my biggest personal holding. If you’re interested in leverage, the warrants on… Read more »

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jonny
Guest
jonny

Hi!

I cancelled my subscription 2 weeks ago! It’s a waste of time- NOT cause they don’t earn money! It’s because there’s no strategy behind! You buy inverse ETFs which ONLY are for short term trading, then buy consumer stocks and then you’ve mental stops!!?? I think Martin ignores anything except his doomed macro view…It’s not contrarian, it’s idiot….

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j.t.
Guest
j.t.

Maybe this comment belongs on the MDCP Forum? Anyway… MDCP has a blog … one of the benefits of membership as well as a selling point in their solitation literature. But the blog is censored!! My posts are not getting onto the board…bummer. Numerous complaints about censorship incidents are posted. Why does the censor post complaints about being censored but not the censored post that led to the complaint? But now that 4 of my posts were dumped and one was edited…the nerve !!…I have proof. Then, there are so many (80% maybe) angry posts about the portfolio’s poor performance…why… Read more »

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Koko LaRue
Guest
Koko LaRue

*********** I have decided to quit this service.************ The confirmation email I received when I joined says cancellations must be in writing. Has anyone here canceled their service to the MD-CP and did you need to do it in writing or will they let you do it over the phone? If a written notice to withdraw is need did they say an email or FAX was acceptable? Was anyone given a hard time by Weiss when they quit and did anyone have a problem getting their money back in a timely manner? Any problems anyone had please tell of your… Read more »

jonny
Guest
jonny

Hi Koko!

I left at the end of May/beginning of June! It took me 3 mails to get my refund! But I never got a confirmation from Weiss regarding my cancellation! That was a poor performance as well (not only the portfolio)!!! Just give an email notice via the MDCP email link…

Regards,

Jonny

j.t.
Guest
j.t.

Read today’s blogs and it seems that not all subscribers are getting a 30-day trial period extension. Hold the phone!!There’s something fishy here. Just what is going on within the gold-plated walls of the Weiss machine?

honeybobe
Member
honeybobe

Good point Howard, great write-up Travis. Recent activity wasn’t too impressive given the hype. My guess is speculators are worried about gold price in the short term, economy, yada yada. “Sell in May and go away” (at least for the summer)?

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Capcdoc
Guest
Capcdoc

If you want a refund, just CALL them. Support people are polite and efficient, no problems.

Dave
Guest
Dave

Capcdoc is right–call them. I have talked to them twice, and the “in writing” cancellation req’t is gone. I was extended for 30d as well. I would suggest calling them to find out exactly when your cutoff date is–they are happy to tell you. I will hang on thru the extra period just to see what moves Claus (the “Teutonic Titan”–thanks to the blogger who came up with that one) makes. It’s getting to be quite a comedy show. Poor guy. Well, we’ll love him if the market heads far enough south. Oh–and the latest! Weiss et al are now… Read more »

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Gravity Switch
Admin

Probably not very directly, though additional oil and gas offshore exploration in the area means more equipment, so some of that may benefit their Luba Freeport as it builds up as a regional logistics center for some of the big oil and service companies. They’re reportedly trying to expand to other ports as well, but I don’t think they’ve actually done so.

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C. D.
Guest
C. D.

With some regret, I called in to cancel my membership earlier this week. The refund showed up on my credit card within a few days as promised. The Weiss Group people were cordial and professional. Time will tell what the economic landscape looks like in six months, and whether the MDCP will have the last laugh. So the verdict really won’t be in until then. My reasons for unsubscribing: 1) It was difficult to see myself writing a $3500 check on my present credit card statement, paying 2 years in advance. 2) Knowing that earlier memberships cost $2500 for the… Read more »

Mark
Guest
Mark

Today I have four of eight picks down between 10% to 18%. For those with poor math skills like Claus that’s 50% of the portfolio. Another pick is down 9.2% so I suspect that by the close tomorrow I’ll have 5 out of 8 in the red. Every long position is DOWN and every short is DOWN and I don’t mean down in a good way for the shorts because that implies a good thing, like I shorted XYZ at $10 and it’s down to $8 giving me a 20% profit. No, I mean ,the price on the shorts are… Read more »

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j.t.
Guest
j.t.

CD,
4) The marketing of another membership club with another name.
What’s this? Didn’t receive my special email invitation so I’m in the dark. Can’t find anything on his website. Enlighten me, please. BTW, we blog participants will miss you too. Hope they miss me when I’m gone.

Gravity Switch
Admin

Yep, good third party estimates if the potential
for Anticosti Island — still very preliminary, but it will sure help them raise money to get some reserves booked.

And yes, I still own it — sorry, the portfolio list must have missed an update. Just FYI, I always write a note here on the site when I buy or sell.

C. D.
Guest
C. D.

j.t. ~~ correction ~~
4) The marketing of [the Weiss Wealth Event] – after the MDCP was promoted as the “most important decision” of your financial life.

There was a webinar, The Weiss All Weather Investing Guide, and Weiss Capital Management, Inc. referenced on this page:
http://www.moneyandmarkets.com/dont-buy-the-wall-street-spin-more-financial-storms-on-the-horizon-34214

john connor
Guest
john connor

Do they have a website? I can’t find it. Thanks for the info. If those estimates are even close is this thing going to really move in the future? They are talking billions right? I know, it early… 🙂

ste_lar1
Member
ste_lar1

Thanks Travis. I just read the ‘Travis’ personal buys section linked in the email to keep up with your portfolio. I realize your focus is less of a portfolio service and more insightful commentary on stocks, that said, it’s nonetheless a valuable service for your readers as it knowing your portfolio moves and the rationale behind them helps make better decisions.

Thanks a ton, love the site! It’s Sandstorm Warrants for me next !

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